1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal spot market sentiment has improved recently, with prices generally rising and the auction non - winning rate decreasing. Coke sentiment has also improved, with price increase expectations. Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices, and domestic coking coal production will be restricted, but imported coal can provide some supplement. The upside of prices depends on demand, and currently, steel demand restricts the upside of raw material prices [4]. - For trading strategies, in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the medium term, due to policy disturbances on the supply side, it is recommended to buy on dips, but be cautious about the upside. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term oscillation adjustment. In the medium term, with policy disturbances on the supply side, maintain the idea of buying on dips, but be cautious about the upside [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis Coking Coal - **Supply**: Future coal mine over - production inspections may support coking coal prices. Domestic coking coal production will be restricted by anti - involution and over - production inspections, and it is difficult to return to the high point of the first half of the year and will be lower than the same period last year. However, imported coal can provide some supplement [4]. - **Demand**: Steel demand has resilience but no obvious bright spots, and the demand and profit situation of steel restrict the upside of coking coal prices [4]. Coke - **Supply**: Coke production has remained basically stable this week. Although recent profits have declined and some coking enterprises are in the red, they have not reached the point of active production cuts [8][9]. - **Demand**: Pig iron production has rebounded slightly this week, and it is expected to remain high in the near future. Downstream steel mills will continue to replenish coke stocks before the National Day holiday, and there are also some traders entering the market to buy, so the overall demand for coke has resilience [9]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Coking Coal - **Spot Price**: The coking coal market sentiment has improved this week, with the auction non - winning rate significantly decreasing, downstream procurement enthusiasm increasing, and most coal types rising by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. It is expected that the coking coal spot price will continue to be strong next week [8]. - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has continued to rise slightly this week, and it is expected to remain basically unchanged next week [8]. - **Imported Mongolian Coal**: The number of customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has continued to rise this week, and it is expected to remain at a high level next week [8]. - **Demand**: Coke production has remained basically stable this week [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal has increased this week, with downstream coking enterprises replenishing stocks in advance, mine inventories decreasing, port inventories increasing, and the inventory pressure at the port not being large [8]. Coke - **Spot Price**: The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented this week. With the rise of coking coal prices, the cost support for coke is obvious, and the market sentiment has also improved. It is expected that leading coking enterprises in mainstream areas will propose a price increase next week, and the probability of implementation is relatively high [9]. - **Supply**: Coke production has remained basically stable this week [9]. - **Demand**: Pig iron production has rebounded slightly this week, and it is expected to remain high in the near future. Downstream steel mills will continue to replenish coke stocks before the National Day holiday, and there are also some traders entering the market to buy, so the overall demand for coke has resilience [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke has increased this week, and the overall supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced [9]. - **Profit**: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke is - 17 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [9].

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【焦炭临近国庆止跌企稳，成本支撑趋强】9月18日消息，焦炭市场近日僵持稳定。截至9月17日，河北 唐山准一级干熄焦到厂价1650元/吨左右，9月累计降110元/吨。 受美联储降息、煤矿查超产影响，黑色 期货盘面上涨，坑口焦煤止跌反弹，增加焦炭成本支撑。 临近国庆，部分钢焦企业节前备货，采购积 极性提升。在成本和需求支撑下，焦炭继续提降难度增大，短期将止跌企稳。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. However, high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center of the steel market is expected to shift from policy to fundamentals, and steel prices may show a short - term weakening trend [4][5]. - For coking coal and coke, although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply will be affected by policies in the medium term, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as the factors driving price increases weaken and the terminal steel demand is under pressure [15]. - For ferroalloys, both silicon - iron and manganese - silicon need to be wary of the adjustment risks caused by the rapid increase in supply [20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Some steel mills in Tangshan received oral notices of environmental protection production restrictions. From August 25 - September 3, sintering machines will be restricted by 30%, and from August 31 - September 3, blast furnaces may be restricted by 40%. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin have declined. The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated last Friday night. Steel production resumed overall last week, with a slight reduction in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. The overall inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the demand for building materials declined. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, but high iron - water production and export demand, along with previous policies, have driven the market up. The price center is expected to shift to fundamentals, and steel prices may weaken [4][5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests a weakening trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to enter positive spreads at low basis levels and hold; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamping wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamping dry - quenched coke [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: Recently, the prices of some coal mines have corrected, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise. The impact of over - production inspections on coal mine production is emerging [10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests waiting for a correction and then going long on far - month contracts [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The State Council emphasized boosting investment and stabilizing the real estate market. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan on August 18. From August 11 - 17, the global iron - ore shipment volume increased. The spot prices of some iron - ore varieties in Qingdao Port have changed [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated at night. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving price increases have weakened. The short - term ore price will fluctuate [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral, arbitrage, option, and spot - futures trading all suggest waiting and seeing [13]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: The manganese - ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased. The coke price in Xingtai is planned to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the supply is increasing rapidly, and the demand is at a high level but the rebar apparent demand is declining. For manganese - silicon, the supply is also increasing, the demand is high in the short term, and the cost is supported. Both need to be wary of supply - related adjustment risks [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading suggests using it as a short - position variety in the industrial chain; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct positive spreads when the basis is low; for options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21].