韦思宇 长江证券煤炭分析师: 各位投资者领导，大家下午好，欢迎收听长江煤炭的马年开门红的线上策略会，是中煤能 源的一个专场交流。我是长江证券煤炭行业的分析师韦思宇，新的一年，也是祝大家马年 大吉，马上来财。那么下面我们进入到正式的会议环节，今天非常荣幸的邀请到了中煤能 源的郭总和闫琪总，也是大家这个老朋友了，出席本次的这个会议。那么会议将分为两个 环节，首先是这个郭总跟闫琪姐这边，去简单介绍一下公司的一些近况，然后我们再进入 到这个互动问答的环节。 那么下面，我们就把时间交给郭总，欢迎李总。咱们可以开始了。 中煤能源证券事务部郭威: 好的，感谢这个长江证券的组织，在这个第一个工作日的下午，就及时的召开了这么一个 会议。我是中煤能源证券事务部郭威。因为鉴于这个时间关系吧，我就先简单的说一说近 况，还是以后续大家的这个问答。Give it always 进入这个 26 年，公司的生产经营还是 比较正常，走过了这两个多月的时间，不过大家也看到，在我们年前，春节之前发布的 1 月份的生产经营数据的公告中，资产煤的产量。同环比都是有一定程度的下行。过程中， 因为间隔了这个春节的假期，其实有不少朋友们也关注到、关心到我们 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for China Coal Energy Industry Overview - **Coal Market Trends**: In December 2024, the thermal coal market experienced price declines due to weak demand and high port inventories. The price is expected to fluctuate between 680-730 RMB/ton in January 2025, with a long-term contract price of 684 RMB/ton [2][5]. - **Coking Coal Market**: The coking coal market showed a rebound influenced by macro policies and futures markets, with prices for low-sulfur and high-sulfur coking coal at 1,567 RMB/ton and 1,219 RMB/ton respectively [2][5]. - **Urea Market**: The urea market remained stable in December 2024, but is expected to fluctuate between 1,650-1,750 RMB/ton in January 2025 due to increased supply and decreased demand [2][6]. - **Polyolefins Market**: The polyolefins market continued to decline, with expected prices for ethylene and propylene at 6,100-6,400 RMB/ton and 5,900-6,200 RMB/ton respectively [2][6]. - **Methanol Market**: The methanol market is expected to remain weak, with prices projected between 1,700-1,800 RMB/ton [2][7]. Company Performance - **Production and Sales Data**: In 2025, China Coal Energy's coal production was 135 million tons, a decrease of 2.47 million tons year-on-year. Sales were 256 million tons, down by 20.03 million tons. Urea production increased by 26.3 million tons to 2.134 million tons, while methanol production rose by 22.5 million tons to 1.955 million tons [4][3]. - **Cost Management**: The company expects costs in Q4 2025 to remain stable compared to Q3, with overall management, R&D, financial, and sales expenses showing a downward trend [3][19]. - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a minimum dividend payout ratio of 30%, with hopes to sustain or increase this level compared to the previous year [3][16]. Future Outlook - **Coal Production Forecast**: Coal production is expected to remain stable at high levels, with a projected output of 4.7-4.8 billion tons in 2026. This stability is attributed to reduced demand and the gradual replacement of thermal power by renewable energy [10][21]. - **Long-term Contract Compliance**: The company will adhere to long-term coal contracts with a signing ratio of 75% and an execution rate of at least 90% [12][21]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for thermal coal is expected to stabilize, while coking coal prices are anticipated to remain stable due to steady demand from the manufacturing sector and construction industry [21][22]. Additional Insights - **Impact of Policies**: The government’s removal of unapproved capacity is expected to tighten supply, providing some price support in the coal market [10][11]. - **Production Strategy**: The company emphasizes quality over quantity in production, with a focus on maintaining operational efficiency and safety [15][22]. - **Asset Impairment**: No significant asset impairments are expected in 2025, as previous provisions have stabilized the company's asset situation [20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the coal industry and the company's performance and outlook.

Summary of Conference Call on 2026 Electric Coal Long-term Contracts Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the electric coal industry, specifically the long-term contract policies for electric coal in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions of China [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Mechanism Adjustments**: The 2026 electric coal long-term contract price mechanism allows enterprises to negotiate monthly prices based on market indices, with a price range set between 320 to 520 RMB/ton for the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions [2][3]. 2. **Demand Forecast**: It is anticipated that electric coal demand will decline slightly in 2026 due to the impact of renewable energy, leading to reduced operating hours for thermal power generation [1][6]. 3. **Supply Chain Stability**: Coal mines benefiting from supply guarantee policies must fully sign contracts for increased production capacity. Mines that fail to complete the necessary procedures by the end of 2025 will revert to original capacity, affecting contract fulfillment and supply chain stability [1][5]. 4. **Third-party Participation Restrictions**: Shaanxi province does not support third-party companies in electric coal transactions, requiring all contracts to be signed directly between mines to enhance compliance and transaction transparency [1][7]. 5. **Production Capacity Management**: The Shaanxi government plans to manage small and medium-sized coal mines through mergers and upgrades, targeting a production capacity increase to 8 billion tons by 2025 and 8.5 billion tons by 2030 [3][11]. 6. **Impact of Environmental Regulations**: Safety and environmental inspections may hinder the completion of production targets, with Shaanxi likely unable to meet its 8 billion tons target this year [6][12]. 7. **Market Price Trends**: The overall market price for coal is expected to remain stable with limited upward momentum, potentially leading to a downward trend in the coming months [6][20]. 8. **State Control on Overproduction**: The government is strictly controlling overproduction to stabilize market prices, especially in light of recent price declines [12][20]. 9. **Differential Impact on Enterprises**: State-owned enterprises have shown more compliance in completing capacity increase procedures compared to private enterprises, which face challenges in the current market environment [13][16]. 10. **Future Production Outlook**: The Shaanxi government aims for a steady increase in coal production, with a projected annual growth rate of around 2% [11][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Coal Price Adjustments**: There are discussions about adjusting the price range for coal in the three provinces to reflect rising production costs, with suggestions to raise the lower limit by 50 RMB [20][21]. - **Long-term Contract Benefits**: State-owned enterprises are expected to benefit more from long-term contracts compared to private enterprises, especially if coal prices fall below contract prices [16][20]. - **Transition to Renewable Energy**: The dual carbon policy and the shift towards renewable energy sources are expected to gradually reduce coal consumption, although thermal power generation will still play a crucial role [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the electric coal industry and its future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 coal supply long-term contract plan released by the National Development and Reform Commission provides comprehensive guidance on contract signing, including targets, methods, quantities, pricing mechanisms, and regulatory measures for compliance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing and Compliance - The 2026 plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 long-term contract plan, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism since 2017. The compliance requirements for long-term contracts have been slightly relaxed from 2022 to 2026, but the foundation for compliance remains intact [3]. - For electric companies, the principle is that the signed contracts should not be less than 80% of the signing demand, with 80% of these contracts being subject to key regulatory oversight. The wording has been modified from "should not be less than" to "principally should not be less than" [3]. - For coal companies, the requirement remains that the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [3]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for coal from production areas will include a new monthly adjustment mechanism, while the benchmark price for port contracts remains unchanged. The production area pricing will be based on a "benchmark price + floating price" model, with the benchmark price being the median of reasonable price ranges from key coal-producing regions [4]. - The adjustment in the pricing mechanism for production area contracts allows for closer alignment with market changes, while the port pricing mechanism remains stable despite previous long-term contract price discrepancies [4]. Compliance Supervision - The compliance requirements have been relaxed, emphasizing seasonal adjustments. The monthly compliance rate should not be less than 80%, with quarterly and annual compliance rates ideally not less than 90%. There is a new emphasis on increasing compliance during peak demand periods [4]. Investment Recommendations - With the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited. Following the recovery of coal prices, compliance with long-term contracts is expected to improve significantly. If prices remain high, there is considerable potential for performance recovery in coal companies. Key companies to watch include Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [4].

Group 1: Coal Industry Insights - The 2026 coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with the port benchmark price remaining unchanged at 675 RMB/ton, slightly exceeding expectations [5][6] - The contract signing quantity remains consistent, with a flexible expression for compliance; coal enterprises are required to fulfill at least 75% of their own resource quantity [5] - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, making it more responsive to market changes [5] Group 2: Company Analysis - Zhejiang Natural - Zhejiang Natural reported a revenue of 818 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.48%, but Q3 revenue declined by 30.38% [7] - The company’s gross profit margin decreased by 1.30 percentage points to 34.00% for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 gross profit margin at 28.23% [7] - Despite challenges, the company expects a recovery in Q4 2025, driven by the release of capacity from overseas subsidiaries and strong customer relationships [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - Zhongheng Electric - Zhongheng Electric launched two 800VDC solutions aimed at enhancing efficiency in new and existing data centers, potentially increasing system efficiency to 98.5% [9][13] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.42 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, although net profit decreased by 15.6% [13] - Future growth is anticipated as the company expands its high-voltage direct current (HVDC) solutions in both domestic and international markets [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry [1][13]. Core Viewpoints - The 2026 medium- and long-term coal supply contract plan aligns with expectations, with a slight relaxation in performance requirements. The plan continues the mechanism established in the 2022 contracts, which was a significant adjustment from the previous five-year mechanism [1][2]. - The pricing mechanism for coal contracts has been adjusted to include a monthly price adjustment mechanism for production area contracts, while the port benchmark price remains unchanged at 675 RMB/ton [3][10]. - The report suggests that with the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, the expected increase in domestic coal supply is limited, leading to a recovery in coal prices and improved performance in long-term contracts [3][6]. Summary by Sections Contract Signing Requirements - For power companies, the signing demand should not be less than 80% of the required amount, with 80% of these contracts under key regulatory oversight. For coal companies, the task volume should not be less than 75% of their own resource volume [2][10]. Pricing Mechanism - The production area contracts will now have a monthly price adjustment mechanism, with the benchmark price set based on the reasonable price range for coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The floating price will be determined by various indices [3][10]. Performance Supervision - The contract performance requirements have been relaxed, with monthly performance rates required to be no less than 80%, and quarterly and annual rates should generally not be less than 90%. There is an emphasis on increasing performance during peak seasons [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies with significant recovery potential, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, 山煤国际, 兖矿能源, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中国神华 [6].

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the rainy season, iron ore demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and as overseas mines enter the end - of - quarter rush stage, supply may gradually become more abundant. The upward pressure on iron ore prices remains significant. It is recommended to try to short the 2509 contract on rallies and also consider the accumulated put option strategy [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On June 6, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opened higher with a small increase and then pulled back, and oscillated in the afternoon. It closed at 707.5 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [7] - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open - interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on June 6, including RB2510, HC2510, SS2507, and I2509. For example, I2509 had a closing price of 707.5 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 402,647 lots, an open - interest of 724,169 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.31 billion yuan [5] - The table also presents the open - interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on June 6. For I2509, the top 20 long positions had 454,030 lots with an increase of 2,721 lots, and the top 20 short positions had 475,522 lots with an increase of 6,126 lots, with a long - short deviation of - 0.73% [8] 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On June 6, the main iron ore overseas quotes rose 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [9] - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a golden cross, and the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract has been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.3 Outlook - Supply: The current iron ore arrivals have declined, with the arrivals in the four weeks of May at 9.2269 billion tons, a decrease of 325.4 million tons or 3.42% compared with the four weeks of April. However, considering the continuous increase in recent shipments, the cumulative shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil in the four weeks of May were 10.3982 billion tons, an increase of 526.3 million tons or 5.33% compared with the four weeks of April. With the approaching of the end - of - quarter rush stage for overseas mines, the iron ore supply in June is expected to be more abundant [10] - Demand: The peak of iron ore demand has emerged. The daily average pig - iron output has declined for 3 consecutive weeks. As of the week of May 30, the daily average pig - iron output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 37,300 tons from the peak of 2.4564 million tons in the week of May 9. With the arrival of the rainy season, the downstream demand for construction steel is also under pressure. Considering the recent decline in the overall production profit of steel enterprises, the iron ore demand in June is expected to decline compared with May [11] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to decline to 1.39 billion tons, mainly affected by the decline in arrivals in May. As supply gradually becomes more abundant, port inventory is expected to increase slightly in June. The available days of steel mill inventory have dropped to 19 days, and steel enterprises still mainly replenish inventory on demand [11] 3.2 Industry News - "World Steel Association Statistical Data 2025" shows that China's crude - steel output in 2024 was 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.3% of the global total, with electric - arc furnace steel accounting for 10.2%. Domestic iron ore output (adjusted to the world average grade) was 298 million tons, accounting for 11.8% of the world's total iron ore output [12] - China National Coal Group Corporation pointed out in a recent institutional survey that the current coal market has strong supply and weak demand, with low prices and high inventory. Considering the expected decrease in imports this year and the possible weakening of the substitution effect of hydropower on thermal power, the demand for thermal coal is expected to increase with the arrival of the "peak - summer" season. Currently, the thermal - coal price is approaching the bottom and is expected to stabilize further. For coking coal, the decline in price this year has slowed down compared with the same period last year, with little price change in the first and second quarters. The current coking - coal price of the company is around 1,100 yuan/ton, and the profit has decreased year - on - year. The decline in national raw - coal output in April was mainly due to production restrictions in some coal mines due to continuous price drops and safety and environmental factors in some regions [12] - On June 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation for a term of 3 months (91 days) to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore and PB powder, low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, the trading volume at major ports, the available days of steel mill iron ore inventory, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, port iron ore inventory and port clearance volume, the tax - free pig - iron cost of sample steel mills, blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig - iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel - mill inventory of five major steel products [18][19][20]