宏 2025 年 10 月 13 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 10 月第 1 周） 假期线下出行较热 证券分析师 平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，受十一假期扰动，月初部分工业品生产边际回落，新房 销售也有调整；不过，假期线下出行较热，港口集装箱吞吐量仍处高位， 上海和宁波出口运价回升，黑色原材料期货价格也有上涨。 1. 工业：十一假期扰动生产。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水泥熟料 产能利用率、钢材表观需求边际回落；浮法玻璃开工率持平；部分化工品 开工率提升。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造业开工率边际回 升；汽车全钢胎开工率、半钢胎开工率回落。 2. 地产：新房成交边际回落。1）销售方面，10 月以来（截至 10 日），30 大 中城市新房销售面积同比增长-28.7%，较上月回落，受假期天数增加的影 响，也有基数抬升的扰动。2）价格 ...

Market Review - The rebar futures contract closed at 3164, up 0.22% after a narrow fluctuation on Wednesday night [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 25, the price of rebar from Zhongtian is 3260 yuan/ton, with an outflow of 48,000 tons yesterday, an increase of 10,000 tons compared to the same week last year [2] - Hangzhou's rebar inventory stands at 975,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same week last year [2] - On September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported rebar warehouse receipts at 263,806 tons, a decrease of 3,584 tons from the previous trading day; factory warehouse receipts remained stable at 5,700 tons [2] - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel in mid-September, with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous period [2] - Estimated national daily crude steel output for this period is 2.56 million tons, down 0.6%, while daily pig iron production is 2.29 million tons, up 0.7%, and daily steel output is 4.17 million tons, up 2.7% [2] Institutional Perspectives - New Century Futures notes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to impact trading post-National Day, with coal mine production halts and rising "anti-involution" expectations driving a rebound in coking coal [3] - The production of finished steel has slightly decreased, but supply remains relatively high, with a small increase in demand for five major steel products, leading to continued inventory pressure [3] - Real estate investment continues to decline, limiting total demand, which is expected to create a pattern of high demand early in the year and low demand later [3] - Hualian Futures observes a rapid recovery in blast furnace steel production, with average daily pig iron output at a yearly high, and a noticeable reduction in rebar supply due to production shifts [3] - Seasonal demand recovery is anticipated as traditional consumption peaks and pre-holiday stockpiling boosts demand, leading to a gradual slowdown in inventory accumulation [3] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to show improvement, with steel prices likely to continue a strong oscillation [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated overall and closed slightly lower on a weekly basis. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some coal mines was weak, and the prices remained stable with a slight decline. Last Friday, steel mills started the second round of price cuts for coke, planning to implement it this week [3] Supply Side - The coking coal market remained weak, with transaction prices mainly falling. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers remained weak. However, after some coal mines cut prices, sales improved. The market still expected pre - National Day replenishment. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Affected by production cuts and improved sales after price cuts at some coal mines, mine - end inventories decreased [3] Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills was relatively fast. Last week, the daily average hot metal output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before the production limit. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the rebound space of hot metal. In the later stage, the demand for raw materials will face a test [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of coal and coke have implemented production cuts, but most of the production cut cycles are short. Attention should be paid to the resumption process. The market sentiment is generally cooling down but still fluctuating, and prices are under pressure and oscillating [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated, and there was a rapid rise near the close of the night session. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices were stable with a slight decline. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [3]. Supply Side - Last week, due to the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi stopped production for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in coal production. This week, production is gradually recovering. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coal mines this week is 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons. Mine - end inventory has decreased [3]. Demand Side - Last week, the steel mill production cut expectation was realized. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, and short - term hot metal output tends to rise. However, due to factors such as continuous inventory accumulation of finished products and narrowing steel mill profits, raw material demand will face challenges later [4].

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production increased slightly, while glass production rates improved, indicating a mixed performance in industrial production[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate showed a marginal adjustment, reflecting ongoing challenges in the construction materials sector[2] - Steel and building materials production and apparent demand saw a month-on-month increase, suggesting a recovery in construction activity[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 0.3% year-on-year as of August 29, with a notable improvement from a -9.4% decline earlier in the month[2] - The four-week rolling index for second-hand home listing prices decreased by 0.44% as of August 18, indicating ongoing price pressures in the housing market[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 152.4 million yuan per day, up 32.2% year-on-year, reflecting strong consumer interest in entertainment[2] - Retail sales of home appliances grew by 4.7% year-on-year as of August 22, showing a recovery in consumer spending[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries increased by 12.9% year-on-year, although it showed a slight decline from previous weeks[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 4.7% year-on-year as of August 24, indicating resilience in external trade[2] - Container throughput at ports rose by 5.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in shipping activities[2] - South Korea's exports grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the first 20 days of August, indicating a positive trend in regional trade[2] Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 0.4%, while the black raw materials and non-ferrous metals indices rose by 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively, indicating mixed price movements in commodities[2] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.9%, while spot prices fell by 0.3%, reflecting ongoing volatility in the steel market[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face was affected by the Fed's potential interest - rate cut information, and market sentiment was volatile. The short - term market was mainly priced by the industry. With the approaching of the September 3 parade, funds were cautious, and the alloy trended weaker under the weakening of the sector. Silicon manganese was expected to move in a volatile manner [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In China, the single - month electricity consumption in August exceeded 1 trillion kWh, and power supply was stable after the peak summer. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in Jiangsu and Nanjing lowered deposit interest rates. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell was open to interest - rate cuts, and some Fed officials supported interest - rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon manganese has been on the rise since mid - May. After the recent price increase, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons, and the downstream hot metal production was at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 80 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 320 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement and tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon manganese main contract was below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market was mainly priced by the industry in the short term, and silicon manganese should be treated as moving in a volatile manner [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of August 29, the silicon manganese futures contract open interest was 546,000 lots, a decrease of 43,198 lots compared with the previous period. The 1 - 9 contract month spread was 116, an increase of 26 points. As of August 28, the silicon manganese warehouse receipt quantity was 66,783, a decrease of 5,037. The price difference between the silicon manganese and silicon - iron contracts increased by 10 points [13][15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was - 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Production and Inventory**: The production of silicon manganese has been rising since mid - May. The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 47%, an increase of 0.63%. The daily average production was 30,485 tons, an increase of 315 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon manganese was 126,656 tons, an increase of 1.09%, and the weekly supply of national silicon manganese was 213,395 tons, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory has decreased for 8 consecutive weeks to a neutral level [27][32]. - **Upstream**: As of August 28, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 34.2 yuan/ton degree, a decrease of 0.6. The electricity price in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was flat. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 20,000 tons. The spot production cost in the northern region was 5,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 10. In the southern region, the cost was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20, and the profit was - 525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 [36][42][46]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 240,130 tons, a decrease of 620 tons compared with the previous week but an increase of 19,240 tons compared with the same period last year. The silicon manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared with July [50].

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of Wuhan's Qingshan Riverside from an industrial area to an ecological showcase highlights the successful integration of industrial heritage with modern urban development, promoting cultural tourism and environmental sustainability [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industrial Heritage and Transformation - Qingshan District, historically known for its steel production, has undergone significant transformation since the establishment of Wuhan Iron and Steel Corporation in 1958, which marked the beginning of China's industrialization [3]. - The area has shifted from a polluted industrial zone to an ecological riverside park, with a focus on creating a harmonious environment that integrates flood control and urban aesthetics [3][4]. - The renovation project, initiated in 2013, has turned the riverside into a cultural theme park, recognized with the C40 World Cities Award for its innovative approach to urban development [3][4]. Group 2: Ecological and Cultural Impact - The Qingshan Riverside now boasts an 80% green coverage rate, contributing approximately 723 tons of carbon sequestration and releasing around 2400 tons of oxygen annually, effectively serving as a natural oxygen bar for the city [4]. - The area has become a vibrant hub for cultural and recreational activities, attracting visitors with diverse offerings such as creative markets, light dining, and various events, thus enhancing local tourism [4][6]. - Future plans include strengthening the management of industrial heritage and promoting industrial culture as a unique tourism IP, aiming to enrich the community's quality of life [6].

Policy Directions - The two main policy directions for the second half of the year are anti-involution and expanding domestic demand, aimed at stabilizing price levels[1] - Anti-involution policies are expected to further expand in industries like steel, cement, and photovoltaics, with potential governance in other sectors such as lithium batteries[1] Economic Indicators - Recent high-frequency indicators show a weakening in both supply and demand, with production rates for asphalt, cement, and rebar declining[1] - The national average operating rate for asphalt companies was 30.7%, down 2.2 percentage points week-on-week, but up 15.8% year-on-year[9] - The average operating rate for electric furnaces was 62.82%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1%[12] Production and Prices - The average daily crude steel production in early August was 2.074 million tons, an increase of 92,000 tons from late July, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%[72] - Cement production last week was 13.337 million tons, down 2.979 million tons week-on-week, but up 1.1% year-on-year[92] - The average price of cement in East China was 433 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton week-on-week, while in Southwest China, it was 460 RMB/ton, up 17 RMB/ton[100] Market Risks - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, global recession, and major economies' monetary policies exceeding expectations[2]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has eased, and steel prices are oscillating [3] Logic Summary Market Sentiment - The coking coal exchange has imposed position limits again, and the Economic Daily has published an article stating that anti-involution will not drive up general prices, leading to a缓和 in market sentiment [5] Macroeconomic Factors - **Overseas**: US PPI has soared by 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month increase reaching a two-year high, indicating increased producer pressure. The expectation of an unexpected interest rate cut in September has been revised [5][9] - **Domestic**: The anti-involution trading has cooled off. The Politburo meeting on July 30 removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1. The statement "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" has been changed to "promote capacity management in key industries", emphasizing the optimization of market competition order and the regulation of corporate disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations [5][8] Black Industry Chain - Steel demand remains stable during the off-season, with decent profits and low inventories. The daily consumption of scrap steel has rebounded, while the decline in hot metal production is slow, resulting in an ineffective negative feedback transmission [5][11] Section Summaries Rebar Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3320 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3188 (-25) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 132 (+5) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -81 (-8) yuan/ton [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. Additionally, demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [17][20][21] - **Inventory and Production**: High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventories. The production of long and short process rebar and their corresponding inventories are also presented [23][24] - **Production Profit**: The expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 226 (-63) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 207 (-42) yuan/ton. The valley electricity profit of East China rebar was 126 (-54) yuan/ton [29][33] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3460 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3439 (+11) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 21 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was 7 (+8) yuan/ton [35] - **Demand**: Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, closing the export window [36][39][40] - **Inventory and Production**: Speculative demand has declined, leading to a faster accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventories. Production has also decreased [42][44] - **Production Profit**: Similar to rebar, the expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 200 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 308 (-6) yuan/ton [46][48] Variety Spread Structure - Opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread are worth noting [49] Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [58][59][60] Cold Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate are provided [62][63]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [1][81]. - The "anti - involution" policy has led to price fluctuations in related commodities, but the market is still in a state of emotional disturbance. Eventually, prices will move towards the fundamentals, which will take time [15][95]. - In the future, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, as well as the entire black sector, are likely to face a situation of weakening marginal demand. It is necessary to focus on changes in downstream terminal demand and whether the state will introduce relevant demand - supporting measures [15][95]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level. Manganese silicon production profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 298 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 258 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 476 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon production cost increases slightly, with Inner Mongolia at 6098 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 6058 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6376 yuan/ton. Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week. Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week [14]. - Strategy: Given the current market situation of commodity price fluctuations and emotional disturbances, speculative funds are advised to wait and see, while industrial players can choose the right time for hedging [15]. 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price is 6026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 64 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis ratio is 1.06%, at a neutral historical level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 298 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is - 258 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is - 476 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [25]. - Production cost: Inner Mongolia is 6098 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 6058 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week - on - week; Guangxi is 6376 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [30]. - Manganese ore imports: In June, manganese ore imports were 268 tons, down 25.95 tons month - on - month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. From January to June, cumulative imports were 1446 tons, up 48.52 tons or 3.47% year - on - year [33]. - Manganese ore inventory: As of August 9, 2025, manganese ore port inventory is 448.9 tons, up 10.4 tons week - on - week [36]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly manganese silicon output is 20.71 tons, up 1.12 tons week - on - week, with an accelerating increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is down about 4.34% year - on - year. In July 2025, manganese silicon output was 81.96 tons, up 6.73 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 32.51 tons or 5.39% year - on - year [44]. - Demand: Weekly rebar output is 220.45 tons, down 0.73 tons week - on - week. As of this week, cumulative weekly output is down about 2.57% year - on - year. Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. Weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon is 12.54 tons, basically unchanged week - on - week [14][58]. 3.1.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: Manganese silicon visible inventory is 54.38 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, still at a high level [69]. - Sample enterprise inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises is 15.88 tons, down 0.27 tons week - on - week [72]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of manganese silicon steel mill inventory is 14.24 days, down 1.25 days month - on - month, at a historical low [75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the manganese silicon futures price maintained a volatile trend, with a weekly decline of 16 yuan/ton or - 0.26%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, but the daily K - line is loose, disorderly, and the trend is weakening. Short - term support levels at around the rebound trend line and 5850 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [80]. Ferrosilicon Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key data: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level. Ferrosilicon production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The production cost of the main producing areas is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year [94]. - Strategy: Similar to manganese silicon, short - term speculative funds are advised to stay on the sidelines, while industrial players can seize hedging opportunities [95]. 3.2.2 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures price is 5754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 146 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis ratio is 2.47%, at a neutral historical level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Production profit: Inner Mongolia is - 211 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia is 93 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is - 15 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - Production cost: The main producing areas' production cost is basically stable, with Inner Mongolia at 5661 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; Ningxia at 5357 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; and Qinghai at 5465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of Shenmu semi - coke small material is 650 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: Weekly ferrosilicon output is 11.28 tons, up 0.37 tons week - on - week, with a continuous increase in output. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 0.48% year - on - year. In July 2025, ferrosilicon output was 44.67 tons, up 3.26 tons month - on - month. From January to July, cumulative output was down 0.56 tons or 0.18% year - on - year [116]. - Demand: Daily average hot metal output is 240.66 tons, up 0.34 tons week - on - week. As of now, cumulative weekly output is up about 3.19% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal is 47.46 tons, down 2.92 tons or 5.80% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, cumulative ferrosilicon exports are 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year [94]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Visible inventory: The visible inventory of ferrosilicon is 17.41 tons, down 0.49 tons week - on - week, remaining at a high level in the same period [139]. - Steel mill inventory: In July, the average available days of ferrosilicon steel mill inventory is 14.25 days, down 1.13 days month - on - month, at a historical low [142]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week (August 11 - 15), the ferrosilicon futures price continued to show a wide - range volatile trend, with a slightly narrowed fluctuation range and a weekly decline of 10 yuan/ton or - 0.17%. In the daily - line level, the price is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, and the daily K - line is loose and disorderly. Short - term support levels at around 5600 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton (for the weighted index) should be monitored [148].