节后黑色观点综述 品种观点 ◆ 钢材 长假期间，唐山迁安普方坯价格持稳，报价 2900 元/吨。消息面上，美 国时间 2 月 20 日，最高法院裁定特朗普根据旨在应对国家紧急状态的法 律所推行的大规模关税无效，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上表示，将对全 球商品加征 10%的进口关税，为期 150 天，以代替被判定违法的紧急关 税，随后在 21 日进一步将税率水平提高至 15%。此次被最高法院砍掉 的对华关税，一共两项，包括"10%对等关税"、"10%芬太尼关税"， 合计 20 个百分点，可以简单概括为先砍 20%再加 15%，我国输美商品 关税负担下降，不过特朗普同时发文强调"第 232 条和第 301 条征收的 关税将继续有效"，表明美国对钢铁、铝行业将依然保持较高的关税壁 垒。整体来看，短期关税降了，但关税博弈远没结束。就基本面而言， 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经跌至电炉谷电与长流程成本以下，静态 估值偏低；驱动方面，宏观端，短期国内处于政策真空期，预计海外关 税政策提振有限，节后重点关注钢材库存增幅，是否超预期累积，我们 估算节后钢材库存处于近年农历同期偏低水平，不过略高于去年同期， 另外关注节后需求恢复进度 ...

双焦：煤矿陆续放假，现货成交趋于冷清 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2026年02月06日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 228/210/172 181/181/181 221/221/221 208/218/234 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 ◼ 近日焦煤期货受印尼煤炭政策消息影响波动较大，情绪及资金交易为主，实质性影响还有待观察。2月5日印尼矿产与 煤炭司司长表示，2026年煤炭开采工作计划的核准文件尚未正式发布，市场上流传的削减信息被官方认定为无效信息。 另司长表示正在研究将2026年煤炭产量目标下调至6亿吨的可行性，并强调减产措施将按比例、差异化措施，且新一 轮产量配额分配的核心考量依据是企业向国家缴纳的非税财政收入。印尼近年煤炭相关政策实际执行落地效果不佳， 往往 ...

证券研究报告 政策开始转向，逢低左侧布局 ——煤炭行业周报（12月第3周） 行业评级：看好 2025年12月20日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2025年12月19日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨0.6%，沪深300指数下跌0.28%，跑赢沪深300指数0.88个百分点。全板块整周23只股价上涨， 13只下跌，1只持平。云维股份涨幅最高，整周涨幅为21.31%。 3.动力煤产业链：截至2025年12月19日，价格方面，环渤海动力煤（Q5500K）指数699元/吨，周环比下跌0.57%，中国进口电煤采购价格指数816元/吨，周环比下跌2.28%。从港 口看，秦皇岛动力煤价格周环比下跌，黄骅港周环比下跌，广州港周环比下跌；从产地看，大同动力煤坑口价环比下跌11.2%，榆林环比下跌2.88%，鄂尔多斯环比下跌2.38%；澳 洲纽卡斯尔煤价周环比上涨0.37%。库存方面，截至2025年12月18日，全社会库存为18275万吨，周环比减少22万吨，年同比增加3786万吨； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the coal and coke market experienced significant fluctuations, with coal policies playing a decisive role in correcting supply - demand imbalances and guiding prices back to rational levels. In 2026, the supply - demand situation of coal and coke is expected to remain generally balanced, but short - term supply - demand mismatches caused by policy changes cannot be ignored. The prices of coal and coke will still fluctuate with the black sector, but the volatility will decrease significantly compared to 2025 [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Coal Coke Market Review 2025 Coking Coal Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coking coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend in 2025. The futures price of the main coking coal contract dropped from 1,174 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 709 yuan/ton, a decline of 40%, and then rebounded to 1,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 87%. The spot price fluctuations were lower than those of futures. For example, the price of Shaheyi Mongolian coal No. 5 dropped by 27% and then rebounded by 52% [7]. - **Supply Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal supply was loose due to relaxed production control policies. After the central government's policies and inspections in July, the growth of coking coal production was curbed. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 438 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [8]. - **Import Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports decreased significantly. In the second half, imports gradually increased. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports in 2025 will reach 116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Mongolia's coking coal imports showed a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, while the imports from the US and Australia decreased [35]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, coking coal demand increased throughout the year. It is predicted that the cumulative pig iron production will reach 921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) will reach 559 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory was continuously reduced in 2025, and the inventory structure was optimized. At the beginning of the year, the inventory was at a high level, and then it gradually shifted to the middle and lower reaches [56]. 2025 Coke Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coke price also experienced a V - shaped reversal in 2025. The futures price of the main coke contract dropped by 30% in the first half and then increased by 43% in the second half. The spot price fluctuations were also lower than those of coking coal [11]. - **Supply Side**: Coke production increased slightly in 2025. Due to insufficient coking profits, coking plants adopted a production - to - order strategy. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Coke consumption generally followed downstream demand. In 2025, the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) is predicted to reach 398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. However, the export situation was not optimistic, with a predicted cumulative net export of 679,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [12]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory was moderately reduced in 2025. The inventory of coking plants decreased to a low level in the second half of the year, the steel mills' inventory remained at a medium level, and the port inventory fluctuated at a medium - high level [80]. 2026 Coal Coke Supply - Demand Forecast 2026 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: In 2026, coking coal production is likely to continue to grow moderately, but short - term supply mismatches caused by coal policies cannot be ignored. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [13]. - **Import**: The coking coal import situation may improve in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports will reach 128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. Mongolia and Canada's coking coal imports are expected to increase, while the US coking coal is unlikely to enter the Chinese market [13]. - **Demand**: Coking coal consumption will continue to increase in 2026, following the growth of steel production. It is predicted that the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [14]. 2026 Coke Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: Coke production may continue to grow slightly in 2026. The coking industry still faces problems such as over - capacity and low industrial concentration. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [15]. - **Demand**: Coke consumption may perform relatively well in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. However, the export scale is difficult to improve, with a predicted cumulative net export of 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6% [15].