Report Summary - The decline of the double - coking futures market this week was larger than last week. Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. After the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [6]. Market Focus Fundamental Overview - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a weekly increase of 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly, and the construction progress of some projects in East China has slightly accelerated, but the number of newly started projects is small. As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its 2025 cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the anniversary of the founding of Mongolia and will resume customs clearance on November 27 [7]. Main Views - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited. - The inventory reduction of coking coal has been sluggish, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large. - The willingness of independent coke enterprises to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement of raw materials. - The overall coke production is weakly stable. - There is still room for the decline of hot metal production, and the growth space for coke consumption is limited. - The profit of coke enterprises has improved, while the profit of steel mills is under pressure [7]. Multi - and Short - Focus Analysis | Long Factors | Short Factors | | --- | --- | | The increase in coking coal supply is limited, and inventory pressure is not large | The profit rate of steel mills is continuously declining, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production | | As winter storage approaches, downstream industries have an expectation of restocking | The National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting has revised the market's expectation of the supply side of coal | | | Due to delivery quality issues, the willingness of near - month long - position holders to take delivery is low | [10] Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and the daily average output increased by 0.06 million tons to 75.8 million tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%, and the daily average output increased by 0.2 million tons to 27.63 million tons. As of the weekly statistics on November 15, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.047195 million tons, with a slight decline in the early stage. Overall, the supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, an increase of 0.2086 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, an increase of 0.0201 million tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. This week, the domestic coking coal supply has increased. Affected by the price decline, downstream restocking has been postponed, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The inventory reduction of upstream enterprises has been sluggish, and inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large [20]. Coking Coal Procurement by Coke Enterprises - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, a decrease of 0.3078 million tons. Currently, the available inventory days for coke enterprises are 12.45 days, a decrease of 0.31 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.6529 million tons, an increase of 0.0714 million tons. This week, independent coking enterprises have seen an increase in their own coke inventory, and their willingness to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, maintaining a downward trend in inventory for two consecutive weeks [23]. Coking Coal Procurement by Steel Mills - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 0.0691 million tons. The available inventory days were 12.97 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2234 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons from the previous period, and the available inventory days were 11.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. Recently, the coking coal inventory of steel mills has slightly increased, but the increase is not large. Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and the overall raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [27]. Coke Production - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 0.6267 million tons, a decrease of 0.0033 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 0.4622 million tons, an increase of 0.0005 million tons from the previous period. This week, the coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend [28]. Coke Consumption - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21, China's coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of hot metal was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 0.006 million tons. This week, the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited [30]. Profitability of Coke Enterprises and Steel Mills - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. As of November 21, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, a further decline of 1.3% from the previous period. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises [32]. Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot - The delivery pressure is emerging, and the basis between futures and spot has widened [34]. Market Outlook - Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend, but the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8][9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a strong performance this year, with a year-to-date increase of over 30%, ranking 7th among Shenwan's primary industries [2]. - The report highlights that the average daily pig iron production has increased to 236.9 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased [11]. - The total inventory of steel has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.7%, indicating a tightening supply [23]. - Apparent steel consumption has shown a slight decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% [52]. - The report notes that iron ore prices have strengthened, influenced by reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil [49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Steel Index closed at 1,999.70 points, up 0.83%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.91 percentage points [1][94]. Supply Analysis - Daily pig iron production increased by 2.8 thousand tons, while steel production has decreased, particularly in rebar [11][17]. - The capacity utilization rate for 247 steel mills is reported at 88.8%, reflecting a slight increase [17]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of five major steel products decreased to 1,061.4 million tons, down 1.3% week-on-week [25]. - Steel mill inventories also saw a decline, with a 2.9% reduction [25]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 0.7% week-on-week, with rebar demand dropping more significantly [40][52]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel was 100 thousand tons, reflecting a 3.9% increase [41]. Price and Profitability - The report indicates a slight increase in steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising to 121.2, up 0.1% week-on-week [75]. - Current costs for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are reported at 3,518 yuan/ton and 3,744 yuan/ton, respectively, with negative margins [75][76].

Group 1: Industrial Sector - Midstream production is recovering, with daily pig iron output and asphalt operating rates declining, while most chemical products see an increase in operating rates[2] - The operating rates for polyester in textiles and tire production have rebounded slightly[2] - The South China industrial price index fell by 0.7%, with black raw materials down 3.0% and non-ferrous metals down 0.1%[2] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.6% year-on-year as of November 7, showing a decline compared to the previous month[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.81% in the last four weeks, a slight increase in the decline compared to the previous value[2] Group 3: Domestic Demand - In October, retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.387 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%[2] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 17% year-on-year as of October 17, a decline of 13.4 percentage points from the previous value[2] - Domestic flights increased by 2.3% year-on-year as of November 7, with the Baidu migration index up by 10.9%[2] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of November 2, with container throughput up by 8.2%[2] - The export container freight index rose by 3.6% week-on-week, while Shanghai and Ningbo's export container freight rates turned from rising to falling[2] Group 5: Price Trends - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 2.2% week-on-week, outperforming seasonal trends, particularly in vegetables and pork[2] - Industrial product prices mostly declined, with rebar futures down 2.3% and spot prices down 1.0%[2]

Group 1 - Anshan Iron and Steel Company (Ansteel) is recognized as a pivotal entity in China's steel industry, often referred to as the "first son" of the Republic's steel industry, contributing significantly to the early industrial development of New China [2][3] - The Ansteel Museum serves as a historical chronicle of the development of China's steel industry, showcasing over a thousand valuable historical photographs and more than ten thousand artifacts, covering a total area of 67,600 square meters [7][9] - The museum has received numerous accolades, including being designated as a national first-class museum and a national model base for patriotic education, highlighting its cultural and educational significance [9][10] Group 2 - The Dagu Mountain Iron Mine, known as Asia's deepest open-pit iron mine, has been in operation since 1916, illustrating the evolution of the iron mining industry in Anshan and its impact on China's steel production [14][16] - Qianshan, located 17 kilometers from Anshan, is a national scenic area known for its rich historical and cultural heritage, attracting visitors interested in both natural beauty and historical exploration [18][23] - The Yushi Museum in Anshan showcases the rich history of jade culture in China, particularly the unique qualities of Xiuyan jade, which has a long-standing tradition of mining and processing [26][29]

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年11月02日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：淡季交易预期，关注反弹机会 ◼ 逻辑：淡季交易预期，关注反弹机会 | 2025/10/31 | | 供应（万吨） | | | 需求（万吨） | | | 库存 | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 236.4 | -3.5 | 0.9 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 废钢 | 47.0 | -0.5 | -3.9 | 51.2 | -0.1 | -1.3 | 469.7 | ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations, remaining at a relatively high level overall with temporarily low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of demand changes on market sentiment, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated violently. In the spot market, it was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds, and some regional coke enterprises planned a third round of hikes [3] Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen regions shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai region shut down for goaf treatment, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 billion tons, a decline of 3.8%. In August and September, the monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal was around 6 billion tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. In October, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 12.8 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons from September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports in October will decline, and the annual import volume may be the same as last year [3] Demand Side - Demand is in the transition stage from peak season to off - season. Steel mills' profits have further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output has slightly decreased to 23.99 million tons. As the peak demand season nears its end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% compared to Q2 2025, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% and fixed asset investment entering negative growth[3] - The real estate investment growth rate has hit a historical low, with only export growth remaining relatively stable on the demand side[3] Policy Response - Since September, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been intensified, with the effectiveness of these policies observable through recent high-frequency data[3] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report notably analyzed the current economic situation, indicating a high level of concern from decision-makers regarding short-term economic trends[3] Real Estate Market - Following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has returned to over 2 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to around -20%[3] - Sales improvements have been noted across first, second, and third-tier cities[3] Production and Supply - The overall supply-side situation improved in October, with indicators such as operating rates, capacity utilization, and production showing month-on-month improvements[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown improvements both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to a notable increase in corporate profit growth rates[3] Price Trends - Recent price trends indicate a weakening, particularly in pork prices, which may slow the recovery rate of nominal GDP growth[3] - The average price of cement in East China rose to 436 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it fell to 493 RMB/ton, reflecting regional price disparities[3] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession impacts along with unexpected monetary policy shifts from major economies[3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices continued the rebound trend with intense fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable, and the second round of coking price increase was still in the negotiation process. Supply - side news pushed up coal prices [3]. - Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia, the customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port was affected, and the recent clearance volume decreased, supporting the coal price [3]. - In the domestic market, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen stopped production due to safety reasons this week, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai stopped production for goaf treatment. The coal output declined. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines this week was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand - side - The profit of steel mills further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.399 billion tons. As the demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, the import volume was 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline rate continuously narrowing [3]. - In September, the import of Mongolian coal was 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, the import of Mongolian coal was 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline rate significantly narrowing [3].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rate marginally declined this week, while asphalt and float glass operating rates increased, and apparent demand for steel improved[1] - Polyester operating rates in textiles and weaving industries showed a marginal recovery, with both full steel and semi-steel tire operating rates rebounding[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales area in 30 major cities decreased by 20.4% year-on-year as of October 17, but the decline rate improved by 10.8 percentage points compared to last week; the year-on-year decline for October so far is 25.4%[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.85% month-on-month as of October 6[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from October 1-12 totaled 686,000 units, down 8% year-on-year, contrasting with a 6% increase in September[1] - Major home appliance retail sales decreased by 3.6% year-on-year as of October 10, showing a marginal recovery[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 2.4% year-on-year as of October 17, but the growth rate slowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to last week[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 4.9% year-on-year as of October 12, while container throughput rose by 5.3% year-on-year[1] - The export container freight index for China fell by 4.1% week-on-week, but export freight rates in Shanghai and Ningbo showed a rapid increase[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index dropped by 3.0%, with the black raw materials index down 1.4% and the non-ferrous metals index down 1.1% this week[1] - Rebar futures closed down 2.1%, while spot prices fell by 1.0%; coking coal futures rose by 1.6%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices up 0.3%[1]

Core Insights - The black metal industry chain is experiencing a downward trend in steel prices due to an oversupply situation, leading to a significant contraction in steel mill profits, while upstream coal mines are benefiting from price increases [1][4][6] Industry Overview - In September, domestic coking coal prices initially decreased before rising, with the average price in Shanxi province reaching 1490 RMB/ton by September 29, an increase of 90 RMB/ton or 6.43% from the monthly low, and a year-to-date increase of 90 RMB/ton [1] - Coking coal's average price for September was around 1440 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15 RMB/ton [1] Coking Coal and Coke Prices - Coking coal prices have shown a mixed trend, while coke prices have stabilized after a decline, with an average profit for metallurgical coke in Hebei dropping to -42 RMB/ton by September 25, a decrease of 61 RMB/ton from the previous month [2] - The overall profit margins for coking plants have been squeezed due to the contrasting price movements of coking coal and coke [2] Steel Mill Performance - Steel mills are facing reduced profit margins as steel prices decline, with average profits for steel products significantly decreasing in September [4] - The average profit for steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei, was 29.43 RMB/ton, down 64.52 RMB/ton or approximately 68.67% from the previous month [4] - Rebar averaged a loss of 72.15 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90.22 RMB/ton or 125.05% from August [4] Market Demand and Price Trends - Domestic demand for steel is weak, leading to an accumulation of inventory and a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices in Beijing dropping to 3130 RMB/ton, a decrease of 60 RMB/ton or 1.88% from the previous month [5] - Year-on-year, rebar prices have fallen by 320 RMB/ton or 9.28% [5] Future Outlook - The current strong coking coal prices are benefiting coal mines, while coking plants are operating below breakeven levels [6] - As steel inventories continue to rise, the likelihood of further declines in steel prices is high, prompting steel mills to focus on reducing raw material costs to maintain profitability [6]