结束缩表 美联储FOMC声明宣布将于12月1日结束资产负债表缩减，当前为每月减持50亿美元美债和350亿美元 MBS。在那之后，抵押贷款支持证券的赎回本金将被再投资于短期国债。 新华财经北京10月30日电（郭洲洋）当地时间10月29日，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点， 由4.00%-4.25%调整至3.75%-4.00%，符合市场预期，这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次 降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。投票结果为10票赞成、2票反对，其中堪萨斯联储主席杰弗里 ·施密德（Jeffrey R. Schmid）支持维持利率不变；理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）认为应降息50个 基点。 经济评估 可用指标显示，经济活动以温和的速度扩张。今年以来就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8月仍 保持在较低水平；更近期的指标与上述趋势一致。通胀较年初有所上升，仍处于相对高位。委员会的目 标是实现最大就业和长期2%的通胀。经济前景的不确定性依然较高。委员会密切关注其双重使命两方 面的风险，并认为近几个月就业方面的下行风险有所上升。 未来政策展望 为支持上述目标，并考虑到风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to reduce the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points due to a moderate expansion in economic activity and rising inflation [2]. - The decision reflects a balance of risks, with increased downward risks to employment noted in recent months [2]. Group 2: Voting Members - The members supporting the monetary policy action include Jerome H. Powell, John C. Williams, and several others, while Stephen I. Miran and Jeffrey R. Schmid opposed the decision [3]. Group 3: Asset Purchase Program - The FOMC announced the end of its balance sheet reduction program effective December 1, with current monthly reductions of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities [1][2]. - After this date, the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested into short-term U.S. Treasuries [1].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after a 9-month pause, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [2][3] - The dot plot indicates that 9 out of 19 officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, while 2 expect one cut, and 6 do not anticipate further cuts [2] - New board member Stephen I. Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead [2][4] Group 2 - Economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, with a slight increase in unemployment, although it remains low [3] - Inflation has rebounded and remains elevated, with the committee's goal being maximum employment and a long-term inflation target of 2% [3] - The committee will continue to monitor the latest information affecting economic outlook and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as necessary [3]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizes the importance of maintaining the independence of the central bank and its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Responsibilities - The primary responsibility of the central bank is to prevent economic downturns and hyperinflation, with monetary policy independence being crucial for its success [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve plays a vital role in managing liquidity in the financial system, which requires regular and precise adjustments [5]. - The Federal Reserve oversees the most significant financial institutions globally and sets different funding prices for borrowers, including other central banks [2][5]. Group 2: Miran's Background and Perspectives - Miran has served as the Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers and has extensive experience in monetary policy and macroeconomics, having studied at Harvard University [3][4]. - He has previously criticized the Federal Reserve's aggressive stimulus measures during the COVID-19 crisis and aims to base his decisions on macroeconomic analysis and long-term economic governance [1][4]. - Miran acknowledges the complexity of the Federal Reserve's functions and the importance of effective monetary policy for the economy's proper functioning and the maintenance of strong capital markets [5].

Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has shifted from the "Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) framework to a "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) approach, acknowledging that the previous strategy is not suitable for the post-pandemic economic environment[2] - The Fed has removed the "Effective Lower Bound" (ELB) as a core economic feature, emphasizing the need for a monetary policy framework that adapts to the current high inflation and high interest rate environment[2] - The long-term inflation target remains at 2%, but the Fed will not set specific numerical targets for employment[4] Employment and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, indicating that while the unemployment rate is at 4.2%, it masks underlying risks due to a slowdown in both labor supply and demand[3] - The Fed's focus has shifted from prioritizing inflation to addressing employment shortfalls, with a greater emphasis on preventive measures rather than reactive ones[3] - Powell noted that tariffs are likely to have a one-time impact on price levels, suggesting that the weak labor market will suppress inflationary pressures[3] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following Powell's dovish remarks, U.S. stock markets rose, bond yields fell, gold prices increased, and the dollar index declined, indicating strengthened expectations for a rate cut in September[3] - The report suggests that a rate cut in September is highly probable, with limited impact from upcoming employment and inflation data unless they deviate significantly from expectations[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflationary pressures from tariffs and a sharper-than-expected decline in the U.S. economy and employment[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting a routine review of its monetary policy strategy, with significant attention on the outcomes due to past controversies surrounding similar reviews [1][2]. Group 1: Review Focus Areas - The review will focus on the "long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement" and communication tools [1]. - The results of the review are expected to be announced by late summer, with hints provided during a recent meeting led by Powell [1]. Group 2: Potential Changes in Strategy - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the review may lead to a softening of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy established in late 2020 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may reaffirm its response to "dual deviations" from maximum employment during normal times, potentially downplaying the term "shortfall" [2]. - There is a possibility of reverting to "flexible inflation targeting" as the primary strategy, while retaining the option for a "compensatory strategy" under certain conditions [2]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Dynamics - Critics argue that the current strategy may have contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Powell and senior economists disagree [2]. - The implementation of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy coincided with unique global economic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have complicated inflation dynamics [2][3]. Group 4: Communication Strategy Adjustments - Adjustments to the Fed's communication strategy may have more significant implications than the informal abandonment of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy [4]. - Two specific suggestions for enhancing communication include providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and linking FOMC officials' economic and interest rate forecasts while maintaining anonymity [5].