1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, coking coal futures have fluctuated significantly due to news about Indonesian coal policies, with trading mainly driven by sentiment and funds. The substantial impact remains to be observed. The actual implementation of Indonesia's coal - related policies has been poor in recent years, and it is expected that the reduction of coal production this time will also be less effective in practice. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Indonesian coal - related policies [4]. - Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage and replenishment are almost over. Next week, coal mines will enter the peak period of shutdown and holiday. Downstream transportation is mainly based on previous orders, and prices tend to be stable. The transaction of imported Mongolian coal at ports is also gradually cooling down. In the futures market, the weight of fundamentals has decreased, the trading main line is not clear, and it is expected that the fluctuations will still be large, but there are no trend - based opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: It is expected that the price will still fluctuate greatly, but there are no trend - based opportunities. It is recommended to focus on band trading, and cautious investors are advised to wait and see. In subsequent operations, one can continue to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices after a callback [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Coking coal market**: - **Spot price**: This week, the spot prices of coking coal in the production areas have risen and fallen. The price of Mongolian coal has fluctuated greatly following the futures market. Downstream coking and steel enterprises have basically completed their winter storage and replenishment and have shifted to rigid - demand procurement. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market transactions are gradually cooling down, and prices are stabilizing [9]. - **Domestic supply**: This week, the production capacity utilization rate of coal mines has declined, and some coal mines have started to shut down for holidays. The production capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines is 86.67% (- 2.46%). As the Spring Festival approaches, next week will be the peak period for coal mines to shut down for holidays. The average holiday duration is 10.1 days, slightly less than last year [9]. - **Imported Mongolian coal**: This week, the daily average number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased by 215 compared to the previous week. It is expected that the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal will remain at a moderately high level next week, and the port inventory still faces certain pressure. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the Spring Festival in 2026, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17 - 20), and will also be closed on February 15 and February 22 (Sundays) [9]. - **Demand**: This week, the coke production has been basically stable. The total coke production is 110.38 (+ 0.53) tons. It is expected that the coke production will remain basically stable next week, with small fluctuations [9]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total coking coal inventory is 4385.1 (+ 67.1) tons. The inventory of coking coal mines, ports, and Mongolian coal ports has decreased slightly, while the inventory of downstream coking plants has increased [9]. - **Coke market**: - **Spot price**: The first round of coke price increase was implemented last week, and this week, the coke price has remained stable. Currently, the coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is difficult for the coke price to continue to rise. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week [10]. - **Supply**: This week, the coke production has been basically stable. The total coke production is 110.38 (+ 0.53) tons. It is expected that the coke production will remain basically stable next week, with small fluctuations [10]. - **Demand**: This week, the hot metal production has increased slightly. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 228.58 (+ 0.60) tons. It is expected that the hot metal production will remain basically stable in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and attention should be paid to the recovery speed of steel mills' hot metal production after the Spring Festival [10]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total coke inventory is 1042.8 (+ 17.2) tons. The inventory of coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports has increased [10]. - **Profit**: According to Steelhome data, the average profit per ton of coke nationwide is - 10 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is 12 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 45 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia is - 47 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 40 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking coal production**: This week, the verified production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.7%, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the previous week. The daily average production of raw coal is 192.5 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons compared to the previous week. The raw coal inventory is 546.9 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons compared to the previous week. The daily average production of clean coal is 75.5 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons compared to the previous week. The clean coal inventory is 264.7 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons compared to the previous week [13]. - **Imported Mongolian coal customs clearance**: The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at ports has fluctuated at a high level. During the Spring Festival, the ports will be closed for four days [15]. - **Hot metal production**: The hot metal production has been fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of hot metal production after the Spring Festival [20]. - **Price data**: Includes domestic coking coal prices, imported coking coal prices, coke prices, coking coal basis, coke basis, coking coal monthly spreads, and coke monthly spreads, etc., which are presented in the form of charts [27][30][37] etc. - **Inventory data**: Includes coking coal inventory (coking coal mines, ports, coking enterprises, and steel mills), coke inventory (coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports), etc., which are presented in the form of charts [96][99][102] etc.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The coal sector has shown resilience, outperforming the CSI 300 index with a weekly increase of 0.6% compared to a 0.28% decline in the index, resulting in a 0.88 percentage point outperformance [2] - Key coal mining companies reported a decrease in average daily sales and production, with average daily sales at 6.74 million tons, down 10.2% week-on-week and 10.9% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights a significant drop in coal prices, with the Q5500K index at 699 RMB/ton, down 0.57% week-on-week, indicating a bearish price trend in the market [3] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 6.74 million tons, a decrease of 10.2% week-on-week and 10.9% year-on-year [2] - The total coal inventory (including port storage) reached 25.71 million tons, an increase of 2% week-on-week but a decrease of 14% year-on-year [2][8] Demand Side - The report indicates a decline in coal consumption in the power and chemical industries, with power generation coal consumption down 2.8% year-on-year, while chemical industry consumption increased by 13.8% [2] Price Trends - The report notes a downward trend in coal prices, with various coal types experiencing price drops, including a 2.28% decrease in imported coal prices [3][4] - The average price of coking coal at Jing Tang Port was reported at 1,700 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3% increase week-on-week, while other prices remained stable [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend coal companies, particularly in the thermal coal sector, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal [6][32] - It emphasizes the potential for policy support as coal prices remain low, advising investors to adopt a patient approach while waiting for policy developments [6][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the coal and coke market experienced significant fluctuations, with coal policies playing a decisive role in correcting supply - demand imbalances and guiding prices back to rational levels. In 2026, the supply - demand situation of coal and coke is expected to remain generally balanced, but short - term supply - demand mismatches caused by policy changes cannot be ignored. The prices of coal and coke will still fluctuate with the black sector, but the volatility will decrease significantly compared to 2025 [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Coal Coke Market Review 2025 Coking Coal Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coking coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend in 2025. The futures price of the main coking coal contract dropped from 1,174 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 709 yuan/ton, a decline of 40%, and then rebounded to 1,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 87%. The spot price fluctuations were lower than those of futures. For example, the price of Shaheyi Mongolian coal No. 5 dropped by 27% and then rebounded by 52% [7]. - **Supply Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal supply was loose due to relaxed production control policies. After the central government's policies and inspections in July, the growth of coking coal production was curbed. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 438 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [8]. - **Import Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports decreased significantly. In the second half, imports gradually increased. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports in 2025 will reach 116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Mongolia's coking coal imports showed a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, while the imports from the US and Australia decreased [35]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, coking coal demand increased throughout the year. It is predicted that the cumulative pig iron production will reach 921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) will reach 559 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory was continuously reduced in 2025, and the inventory structure was optimized. At the beginning of the year, the inventory was at a high level, and then it gradually shifted to the middle and lower reaches [56]. 2025 Coke Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coke price also experienced a V - shaped reversal in 2025. The futures price of the main coke contract dropped by 30% in the first half and then increased by 43% in the second half. The spot price fluctuations were also lower than those of coking coal [11]. - **Supply Side**: Coke production increased slightly in 2025. Due to insufficient coking profits, coking plants adopted a production - to - order strategy. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Coke consumption generally followed downstream demand. In 2025, the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) is predicted to reach 398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. However, the export situation was not optimistic, with a predicted cumulative net export of 679,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [12]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory was moderately reduced in 2025. The inventory of coking plants decreased to a low level in the second half of the year, the steel mills' inventory remained at a medium level, and the port inventory fluctuated at a medium - high level [80]. 2026 Coal Coke Supply - Demand Forecast 2026 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: In 2026, coking coal production is likely to continue to grow moderately, but short - term supply mismatches caused by coal policies cannot be ignored. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [13]. - **Import**: The coking coal import situation may improve in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports will reach 128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. Mongolia and Canada's coking coal imports are expected to increase, while the US coking coal is unlikely to enter the Chinese market [13]. - **Demand**: Coking coal consumption will continue to increase in 2026, following the growth of steel production. It is predicted that the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [14]. 2026 Coke Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: Coke production may continue to grow slightly in 2026. The coking industry still faces problems such as over - capacity and low industrial concentration. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [15]. - **Demand**: Coke consumption may perform relatively well in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. However, the export scale is difficult to improve, with a predicted cumulative net export of 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6% [15].