截至12月31日，全样本独立焦化厂焦炭日均产量62.7万吨/日，周环比+0.1万吨/日，247家钢厂焦炭日均 产量46.8万吨/日，周环比+0.0万吨/日，总产量为109.5万吨/日，周环比+0.1万吨/日。 【期现】 截至1月7日收盘，焦煤期货强势上涨走势，以收盘价统计，焦煤近月2601合约+51.5(+4.75%)至1135.0， 焦煤主力2605合约+68.0(+6.2%)至1164.0，1-5价差走弱至-29.0。S1.3G75山西主焦煤(介休)仓单1230元/ 吨，环比+0.0元/吨，基差+66.0元/吨；S1.3G75主焦煤(蒙5)沙河驿仓单1180/吨(对标)，环比+31.0元/吨， 蒙5仓单基差+16.0元/吨。 【供给】 截至12月31日，汾渭统计88家样本煤矿产能利用率79.76%，环比-2.89%，原煤产量805.56万吨/周，周 环比-29.17万吨/周，原煤库存222.15万吨，周环比+17.5万吨，精煤产量410.26万吨/周，周环比-17.43万 吨/周，精煤库存148.52万吨，周环比+13.63万吨。 截至12月31日，钢联统计523矿样本煤矿产能利用率79.6%，周环比-4 ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - This year from January to November, China's national fiscal revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with the same growth rate as the first 10 months. National tax revenue was 16.48 trillion yuan, up 1.8%, and securities trading stamp duty revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, a 70.7% increase [2]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its "2025 Coal Report" that global coal demand in 2025 increased by 0.5% to a record 8.85 billion tons, but demand has entered a plateau and is expected to start a "very slow and gradual" decline by the end of this decade [2]. - On Wednesday, the main platinum futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main palladium futures contract hit the daily limit for the first time. Lithium carbonate futures soared nearly 8%, approaching the 110,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a high in over a year [2]. - Brazil's December soybean export volume is expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. Corn exports are expected to be 6.35 million tons, up from 6.3 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2 million tons, up from 1.83 million tons [3]. - Indonesia's government proposed a nickel ore production target of about 250 million tons in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB), a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB, aiming to prevent further nickel price declines [3]. 2. Sector Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, coking coal, and plastics [4] Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials rose 2.51%, precious metals 33.03%, oilseeds and oils 8.65%, soft commodities 3.32%, non-ferrous metals 23.75%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 10.78%, energy 2.58%, chemicals 10.49%, grains 1.31%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.60% [4] 3. Sector Positions - The document provides a chart of the five - day position changes in commodity futures sectors, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel, and minerals, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composites, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.19 | - 0.47 | 15.47 | | | SSE 50 | 1.25 | 0.74 | 11.43 | | | CSI 300 | 1.83 | 1.18 | 16.39 | | | CSI 500 | 1.95 | 1.51 | 24.66 | | | S&P 500 | - 1.16 | - 1.86 | 14.28 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.92 | - 1.51 | 26.96 | | | German DAX | - 0.02 | 0.99 | 20.91 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.26 | - 1.48 | 24.11 | | | UK FTSE 100 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 19.59 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.10 | 0.06 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.06 | 0.09 | - 0.66 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | 0.05 | - 0.52 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | - 3.25 | - 1.70 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 3.00 | - 2.52 | - 20.84 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.80 | 2.82 | 65.28 | | | LME Copper | 1.30 | 5.07 | 33.72 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 3.02 | 8.55 | 45.23 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.18 | - 1.05 | - 9.29 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 0.80 | - 5.01 | [6] 5. Stock Market Risk Appetite and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents charts of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, gold - oil ratio, copper - gold ratio, Wind All - A (ex - finance, oil, and petrochemicals) and its risk premium, risk premiums of SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, and CBOT soybean and corn futures prices [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation due to a combination of recovering port operations, colder weather, and the need for power plants to replenish their stocks. The demand for coal is anticipated to increase as winter progresses, despite current weak consumption levels [7][8]. - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy which is expected to continue to restrict supply, thereby supporting coal prices. Additionally, external coal supply is projected to decrease due to various factors affecting major exporting countries [7][8]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in companies with high elasticity to price changes, as the demand is expected to rise during the peak winter season [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market value of 1,918.464 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,881.057 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted with their respective earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong investment potential [5][6]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal at 821 yuan/ton as of November 28, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 18 yuan/ton [8]. - The report also tracks the production levels and inventory of coal, indicating a slight decrease in daily production and a stable inventory situation at ports [8][9]. Downstream Performance - The report discusses the daily coal consumption in power plants, which is currently lower than expected but is projected to increase as winter progresses. The report also notes the impact of steel production on coal demand [9][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in coal stocks, particularly those that are expected to benefit from rising coal prices due to seasonal demand increases. Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [8][9].

Group 1: Market Overview - As of August 6, the price of coking coal in Tangshan, Hebei reached 1645 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton, representing a rise of over 20% [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to decline by less than 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a moderate recovery anticipated in the second half, leading to a projected year-on-year growth of 0.2% for 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Activity - On August 6, Dalian Commodity Exchange saw an increase of 40 contracts in coking coal futures, totaling 800 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Guosen Futures noted that the increase in coking coal spot prices has led to a slight improvement in profitability for coking enterprises, with expectations of a small rebound in production and overall supply remaining relatively stable. Demand from steel mills is still acceptable despite a slight decrease in iron water output [3] - Shanghai Zhongti Futures indicated that while coking coal is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, the pace of price increases may slow down, and there are concerns about whether iron production will continue to impact coking coal demand negatively [3]