本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究 作者：姜娅 蒋祎 江旭东 张晟 当前啤酒行业正经历由价到质的转变，酒企面临消费者需求碎片化、渠道变革等新挑战，在精酿和门店 式鲜啤等啤酒新品类的冲击下龙头酒企份额有可能被持续侵蚀，中信证券认为率先对行业趋势进行正确 判断并做出及时应对的酒企有望巩固市场地位。此外，在明年成本大概率增加的背景下提价幅度和时点 的考虑也将影响到明年酒企的业绩表现，综合考虑上述因素以及消费弱复苏，判断2026年啤酒行业收入 和利润将持平微降，看好份额提升快、渠道管理强、产品势能好的企业。 ▍风险因素： 宏观消费需求不及预期；酒类生产成本上行压力加剧；竞争加剧；食品安全问题；宴请相关政策进一步 收紧。 ▍投资策略： 受到内需消费恢复缓慢、政商务相关宴请政策收紧的影响，2025年以来白酒板块股价表现疲软严重跑输 指数，年初至今（2025/10/31）中信白酒指数-4.6%，分别跑输沪深300/万得全A指数 22.5pcts /30.9pcts。 虽然短期内白酒行业基本面仍继续承压，但考虑到大部分上市酒企已开始逐步出清，中信证券判断2025 年下半年是本轮白酒行业的基本面底部，是动销最弱、批价最低、市场预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector has underperformed significantly since 2025, with a weak market outlook expected to stabilize in the second half of 2026, presenting potential bottom-fishing opportunities for investors [1][3]. Summary by Category Liquor Industry Performance - Since 2025, the liquor sector's stock prices have been weak, severely lagging behind market indices, with a notable decline in sales and profit margins due to sluggish domestic demand and tightened regulations [2]. - From the beginning of 2025 to October 31, 2025, the CITIC liquor index decreased by 4.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 22.5 percentage points and the Wind All A index by 30.9 percentage points [2]. - In Q3 2025, listed liquor companies reported total revenues of 78.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, and a net profit of 28.1 billion yuan, down 22.1% year-on-year [2]. Future Outlook for Liquor - CITIC Securities predicts that the second half of 2025 will mark the bottom of the liquor industry's fundamentals, with expectations for stabilization in sales, prices, and market sentiment in 2026 [3]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the liquor sector is approximately 20x, indicating a long-term bottoming out, reflecting significant pessimism in market expectations [3]. - Major liquor companies have been increasing shareholder returns, with dividend rates generally above 65%, enhancing investment safety margins [3]. Beer Industry Insights - The beer industry is expected to see flat to slightly declining revenues and profits in 2026 due to challenges such as fragmented consumer demand and channel transformations [4]. - The shift from price to quality in the beer sector may lead to market share erosion for leading companies unless they adapt effectively to industry trends [4]. - Cost increases in the coming year will impact pricing strategies, which will be crucial for the performance of beer companies [4].

Group 1 - The three major indices opened higher, with the China Securities Food and Beverage Index down 0.10% as of the report, featuring stocks like Jinzi Ham reaching the daily limit up, while Jingliang Holdings fell over 4% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a decline of 0.28% with a premium rate of 0.13%, and it experienced a significant net subscription of 6 million units in real-time [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF has attracted substantial capital, accumulating over 77 million yuan in net inflow over the last week, and has seen net inflows on 9 out of the last 10 trading days, reaching a record high of 7.836 billion units as of October 24 [1] Group 2 - On October 25, Moutai Group announced a significant personnel change, with Zhang Deqin stepping down as chairman and Chen Hua, the director of the Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau, taking over [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the basic fundamentals of the industry may bottom out by the third quarter of 2025, with the second half of this year expected to be the most challenging period for the financial performance of listed liquor companies [2] - The outlook for the liquor industry remains positive, with expectations of a gradual recovery trend following the current pressures on sales, prices, and market confidence [2]

Group 1 - The performance of the 2025 Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair met expectations, with the industry actively embracing the consumer side and expanding market demand [1][2] - The fair attracted over 4,000 exhibitors, a significant decrease from over 6,500 at the Spring Fair in 2023, indicating a weaker招商 function and a shift towards market education opportunities [2] - Notable trends at the fair included an increase in customized liquor varieties and a higher number of raw liquor suppliers, reflecting the industry's bottom adjustment cycle [2] Group 2 - The outlook for Q3 2025 suggests that liquor companies should focus on balancing inventory and revenue growth, with a slowdown in growth rates expected [3] - High-end liquor brands are likely to respect market conditions, while mid-tier brands may experience a slight decline due to insufficient consumer demand [3] - Overall, the industry is expected to continue a de-inventory trend in Q3, with distributors and end-users showing low enthusiasm for stocking up [3]

Group 1 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) experienced a volatile trading session on September 30, closing down 0.42% with a premium rate of 0.04, and recorded a trading volume exceeding 140 million yuan, with a net subscription of 54 million units during the session [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days, accumulating nearly 180 million yuan, with a latest circulating share count of 7.634 billion units and a circulating scale of 5.5 billion yuan as of September 29 [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which selects stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries based on the CSI All Share Index [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, the bottom of the industry fundamentals is expected to appear in the third quarter of 2025, with the third quarter of this year anticipated to be the most challenging period for industry sales, prices, and market confidence [2] - The second half of this year is projected to be the most challenging period for the financial performance of listed companies in the liquor industry, but a gradual recovery trend is expected thereafter, indicating potential bottom-fishing opportunities in the liquor sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor companies in China experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in demand related to banquets, leading to a challenging market environment for the industry [1][7]. Revenue Summary - In the first half of 2025, A-share liquor companies achieved revenue of 241.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. Excluding Moutai and the top five brands, the decline was 6.0% and 10.7%, respectively [2]. - The second quarter saw a more pronounced decline, with revenue down 4.9% year-on-year, and a drop of 13.0% and 18.2% when excluding Moutai and the top five brands [2]. - High-end liquor showed some resilience with revenue growth of 6% and 3% in H1 and Q2, respectively, while well-known brands in base markets faced declines of 11% and 21% [2]. - The overall revenue growth for liquor companies is expected to remain under pressure in the second half of the year due to slow recovery in consumer scenarios and low sales velocity [2][4]. Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was 94.6 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 39.2% [3]. - In Q2, net profit fell by 7.5%, with declines of 21.5% and 27.7% when excluding Moutai and the top five brands [3]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to a shift in product structure and rising expense ratios, which have pressured the industry's profit margins [3][4]. Market Outlook - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to be the most challenging period for many liquor companies, with expectations of continued declines in performance metrics [4]. - Despite the current challenges, there is a belief that the liquor sector is at a low valuation point, with potential for a rebound as demand gradually recovers [5][7]. - The liquor sector has significantly underperformed compared to major indices, indicating a potential for catch-up growth [5][7].