1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Core Viewpoint - Recently, consecutive cold repairs of glass production lines have led to a concentrated contraction in short - term supply, improving the phased supply - demand structure. Coupled with positive macro expectations, short - term prices may maintain a shockingly strong operation. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, with intraday shockingly weak performance. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, indicating a short - term continuation of the shockingly strong signal. The intraday pressure is near the 40/60 weekly moving averages, and the support is near the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 615,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 38,159 lots. The intraday high was 1168, the low was 1129, and the closing price was 1144, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, trading in mainstream areas was good, with a slight reduction in inventory and price increases. In North China, market sentiment declined, and shipments were mainly pre - orders. In East China, the market center shifted upward, with fair rigid - demand shipments but no inventory - building intention. In Central and South China, there was little fluctuation, most enterprises kept prices stable, and a few raised prices, mainly for rigid demand [1] - The basis in North China was - 124 yuan/ton, with a spot price of 1020 [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03%. The 1000 - ton/day design capacity of Hunan Qibin Optoelectronic Technology Co., Ltd.'s Chenzhou No. 1 line is expected to be shut down for cold repair today, and Yunnan Diankai Energy - Saving Technology Co., Ltd. with a design capacity of 520 tons/day stopped feeding last night, and output is expected to further shrink [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is showing a downward trend, and most regions are driven by sales policies, improved market sentiment, and favorable production capacity reduction, with enterprise inventory shifting to the middle and lower reaches and expected to continue to decline [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Currently, engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable order days are decreasing, mainly concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are still mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the exit of some enterprises' production capacity. Six glass production lines were shut down for cold repair before New Year's Day, and three more were cold - repaired this week, further shrinking supply. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real - estate demand has not improved [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will be further exacerbated in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream trading and processing links to the upstream raw sheet production and supply end, and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will be greater, with small production lines of around 600 tons per day likely to be shut down. The daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction, and without large - scale inventory reduction, the spot price has limited room for improvement [1][33][40]. - In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs of glass production lines and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but it is difficult to bottom - fish. The annual futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Trend Review - In 2025, the glass market showed a trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling again, with the futures weighted fluctuating between 958 - 1,470 yuan/ton. The overall supply exceeded demand, and high inventories in the mid - upstream suppressed the spot price and affected the futures rebound. Policies such as "Supply - side 2.0" and "Anti - involution" temporarily boosted the market, but the market sentiment weakened after the macro - meetings, and the market returned to the weak fundamentals [6]. - At the beginning of the year, the rescue of Vanke by the Shenzhen government and the rumored new energy - consumption restriction policy boosted the price. However, concerns about downstream demand due to the poor resumption of work at construction sites and insufficient downstream orders led to a setback in the price increase. In February, high inventory in Hubei led to price cuts, and the failure of policy expectations and the impact of international factors caused the futures to decline in the first half of the year. In July, policy expectations drove a short - term rise, but subsequent market sentiment cooling led to a sharp correction. In October, the traditional peak - season demand was disappointing, and the market turned down again. Near the end of the year, cold - repairs of production lines slightly pushed up the price, but the upward space of near - month contracts was limited [6][8]. 3.2 2025 Glass Supply and Demand Review and Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Review and Analysis - From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of flat glass in China was 805 million weight boxes, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The daily melting volume remained stable below 160,000 tons. There were 5 newly - ignited production lines with a total new daily melting volume of 3,610 tons, 17复产 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 12,100 tons, and 28 cold - repaired or shut - down production lines with a total daily melting volume of 18,370 tons. As of early December, the daily melting volume was 156,155 tons per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the beginning of the year and 1.8% year - on - year [9]. 3.2.2 Demand Review and Analysis - **Deep - processing demand**: From January to October 2025, the output of tempered glass decreased by 6.8%, and the average operating rate of low - e was 44.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Mid - stream glass processing plants had a cold business due to factors such as tight funds, lack of demand, and the risk of business closures. Mid - stream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the active purchasing times corresponded to the low - price intervals of the spot [17]. - **Terminal demand**: The real - estate data continued to deteriorate in 2025. Although there was a slight improvement in sales in the first half of the year and in construction and completion indicators in the second half, real - estate development investment continued to weaken. In the automotive industry, production and sales increased rapidly due to policies and market factors, and new - energy vehicles became the mainstream in October [20]. 3.2.3 Inventory Review and Analysis - The inventory in the Shahe area remained similar to that of last year, while the inventory in the central China region increased rapidly, with Hubei becoming a price depression. The national factory inventory was generally at a high level of 60 - 70 million weight boxes. Although the inventory decreased in July due to the actions of futures - cash merchants, the social inventory increased in the second half of the year, leading to a decline in the spot and futures prices [23]. 3.3 2026 Glass Supply and Demand Forecast 3.3.1 Supply Forecast - In 2025, the average daily melting volume was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons year - on - year, while the visible inventory of national factories was basically the same as last year, and the invisible social inventory increased significantly. In 2026, the pressure for cold - repairs of production lines will be greater, mainly shutting down small production lines of around 600 tons per day. It is predicted that the daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction. There are 4 potential newly - ignited production lines with a total design capacity of 3,700 tons per day, 5 potential复产 production lines with a total capacity of 3,450 tons per day, and 15 potential cold - repaired production lines with a total capacity of 9,900 tons per day [30]. 3.3.2 Demand Forecast - Since the new construction area has been declining by more than 20% annually since 2022, the demand at the real - estate completion end will continue to decline. The supply - demand mismatch in the glass industry has spread from the real - estate end to the mid - stream trading and processing links. In 2026, the contradiction will further worsen, and the overall demand for glass will still be insufficient, despite the increasing demand for some products such as second - hand housing decoration glass, automotive glass, and electronic ultra - thin glass [33]. 3.3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data from November 2025 to February 2026E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [40]. 3.4 Summary - **Supply - demand contradiction and capacity clearance**: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will continue to worsen in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream to the upstream and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will increase, and it is difficult for the price to rise without a significant reduction in inventory [40]. - **Short - term opportunities and overall trend**: In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but the overall futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [42].