Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a market pullback on October 28, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a decline of 0.5% during the trading day [1][2]. Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) traded at 0.989, reflecting a decrease of 0.5% [2]. - Key stocks in the sector, including biological shares, poultry farming, and aquaculture feed, saw declines, with several stocks dropping over 2% [1]. Sector Analysis - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's fundamentals are expected to improve gradually, suggesting that the current pullback may present a good investment opportunity [1]. - Oriental Securities is optimistic about the pig farming sector, citing recent policies and market forces that are driving capacity reduction, which will enhance long-term performance [1]. - The feed and animal health sectors are anticipated to benefit from a rebound in pig inventory, which could lead to improved profitability across the supply chain [1]. Valuation Insights - The agricultural sector's valuation remains relatively low, with the market's first agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, which is at the 30.08 percentile of the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [5][6]. Future Outlook - Guosen Securities is optimistic about a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly in beef and raw milk sectors, predicting a potential upturn in 2025 [7]. - The pig farming sector is expected to see a reduction in production capacity, which may positively influence stock prices and sector performance [7]. - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI All Agricultural Index, which encompasses a wide range of industries within the agricultural sector, providing comprehensive exposure to potential recovery opportunities [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is expected to maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. In the short term, there is a harvest pressure from the concentrated listing of new grains, with strong expectations of restorative yield increase and lower costs driving prices down. In the long term, prices are not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks [1][2]. - For other agricultural products: - Oils are likely to continue to oscillate in the short term and may rise again in the medium term due to factors such as the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September, potential reduction in US soybean yields, and increased overseas biodiesel demand [5]. - Protein meals are expected to oscillate and rise. The market is dominated by fundamentals, with US soybeans entering the harvest period and South American sowing progress uncertain [6]. - The hog market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Supply is abundant in the short and medium term, while the long - term outlook may improve if the "anti - involution" policy effectively reduces production capacity [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, supported by data revisions and short - term fundamentals [9][10]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain an interval oscillation pattern, with no significant changes in short - term fundamentals and raw materials [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to adjust downward in the medium term due to the expected large yield increase in Xinjiang cotton in the new season, but may have short - term rebound opportunities [12]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the long term and downward - seeking support in the short term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season [14]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the driving force and valuation unable to provide consistent guidance [15]. - Double - gum paper is expected to oscillate narrowly, and short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. - Logs are expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals but lack of strong upward driving force and pressure from the delivery side [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn - **Current Situation**: Domestic spot prices are differentiated. Northeast deep - processing prices are falling due to increased arrivals, while port prices are strong due to high shipping demand. New grain listing is concentrated in eastern Heilongjiang, and there are issues with grain quality in North China [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: There is a harvest pressure from new grain listing, and the addition of a new Wednesday directional auction session for imported corn with lower reserve prices has increased pessimism. Consider short - selling opportunities and reverse - spread arbitrage [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks, prices are not pessimistic, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [2]. 3.2 Oils - **Current Situation**: Last Friday, US beans and crude oil prices fell. The area affected by drought in US soybeans has expanded, and the excellent - good rate has been continuously lowered. Malaysian palm oil production in September is expected to decline month - on - month, and exports have increased. Domestic soybean imports are expected to seasonally decline, and soybean oil inventories may peak [5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower support. In the medium term, prices may rise again due to multiple factors [5]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **Current Situation**: International soybean trade premiums have increased. US soybeans are entering the harvest period, and South American sowing progress is slow. Domestically, oil mills are operating at a high rate, and downstream is stocking up before the festival. The import volume of soybeans from September to November is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: The market is dominated by fundamentals. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and double - meal prices are expected to oscillate and rise. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910, and add positions at 2980 - 3000 when the market stabilizes [6]. 3.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: The National Development and Reform Commission is continuing to purchase 15,000 tons of hogs for storage. In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is affected by factors such as the increase in the ratio of live pigs to meat and the narrowing of the price difference between fat and lean pigs. The inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are weakly oscillating. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, prices may gradually strengthen in 2026 [8]. 3.5 Rubber - **Current Situation**: Rubber prices first fell and then rose, mainly due to the downward revision of inventory data. Fundamentally, the spot is strong, inventory is being reduced, and the basis is continuously narrowing. Supply may be affected by precipitation at the end of September, and downstream procurement willingness needs to be observed [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, and a short - term long - buying strategy can be considered during the callback in September [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The BR disk fluctuates with natural rubber prices, and there are no major contradictions. The absolute price and operating logic have not changed much recently. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals and raw materials are expected to have no significant changes, and the disk is expected to oscillate within the range [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The current contradiction in the domestic market is between the tight inventory at the end of the old - new year conversion period and the expected yield increase in the new season. The demand has seasonally improved, but the upward driving force is limited. The new cotton harvest is about to start, and the purchase price may first rise and then fall [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13,500 yuan/ton and short - term rebound opportunities. In the medium term, prices are expected to adjust downward due to the expected yield increase [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: Last week, Zhengzhou sugar prices moved down, breaking through the 5,500 yuan/ton platform. The international trade flow is loose, and domestic sugar imports increased in August [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short term, prices are expected to seek support downward [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Pulp futures are oscillating at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price of Russian needles. The US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the changes [15]. - **Outlook**: The driving force and valuation cannot provide consistent guidance, and the futures are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.10 Double - gum Paper - **Current Situation**: After listing, the disk has been oscillating around 4,200 yuan, lacking a substantial driving force. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from publishers' tenders has not started [16]. - **Outlook**: Short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The disk first rose and then fell, and the 09 contract was smoothly delivered. The downstream sales have improved since mid - September, and the delivery logic has a negative impact on the disk [18]. - **Outlook**: The buyer's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the disk is expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term [18].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" process in pig farming, suggesting that the industry is likely to accelerate capacity reduction due to both fundamental and policy-driven factors. This presents an opportunity for value reassessment of quality pig farming companies [3][4]. - The report notes that after over 16 months of profitability, the pig farming industry has entered a phase of losses again, with a significant drop in pig prices. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 12.71 yuan/kg, down 4.2% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of profits in the breeding industry and the continued demand for pet food, with a notable increase in net profits for tracked companies in the agricultural sector, which reached 20.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 208% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index fell by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.4%. The top five gainers included Andeli and Biological Shares, both up by 9.4%, while the biggest losers included *ST Zhongji, down by 18.3% [4][11]. Pig Farming - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is facing accelerated losses, with self-breeding operations losing 24.44 yuan per head. The average price for weaned piglets dropped to 259 yuan per head, a decrease of 32 yuan week-on-week [3][4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing capacity control measures, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by 1 million heads over the next six months [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market continues to experience weak pricing, with the average selling price for broiler chicks at 3.10 yuan per chick, down 4.91% week-on-week. The report suggests focusing on leading companies for long-term value [3][4]. - The yellow feather broiler market is seeing a seasonal rebound, with prices for Qingjiao chicken rising significantly since June, indicating potential profitability improvements in the upcoming quarter [3][4]. Pet Food Industry - The report tracks pet food export data, noting a decline in export value to 834 million yuan in August, down 10.4% month-on-month and 15.5% year-on-year. However, the export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the pig farming industry, emphasizing the importance of the "anti-involution" process and the potential for value reassessment of quality pig enterprises [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent acceleration in pig price declines may lead to increased regulatory measures, urging investors to focus on the value reassessment of leading pig farming companies. The report suggests that the industry is nearing the end of its current production cycle, with a high probability of production capacity stabilizing and declining in the second half of 2025 [4][5]. - The report also notes that the overall performance of the agricultural sector is improving, with the Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rising by 4.8% compared to a 1.4% increase in the CSI 300 Index [4][5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates that the average selling price of external three-yuan pigs was 13.27 yuan/kg as of September 14, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.5%. The average selling price of weaned piglets was 294 yuan/head, down 29 yuan/head, marking a new low for the year [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the expectation of upgraded production capacity regulation, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stable and high-quality development, which could enhance profitability and stability for quality pig enterprises [4][5]. Poultry Farming - For broiler chickens, the report notes a return to weak pricing across the industry, with the average selling price of white feather broiler chicks at 3.26 yuan/chick, down 1.21% week-on-week. The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 1.15% [4][5]. - The report highlights the seasonal rebound in the yellow feather chicken market, with prices rebounding nearly 45% from the lowest point in late June [4][5]. Pet Food - The report provides insights into the pet food market, indicating that online sales in August 2025 reached 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 19%. Cumulatively, sales from January to August 2025 totaled 19.21 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year [4][5]. - Specific companies such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong have shown significant growth in their online sales, with Guai Bao Pet's GMV increasing by 15% year-on-year in August [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The corn market is currently in a weak position as the restocking phase has ended, but the decline after the new grain harvest is expected to be less than last year. Short - term, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; long - term, consider low - buying when the futures price falls below cost [1][2]. - The oil market may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, but is likely to strengthen in the medium term due to factors such as increased demand for palm oil and soybean oil from overseas biodiesel, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil production reduction season [6]. - The protein meal market will continue to fluctuate within a range. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises should buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7]. - The pig market is in a low - level oscillation. Before the National Day, the inventory will be gradually released, and the spot and near - month prices are expected to remain weak. The far - month contract is supported by the expectation of capacity reduction, presenting a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - The natural rubber market has no obvious short - term drivers and will maintain range - bound trading, with a short - term upward bias [12]. - The synthetic rubber market will maintain range - bound trading, and the short - term price is expected to rise slightly and the market may be strong [13]. - The cotton market has support but lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. - The sugar market is in a downward trend. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new season, the price is expected to be weak; in the short term, it will fluctuate within the range of 5550 - 5750 [16]. - The pulp market has unclear core drivers and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - The log market is in a weak oscillation. Technically, it is in a downward trend, but the supply will ease in the future, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oil**: Due to pessimistic demand expectations, US soybeans fell on Tuesday while US soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market continued to fluctuate. Factors such as the US soybean's reduced excellent - rate, the impact of Sino - US trade relations on export demand, and the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil were considered. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, and the inventory increase of Malaysian palm oil in August may be limited. The short - term outlook is for continued oscillation and adjustment, and the medium - term outlook is for a strong trend [6]. - **Protein Meal**: International soybean prices are affected by weather and Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean excellent - rate has decreased, and the 9 - month supply - demand report may lower the yield per unit. The domestic market has limited room for price decline, and the demand is expected to increase steadily. The outlook is for range - bound trading [7]. - **Corn/Starch**: The domestic corn price is generally stable. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The wheat substitution may decrease. The short - term outlook is to wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and the long - term outlook is to consider low - buying [1][9]. - **Pig**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The demand is affected by temperature changes, and the inventory is gradually being released. The market shows a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. There are some positive factors such as the approaching seasonal rise period, but the short - term upward space is limited [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the natural rubber market and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The short - term price is expected to rise slightly [13]. - **Cotton**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. - **Sugar**: The international and domestic sugar supplies are increasing, and the price is under downward pressure. The long - term outlook is for a weak trend, and the short - term outlook is for range - bound trading [16]. - **Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the core driver of the futures is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Log**: The spot price is falling, and the market is in a weak oscillation. The supply pressure will ease in the future, and the market may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [18][19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the monitored varieties including oilseeds, protein meal, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided [21][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards for the expected price trends of varieties, including strong, oscillating - strong, oscillating, oscillating - weak, and weak, with a time period of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [170]. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed slight increases on September 3, 2025 [172]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 3, 2025, the agricultural product index had a daily decline of 0.06%, a 5 - day increase of 0.13%, a 1 - month decline of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.74% [174].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Bullish Oscillation | | Protein Meal | Oscillation | | Corn and Starch | Bearish Oscillation | | Hogs | Oscillation | | Natural Rubber and 20 - rubber | Oscillation | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillation | | Cotton | Bullish Oscillation | | Sugar | Oscillation | | Pulp | Oscillation | | Logs | Bearish Oscillation | [7][8][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple favorable factors drive the oils and fats market to run strongly. Protein meal is affected by emotions and supply pressure. Corn shows signs of restocking downstream. Hog futures are expected to correct. Rubber experiences a pull - back after a rise. Synthetic rubber has limited variables. Pulp is considered bullish in the short - term. Cotton prices are boosted by a reduction in US cotton production. Sugar prices rebound due to supply expectation adjustments. Logs are affected by new warehouse receipt pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Product Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: USDA's August report unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, increased the yield per acre by 1.1 bushels to 53.6 bushels, and cut the expected yield by 1.16 million tons to 116.82 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons [1][7]. - **Logic**: Multiple factors contributed to the rise of domestic oils. From a macro perspective, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the US - China tariff policy is extended. From an industrial perspective, the reduction in US soybean area and production, lower - than - expected palm oil inventory in Malaysia, and anti - dumping rulings on Canadian rapeseed are positive. However, US soybean growth is good, and palm oil is in the production season [2][7]. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is likely to continue to run strongly in the near future [3][7]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 13, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also increased [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is tightening. Domestically, there is short - term inventory pressure, but long - term demand is expected to increase. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is positive for the far - month [8]. - **Outlook**: The market pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weakness and far - term strength will continue. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low prices [8]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: The prices of corn in Jinzhou Port and the domestic average showed small changes. The closing price of the main contract increased [10]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is stable to weak, with supply inventory being digested and demand being weak. There are signs of restocking in South China ports. New - season corn production is normal [10]. - **Outlook**: There is uncertainty in the short - term due to old - crop de - stocking, and there is a downward drive after new - crop listing [10]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 13, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased slightly, and the futures price decreased [11]. - **Logic**: After the end of the symposium, the market hype subsided. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume increases. In the medium - term, the supply will increase. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog futures market fluctuates greatly. The spot and near - term have high - weight inventory pressure, while the far - term has a bullish expectation. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategies [11]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and Thailand's raw material market showed different changes. Cambodia's latex exports decreased in the first 7 months of 2025 [14]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices adjusted after a rise. It is in the seasonal rising period, with many speculation themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and demand is rigid [14]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed increases [16]. - **Logic**: The BR futures followed natural rubber to adjust. It is affected by natural rubber sentiment and raw material cost support. The supply of butadiene is tight, and downstream demand is good [16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the futures may run strongly in an oscillatory manner [16]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the number of registered warehouse receipts and the closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts increased [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA report cut US cotton production, tightening global supply. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. The suspension of tariffs boosts market confidence [17]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly before new - flower listing [17]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of August 13, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts increased [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short - term, supply pressure increases seasonally, but the rebound of the external market supports the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices have a downward drive; in the short - term, they are expected to run in the range of 5600 - 5900 [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong increased [18]. - **Logic**: The pulp fundamentals are weak, with high supply and weak demand overseas. However, the price is at a low level, and the negative factors have been fully priced in [18]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures price weakened due to new warehouse receipt pressure. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. There is a marginal improvement in fundamentals [20]. - **Outlook**: The log futures are expected to run in the range of 800 - 850 [20].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Pig Daily Report - July 23, 2025" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] - Report type: Agricultural product R & D report from the Commodity Research Institute [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The spot price of live pigs continued to decline today, and the supply tension has improved. The subsequent supply pressure still exists, and the upward space of the spot price is limited [4][6] - The futures price of live pigs rose sharply today due to market rumors. However, due to the existing inventory and production pressure, the upward space of the price is relatively limited [6] Group 4: Spot Price Summary - The average spot price of live pigs today was 13.44 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday [4] - Spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend, with Guangdong falling the most, by 0.2 yuan/kg [4] Group 5: Futures Price Summary - Futures prices of most contracts rose, with LH01 rising 350 yuan to 14,640 yuan [4] - Contract spreads changed significantly, such as LH7 - 9 widening by 210 yuan to - 580 yuan [4] Group 6: Other Price Summary - Piglet and sow prices remained unchanged this week at 440 yuan and 1,628 yuan respectively [4] - The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 90.89 yuan/head, down 42.99 yuan from yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets was - 18.66 yuan/head, down 50.26 yuan from yesterday [4] Group 7: Slaughter and Size Spread Summary - The slaughter volume was 133,568 heads, down 37 heads from yesterday [4] - The spread between large and standard pigs widened by 0.03 yuan to 0.1 yuan [4] Group 8: Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Wait and see - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [7]