Market Focus - Indonesia has canceled its plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blend ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current mix of 40% palm oil-based fuel and 60% diesel [1] - Indonesia will raise the export levy on crude palm oil (CPO) from 10% to 12.5% starting March 1, with a similar increase of 2.5 percentage points for refined products [1] - Malaysia has lowered the reference price for crude palm oil for February, resulting in an export tax reduction to 9%, with the reference price set at 3,846.84 ringgit per ton, down from 3,946.17 ringgit in January [1] Soybean Processing Data - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report a soybean crush of 224.809 million bushels for December, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 4.1% and a year-over-year increase of 8.8%, marking the second-highest monthly crush in history [2] - December's soybean oil inventory is projected to reach 1.686 billion pounds, an increase of 11.4% month-over-month and 36.4% year-over-year [2] Palm Oil Export Data - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1-15 amounted to 727,440 tons, an increase of 18.64% compared to 613,172 tons in the same period last month [2] Market Sentiment - The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan represents a significant adjustment in demand-side expectations, establishing a neutral to bearish market tone [4] - Despite strong short-term export performance and policy negotiations among exporting countries, it is challenging to reverse the weakening sentiment caused by long-term changes in consumption growth trends [4]

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining an export tax of $74 per ton and an additional 10% export levy [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain stable oil production through the first quarter of 2026, with oil prices dropping over 18% in 2025 due to concerns of oversupply, marking the largest annual decline since 2020 [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are reported at 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from the previous month, while exports for December 1-25 increased by 1.6% to 1,058,112 tons [1] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are estimated at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from the previous month [1] Inventory and Demand - Reuters reports that Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to nearly a seven-year high, with a 4.7% month-on-month increase to 2.97 million tons, while production is expected to decline by 9% to 1.76 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports fell to an eight-month low in December, estimated at 507,000 tons, a decrease of 20% month-on-month, which may increase inventories in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia [3] Market Sentiment - The expectation of high palm oil inventories is putting downward pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures, leading to a bearish market sentiment [5] - Seasonal declines in production are anticipated in the coming months, which may influence market dynamics [5]

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining the export tax at $74 per ton and imposing an additional 10% export levy on crude palm oil [1] - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield for December 1-25, 2025, decreased by 8.49% month-on-month, with an oil extraction rate down by 0.12% and total production down by 9.12% compared to the same period last month [1] Palm Oil Export Data Update - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 were 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from 1,316,455 tons in the previous month. For December 1-25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, an increase of 1.6% from 1,041,935 tons [2] - AmSpec reported Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from 1,263,298 tons, while for December 1-25, exports were 1,017,897 tons, up 3% from 987,978 tons [2] - SGS projected Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-25 at 824,276 tons, an increase of 41.25% compared to the previous month [2] Daily Soybean Oil Spot Prices - Various regions in China reported soybean oil prices, with prices ranging from 8,170 to 8,610 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan across different locations [4] Market Review - As of December 31, multiple institutions reported a month-on-month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports, putting pressure on palm oil futures. However, the potential for a reduction in export reference prices and taxes at the end of the month may incentivize delaying shipments to the next month for profit [5]

Market Overview - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 2.09% month-on-month decrease in Malaysia's palm oil yield for the period of November 1-30, 2025, while the extraction rate increased by 0.36% and production decreased by 0.19% compared to the previous month [1] - AmSpec indicated that Malaysia's palm oil exports for the same period were 1,263,298 tons, a decrease of 15.89% from 1,501,945 tons in the previous month [2] - SGS reported a more significant decline in palm oil exports, with a total of 779,392 tons for the same period, down 39.21% from 1,282,036 tons in the previous month [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia's statistics office reported that from January to October, the export volume of crude palm oil and refined palm oil reached 19.49 million tons [3] - A Reuters survey estimated that palm oil inventories in November would rise by 7.78% month-on-month to 2.66 million tons, the highest level since April 2019. The crude palm oil production is expected to be 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month, but still the highest recorded for November [3] Price Movements and Market Sentiment - The market is experiencing volatility due to strong rainfall affecting harvesting operations in major production areas, alongside general expectations of inventory accumulation. This has led to a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments in palm oil futures [5] - The upcoming official supply and demand data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Wednesday is anticipated to influence market direction [5] Soybean Oil Market Activity - Indian buyers have secured significant soybean oil purchases for April to July 2026, a rare move aimed at countering rising palm oil prices. Patanjali Foods Ltd. revealed that traders have locked in over 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil per month during this period, taking advantage of a price difference of $20 to $30 per ton compared to palm oil [2]

Market Focus - The Trump administration has lifted restrictions on oil extraction in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban imposed by former President Biden that designated approximately 87 billion barrels of extractable oil as off-limits. This policy change officially took effect on Thursday [1] - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that soybean production for the 2025/26 season will reach 177.6016 million tons, an increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6% year-on-year. The soybean planting area is expected to rise to 49.0634 million hectares, also up 3.6% year-on-year [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1-10 were reported at 448,328 tons, a decrease of 9.5% compared to the same period last month. However, palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time in 2025, driven by favorable weather conditions and improved labor supply [1] - India's palm oil imports for the 2024/25 marketing year are projected to decline by 15.9% to 7.58 million tons, the lowest level since the 2019/20 marketing year. In contrast, soybean oil imports surged by 59% to a record 5.47 million tons [2] - Following seasonal maintenance, most processing plants in the U.S. resumed operations in October, leading to a rapid increase in soybean supply. Analysts predict that U.S. soybean crush in October may reach a record high of 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September [3] Daily Oilseed Market Data - The average price for refined soybean oil in various markets shows slight variations, with prices ranging from 8,440 to 8,850 [4] Market Review - The market sentiment for Canadian canola has improved due to easing trade relations, pushing domestic canola oil contracts above the 10,000-point mark within four trading days. The price spread between canola oil and soybean oil has widened significantly, approaching 1,700 points [5]