当地时间周三，美联储理事提名人斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的听证会讲稿公布。参议院银行委员 会将于当地时间周四上午举行对Miran的确认听证会。 美国总统特朗普提名的这位美联储理事候选人誓言将维护央行的独立性，以及其"双重使命"——物价稳 定和最大就业。米兰在提前提交给参议院银行委员会的开场声明中说道，"在我看来，中央银行最重要 的职责是防止大萧条和恶性通胀。货币政策的独立性是其成功的关键要素。" 如果我获得确认，我将依照国会赋予的职责，忠实履行我的角色。我的观点和决策将基于我对宏观经济 的分析，以及对长期经济治理的最佳考量。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）是一个独立机构，肩负着艰 巨的任务，我打算维护其独立性，并尽我所能服务美国人民。 Miran也对美联储在双重使命之外的职能提出了一些监督问题，包括央行的资产负债表： 美联储监管着全球最重要的金融机构。它为借贷双方（包括其他央行）设定不同的资金价格。美联储资 产负债表的最终构成仍是一个开放性问题。 Miran听证会讲稿全文 以下为斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的听证会讲稿原文： Miran是总统经济顾问委员会主席、特朗普的亲密顾问，他 ...

Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has shifted from the "Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) framework to a "Flexible Inflation Targeting" (FIT) approach, acknowledging that the previous strategy is not suitable for the post-pandemic economic environment[2] - The Fed has removed the "Effective Lower Bound" (ELB) as a core economic feature, emphasizing the need for a monetary policy framework that adapts to the current high inflation and high interest rate environment[2] - The long-term inflation target remains at 2%, but the Fed will not set specific numerical targets for employment[4] Employment and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about the labor market, indicating that while the unemployment rate is at 4.2%, it masks underlying risks due to a slowdown in both labor supply and demand[3] - The Fed's focus has shifted from prioritizing inflation to addressing employment shortfalls, with a greater emphasis on preventive measures rather than reactive ones[3] - Powell noted that tariffs are likely to have a one-time impact on price levels, suggesting that the weak labor market will suppress inflationary pressures[3] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following Powell's dovish remarks, U.S. stock markets rose, bond yields fell, gold prices increased, and the dollar index declined, indicating strengthened expectations for a rate cut in September[3] - The report suggests that a rate cut in September is highly probable, with limited impact from upcoming employment and inflation data unless they deviate significantly from expectations[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflationary pressures from tariffs and a sharper-than-expected decline in the U.S. economy and employment[4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is currently conducting a routine review of its monetary policy strategy, with significant attention on the outcomes due to past controversies surrounding similar reviews [1][2]. Group 1: Review Focus Areas - The review will focus on the "long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement" and communication tools [1]. - The results of the review are expected to be announced by late summer, with hints provided during a recent meeting led by Powell [1]. Group 2: Potential Changes in Strategy - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the review may lead to a softening of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy established in late 2020 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may reaffirm its response to "dual deviations" from maximum employment during normal times, potentially downplaying the term "shortfall" [2]. - There is a possibility of reverting to "flexible inflation targeting" as the primary strategy, while retaining the option for a "compensatory strategy" under certain conditions [2]. Group 3: Implications of Inflation Dynamics - Critics argue that the current strategy may have contributed to high inflation during the pandemic, although Powell and senior economists disagree [2]. - The implementation of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy coincided with unique global economic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have complicated inflation dynamics [2][3]. Group 4: Communication Strategy Adjustments - Adjustments to the Fed's communication strategy may have more significant implications than the informal abandonment of the "flexible average inflation targeting" policy [4]. - Two specific suggestions for enhancing communication include providing alternative economic scenarios to highlight risks and linking FOMC officials' economic and interest rate forecasts while maintaining anonymity [5].