Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed results on July 18, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.05% to reach a new historical high, marking five consecutive weeks of gains [1][4] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.32%, while the S&P 500 saw a slight decrease of 0.01% [4] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 0.6%, with an intraday rise exceeding 2% [1][8] Notable Stocks - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with significant gains including a 31% increase for Linklogis and over 8% for Hesai Technology [8] - Tesla's stock rose by over 3%, while Nvidia reached a new historical high during the day but closed down by 0.34% [5][6] Commodity Market - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up by 0.30% to $3355.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 0.32% to $38.425 per ounce [2][13] - The week saw a cumulative decline in gold prices of 0.25% and a 1.36% decline in silver prices [13] Economic Insights - Citic Securities indicated that the US dollar lacks a strong basis for long-term appreciation, with a continuing trend of "de-dollarization" and a rising preference for non-US assets [11] - The outlook for gold prices may follow a "stair-step" upward pattern due to increasing expectations for interest rate cuts and growing uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different trends are predicted for various commodities, including trend空头, 震荡偏空, 震荡, 震荡偏多, and 趋势多头. Based on quantitative indicators, commodities are classified as 偏空, 震荡, or 偏多 [2][5]. - For different sectors such as macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, specific trading strategies and market outlooks are provided for each commodity. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to moving average support, consider gradually taking profits or adopting a covered call strategy. The market may have a demand for profit - taking due to the release of short - term positive factors [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Pay attention to the liquidity of funds during the tax period, and the bond market may rebound [12]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Market fluctuations are due to the release of second - quarter economic data and the current high profits of steel mills. In the short term, the market may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate in cash - futures positive spreads [15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Affected by industry policy expectations, the black series has risen, and coking coal and coke continue to rebound. In the short term, they are expected to maintain the rebound trend, but in the medium term, they may be weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies [16][17]. Ferroalloys - It is estimated that the supply gap of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will narrow significantly in July. It is recommended to hold short positions as the supply - demand structure weakens marginally [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be considered for short - selling when the market sentiment weakens; glass long - position holders at low levels can consider holding. The market has stabilized and risen today, following the strength of new energy varieties [19]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as reduced risk appetite and increased inventory accumulation expectations. In the future, it can be bought at low prices during the peak consumption season. Alumina: It can be short - term long to repair the discount, but in the long term, there is an oversupply pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state due to supply disturbances and market sentiment [22]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation, but there is no continuous upward driving force due to high supply elasticity [23]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile operation, but due to the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The cotton price is in a volatile rebound. It is recommended to hold long September and short January positions cautiously at high levels. The focus is on macro and supply - demand changes [27][28]. Sugar - The domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile due to low domestic inventory and expected increase in imported sugar [30][32]. Eggs - It is recommended to short on rebounds as the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the futures price is over - valued [34]. Apples - It is recommended to conduct light - position positive spreads. The price may weaken in the short term, and attention should be paid to the output and price of early - maturing apples [35]. Corn - The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price is affected by policy support and substitution from wheat [36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to lightly short. The market is currently in the physiological fruit - dropping period, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term [37]. Live Pigs - It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [38][39]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long term. It is recommended to short at high prices [41]. Fuel Oil - The price is weaker than that of crude oil, and the fundamentals are gradually becoming looser [42]. Plastics - It is recommended to hold put options or be slightly short as the supply - demand situation is weak [43]. Rubber - It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Short - buying on dips can be considered, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level pressure [44]. Methanol - The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to be short after a rebound or consider put options [45]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term [46]. Asphalt - It follows the trend of crude oil, and its fundamentals are in the seasonal off - season with only rigid demand [47]. Polyester Industry Chain - It is not recommended to chase long positions, and short - selling on approaching pressure levels is recommended [48]. Pulp - The 09 contract is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to use strategies to increase income when holding spot goods [49]. Logs - Be cautious when going long, pay attention to the basis change, and consider hedging strategies [49]. Urea - It is recommended to buy on dips as the futures price has a callback demand and there is an upward driving force [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on society, scientific discovery, and the importance of foundational knowledge for the younger generation in adapting to the AI era [1][5][7]. Group 1: AI Development Trends - The next trend in AI development is its penetration into the physical world, transitioning from "perceptual AI" to "generative AI" and now to "reasoning AI," which can understand and generate information [2][3]. - The upcoming wave is "physical AI," which will be applied in robotics and other physical machines, enhancing human capabilities [3]. Group 2: China's Role in AI - China plays a significant role in AI development, with the highest number of research papers published globally. The country excels in open-source projects, which have a global impact [4]. - Open-source models like DeepSeek and Tongyi Qianwen are among the top in the world, benefiting various sectors such as healthcare and finance [4]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Scientific Discovery - AI is poised to revolutionize scientific discovery by enabling a deeper understanding of biological processes, which could lead to advancements in drug design and longevity [5]. - The ability to understand the structure and significance of biological entities through AI presents substantial opportunities [5]. Group 4: Future of Chip Technology - The future of chip technology involves the development of three-dimensional transistors and advanced packaging techniques, with significant innovations expected in silicon photonics [5]. - The transition from single chips to stacked and multi-chip designs is a key focus area for the next two decades [5]. Group 5: Advice for the Younger Generation - Young individuals are encouraged to master foundational skills such as mathematics, reasoning, logic, and programming to effectively interact with AI [6][7]. - Critical thinking is essential for evaluating AI-generated answers, and understanding first principles is crucial for problem-solving [7].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on society, scientific discovery, and the future of chip technology, emphasizing the importance of foundational knowledge for the younger generation in adapting to the AI era [3][5][9]. Group 1: AI Development and Trends - AI is evolving from "perceptual AI" to "generative AI," with capabilities now extending to understanding and generating information across different modalities [5]. - The next wave of AI development is expected to penetrate the physical world, leading to advancements in robotics and other physical machines [5]. - Huang emphasized the significance of "reasoning AI," which can understand and solve complex problems previously unencountered [5]. Group 2: China's Role in AI - Huang noted that China leads the world in the number of research papers published in AI, showcasing its significant contributions to open-source projects [6]. - Open-source models developed in China, such as DeepSeek and Tongyi Qianwen, are recognized as top-tier globally, benefiting various sectors including healthcare and finance [6]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Scientific Discovery - AI is poised to revolutionize scientific discovery by aiding in the understanding of biological structures and processes, which could lead to breakthroughs in drug design and longevity [7]. - Huang highlighted the potential of AI to interpret complex biological data, which could unlock significant opportunities in medicine [7]. Group 4: Future of Chip Technology - Huang discussed the future of chip technology, predicting a shift towards three-dimensional transistors and advanced packaging techniques, such as "CoWoS" [7]. - Innovations in silicon photonics are also anticipated, indicating a promising future for chip development [7]. Group 5: Advice for the Younger Generation - Huang advised young people to focus on mastering foundational skills such as mathematics, reasoning, logic, and programming to effectively engage with AI [9]. - He stressed the importance of critical thinking to evaluate AI-generated answers and to articulate problems clearly when interacting with AI [9].