晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 27 日 逻辑：昨日，黑色金属板块期货价格震荡回落，煤焦表现相对更弱。 近日 Mysteel 消息，华北部分钢企已接到 2026 年全国重要会议期间临时 自主减排通知，要求企业在 3 月 4 日—3 月 11 日执行阶段性减排管控， 高炉负荷按不低于 30%比例自主减排，并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原 料库存情况，制定专项减排执行方案，按要求上报备案，减排消息促使煤 焦价格反弹乏力。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从煤焦基上面来看，本周煤矿正式进入复产高峰期，多数民营煤矿已 开始恢复生产，数据显示，本周原煤、精煤日产 151.6 万吨、64.9 万吨， 分别较前一周增加 43.0 万吨、19.0 万吨。进口端，节前蒙煤甘其毛都口 岸日通关量下降，节中短暂闭关，目前已恢复通关，2 月 23 日通关量约 18 万吨，口岸监管区库存整体尚处高位。春节期间物流运输出现一定影 响，货物周转效率有所降低，下游企业以消耗厂内原料库存为主，部分焦 化企业焦炭外运受限，厂内库存因此有所积压。需求端，本周钢厂高炉日 均铁水产量 233 万吨左右，下周受环保限产政策影响，预计铁水增 ...

Group 1: Digital Transformation - The Shougang Group's steel company in Qian'an has implemented digital control for iron water transportation, utilizing data management systems [1] - The company has integrated artificial intelligence models into over 20 processes, resulting in annual cost savings of 70 million yuan and a reduction of 40,200 tons of carbon dioxide emissions [3][4] - Qian'an's steel enterprises have achieved AI demonstration applications in 45 scenarios across 12 processes, with plans to enhance collaboration with leading AI companies [4] Group 2: Green Transformation - Qian'an's steel companies are pursuing green transformation, achieving A-level environmental performance across all long-process steel enterprises [4] - The local steel and coking enterprises have a total coking capacity of 10.8 million tons, with the potential to produce 200,000 tons of hydrogen from coke oven gas [5] - The Hebei Yanshan Steel Group has deployed 643 hydrogen-powered heavy trucks, emphasizing the integration of hydrogen energy and steel production [6]

Industrial Sector - In January, daily average pig iron production and float glass operating rates remained stable, while asphalt and some chemical products saw a decline in operating rates[4] - The apparent demand for major steel products decreased, while cement clinker capacity utilization increased[4] - The operating rate for automotive semi-steel tires increased, while full-steel tire operating rates declined[20] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 38.5% year-on-year as of January 23, with a similar decline of 38.6% for the month of January[21] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.93% week-on-week, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[29] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.5% year-on-year as of January 16, a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous value[33] - The volume of postal express deliveries decreased by 5.4% year-on-year as of January 18, a drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous value[32] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of January 18, an improvement of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value[35] - Container throughput at ports rose by 7.6% year-on-year, also showing an increase from previous values[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 1.1%, while the Nanhua Black Raw Materials Index fell by 0.9% and the Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 3.0%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 1.7% week-on-week[40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is under pressure. The futures price of coking coal opened lower and moved lower intraday. Although the downstream steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production during the winter storage period and are expected to increase the procurement of raw materials, the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia may have an impact on the market, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent impact of the accident. At present, China still releases a signal of stable growth, so there is support below the coking coal price [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The coking coal futures opened lower and moved lower intraday. On the supply side, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13%. After the resumption of work, the inventory of coking coal mines decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 22.64 tons. The coking enterprises increased their inventory by 61.17 tons, and the steel mills increased their inventory by 4.47 tons. The downstream molten iron output decreased by 0.47% month - on - month, with a weekly output of 228.01 tons. The steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production, and the procurement of raw materials is expected to increase. Pay attention to the subsequent impact of the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia [1] Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1124 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13 percentage points; the daily output of clean coking coal was 76.85 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.42 tons [3] Demand Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.45 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 tons; the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 tons; the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 228.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons [5]

Group 1 - The modernization of the industrial system is the material and technical foundation of Chinese-style modernization, with advancements in industrial, agricultural, service sectors, and infrastructure development [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuous promotion of the modernization of the industrial system by 2025, focusing on innovation-driven growth and nurturing new momentum [1][3] - The current focus is on leading new quality productivity development through technological innovation, reinforcing the real economy to gain strategic advantages in future development and international competition [1][2] Group 2 - The domestic and international environments are complex, necessitating a focus on the real economy for modern industrial system construction, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [2] - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, achieving a stable grain output of over 1.4 trillion jin, despite natural disasters [3] - In November, 30 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year growth in added value, indicating steady progress in the industrial economy [3] Group 3 - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is advancing, with more research outcomes transitioning from laboratories to production lines, supported by the establishment of over 2,400 pilot platforms nationwide [7][8] - Key industrial enterprises have improved their CNC rate to 68.5%, and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste has reached 57% [8] - The number of high-tech enterprises in the country has reached 504,000, with over 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises cultivated, enhancing the innovation capacity of enterprises [9] Group 4 - The integration of industries is a crucial path for building a modern industrial system, with a focus on enhancing economic efficiency and creating new industries and business models [10] - The acceleration of the integration between the real economy and the digital economy is evident, with over 7,000 advanced intelligent factories established [11][12] - The government is promoting the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries, with policies aimed at enhancing the development of modern services alongside advanced manufacturing [12][13]

Group 1 - The modernization of the industrial system is the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, with advancements in industry, agriculture, services, and infrastructure development [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuous promotion of the modernization of the industrial system by 2025, focusing on innovation-driven growth and nurturing new momentum [1] - The current emphasis is on leading new quality productivity development through technological innovation, reinforcing the real economy to gain strategic advantages in future development and international competition [1] Group 2 - The focus on the real economy is crucial for building a modern industrial system, as evidenced by the significant market share of Shandong Zhonghang Taida Composite Materials Co., which has over 30% in the national hot press market [2] - The State Council has issued guidelines to ensure financial services support the real economy, with various departments implementing growth stabilization plans for key industries like steel and automotive [2] - The resilience of the real economy is highlighted by the agricultural sector achieving a stable grain output of over 1.4 trillion jin, despite natural disasters [3] Group 3 - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is essential for enhancing productivity and creating a modern industrial system that is competitive and self-sufficient [6] - The number of high-tech enterprises in China has reached 504,000, with over 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, indicating a strengthening of the innovation主体 [8] - The shift towards digital and intelligent manufacturing is accelerating, with over 7,000 advanced intelligent factories established and more than 100 million devices connected to industrial internet platforms [10] Group 4 - The integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries is necessary for the construction of a modern industrial system, as highlighted by the ongoing efforts to promote service-oriented manufacturing and the deep integration of manufacturing with service industries [12] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined plans to enhance the quality and capacity of the service industry, which is expected to further support the modernization of the industrial system [12] - The future outlook for economic development is optimistic, driven by active factor flows and innovation, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development directions [12]

Group 1 - The modernization of the industrial system is the material and technical foundation of Chinese-style modernization, with advancements in industrial, agricultural, service sectors, and infrastructure development [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuous promotion of the modernization of the industrial system by 2025, focusing on innovation-driven growth and nurturing new momentum [1] - Companies are increasingly leveraging technological innovation to lead the development of new productive forces, reinforcing the real economy for strategic advantages in future development and international competition [1] Group 2 - The focus on the real economy is crucial for building a modern industrial system, as evidenced by the significant market share of Shandong Zhonghang Taida Composite Materials Co., which has over 30% in the national hot press market [2] - The government has issued guidelines to enhance financial support for the real economy, with various departments collaborating on growth stabilization plans for key industries like steel and automotive [2] Group 3 - The resilience of the real economy is highlighted by the agricultural sector achieving a stable grain output of over 1.4 trillion jin, despite natural disasters [3] - In November, 30 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year growth in value added, indicating steady progress in the industrial economy [3] - The service sector contributed 3.1 percentage points to GDP growth in the first three quarters, reflecting an increase in quality and efficiency [3] Group 4 - The integration of technology and industry is essential for enhancing industrial innovation capabilities, addressing issues of "large but not strong" and "complete but not refined" in certain sectors [6] - The establishment of over 2,400 pilot platforms nationwide supports the development of new productive forces, with 241 key platforms identified for nurturing innovation [6] Group 5 - Traditional industries are accelerating their transformation, with the CNC rate in key industrial processes reaching 68.5% and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste at 57% [7] - The number of high-tech enterprises in China has reached 504,000, with over 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises cultivated, enhancing the innovation capacity of the industrial system [8] Group 6 - The integration of industries is a significant pathway for building a modern industrial system, with a focus on improving economic efficiency and creating new industries and business models [9] - The acceleration of the integration between the real economy and digital economy is evident, with over 7,000 advanced smart factories established and more than 100 million devices connected to key industrial internet platforms [10] Group 7 - The shift from merely selling equipment to providing engineering design and energy-saving services is exemplified by Shaanxi Blower (Group) Co., which has expanded its business to over 100 countries [12] - The government is promoting the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries, aiming for a collaborative development model across the three industrial sectors [12]

Group 1 - The modern industrial system is the material and technical foundation of Chinese-style modernization, with advancements in industry, agriculture, services, and infrastructure development [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuous promotion of the modern industrial system by 2025, focusing on innovation-driven growth and nurturing new momentum [1][2] - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is deepening, with a focus on advanced manufacturing as the backbone of the modern industrial system [1][3] Group 2 - The domestic and international environment is complex, necessitating a focus on the real economy for the construction of a modern industrial system [2] - The State Council has issued guidelines to enhance financial services for the real economy, with increased support for key industries such as steel and automotive [2] - The resilience of the real economy is highlighted by the stable grain production exceeding 1.4 trillion jin and growth in 30 out of 41 industrial sectors in November [3] Group 3 - The integration of new technologies is crucial for enhancing industrial competitiveness, addressing issues of "large but not strong" and "complete but not refined" in certain sectors [6] - The number of high-tech enterprises has reached 504,000, with over 140,000 specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises cultivated [9] - The construction of over 2,400 pilot platforms supports the seamless connection between innovation and industry [7] Group 4 - The integration of digital and physical economies is accelerating, with over 7,000 advanced intelligent factories established and more than 100 million devices connected to industrial internet platforms [11] - The focus on service-oriented manufacturing is growing, with policies promoting the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries [12] - The future outlook for economic development is optimistic, driven by active factor flows and innovation, with a commitment to intelligent, green, and integrated development [12]

Group 1 - The modern industrial system is the material and technical foundation of Chinese-style modernization, with significant advancements in industry, agriculture, services, and infrastructure development [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuous promotion of the modern industrial system by 2025, focusing on innovation-driven growth and nurturing new momentum [1] - Companies are leveraging technological innovation to lead the development of new productive forces, reinforcing the real economy for strategic advantages in future development and international competition [1] Group 2 - The focus on the real economy is crucial for building a modern industrial system, with policies aimed at supporting industries such as steel and automotive to stabilize growth [2] - The resilience of the real economy is highlighted by the agricultural sector achieving a stable harvest of over 1.4 trillion jin, and 30 out of 41 industrial sectors showing year-on-year growth in value added [3] - The service sector contributed 3.1 percentage points to GDP growth in the first three quarters, indicating a continuous improvement in quality and efficiency [3] Group 3 - The integration of technology and industry is essential for enhancing industrial innovation capabilities, with a focus on improving total factor productivity and creating a competitive modern industrial system [6] - Over 2,400 pilot platforms have been established nationwide to support the development of new productive forces, with 241 key platforms identified for further cultivation [6] - Traditional industries are accelerating their transformation, with the CNC rate in key industrial enterprises reaching 68.5% and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste at 57% [7] Group 4 - The integration of the digital economy and the real economy is accelerating, with smart manufacturing technologies being adopted in various sectors [10] - More than 7,000 advanced and over 500 excellent smart factories have been established, with over 100 million devices connected to key industrial internet platforms [11] - The government is promoting the deep integration of manufacturing and service industries, with policies aimed at enhancing the quality and capacity of the service sector [11]

Report Summary - The decline of the double - coking futures market this week was larger than last week. Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market. After the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [6]. Market Focus Fundamental Overview - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a weekly increase of 0.04 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a weekly increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly, and the construction progress of some projects in East China has slightly accelerated, but the number of newly started projects is small. As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume at the Ganqimaodu Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its 2025 cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the anniversary of the founding of Mongolia and will resume customs clearance on November 27 [7]. Main Views - The supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited. - The inventory reduction of coking coal has been sluggish, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large. - The willingness of independent coke enterprises to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, and steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement of raw materials. - The overall coke production is weakly stable. - There is still room for the decline of hot metal production, and the growth space for coke consumption is limited. - The profit of coke enterprises has improved, while the profit of steel mills is under pressure [7]. Multi - and Short - Focus Analysis | Long Factors | Short Factors | | --- | --- | | The increase in coking coal supply is limited, and inventory pressure is not large | The profit rate of steel mills is continuously declining, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production | | As winter storage approaches, downstream industries have an expectation of restocking | The National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting has revised the market's expectation of the supply side of coal | | | Due to delivery quality issues, the willingness of near - month long - position holders to take delivery is low | [10] Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.66%, and the daily average output increased by 0.06 million tons to 75.8 million tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 37.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%, and the daily average output increased by 0.2 million tons to 27.63 million tons. As of the weekly statistics on November 15, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1.047195 million tons, with a slight decline in the early stage. Overall, the supply of coking coal has increased slightly, but the increase is limited [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, an increase of 0.2086 million tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, an increase of 0.0201 million tons. The coking coal inventory at ports was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. This week, the domestic coking coal supply has increased. Affected by the price decline, downstream restocking has been postponed, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. The inventory reduction of upstream enterprises has been sluggish, and inventory has increased significantly in the past two weeks, but the absolute inventory pressure is not large [20]. Coking Coal Procurement by Coke Enterprises - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, a decrease of 0.3078 million tons. Currently, the available inventory days for coke enterprises are 12.45 days, a decrease of 0.31 days from the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 0.6529 million tons, an increase of 0.0714 million tons. This week, independent coking enterprises have seen an increase in their own coke inventory, and their willingness to replenish coking coal inventory has weakened, maintaining a downward trend in inventory for two consecutive weeks [23]. Coking Coal Procurement by Steel Mills - As of November 21, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 0.0691 million tons. The available inventory days were 12.97 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.2234 million tons, a decrease of 0.0006 million tons from the previous period, and the available inventory days were 11.05 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. Recently, the coking coal inventory of steel mills has slightly increased, but the increase is not large. Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and the overall raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [27]. Coke Production - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, an increase of 0.07% from the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 0.6267 million tons, a decrease of 0.0033 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 0.4622 million tons, an increase of 0.0005 million tons from the previous period. This week, the coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend [28]. Coke Consumption - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21, China's coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, a decrease of 0.0027 million tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average output of hot metal was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 0.006 million tons. This week, the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited [30]. Profitability of Coke Enterprises and Steel Mills - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. As of November 21, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, a further decline of 1.3% from the previous period. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises [32]. Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot - The delivery pressure is emerging, and the basis between futures and spot has widened [34]. Market Outlook - Since November, the coking coal futures market has gradually weakened. Affected by the National Development and Reform Commission's winter supply - guarantee meeting on November 11, the market's expectation of tight supply has loosened, with a large decline on that day. Subsequently, due to the lack of policy - driven expectations, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened synchronously. With the approaching contract change of the main contract, the delivery pressure on the near - month contract increased, and the downward pressure on the futures market intensified. In the short term, the expected increase in supply and the limited restocking by downstream industries due to poor profitability in the steel industry chain have weakened the support for the futures market. However, due to the significant inventory reduction by mining enterprises in the early stage, their inventory pressure is not large, so the downward space for the futures market is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the futures market [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises has shown a weakly stable trend, but the hot metal production has declined compared with last week, approaching the level of the same period last year. From a seasonal perspective, there is still some room for the decline of hot metal production, and the subsequent growth space for coke demand is limited. Recently, after the fourth price increase of coke was implemented and the price of coking coal declined, the profit of coke enterprises has improved, but the profitability of steel mills has been continuously suppressed. The decrease in the profit rate of steel enterprises will intensify the game between steel and coke enterprises. Steel mills will resist further price increases by coke enterprises, reducing the possibility of further price increases. If the price of coking coal回调s, steel mills may even initiate price cuts to seek profits from coke enterprises. The futures market should focus on the support level of coking coal, as it is significantly affected by the trend of coking coal [40].