于持有的股民来说，不要太开心了，谁都想要这样的涨停股，可现实却是市场上有5千多只股票，很难 抓住这样大涨的个股，只剩下一堆旁观者羡慕的眼光！ 周一的大盘再掀热潮，强势收红，日线图上赫然拉出令人瞠目的"12连阳"！这一波凌厉涨势，不仅让新 手投资者目瞪口呆，就连久经沙场的老股民也直呼"罕见"。要知道，在A股历史上，连续12个交易日收 阳的行情屈指可数，堪称牛市情绪的集中爆发。市场做多热情高涨，板块轮动有序，资金面与政策面共 振，共同推升指数节节攀升。 然而，有趣的是，即便面对如此强劲的上涨，市场上仍不乏唱空声音。部分投资者坚持认为当前估值偏 高、技术面超买，担心回调一触即发。但历史经验告诉我们，股市的情绪往往具有周期性——那些眼下 对"12连阳"嗤之以鼻的人，很可能在大盘冲上4500点时又转为乐观，追高入场。这正是市场轮回的微妙 之处：恐惧与贪婪交替上演，理性常被情绪裹挟。若真无人在高位看多，那所谓的"牛熊转换"和"周期 律动"恐怕也就失去了根基。 先来看下对下一个交易日有预判作用的"神器"——中信期货在股指期货主连上的增减持情况。它在沪深 300股指期货上多单方面减仓56手，空单方面减仓53手，给出了"偏空" ...

雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 以下是本次圆桌对谈中 ， 61提到的主要观点 ： 1 、 牛熊转换阶段 ， 决定结果的不是判断方向 ， 而是 攻守是否平衡 。 低点扛不住 ， 等不到牛市 ； 只守不攻 ， 也会在结构性行情中留下遗 憾 。 2 、 牛市真正的风险 ， 不在下跌 ， 而在上涨过程中丢掉安全边际 。 情绪扩张时的盲目自信 ， 是投资中最大的隐患 。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 上周末 ， 61受邀参加雪球嘉年华 ， 参与了 《 如何买基金收益更稳定 》 的主题圆桌讨论 。 会上见到了不少关注61的朋友 ， 感谢大伙的厚爱 。 3 、 熊市和牛市都是长期投资的组成部分 ， 不是对立面 。 短期波动只是生命周期中的一段 ， 不值得被过度放大 。 4 、 牛市中更容易亏钱 ， 是因为很多人没想清楚三件事 ： 初衷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses strategies for investors to exit the market during a bull run while preserving profits and managing risks effectively [2][5]. Group 1: Exit Strategies - Gradual profit-taking method: Investors should set a safety line for their principal (e.g., recover principal when total assets reach 130% of the principal) and have profit targets (e.g., sell in batches when profits reach 50% or 100%) [3]. - Technical signal assistance: Investors should monitor key moving averages and chart patterns (e.g., M-top, head and shoulders) to identify potential market tops [3]. - Emotional indicators: Increased public discussion about the stock market and extreme optimism in broker reports can signal a market top [3]. Group 2: Options Hedging Strategies - Options can provide a form of insurance against market downturns, allowing investors to maintain exposure while limiting losses [4][14]. - The use of synthetic long positions (buying calls and selling puts) can help mitigate risks associated with ETF options trading [4]. - The debate exists regarding the effectiveness of options in slow-moving markets, where premium decay can significantly impact returns [4]. Group 3: Market Top Characteristics - Policy signals such as regulatory crackdowns and changes in monetary policy can indicate a market top [4]. - Large-scale selling by institutional investors and rising government bond yields are also warning signs [4]. - Structural performance issues, such as stagnation in brokerage stocks and a lack of broad market participation, can signal caution [4]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment Management - Common pitfalls include attempting to perfectly time the market top and the dangers of premature exits [5]. - Discipline is crucial; investors should wait for the right moment to re-enter the market after exiting [5]. - Acknowledging that profits can be made without trying to catch every market movement is essential for long-term success [5]. Group 5: Additional Strategies - Transitioning to defensive stocks and short-term bond funds can help lock in profits during uncertain market conditions [5]. - Preparing for extreme scenarios and maintaining a cautious approach can safeguard against potential downturns [5]. - The importance of having a clear trading plan and executing it rigorously is emphasized [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing increased discussion and mixed emotions as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3500 points, a level historically associated with significant market movements [2][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has spent a majority of its time below 3500 points over the past 20 years, leading to a sense of excitement mixed with apprehension as it enters a "minority time" above this threshold [2]. - The 3500-point level is seen as a critical technical indicator for market transitions, having previously marked the beginning of bull markets in 2007, 2015, and 2021, although not every instance has led to sustained upward trends [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on market differentiation rather than just the index, as there is significant valuation disparity among sectors. For instance, as of June 20, 2025, industries like steel and real estate are valued above the historical 60th percentile, while sectors such as agriculture and non-bank financials are below the 10th percentile [6]. - Portfolio management should not be viewed in binary terms of high or low positions. Investors are encouraged to maintain holdings in stocks they are confident in, allowing for a more flexible approach to portfolio allocation based on individual comfort levels with risk [8]. - Investors should prepare for increased market volatility as participation and emotional responses grow. While volatility itself is not inherently risky, it can lead to poor decision-making if not managed with confidence and a clear understanding of investment fundamentals [9].

Group 1 - The company is organizing a nationwide fan meeting for the first time since 2017, focusing on smaller, more in-depth discussions to address user questions effectively [1] - The event will not have any sponsors, aiming to prioritize user engagement and problem-solving over business activities [1] - The meeting locations will be determined based on user registration numbers, allowing for events in smaller cities if enough participants sign up [1] Group 2 - The gold market has seen a significant influx of investors due to rising prices, but the company warns of potential volatility and market corrections [2] - The company plans to share experiences and lessons learned from past market cycles during the upcoming meetings, emphasizing the importance of market awareness and risk management [2] - The next meeting is scheduled in Shenzhen, with additional locations in nearby cities, highlighting the company's commitment to reaching a broader audience [2] Group 3 - Recent gold price movements indicate a volatile market, with key support and resistance levels identified at $3240 and $3250 [3] - The company advises caution in trading strategies, emphasizing the need for flexibility and timely adjustments based on market conditions [5] - Current trading ranges are established between $3290 and $3315, with recommendations to observe market behavior before making decisions [6]