1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of soybeans is currently in a stalemate due to selling pressure and cautious purchasing by traders, but the price correction is limited by factors such as the graded - pricing acquisition by CGC and the expected increase in acquisition at more depots. The futures market is strong, closing at a multi - month high, and the bottom of the new - season domestic soybean price is becoming clearer [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the soybean market. Bullish factors include the acquisition by CGC's Hulunbuir depot, the reduction in high - protein soybean production, and the absence of auction arrangements this week. Bearish factors are the possible resumption and expansion of US soybean imports after the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement and the extended selling period due to selling pressure at the grass - roots level [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the Soybean No.1 11 contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.11% and a historical percentile of 33.6% [3]. - **Risk Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling 30% of the Soybean No.1 futures contract A2601 when the price is above 4100 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on contracts A2603 and A2605 after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - Spot selling pressure restrains the market, and traders are cautious about purchasing at high prices, focusing on high - quality supplies. The spot price is in a short - term stalemate [4]. - CGC's graded - pricing acquisition supports the price of high - quality soybeans and props up the market, limiting the price correction [4]. - Transportation capacity restricts the outward shipment from the Northeast production area. The price of high - quality soybeans in the South production area is firm, and the ordinary soybean market is stable. The reduction in production supports the price [4]. - On Wednesday, the Soybean No.1 futures market had a large - volume increase, reversing the adjustment since October 29 and reaching a multi - month closing high. The main 01 contract rose 47 yuan/ton to close at 4123 yuan, with slightly lower open interest and record - high trading volume. The number of registered warehouse receipts was approximately 10,088 hands [4]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: CGC's Hulunbuir depot started to purchase new - season domestic soybeans on the 6th, with graded pricing, sending a market - supporting signal. The reduction in high - protein soybean production supports market sentiment and purchasing behavior, and there are no auction arrangements this week [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: After the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, China may resume and expand the import of US soybeans, which is negative for domestic low - and medium - protein soybean supplies. The selling period at the grass - roots level may be extended due to selling pressure [5]. 3.4 Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3920 yuan, 3890 yuan, 3960 yuan, and 3980 yuan respectively [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract for domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun on November 5, 2025, was - 203 yuan, - 165 yuan, - 95 yuan, and - 75 yuan respectively [6]. 3.5 Futures Price - On November 5, 2025, compared with November 4, the closing prices of Soybean No.1 contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 increased by 4 yuan (0.10%), 68 yuan (1.68%), 70 yuan (1.72%), 68 yuan (1.66%), 71 yuan (1.73%), and 68 yuan (1.66%) respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of tight supply of high - protein edible soybeans supports the anti - seasonal price increase. However, with the progress of Sino - US negotiations to resume agricultural product trade, the domestic soybean market is expected to face short - term pressure. The market also needs to pay attention to whether the selling pressure emerges and the behavior changes caused by sentiment fermentation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Prediction and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Prediction**: The predicted monthly price range for the bean one 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.37% and a historical percentile of 26.0% [2]. - **Risk Strategies**: - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long positions due to large new - bean selling pressure in autumn or weakened bargaining power during the concentrated listing period, strategies include shorting bean one futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100, and selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at 30 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [2]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw - material prices, the strategy is to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are considered after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2]. Core Contradictions and Market Influences - **Likely Positive Factors**: The decrease in the national high - protein soybean yield supports market sentiment, and the uninitiated state - reserve purchase restricts price decline. But the impact of yield reduction is gradually weakening [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations to resume agricultural product trade is negative for the domestic soybean market. Also, as repayment orders are executed, the rigid demand at the procurement end may decline, and there is still a bottleneck in the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans [3]. Market Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 30, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3900, 3860, 3940, and 3970 respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 203, - 253, - 173, and - 143 [3]. - **Futures Closing Price**: On October 30, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of bean one contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 decreased by - 0.29%, - 0.24%, - 0.36%, - 0.48%, - 0.41%, and - 0.50% respectively [5].

Core Insights - The training conference organized by Shengda Metal Resources Co., Ltd. and Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd. focused on exploring new directions in the non-ferrous metal industry and the role of futures in supporting the real economy [1][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Copper prices have broken out of a three-month range since September, marking a significant upward movement after a historical high in May 2024, with supply disruptions providing a bullish outlook [6] - The aluminum industry is experiencing explosive growth driven by China's dual carbon goals, with a cap on electrolytic aluminum production at 45 million tons, emphasizing the importance of recycled aluminum in achieving green and low-carbon objectives [7][9] - Silver prices have recently surpassed levels not seen since the 1980s, driven by macroeconomic factors and a persistent supply-demand gap, with a projected annual balance gap of 4,000 tons [10] Group 2: Expert Insights - Experts shared insights on various metals, including copper, aluminum, silver, and nickel, discussing market trends, supply-demand dynamics, and potential future developments [3][12] - The nickel market is influenced by supply disruptions in Indonesia and cost support, with expectations of a prolonged accumulation cycle and limited price movement [13] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - Jinrui Futures has been committed to integrating finance and industry, providing high-quality platforms for communication and cooperation, and enhancing risk management strategies for enterprises [13][14] - The collaboration between Jinrui Futures and Shengda Metal aims to clarify market trends and optimize risk management strategies for participating companies, thereby supporting cost reduction and risk prevention in the industry [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is supported by bullish factors in the short term, with strong buying enthusiasm from funds, but the industry should be cautious about hedging after the sharp rise [3] - The current upward trend of the soybean market is due to factors such as the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs. The continuous decoupling from US soybeans due to Sino - US economic and trade relations provides emotional support [3] - The current rise may be based on the current spot logic, and there is no significant expectation for the long - term supply - demand structure. The core issue is how to solve the problem of the shortage of imported soybeans at the beginning of next year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 24.7% [2] Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with a long spot position, when there is a high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and significant short - term selling pressure, they can short the A2601 soybean No. 1 futures contract at a ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 yuan to lock in planting profits [2] - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens, they can sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a ratio of 30% with a holding range of 30 - 50 to increase the grain - selling price [2] Procurement Management for Buyers - For those with a short spot position who are worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, they should mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. They can go long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2] Market Conditions - On the previous trading day, the soybean market accelerated its rise. The futures market broke through with increasing volume, and the spot prices rose to varying degrees. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1.56% to 4113 yuan, with an increase of 24,600 in positions and a trading volume of over 160,000 contracts, both hitting new highs since the contract was listed. The registered warehouse receipts remained at 7090 [3] Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production and delayed listing in the southern producing areas have increased the demand for goods from the northeastern producing areas, changing the supply - demand structure seasonally [6] - The restraint in the grain - selling sentiment, debt - repayment needs, and increased rigid purchases in the sales areas due to colder weather support the market [6] Bearish Factors - The selling pressure is scattered, and the subsequent listing volume in the southern producing areas will increase [6] - On October 24 at 10:30, CGSG.com plans to auction 65,201 tons of domestic soybeans from 2022 and 2023 [6] - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the rising price suppresses the demand for domestic soybean crushing. The sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [7] Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 23, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3890, 3840, 3920, and 3970 yuan respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 213, - 217, - 137, and - 87 yuan [7] Futures Closing Price - From October 22 to 23, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts all rose, with daily increases of 55, 56, 52, 47, 51, and 55 yuan respectively, and corresponding increases of 1.36%, 1.38%, 1.28%, 1.15%, 1.25%, and 1.34% [7]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Core Viewpoints - After a strong rebound, the market shows a series of changes such as rising grain - selling profits, emerging profits on the futures market, and increasing acquisition costs. The short - term upward trend has slowed down. The spot market is mainly stable, and the futures market has a slight correction. The 01 contract closed lower yesterday, bottomed out and rebounded during the session, closing at 4057 yuan, and the night session was consolidated strongly, closing at 4063 yuan [4]. - This year, the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs have changed the previous price trend of unilateral decline during the new harvest season. Currently, the game between buyers and sellers is relatively balanced, but the pressure of new grain listing still needs to be released. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended under the condition of dispersed selling pressure. In addition, due to the good price situation, the state - reserve acquisition has not yet exerted its strength, which also provides a bottom - support expectation for the later market. Overall, the fundamental pressure of the domestic soybean market has been alleviated, and the price performance is better than the same period in previous years. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the release of the back - end selling pressure [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Strategies Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 18.6% [3]. Risk Strategies Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2601) with a hedging ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 [3]. - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price with a hedging ratio of 30% when the option price is between 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. Procurement Management - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs (short spot exposure), it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. Market Data Spot Price and Basis | Location | Spot Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | Harbin (Domestic Grade 3) | 3890 | - 167 | | Nenjiang (Domestic Grade 3) | 3840 | - 221 | | Jiamusi (Domestic Grade 3) | 3920 | - 141 | | Changchun (Domestic Grade 3) | 3970 | - 91 | [4] Futures Closing Price | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 21 (yuan) | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Daily Change (yuan) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 4038 | 4035 | - 3 | - 0.07% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 4061 | 4057 | - 4 | - 0.10% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 4064 | 4064 | 0 | 0.00% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4100 | 4101 | 1 | 0.02% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4098 | 4096 | - 2 | - 0.05% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4100 | 4096 | - 4 | - 0.10% | [7] Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - After a strong rebound, the short - term upward trend has slowed down. The new grain listing pressure needs to be released, and it remains to be seen whether the downstream acquisition can provide support. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended, but the state - reserve acquisition provides a bottom - support expectation [4]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production in the southern region has led to changes in the acquisition behavior of enterprises, and the grain sources in the northeastern producing areas are valued, which supports the price. - The debt - repayment operation under two - way auctions supports short - term demand, and the rigid acquisition in the sales areas increases as the weather gets colder [6]. Bearish Factors - During the new grain listing period, the spot pressure still needs to be digested, but the selling pressure is relatively dispersed. - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the prices of oil and meal are low, which suppresses the domestic soybean crushing demand, and the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) [1] - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Prediction and Risk Strategy Price Prediction - The predicted price range for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 10.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.8% [2] Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management - 1**: For planting subjects with a large demand for selling new soybeans after autumn harvest but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), the strategy is to short - sell Soybean No. 1 futures (contract A2601) to lock in planting profits when the futures price rebounds. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended entry range is above 4100 yuan [2] - **Inventory Management - 2**: When soybeans are concentratedly listed and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), the strategy is to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended holding range is 30 - 50 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to control procurement costs (short spot exposure), the main strategy is to wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long contracts A2603 and A2605, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The harvest of domestic soybeans is in the final stage. The reduction in production in southern regions has stimulated the acquisition enthusiasm of some subjects, especially for grain sources in the Northeast. Coupled with the relatively restrained selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects this year, the difficulty for enterprises to acquire soybeans has increased in the short term, leading to more price - increasing acquisitions and rising market bullish sentiment [3] - On the futures side, since the opening in October, the Soybean No. 1 futures have rebounded against the spot pressure, contrary to the usual downward - prone trend in October. The main 01 contract has rebounded from around 3900 yuan to nearly 4100 yuan. The basis in the production area has weakened significantly. However, as the futures price enters the August platform range and the hedging space increases, the short - term correction pressure on the futures price has increased [3] - At the policy level, as the price rebounds, the situation of grass - roots grain selling has improved, reducing the urgency of policy - supported storage. The selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects is scattered, and the short - term selling pressure mainly relies on market forces to resolve. The price of domestic soybeans has entered a bottom - grinding stage. The acquisition intensity of oil mills should be monitored as it will have a significant impact on the grain purchase and sales progress [3] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the two - way auction provides short - term support to the market [3] - Soybeans have become one of the focuses of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. With China's continuous zero - import of US soybeans, it has provided emotional support to domestic soybeans [5] - The disasters in southern production areas have increased enterprises' enthusiasm for acquiring soybeans from the Northeast, providing short - term support for price rebounds [5] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - During the new - grain listing period, the spot pressure needs to be digested [5] - The low transaction rate of the state - reserve soybean auction (4345 tons out of 40422 tons at a reserve price of 3900 yuan) indicates that the enthusiasm for spot grain grabbing is relatively rational [5] Group 4: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 21, 2025, the basis data for different regions are as follows: in Harbin (Grade 3 domestic soybeans), the price is 3890 yuan with a basis of - 171; in Nenjiang, 3840 yuan with a basis of - 246; in Jiamusi, 3920 yuan with a basis of - 166; in Changchun, 3970 yuan with a basis of - 116 [6] Futures Price - On October 21, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of different Soybean No. 1 contracts decreased. For example, the 11 - contract decreased by 27 yuan to 4038 yuan (- 0.66%); the 01 - contract decreased by 25 yuan to 4061 yuan (- 0.61%); the 03 - contract decreased by 18 yuan to 4064 yuan (- 0.44%); the 05 - contract decreased by 12 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.29%); the 07 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4098 yuan (- 0.34%); the 09 - contract decreased by 17 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.41%) [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 15, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 8.94% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 6.5% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai Nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using NI main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month NI contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [2] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, using SS main contract, sell direction, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell call options, using over-the-counter/on-exchange options, sell direction, 50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production cost, using far-month SS contract, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] - Strategy 2: Sell put options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, sell direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan [3] - Strategy 3: Buy out-of-the-money call options, using on-exchange/over-the-counter options, buy direction, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel prices fluctuated during the day, with no significant changes in fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts this year at the macro level, and there is a certain easing sentiment in Sino-US tariffs [3] - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia announced regulations for quota application in 2026. Enterprises need to resubmit new annual RKAB applications for 2026. The overall quota in 2025 is somewhat excessive, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews [3] - In the new energy sector, it will enter the peak season, and the downstream procurement demand remains high. The current quotation has been rising for several consecutive weeks. The market circulation is tight, the inventory is low, and there are still inquiries. It may continue to be strong in the future [3] - The price of nickel iron lacks upward momentum recently, and the overall center of gravity has declined significantly. Tsingshan's latest order was concluded at 945, about 10 yuan/nickel point lower than the previous level. Under the pressure of stainless steel profits and weak demand, it may run weakly. The downward space of the downstream has expanded to some extent after the loss of support from nickel iron [3] - After the holiday, the spot trading of stainless steel remains calm, and the pessimistic sentiment of "peak season without peak" is strong. In terms of exports, the WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal, and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year has promoted positive sentiment in stainless steel exports [3][5] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Interpretations Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [6] - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay [6] - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [6] - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax rate on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal [6] - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year [6] Bearish Factors - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The Sino-US tariff issue has resurfaced [6] - The center of gravity of nickel iron has moved down, and the bottom support has weakened [6] - Stainless steel shows "peak season without peak", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6] Group 6: Market Data Nickel - Shanghai Nickel Main Contract: Latest value 121,180 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan, 0% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 120,830 yuan/ton, down 580 yuan, -0.48% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 120,990 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 121,210 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan, -0.49% change [6] - LME Nickel 3M: Latest value 15,104 US dollars/ton, down 76 US dollars, -0.53% change [6] - Trading Volume: 83,761 lots, down 26,323 lots, -23.91% change [6] - Open Interest: 68,681 lots, down 4,426 lots, -6.05% change [6] - Warehouse Receipts: 26,558 tons, up 1,531 tons, 6.12% change [6] - Basis of Main Contract: -460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan, -38.7% change [6] Stainless Steel - Stainless Steel Main Contract: Latest value 12,560 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan, 0% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1: Latest value 12,540 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan, -0.75% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2: Latest value 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan, -0.71% change [7] - Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3: Latest value 12,660 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, 0.04% change [7] - Trading Volume: 113,216 lots, down 37,540 lots, -24.90% change [7] - Open Interest: 193,490 lots, up 3,239 lots, 1.70% change [7] - Warehouse Receipts: 84,007 tons, down 490 tons, -0.58% change [7] - Basis of Main Contract: 805 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan, 12.59% change [7] Group 7: Inventory Data - Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel: 43,694 tons, up 2,866 tons [8] - LME Nickel Inventory: 246,756 tons, up 3,498 tons [8] - Social Inventory of Stainless Steel: 905.6 tons, down 3.4 tons [8] - Nickel Pig Iron Inventory: 29,236 tons, up 584 tons [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday decline of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel was mainly affected by the broader market, and the fundamental logic temporarily failed. The quota for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2026, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with strong downstream demand. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum, and stainless steel may be weak due to profit pressure and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and macro - level attention should be paid to the subsequent development of Sino - US tariffs [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai Nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.78% and a historical percentile of 2.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [2]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month Shanghai Nickel contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [2]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory management**: When facing product price decline and inventory impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio, both with a strategy grade of 2 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When worried about raw material price increases, buy far - month stainless steel contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), with strategy grades of 3, 1, and 3 respectively [3]. Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel declined due to the broader market. Nickel ore quota in Indonesia may decrease in 2026. The new energy sector is in a peak season with high demand. Nickel iron prices are weak, and stainless steel has profit and demand issues. There are export利好 factors for stainless steel, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs [3]. Positive Factors - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period, changes in mining area management, progress in nickel smelting projects, favorable WTO rulings, and extension of Indian BIS certification exemption [5]. Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak stainless steel demand [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - **Nickel**: The prices of Shanghai Nickel main contract and related contracts, as well as LME nickel 3M, all declined, with trading volume and open interest also decreasing, while the position of warehouse receipts increased slightly [5]. - **Stainless steel**: The prices of stainless steel contracts declined, but trading volume and open interest increased significantly, and the position of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6]. Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 43,694 tons, an increase of 2,866 tons; LME nickel inventory is 242,094 tons, an increase of 4,716 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 905.6 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,236 tons, an increase of 584 tons [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market is at the peak of new - season harvesting and listing, with abundant spot supply and significant price pressure. New - season low - and medium - protein soybean prices are gradually falling and may continue to bottom out as the listing volume increases [4]. - With the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential policies such as state reserves, the policy attribute of soybeans is strengthening, increasing the uncertainty of price trends [4]. - The sharp rise of soybean futures contracts on Thursday is unexpected given the large spot pressure, possibly related to the recent deterioration of trade situation. Further price increases will face hedging pressure, and the main contract is transitioning to 01 [4]. - The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - In October, due to the new - season concentrated harvest and listing, the price pressure is large, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the soybean 11 contract is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.92% and a historical percentile of 22.5% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, when there is a large demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at the price range of 4000 - 4050. Also, selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at the range of 30 - 50 can increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on long - term procurement management by taking long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. Market Quotes - **Price Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the closing price of soybean 11 increased from 3927 to 3975, a daily increase of 48 (1.22%); the closing price of soybean 01 increased from 3904 to 3973, a daily increase of 69 (1.77%); the closing price of soybean 03 increased from 3903 to 3970, a daily increase of 67 (1.72%); the closing price of soybean 05 increased from 3936 to 4000, a daily increase of 64 (1.63%); the closing price of soybean 07 increased from 3942 to 3997, a daily increase of 55 (1.40%); the closing price of soybean 09 increased from 3944 to 4000, a daily increase of 56 (1.42%) [5]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: In October, the domestic soybean market is in the new - season concentrated harvest and listing period, with large price pressure and limited rebound space [4]. - **Other Influencing Factors**: Policy factors such as state reserves and two - way auctions also affect the market, and the uncertainty of price trends increases [4][7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] Group 2: Price and Volatility Forecast Nickel - Price Range Forecast: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - Price Range Forecast: 1,250 - 1,310 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 6.62% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 0.1% [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell NI main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [2] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month NI contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Sell SS main - contract futures according to inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline, sell - side ratio 60%, strategy grade 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options), sell - side ratio 50%, strategy grade 2 [3] Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy far - month SS contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs, buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 - Strategy 2: Sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), sell - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 1 - Strategy 3: Buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), buy - side ratio based on procurement plan, strategy grade 3 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose strongly during the day, and the overall non - ferrous metals market was strong. - In the nickel ore market, Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year, and the 2026 quota is expected to decline. - In the new energy market, the downstream procurement willingness recovered after the holiday, with tight market circulation, low inventory, and continued strong subsequent quotes. - The upward momentum of nickel - iron prices has dissipated, but the downward space is limited due to cost pressure. - In the stainless steel market, spot transactions improved after the holiday, and export prospects are positive, which may relieve the pressure of weak demand recovery. [3] Group 5: Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Indonesia shortened the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promoted the continuous construction of the nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO ruled that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel was illegal. - The exemption of India's BIS certification was extended to the end of the year. [5] Bearish Factors - High pure nickel inventory. - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist. - As of now, the demand recovery during the "Golden September and Silver October" period has fallen short of expectations. [5] Group 6: Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main - continuous | 124,480 | 3,580 | 3% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 124,480 | 3,580 | 2.96% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 124,660 | 3,600 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 124,850 | 3,580 | 2.97% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,382 | - 103 | - 2.95% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 130,864 | 3,674 | 2.89% | lots | | Open Interest | 86,038 | 9,898 | 13.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 24,775 | - 42 | - 0.17% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | - 610 | 135 | - 18.1% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main - continuous | 1,286 | 130 | 1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 1,286 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 1,288 | 130 | 1.02% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 1,295 | 120 | 0.94% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 88,195 | - 39,957 | - 31.18% | lots | | Open Interest | 60,514 | - 7,320 | - 10.79% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 86,551 | - 418 | - 0.48% | tons | | Basis of Main Contract | 840 | 30 | 3.70% | yuan/ton | [6] Group 7: Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 40,828 | - 656 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 236,892 | 4,260 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 | 11.8 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 | - 614.5 | [7]