摩根大通2月23日发布最新研判，预估2026年全球铜市场将面临约13万吨的供应缺口。与此同时，该行 对铜价给出了阶段性预测：2026年第二季度铜价为每吨13，500美元，第三季度为每吨13，000美元。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 供给收紧与需求韧性的叠加，使得铜市场的供需天平进一步向缺口方向倾斜。摩根大通此次对2026年铜 市13万吨供应缺口的预估，反映出该行对全球铜矿新增产能释放节奏偏慢、而下游消费增长稳健这一格 局的基本判断。 值得注意的是，全球贸易政策的变化也在为铜市增添变量。摩根大通研究所近期发布的报告显示，美国 中型企业自2025年初以来月度关税支出已增至原来的三倍，关税成本对产业链的传导效应不容忽视，这 在一定程度上可能影响铜的跨区域流通与定价格局。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 铜矿供应端的收缩压力是这一判断的重要背景。此前，南方铜业等主要铜矿企业已相继下调2026年及 2027年的产量预期，全球铜精矿供给增量面临不确定性。中邮证券在2月初发布的有色金属行业研报中 也指出，"由于自由港、泰克资源以及南方铜业等企业26年产量预期 ...

"我的愿景是，通过与中国的合作伙伴携手，为全球数千万乃至数亿人提供清洁电力，并且是更便宜的 电力。我们要让能源更可及、更廉价，并引领电气化进程。"章鱼能源（Octopus Energy）创始人、首席 执行官格雷格·杰克逊(Greg Jackson)在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时说道。 杰克逊表示，中国在可再生能源技术方面的创新令人瞩目，而英国在电力市场灵活性与数字化服务方面 拥有经验，双方优势互补，有望共同推动全球能源转型与电气化进程。 章鱼能源是全球领先的能源科技独角兽企业。这家2015年成立于英国的公司，现已发展为英国最大的电 力供应商之一，也在欧洲市场占据领先地位，业务遍布全球18个国家。其核心是自主研发的Kraken人工 智能平台，用于优化能源管理和电力交易。近期，它已与中国企业成立合资公司，正式进入中国市场。 在英国首相斯塔默访华期间，章鱼能源与碧澄能源正式宣布战略合资，计划在华设立聚焦电力交易业务 的合资公司——碧桐能源。这一合作代表世界顶级能源科技企业正式进入中国市场，成为中国电力市场 化改革进程中的标志性事件之一。 这是八年来英国首相首次访华。八年间，中国发生了巨大变化，世界亦然。我期待通过 ...

（签约现场，英中贸易协会供图） 南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 杰克逊：作为一名企业家，我始终聚焦于客户需求。我们思考的是：如何借助能源技术，更好地服务我们在全球各国的客户？ 我曾多次到访中国，目睹了中国在太阳能电池板、电池、风力涡轮机、电动汽车等领域的惊人创新。这些技术正帮助客户获得 更廉价、更清洁、更可靠的能源。因此，能随首相一同访华，与他探讨这些机遇，并让他亲眼看到中国技术进步带来的变革， 我感到十分荣幸。 "我的愿景是，通过与中国的合作伙伴携手，为全球数千万乃至数亿人提供清洁电力，并且是更便宜的电力。我们要让能源更可 及、更廉价，并引领电气化进程。"章鱼能源（Octopus Energy）创始人、首席执行官格雷格·杰克逊(Greg Jackson)在接受21世纪 经济报道记者采访时说道。 杰克逊表示，中国在可再生能源技术方面的创新令人瞩目，而英国在电力市场灵活性与数字化服务方面拥有经验，双方优势互 补，有望共同推动全球能源转型与电气化进程。 章鱼能源是全球领先的能源科技独角兽企业。这家2015年成立于英国的公司，现已发展为英国最大的电力供应商之一，也在欧 洲市场占据领先地位，业务遍布全球 ...

来源：滚动播报 受投资者大规模从外汇及主权债券市场转向金属市场的推动，铜价攀升至每吨 13,000 美元关口附近， 其他金属价格亦同步上涨。伦敦金属交易所数据显示，铜价涨幅最高达 1.8%，镍、锡涨幅更是超 3%。 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普对地缘政治格局的重塑以及对美联储的再度抨击，正促使市场涌入避险资产。 通常情况下，这类避险行为主要利好黄金、白银，但近期其影响已蔓延至基本金属领域。这进一步为铜 价上涨添砖加瓦。自去年年中以来，受大型铜矿供应中断、电气化进程催生的需求激增，以及美国可能 加征关税前铜出口量飙升等因素影响，铜价便一路高歌猛进。 ...

智利《信使报》（电子版）1月2日报道，作为智利的主要出口产品，铜在2025年达到 史上最高年平均价格，最后一个交易日以每磅5.672美元收盘。Plusmining矿业咨询公司 表示，鉴于当前电气化进程、电网建设及能源转型等持续推进，2026年铜的结构性需 求仍然强劲，预计铜价将在每磅5至6美元区间波动，高于此前预测的每磅4.5至5美元。 GEM矿业咨询公司也预测铜价将在每磅5至6美元之间，主要原因是库存水平较低以及 美国的不确定性。智利发展大学企业与社会研究中心表示，据国际组织预计，受全球 供应结构性缺口的影响，2026年平均铜价将为每磅5.15美元。专家表示，每年铜价每上 涨1美分，智利政府通过智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）的税收将额外获得2000万至2500 万美元的收入，还将助于增强智利比索的汇率，从而降低燃料、食品和技术服务等价 格。铜价高企在支撑矿业投资和延长现有矿山寿命的同时，也凸显了智利面临的核心 挑战，即提高执行项目的能力、优化审批流程以及提高生产效率。 （原标题：行业预测2026年铜价仍将处于高位） ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite signs of bubble formation in some areas of the energy market, Wall Street believes that the grid technology sector will not fall into a bubble situation, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The grid technology sector has seen an overall increase of approximately 30% this year, yet remains an appealing investment target [1][6]. - Any current pullback in stock prices is viewed as a buying opportunity [2][7]. - Companies like Virtue Technology, which provides microgrid and energy storage solutions for data centers, have experienced a stock price increase of about 60% this year, supported by strong growth momentum [2][7]. - Other grid technology stocks have also recorded significant gains, with South Korean transformer manufacturers showing increases of 400% and 230% respectively [2][7]. - The Nasdaq OMX Clean Energy Smart Grid Infrastructure Index has risen about 30% this year, outperforming other major indices [3][8]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The overall demand for energy is continuously growing, driven by factors beyond artificial intelligence, such as the electrification process and increasing electricity demand in Asian economies [2][7]. - A report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance indicates that global spending on grid-related projects will grow by 16% this year, reaching $479 billion, and is expected to rise to $577 billion by 2027 [3][8]. - The International Energy Agency projects that energy demand from data centers may more than double by the end of this decade [3][8]. Group 3: Structural Changes and Challenges - The market is undergoing a "long structural transformation," with climate change and the need to upgrade aging grids becoming increasingly urgent [2][7]. - Many grid upgrade projects will require collaboration with utility companies, which may delay or hinder investments due to regulatory challenges [4][9]. - The Nasdaq grid index has maintained a net long position among hedge funds, with 66% of its constituents having more long positions than short positions as of the end of September [4][9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The grid sector is expected to remain a structural winner through 2026, although the recent stock price increases have already priced in many positive factors [9]. - Investment opportunities in grid infrastructure are seen as part of a long-term investment cycle that could last for decades, driven by multiple favorable factors [10][11].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals have shown significant price increases, with gold up over 50% and silver up over 70% year-to-date, leading the commodity market [2][4] - The average price of gold jewelry in Shanghai reached 1320 yuan per gram on December 8, a 65% increase from 799 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year [2] - Analysts expect continued demand for precious metals driven by central bank purchases and investment diversification, with gold prices potentially reaching $5000 per ounce by 2026 [4][5] Group 2: Silver Market - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with analysts predicting a price range of $50 to $60 per ounce by 2026 due to limited supply and high demand [6][10] - The gold-silver ratio has increased to a range of 85-90, indicating a strong performance for silver relative to gold [6] - Analysts suggest that silver will benefit from both industrial and financial demand, with expectations of continued price volatility [5][6] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,771 per ton, a year-to-date increase of over 30% [7][8] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to structural supply shortages and increased demand driven by the anticipated AI era [7] - Forecasts indicate that copper prices may average $11,750 per ton in 2026, with potential peaks of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter [8][9] Group 4: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to face supply constraints, with forecasts indicating a supply deficit in 2026, supporting higher prices [10] - Analysts predict that LME aluminum prices could exceed $3200 per ton in 2026 due to limited domestic supply growth and resilient global demand [10] - The price dynamics between copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a ratio of 3-4, with aluminum prices projected to fluctuate throughout 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the electricity, utilities, and renewable energy sectors over the next 12 months, with an average stock return exceeding 100% in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - China's electricity demand is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-9% from 2028 to 2030, surpassing market expectations by 4-5 percentage points, driven by AI data centers, manufacturing electricity demand from exports, and the electrification process [1][3]. - The global shortage of power equipment presents opportunities for Chinese companies to act as major international brand suppliers and to increase their market share [3][8]. - Investment in power supply equipment for AI data centers accounts for approximately 15% of total capital expenditure, creating new market opportunities for related companies [4][5]. Summary by Sections Electricity Demand Growth - China's electricity demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8%-9% from 2028 to 2030, with additional growth driven by AI data centers, manufacturing electricity demand from exports, and the electrification process [3][4]. - The construction scale of data centers in China is projected to be 5-6 GW from 2025 to 2027, significantly lower than the 40-45 GW expected in the U.S. during the same period, indicating substantial growth potential for China [4][5]. Power Equipment Exports - Chinese companies are positioned to benefit from global power equipment shortages, with opportunities to serve as suppliers for major global brands and to enhance their international market share [3][8]. - The penetration rates for transformers and switches in the global market are currently low at 7%-8%, and even lower for gas turbine blades at 1%-2%, suggesting significant room for growth [8][9]. AI Data Centers - The demand for high-power equipment in AI data centers is increasing, with capital expenditure in this area expected to create new market space for related enterprises [4][5]. - The anticipated growth in electricity demand from manufacturing, particularly due to exports, is expected to contribute an additional 1.5 percentage points annually to manufacturing electricity consumption [4][6]. Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicates that electricity demand growth will drive related capital expenditures to increase by 12%, higher than the 11% growth during the previous plan, reflecting stronger government support for the sector [5]. - Recent policy changes encouraging the use of domestic chips for data center construction and providing additional subsidies may accelerate the resolution of supply chain issues, further promoting industry growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international copper prices, with LME copper futures nearing $11,000 per ton, is driven by supply concerns and increasing demand, despite a recent decline of over 2% to $10,578 per ton [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Concerns - Global copper production issues have emerged, particularly at major mines such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has suspended operations due to a landslide, and the Escondida mine in Chile facing operational disruptions [5][7]. - The International Copper Study Group has revised its global mine production growth forecast for this year down from 2.3% to 1.4% due to these supply constraints [7]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - There is a structural increase in demand for copper driven by the AI boom, rising defense spending, and the acceleration of global electrification [9][11]. - BHP's CEO noted that the development of AI is creating new growth opportunities for the copper industry, particularly due to the rapid construction of data centers [11]. Group 3: Future Projections - BHP anticipates that global copper demand could increase by up to 70% by 2050, while the exploration and development of new copper mines are becoming increasingly challenging [13]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will enter a new trading range starting next year, with $10,000 per ton as the new lower limit and $11,000 as the upper limit, driven by limited supply, structural demand growth, and strategic reserves [17]. Group 4: Economic Influences - The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve also impacts copper prices, as a weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of copper as an investment [15][17].