突发！多国央行"新年第一枪"，全球市场2026年开门迎巨震？ 2026年首个交易日，全球金融市场即被多国央行政策的"新年第一枪"点燃。美联储暂停降息、欧洲央行释放鹰派信号、日本央行加息落地，叠加中东地缘冲 突升级，全球股市、汇市、大宗商品市场剧烈震荡。这场由货币政策分化主导的"开门黑"，不仅暴露了全球经济复苏的脆弱性，更预示2026年市场将进入高 波动、强博弈的新周期。全球央行"三向分化"：政策路径撕裂市场共识1. 美联储：降息暂停，通胀黏性成"紧箍咒"2025年末美联储连续第三次降息后，12月 议息会议释放明确转向信号：联邦基金利率维持在3.50%-3.75%，点阵图显示2026年仅预期降息1-2次。尽管失业率升至4.1%，但核心PCE通胀仍高于2.5%， 叠加特朗普政府关税政策推高进口成本，美联储主席鲍威尔坦言"需警惕二次通胀风险"。市场对美联储政策转向的预期迅速逆转，美元指数反弹至104.5， 十年期美债收益率单日飙升12个基点。2. 欧洲央行：鹰派突袭，欧元强势归来欧洲央行12月18日宣布维持利率不变，并意外上调2026年经济增长预期至 1.2%，释放"通胀黏性或需加息"的鹰派信号。欧元区12月CPI ...

【智通财经12月24日早间新闻精选】 1、习近平近日对中央企业工作作出重要指示。习近平强调，中央 企业要聚焦主责主业，持续优化国有经济布局，切实增强核心功能、提升核心竞争力。要立足实体经 济，强化关键核心技术攻关，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。 2、中央企业负责人会议12月22日至 23日在京召开。国务院总理李强出席会议并讲话。李强指出，中央企业要在推进重大基础设施建设中提 供强力保障，加快传统基础设施更新和数智化改造，适度超前开展新型基础设施建设。 3、全国住房城 乡建设工作会议12月22日至23日在北京召开。会议指出，在商品房销售上，推进现房销售制，实现"所 见即所得"，从根本上防范交付风险。 4、商务部新闻发言人就美针对无人机领域增列"不可信供应商清 单"事答记者问。商务部表示，美方以所谓"国家安全"为由，将所有外国生产的无人机系统及其关键零 部件等列入"不可信供应商清单"，中方对此坚决反对。 5、北京发放首批L3级高速公路自动驾驶车辆专 用号牌；可在限定条件下执行动态驾驶任务，实现最高80km/h的自动驾驶功能。 6、据报道，多位知情 人士透露，英伟达已告知中国客户，计划于明年2月中旬，即中国农历春 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Major global economies are expected to end their interest rate cuts by the end of 2026, with the OECD predicting only two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, bringing the rate down to 3.25%-3.50% [2] - The European Central Bank is set to begin its easing cycle in June 2024, with a total of eight rate cuts anticipated [2] - Japan is experiencing a unique tightening cycle, potentially accelerating rate hikes to counter inflation pressures from new government policies [3] Group 2: China's Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [4] - Despite the need for more aggressive monetary policy due to slowing economic growth, the central bank has remained silent on interest rate cuts, emphasizing long-term policy adjustments [5] Group 3: E-commerce and Delivery Standards - New national standards for food delivery platforms have been implemented, focusing on the rights of delivery personnel and ensuring fair labor practices [6] - The standards require platforms to calculate delivery times based on a maximum speed of 15 km/h for electric bike riders, which may impact delivery efficiency [7] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - The second-hand housing market in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showed significant increases in transaction volumes in November, driven by demand for affordable housing [8] - The overall market remains in a state of price-volume exchange, with some cities showing signs of price stabilization, but the recovery foundation is still fragile [9] Group 5: E-sports Industry Growth - The Chinese e-sports industry is projected to generate 29.331 billion yuan in revenue by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [10] - Live streaming continues to dominate revenue sources, accounting for over 80% of total income, indicating a reliance on consumer engagement [10][11] Group 6: Meta's Strategic Shift - Meta's CEO Mark Zuckerberg plans to cut the budget for the metaverse project by up to 30%, shifting focus towards AI and related hardware products [12] - The metaverse sector has seen slow technological advancement, leading to a strategic pivot towards AI, which presents clearer business opportunities [12] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a rebound, with significant gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts [14] - The trading volume increased significantly, indicating active market participation and a potential shift in investor sentiment [14][15]

Economic Data - In October, China's retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while industrial added value rose by 4.9% year-on-year[4] - The housing prices in 70 major cities in China experienced an overall decline in October[4] - The new energy storage installation capacity in China surged over 3000%[4] Market Trends - The U.S. and Switzerland reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on Swiss products from 39% to 15%[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 1.90 basis points to 3.606%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.71 basis points to 4.146%[4] Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,900.59, up by 0.13%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,147.48, down by 0.65%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,572.46, down by 1.85%[5]

Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Trends - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold reaching $4,113.26 per ounce, marking a 2.81% increase, while silver prices rose by 4.6% [4][2] - Domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 164% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 79.015 tons [5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a 2.45% increase in total gold trading volume, reaching 23,800 tons, and a 41.55% increase in trading value, totaling 17.68 trillion yuan [5] Group 2: Economic and Political Influences - The potential end of the U.S. government shutdown has been indicated by President Trump, which may positively impact market sentiment [4] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with expectations of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by December [5] - Historical patterns suggest that gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical tensions and economic conditions, with current risks for price declines being minimal [6] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones up by 0.81% and the Nasdaq up by 2.27% [9] - Analysts predict that the reopening of the U.S. government will lead to a surge of economic data releases, which could influence market dynamics [9] - Major Wall Street firms maintain a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks, citing strong corporate earnings growth as a key driver for future market performance [10]

Core Insights - The article critiques the trade war initiated by Trump, highlighting that it has worsened the U.S. trade deficit and failed to achieve its intended goals [1][5]. Trade Deficit and Economic Impact - The U.S. goods trade deficit is projected to reach $1.21 trillion in 2024, a 50% increase compared to pre-trade war levels in 2017 [1]. - The trade war has led to increased inflation, with the inflation rate rising to 3% in September, the highest since May [1]. - Tariffs have added approximately $1,500 in annual expenses for American households, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income families [1]. Employment and Manufacturing - The manufacturing sector has lost 42,000 jobs in 2024, marking the longest decline since early 2020 [1]. - The U.S. automotive industry has seen a decrease in export value by $10.8 billion compared to the previous year, impacted by competition from Chinese automakers and domestic strikes [1]. Agricultural Sector - U.S. soybean exports to China have plummeted from over $10 billion annually to just $2.5 billion in the first half of 2024, while costs for fertilizers and farming equipment have risen due to tariffs [2]. - Many farmers are relying on government subsidies to cope with the financial strain caused by the trade war [2]. Trade Agreement Analysis - The recent ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and China has not resolved core issues, as the U.S. still maintains a 47% tariff on Chinese goods [2]. - The agreement is seen as a temporary measure that does not address deeper conflicts such as intellectual property and market access [2]. Shifts in Trade Dynamics - China's reliance on the U.S. market has decreased significantly, with exports to the U.S. dropping from 20% in 2018 to below 10% [3]. - China has diversified its markets, with exports to Africa increasing by 56.4% and to Southeast Asia by 15.6% [3]. Technological Competition - The U.S. efforts to restrict technology exports to China have not succeeded, as Chinese companies have increased their self-sufficiency in chip production, raising the self-sufficiency rate from 16% in 2020 to 40% [3]. - U.S. companies like Nvidia and Intel have faced significant revenue declines in China, indicating a failure in the U.S. technology strategy [3]. Conclusion on Trade War - The article concludes that the trade war has not benefited the U.S. and has instead weakened its economic position and global influence [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and halt the balance sheet reduction reflects internal divisions and concerns about economic stability and inflation [1][12]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and the second consecutive month of cuts [4][12]. - Lower borrowing costs for banks may lead to reduced interest rates for mortgages and corporate loans, potentially stimulating economic activity and increasing wages [4][5]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction Halt - The Fed has decided to stop its balance sheet reduction, which began in 2022, where it allowed $6.6 trillion in assets to "naturally disappear" by not reinvesting in maturing securities [6][9]. - Starting December 1, the Fed will reinvest the principal from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bonds, signaling a return of liquidity to the market [7][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, financial markets experienced volatility, with initial gains in U.S. stocks and gold prices, but later corrections occurred after Fed Chair Powell indicated uncertainty about future rate cuts [12][13]. - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.55%, driven by strong performance from tech stocks like Nvidia, which saw a nearly 3% increase [12][13]. Group 4: Internal Divisions - The Fed is experiencing notable internal divisions, with dovish members advocating for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy, while hawkish members express concerns about potential inflation risks [15][16]. - The debate extends to the balance sheet strategy, with differing opinions on whether to continue reducing the asset size or maintain the current level to ensure market stability [16].

Group 1: Market Overview - On October 16, international gold prices closed above $4,300 per ounce, reaching a record high due to increased investor interest in gold as a risk hedge amid economic uncertainties [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline after initial gains, with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.63%, and Nasdaq down 0.47% due to concerns over bank loan issues and fraud allegations [1] Group 2: Corporate Developments - Nestlé announced plans to cut approximately 16,000 jobs, equivalent to 6% of its total workforce, and aims to save about 3 billion Swiss francs (approximately 26.8 billion RMB) by the end of 2027, leading to a significant increase in its stock price by over 9% [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The UK GDP showed a minimal growth of 0.1% in August, with July's data revised to a contraction of 0.1%, indicating ongoing stagnation in the service sector and presenting challenges for the Chancellor [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding expectations, which contributed to a drop in international oil prices to a five-month low, with WTI crude at $57.46 per barrel and Brent crude at $61.06 per barrel [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2] - After the key nodes at the end of October (trade conflicts, tech giants' earnings reports, Fed decisions), if the Nasdaq continues to rise, the market will enter the strong upward phase of the last stage of the bull market, but also the most dangerous top moment is approaching [1] 3. Summary According to Related Information Global Economic News - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in October and a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction in the coming months [1] - The US bank raised its price forecasts for gold to $5000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce in 2026 [1] - Google's parent company Alphabet will invest $15 billion in India over five years to build an AI data - center hub [1][2] - OpenAI plans to invest up to $25 billion in Argentina to build a data - center hub [1] - Goldman Sachs will limit employee growth and cut some positions by the end of this year and launched the "OneGS 3.0" strategy [1] Chinese Economic News - China's September exports were $328.5 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports rose 7.4% year - on - year, with the growth rates hitting multi - month highs [2] - The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0995, up 26 points, the first time since last November [1][2] - According to the HSBC emerging market survey, China is the preferred stock investment market, and 100 surveyed institutions manage $423 billion of emerging - market assets [2] Tech - related News - Huawei announced the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips, with computing power leading Nvidia by over a year [2] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] - Broadcom released the Thor Ultra network chip, strengthening its position in AI data - center network communication and competing with Nvidia [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent shift from aggressive interest rate hikes to rate cuts indicates a response to economic challenges, potentially leading to significant capital flows into China as investors seek more attractive returns [2][4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's policy has fluctuated from extensive asset purchases in 2021 to tightening measures, and now to a more accommodative stance with a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2023, reflecting concerns about economic strength [2][4]. - The Fed's balance sheet remains above $7 trillion, indicating a slow reduction in asset purchases while maintaining a low-interest-rate environment [4][10]. - Analysts suggest that continued rate cuts could weaken the US dollar, benefiting emerging markets, particularly China [4][10]. Group 2: Capital Flows to China - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed's rate cuts may prompt Chinese companies to sell $1 trillion in dollar assets and reinvest in renminbi, driven by changes in interest rate differentials [5][12]. - China's bond market is attracting foreign investment, with foreign institutions holding over 4 trillion renminbi in bonds, and significant trading activity recorded [5][10]. - The stability of Chinese government bond yields at around 2.5% compared to declining US Treasury yields makes Chinese assets more appealing to global investors [5][10]. Group 3: Global Currency Dynamics - Central banks are reportedly reducing their dollar reserves while increasing their holdings in renminbi, with 30% of bank leaders planning to increase renminbi allocations within two years [7][12]. - The weakening US dollar, which has dropped from a high of 114 to around 90, is expected to raise commodity prices, benefiting countries with strong currencies like China [7][10]. - The trend of increasing gold reserves among emerging markets, including China, is seen as a strategy to reduce reliance on the dollar and enhance financial security [7][12]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The US economy is projected to grow at around 2.5% in 2024, but consumer spending remains weak, leading to a cautious outlook on economic recovery [4][10]. - The ongoing US-China economic tensions, particularly in technology and supply chains, may influence capital flows and investment strategies [9][10]. - The potential for a "Pearl Harbor" event in the financial sector, such as a sudden devaluation of the dollar, is a concern for global markets, prompting countries to diversify their reserves [12][16].