Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that since 2021, the pig industry has shifted from capital competition to cost competition, focusing on breeding systems, production management, and technological research and development [1][2][3] - The industry is entering a new stage of high-quality development, with policies promoting breeding systems, feed efficiency, digital transformation, and safe slaughtering practices [3][4] - The focus on stabilizing production, prices, and supply is leading to a reasonable scale of production, with expectations of reduced fluctuations in pig prices and an increase in the price stabilization center [3] Group 2 - Companies with cost advantages are expected to achieve stable excess operating profits, as they focus on quality improvement rather than scale growth [4][5] - The current industry phase is characterized by reduced capital expenditures and improved free cash flow, leading to a recovery in balance sheets and net assets [4][5] - Increased and stable free cash flow is likely to enhance shareholder returns through higher dividend rates [5] Group 3 - Recommended companies for investment include Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份), and Shennong Group (神农集团), which have strong balance sheets and cost advantages [1][5]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report type: Pig Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 13th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and oscillated downward, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,975 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,045 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,156 lots to 180,560 lots [8] - Spot: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.75 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsty is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait-and-see state. The terminal demand is weak due to the hot weather, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,000 heads, an increase of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 3,500 heads from a week ago [9] - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughtering is high, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsty remains high, and there are still secondary fattening pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9] Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of farmers increases, and the current enthusiasm for slaughtering is acceptable. At the same time, the demand is in the off-season, and the supply and demand remain relatively loose. The spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9] - Futures: Currently, the near-month 2509 contract of futures mainly follows the spot and oscillates weakly. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large. The price performance may oscillate strongly. The domestic anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium and long-term performance of pig prices. Pay attention to the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity [9] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - Self-breeding and self-raising profit per head: As of August 7th, the profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising was 119 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 10 yuan/head [14] - Profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening: As of August 7th, the profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -54 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 28 yuan/head [14] - Average sales price of 15kg piglets: In the week of August 7th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - Inventory of reproductive sows: As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.52% and a year-on-year increase of 6.71% [14] - Planned slaughter volume: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July [14] - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 7th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [14]

我国生猪产业正经历着由政策强力驱动的深刻转型期，2025年中央一号文件明确提出"稳产能、降成 本、强科技"的战略导向，同时将环保指标纳入养殖准入门槛，形成了行业发展的基本遵循。2025年7月 23日，农业农村部召开推动生猪产业高质量发展座谈会，明确提出了"降体重、稳产能、限二育"的核心 调控方向，标志着生猪行业"反内卷"政策的全面落地。 针对生猪产能监管，备案管理新政的实施标志着行业监管进入标准化、规范化新阶段。根据农业农村部 最新发布的《畜禽养殖场备案管理办法》，自2025年9月1日起，全国将统一实施畜禽养殖场备案管理新 规，要求凡在独立固定场所饲养列入《国家畜禽遗传资源目录》的畜禽且达到规定规模标准的养殖场均 需依法备案，这一硬性要求实质上抬高了行业准入门槛，加速了落后产能的出清。 当前猪市面临的核心矛盾在于"产能绝对量高企"与"结构性调整滞后"，能繁母猪存栏折射出产能优化的 艰巨性。截至2025年6月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量为4043万头，虽环比仅增长0.1%，但较设定的3900万 头正常保有量仍高出3.7%。但近年来，随着养殖技术改进和品种改良，行业平均PSY已从24头提升至26 头左右，龙头企业甚至达 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) with a key recommendation for the "platform + ecosystem" service-oriented enterprise Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation of the pig industry policy, highlighting the importance of high-quality development and the need for cost control and capacity management [4][5][17] - The report suggests that the industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with expectations for improved profit margins and a focus on technology-driven and service-oriented companies [17] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [17] Summary by Sections 1.1 Pig Industry - Recent pig prices are at 13.72 CNY/kg (down 0.02 CNY/kg MoM), with average slaughter weight slightly decreasing to 127.8 kg (down 0.18 kg MoM) [4][16] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes reducing breeding stock and controlling new capacity, with a focus on improving the entire industry chain's competitiveness [5][16] - The report anticipates further policy measures to stabilize pig prices and control production capacity, recommending Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry as a key player [17] 1.2 Poultry - The report notes a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption" in the white feather chicken industry, with a focus on improving return on equity (ROE) [18] - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the integrated supply chain and those with strong breeding capabilities [18] 1.3 Feed - The report highlights positive price trends in aquatic products, with significant year-on-year increases in various fish species [20] - It recommends Haida Group due to its improved management effectiveness and capacity utilization, expecting it to exceed growth expectations [20] 1.4 Pet Industry - Online sales growth in the pet industry has slightly slowed, with notable performance from brands like Guibao and Zhongchong [21][22] - The report suggests that long-term impacts from tariff uncertainties are limited, with leading companies expected to maintain high growth rates [22] 1.5 Agricultural Products - The report discusses uncertainties in soybean imports and the rising prices of natural rubber, with a focus on macroeconomic conditions affecting the agricultural sector [23] 2. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index rose by 2.52% during the week, with the pet food sector performing the best at +5.41% [24]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 08 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 图1：全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2：样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 每日报告 二、行业要闻 图1：养殖利润 元/头 图2：养殖成本 元/公斤 数据来源：涌益，建信期 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - In August, the supply of pigs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for slaughter is fair. Meanwhile, the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of pigs may continue to be under pressure. In the futures market, the near - term 2509 contract is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, the pig supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with a relatively large increase in demand, and their price performance may be oscillating upwards. Policies and other factors are favorable for the medium - to - long - term pig price performance, and the impact of later policies on production capacity needs attention [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,920 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,023 lots to 176,215 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of三元hogs nationwide was 13.74 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pig pens is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, the terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 7th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,300 heads, an increase of 3,700 heads from the previous day and 2,300 heads from a week ago [8] - **Supply Side**: In August, the slaughter volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the breeding side has a high enthusiasm for slaughter, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pig pens remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 31st, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [9][11] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week of July 31st was 527 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 31st was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [17] - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [17] - As of the week of July 31st, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week and a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% [17]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 07, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 6th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line at the end of the session. The highest was 14,060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,010 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,326 lots to 177,238 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 6th, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 13.89 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Market Analysis - Demand Side: The utilization rate of pigsties is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, slaughterhouse orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses remain low. On August 6th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 135,500 heads, 700 heads less than the previous day and 1,500 heads less than a week ago [9]. - Supply Side: In August, the slaughter volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm for slaughter on the breeding side was relatively high, and the slaughter progress was fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remained high, and there were still secondary fattening pigs to be released, so the slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuated slightly [9]. Market Outlook - Spot: In August, with the increase in slaughter on the breeding side and the current good enthusiasm for slaughter, while demand is in the off - season, the supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9]. - Futures: Currently, the near - month 2509 contract of futures follows the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term and far - month, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak - demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large, so the price performance may fluctuate strongly. The domestic anti - involution initiative, high - quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium - to - long - term pig price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of later policies on production capacity [9]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 31st, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [10][12]. Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of July 31st, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, 15 yuan/head lower than the previous week [18]. - According to the statistics of Yongyi Consulting, the average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses on the week of July 31st was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [18]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads, an increase of 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month increase or decrease rates were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [18]. - As of the week of July 31st, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39% [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply of hogs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for selling is fair. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation remains relatively loose, and hog prices may continue to face pressure. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, hog supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with relatively large demand increases, and their prices may show a volatile upward trend. Policies are also favorable for the medium - to - long - term hog price performance [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2509 hog futures contract opened lower, hit a low, and then rebounded, closing down. The highest price was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,940 yuan/ton, a 0.50% decrease from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 476 lots to 173,049 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the national average price of external ternary hogs was 13.92 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, with most in a wait - and - see mode. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the continuous recovery of enterprise sales, the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses have slightly increased. On August 4, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, a decrease of 300 heads from the previous day but an increase of 500 heads from a week ago [8]. - **Supply Side**: In August, the sales volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the breeding side has a high enthusiasm for selling, and the sales progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsties remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened hogs to be released. There is still pressure on sales, and the average weight of hogs for sale fluctuates slightly [8]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Profit per Head**: As of July 31, the average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per head for purchasing piglets for fattening was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [13]. - **Price of 15kg Piglets**: In the week of July 31, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Volume**: In the week of July 31, the average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [13]. - **National Hog Inventory**: At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national hog inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the quarter - on - quarter changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of July 31, the average weight of hogs for sale nationwide was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week (a 0.39% decrease) [13].

东吴期货： 生猪市场价格小幅波动，多上调为主，前期猪价连日走低，养殖场惜售情绪增强，缩量抗价。也有降雨 影响养殖场出栏的部分原因。二次育肥补栏积极性稍有提高，但是整体量级有限，标肥价差趋于稳定。 目前阶段养殖企业出栏节奏逐渐加快，供应水平较上周不同程度增量。 建信期货： 整体上，7月下旬，集团出栏量增加，养殖企业为完成月度出栏目标，继续加大投放力度，同时需求处 于消费淡季，生猪价格继续承压。期货方面，目前期货近月合约跟随现货下跌，中长期远月来看，生猪 供应保持小幅度增加，但国内出台反内卷倡议、生猪产业高质量发展叠加地区环保力度等不断加强利好 中长期猪价表现，需要关注后期政策对产能的影响。 数据显示，截至8月1日当周，自繁自养生猪养殖利润为盈利43.85元/头，前一周为盈利62.16元/头，外 购仔猪养殖利润为亏损116.78元/头，前一周为亏损71.39元/头。 昨日国内猪价主流上涨，河南均价涨0.23元至14.21元/公斤，四川均价涨0.14元至13.38元/公斤。 机构观点 消息面 据国家发改委数据，截至7月23日，全国生猪出场价格为14.78元/公斤，较7月16日下跌1.20%；猪粮比 价为6.16，较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of live pigs increases and demand is weak, putting pressure on pig prices. In the long - term, policies such as the anti - involution initiative and high - quality development of the pig industry are expected to benefit pig prices, and the impact of policies on production capacity needs to be monitored [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures market**: On July 31, the main 2509 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards, closing down 0.32% at 14,075 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,308 lots to 175,934 lots [8] - **Spot market**: On July 31, the average price of ternary pigs in China was 14.09 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand side**: The utilization rate of pigsties is high. Secondary fattening enthusiasm is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. With the increase in enterprise sales at the end of the month, the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses increased slightly. On July 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 137,000 heads, down 500 from the previous day and up 2,400 from a week ago [9] - **Supply side**: In July, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises was 23.88 million heads, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease from June. At the end of the month, the sales progress of farmers accelerated, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreased slightly. The utilization rate of pigsties for secondary fattening is high, and there are still pigs for secondary fattening to be sold in the future [9] 3.2 Industry News - As of July 24, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 162 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was - 63 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/head [10][12] 3.3 Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of July 24 was 542 yuan/head, unchanged from the previous week [20] - At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 2.2% year - on - year increase and a 1.72% quarter - on - quarter increase of 7.16 million heads [20] - As of the week of July 24, the average weight of live pigs for sale was 128.48 kg, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease and a 2.46% year - on - year increase [20]