近年来，中国房地产市场的风云变幻成为了社会各界热议的焦点，特别是回想起2017年马云对房产未来 的预言，如今看来，其影响力正逐渐显现。 想当年，楼市正处于鼎盛时期，马云的言论并未引起广泛重视。然而，时至今日，2025年下半年，楼市 格局已发生了翻天覆地的变化。在东北的鹤岗、阜新等地，房产价格已跌至谷底，几万元即可轻松购置 一套住宅。而在深圳、上海等一线城市，房价也普遍下滑了约30%，即便是深圳南山科技园的次新房， 价格也遭遇了大幅度下跌。这一系列变化，使得人们开始重新审视马云的预言。 这一转变的核心在于供需关系的根本性变化。最新统计数据显示，全国住房总量已超过6亿栋，足以容 纳30亿人口，远远超过了我国当前的14亿人口需求。人口结构的变化也加剧了这一趋势。00后人口较90 后减少了4700万，而00后至10后的人口总数较80后至90后更是减少了1.1亿。随着"421"家庭结构逐渐成 为主流，住房需求呈现出结构性减少的趋势。 与此同时，城镇化率的不断提升也导致新增购房需求显著减少。据预测，2026年全国小学生人数将减少 263万，这进一步表明需求端正在持续萎缩。在这样的背景下，政策风向也在悄然转变，楼市正经历着 ...

近年来，关于中国房地产市场的讨论持续升温，特别是回想起2017年马云关于未来房产价值的预言，如 今看来似乎正逐渐显现其影响力。 那时，楼市正如日中天，马云的言论并未引起太多重视。然而，时间流转至2025年下半年，楼市格局已 悄然发生改变。在东北的鹤岗、阜新等地，几万元即可购置一套房产，而在深圳、上海等一线城市，房 价普遍下滑约30%，就连深圳南山科技园的次新房价格也遭遇了大幅度下跌。这些变化使得不少人对马 云的预言开始重新审视。 这一转变的核心在于供需关系的根本性逆转。最新数据显示，全国住房总量已超过6亿栋，足以容纳30 亿人口，远超我国当前的14亿人口需求。人口结构的变化也加剧了这一趋势，00后人口较90后减少了 4700万，而00后至10后的人口总数较80后至90后更是少了1.1亿。随着"421"家庭结构成为主流，住房需 求呈现出结构性减少的趋势。 期房销售模式也在逐步退出历史舞台，现房销售占比从2020年的10.5%大幅上升至2024年的26.5%，预 计未来几年将继续提升，购房者面临烂尾楼的风险将大幅降低。 与此同时，城镇化率已接近70%，新增购房需求显著减少。预计2026年全国小学生人数将减少263 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in the first half of 2025 showed a "mixed" pattern. Exports remained resilient, the growth rate of social retail sales increased significantly, but there were "hidden concerns" behind the growth. The decline in real estate investment continued to widen, and it will take time for prices to stabilize [4]. - The intensity of "rush exports" is expected to weaken in the second half of the year. The sales and production of the household appliance industry may cool down, which will affect social retail sales and industrial added value. The decline in real estate investment will continue to expand, and it is necessary to pay attention to the incremental support for urban renewal funds and the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model. It will take time for prices to stabilize [4][5]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. What are the new changes in exports? - **Tariff situation**: The average tariff rate of the United States on China is around 40%, an increase of 29 percentage points compared to before Trump took office. The exemption of some commodities in April 2025 accounted for 24% of China's exports to the United States in 2024 [10]. - **Export data**: In May 2025, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. In RMB, exports increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 2.1%. Exports to the US and India decreased significantly, while exports to the UK and the EU increased significantly. The export of labor - intensive goods mostly had negative growth, but the export of clothing and toys rebounded [13]. - **Export delivery value**: The year - on - year decline in export delivery value was obvious. The new export order index moved down from the previous central level, and the kinetic energy of new export orders weakened [18][22]. 2. What policy expectations are there? Consumption policy - **Policy introduction**: In the past year, many consumption - promoting policies have been introduced, indicating that there is potential in the consumption market. However, China's consumption rate is low, and there are also structural problems in consumption [26]. - **Reasons for low consumption rate**: The main factors determining the household consumption rate are consumption ability and marginal consumption propensity. China's income structure shows obvious differentiation, and the imperfect social security system makes residents have a strong preventive savings motivation [33][38]. - **Policy measures**: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses the problems of consumption ability and consumption tendency by increasing income and reducing burdens. The "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" further expands the scope of financial support for consumption, and the focus of consumption policies may shift to the service consumption field in the future [44][49][52]. Real - estate policy - **City renewal action**: The Politburo meeting in April proposed to intensify the implementation of the urban renewal action, which helps the real - estate investment to stabilize. The key point of follow - up attention is whether there will be incremental support for urban renewal funds [53]. - **Real - estate sales model**: The transition to the spot - sale model means the end of the high - turnover model of real - estate enterprises. The supporting policies, especially the financing policy, are not clear, which affects the funds of real - estate enterprises. It is necessary to pay attention to the introduction of a financing system compatible with the new real - estate development model [5][63]. Infrastructure policy - **Investment situation**: From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year - on - year. If the scale of land reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the special bond funds invested in traditional infrastructure fields may be less than in 2024 [64]. - **Structural differentiation**: In the context of debt resolution, infrastructure construction with the central government as the construction and expenditure subject may be stronger, while that with local governments as the subject may be weaker. The investment structure differentiation may continue [66]. - **Development space**: Railway investment still has room for development, and canal construction is in full swing. It is estimated that the overall growth rate of infrastructure in 2025 will be around 7.0% [66][70][73]. 3. Can prices stabilize and rebound? - **Price influencing factors**: The impact of currency on prices depends on the supply - demand relationship. Increasing the money supply may lead to an imbalance between supply and demand and make it difficult for prices to rise. The key to boosting prices is to expand effective demand and smooth the supply - demand cycle [76]. - **Policy measures**: The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain sufficient liquidity, and create a good monetary and financial environment for the reasonable recovery of prices [76]. - **PPI situation**: The tail - wagging factor in the first half of the year continued to drag down the performance of PPI, and it will take time for prices to recover [80].

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of "existing house sales" is being implemented across at least 32 provinces and cities in China since 2024, which will have profound impacts on real estate companies and local governments [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The central government has prioritized the promotion of existing house sales as a key policy agenda, emphasizing its role in preventing delivery risks [3][4]. - By the end of 2024, the policy will be fully implemented, marking a significant shift in the housing market dynamics [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Real Estate Companies - Existing house sales will increase financial pressure on developers, requiring them to adapt their financing models as they can only recoup funds after project completion [9]. - The development cycle will lengthen, compelling companies to focus more on quality and customer needs in project planning and execution [9]. - The shift to existing house sales will accelerate the consolidation of the industry, favoring larger firms while putting smaller companies at greater risk [9][11]. Group 3: Changes in Business Models - Companies are likely to transition towards lighter asset models, increasing their focus on construction and management services rather than heavy investment in land acquisition [11][12]. - The proportion of residential construction projects is expected to rise, with more firms entering the construction management sector [11][13]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of construction management in first-tier cities is expected to increase, while second-tier cities will remain stable and third- and fourth-tier cities may experience a decline [17]. - The existing house sales model will lead to a more competitive environment in the construction management sector, with larger firms dominating the market [21]. Group 5: Financing and Payment Structures - The existing house sales model will necessitate changes in payment structures for construction management projects, linking payments more closely to project milestones rather than sales revenue [20][21]. - Companies will need to collaborate with local governments to secure land and mitigate financial constraints, leading to a rise in joint ventures and partnerships [20].

Core Viewpoint - The recent draft measures from Xinyang, Henan province, propose the implementation of a "current housing sales" model, which aims to enhance the management of pre-sale housing and ensure better protection of buyers' rights [1][2]. Group 1: Current Housing Sales Model - The new measures stipulate that all newly developed residential properties on newly sold land must adopt the current housing sales model, requiring projects to reach a certain construction progress before applying for pre-sale permits [1][2]. - The current housing sales model is seen as a significant reform direction in the real estate sector, aimed at improving the quality of housing products and ensuring better financial assessments by developers when acquiring land [1][2][3]. Group 2: Impacts on Developers and Market - The implementation of the current housing sales model is expected to reduce risks associated with traditional pre-sale housing, such as discrepancies in property delivery and project failures, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of housing projects [2][3]. - Developers will need to focus more on quality in project planning, design, and construction to attract buyers, which could lead to an overall improvement in product quality within the industry [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Financial Considerations - The new regulations will enforce stricter conditions for applying for pre-sale permits, requiring developers to provide substantial evidence of construction progress and financial investment [2][3]. - Financial institutions will need to adapt to the current housing sales model, as it may extend the sales recovery period for developers, necessitating stronger financial support to ensure stability in the sector [3][4].

Summary of Poly Developments Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Poly Developments - **Date**: April 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Performance - In April 2025, Poly Developments' subscription was concentrated in 38 core cities, accounting for 91% of total subscriptions, with first and second-tier cities making up approximately 80% [2][5] - The sales of incremental projects maintained a high proportion of 61% in April, indicating the company's strength in core areas and new projects [2][5] - The overall visitor volume in April 2025 decreased by about 40% year-on-year, but the top 50 star projects contributed 50% of the visits, showing increased attractiveness of leading projects [2][9] - During the May Day holiday, the subscription amount remained stable compared to last year, attributed to improved conversion rates and significant sales efforts at the end of April [2][10] Financial Performance - The total amount of new expansion projects from January to April 2025 reached 30.8 billion yuan, with an equity ratio of 82%, marking a recent high [2][11] - As of the end of April 2025, the comprehensive interest-bearing debt cost for Poly Developments fell below 3% for the first time, at 2.96%, with new debt costs at 2.8% [2][13][14] Sales and Inventory Management - In April 2025, the contract amount was 24.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, with a cumulative contract amount of 87.7 billion yuan from January to April, down 9% year-on-year [4] - The overall sales rate in April was not very high, with first-tier cities at 45% and second and third-tier cities between 35% and 40% [2][8] - The push sales amount in April was 19 billion yuan, with the last five days contributing 56% of the total, primarily in preparation for May Day sales [2][7] Expansion and Investment Strategy - Poly Developments disclosed four new expansion projects in April, totaling 450,000 square meters and an investment amount of 12.8 billion yuan, representing a 400% increase year-on-year [2][11] - The company aims to achieve an annual investment target of 100 billion yuan, having already realized about 40 billion yuan by April [12] Future Outlook - The company expects market heat to rise in the coming months, with several new projects scheduled to launch in May and June [15] - Recent government policies, including interest rate cuts, are anticipated to positively impact the real estate industry, enhancing liquidity and supporting recovery [16] Challenges and Adaptations - The shift to a current housing sales model is expected to change the industry dynamics, requiring companies to enhance their comprehensive capabilities [17][18] - Poly Developments has established a fast construction system to reduce the time from land acquisition to completion to 14 months, with some projects potentially completed in 12 months [3][19] Internal Structure - Poly Developments primarily handles development in most cities, with only a few cities, such as Shenzhen, managed by Poly Properties [21]