1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the strategy differentiation of major financial institutions will reshape the bond market landscape. The trading attributes of banks will be enhanced, and the pressure to exchange floating profits will be reduced. If the regulatory constraints on interest - rate sensitivity indicators are relaxed, it may provide long - term bond allocation space for banks. Securities firms' proprietary trading will continue the aggressive strategy of "bond foundation, equity enhancement" with regulatory support. Wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" era, with product closure and defensive allocation becoming the mainstream. Public funds are expected to repair the liability side through the new fee regulations, the duration strategy may be reopened, and the use of hedging tools will increase. Insurance institutions will focus on long - term allocation, increasing their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - dividend assets. The overall trading attributes of the market will be enhanced, and the allocation strategies will gradually diversify [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Overall, it shows the characteristics of "configuration adjustment and trading enhancement". In 2026, if China follows the Basel regulatory new rules, large banks are expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of government bond allocation space, and the ability to undertake long - term bonds will be marginally improved. The trading attributes of state - owned large banks are gradually strengthening, and they will continue to maintain high trading activity in 2026. If the cost - performance of inter - bank certificates of deposit rises in the future, the bond - allocation strength of rural commercial banks may moderately recover [15]. - Constrained by the deepening of the asset - liability term mismatch, the ability of large banks to undertake long - term bonds is limited. However, if China implements the adjusted international regulatory standards, it is estimated that about 1 trillion yuan of bond - allocation capacity will be added for large banks. In 2025, the AC account proportion of various banks decreased, and the OCI account proportion increased. In 2026, although the pressure on banks to make up for the performance gap by realizing floating profits will weaken, there are still incentives to realize floating profits [16][21]. - State - owned large banks' trading volume of 7 - 10Y treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds in 2025 increased, and the proportion of trading volume also increased compared with the previous two years, showing an active trading strategy. It is expected that this high trading activity will continue in 2026 [29]. - Since the beginning of 2025, affected by the new capital regulations and the decline in the cost - performance of certificates of deposit, the bond - allocation behavior of rural commercial banks in the secondary market has significantly shrunk. If the cost - performance of certificates of deposit recovers and the capital occupation pressure eases in 2026, the bond - allocation strength may moderately recover [32][33]. 3.2 Wealth Management - In 2026, wealth management will fully enter the "true net - value" operation mechanism. In terms of products, "fixed - income +", closed - end and minimum holding - period products will be used to deal with net - value fluctuations; in terms of operation, the management requirements for duration, leverage and liquidity will continue to increase, and the asset allocation will focus on stability and term matching [40]. - In 2026, in the context of low - interest rates and the full - completion of valuation rectification, the scale and number of "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow. The proportion of "fixed - income +" products in fixed - income wealth management is expected to rise steadily [41][42]. - After the full - completion of valuation rectification, the net - value stability constraint of wealth management products has been significantly enhanced. The closed - end and quasi - closed - end operation characteristics of new products are expected to be further strengthened in 2026 [44]. - In 2026, wealth management institutions will pay more attention to the liquidity safety cushion. The proportion of high - liquidity assets in wealth management asset allocation is likely to remain relatively high [50]. - In 2026, wealth management drawdown is expected to be controllable and will change around interest - rate fluctuations. Wealth management institutions may deepen the application of multi - asset allocation strategies to reduce the impact of bond - market fluctuations on net value [52]. - In 2026, the allocation value of amortized - cost bond funds will be further highlighted. The re - investment demand of the expired funds of amortized - cost bond funds is expected to support the short - end credit - bond market [58]. 3.3 Public Funds - In 2026, with the implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds, the bond - market sentiment is expected to be moderately repaired, and the stability improvement of the liability side may create conditions for reopening the duration strategy. The development of innovative tools such as stock - bond constant ETFs is expected to introduce incremental funds, and the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase. The supervision of customized funds and dividend mechanisms will continue to be optimized [65]. - In 2025, the leverage ratio of bond funds decreased, and the duration fluctuated greatly. In 2026, the liability - side and asset - side durations of public funds are expected to increase [66]. - The implementation of the new fee regulations for public funds in 2026 is expected to promote the moderate repair of the bond market and the internal optimization of the bond - fund pattern [71]. - In 2026, the pure - bond fund market may face product - pattern adjustment. The smooth development of stock - bond constant ETFs may bring incremental funds to the equity and interest - rate bond markets and weaken the traditional "stock - bond seesaw" effect in the short term [76]. - In 2026, the number of funds using the negative - duration strategy may increase to manage risk exposure in the context of low - interest rates and high volatility in the bond market [79]. - In 2026, there is still room for optimization of customized funds and dividend mechanisms in the public - fund industry. The regulatory authorities may put forward rectification requirements for customized funds with a high institutional - holding ratio and optimize the dividend mechanism [82][84]. 3.4 Insurance - In 2026, the investment strategy of insurance institutions is expected to shift from "trading" to "allocation - based". The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds such as treasury bonds has declined, and the asset - allocation structure will be further optimized [87]. - In 2025, affected by the regulatory reduction of the liability - side pricing ceiling, new - policy attractiveness weakened, and premium growth slowed down. Insurance funds preferred a Carry - based strategy, with a decline in the turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and a stable or rising allocation weight [88]. - As of Q3 2025, bonds still accounted for more than 50% of insurance - fund asset allocation, but the growth rate of equity investment was relatively fast. In 2026, if the new fee regulations weaken the cost - performance of bond funds, some insurance funds may shift to equity assets, but it will not significantly affect their bond - market allocation [94]. - In 2026, under the dual - system drive of the new asset - liability regulations and new accounting standards, insurance institutions will significantly increase their allocation of long - duration interest - rate bonds and high - grade general credit bonds and reduce the allocation of bank Tier 2 capital bonds. The proportion of participating insurance is expected to continue to increase, and the equity - asset allocation will focus on high - dividend and low - valuation stocks [100][101]. 3.5 Securities Firms' Proprietary Trading - In 2026, the bond - allocation of securities firms' proprietary trading will continue to focus on interest - rate bonds and high - grade credit bonds, and the equity - allocation is expected to achieve "both quantity and quality improvement" under regulatory encouragement, with a preference for standardized products such as broad - based index constituent stocks and liquid ETFs [103]. - From March 2021 to November 2025, the bond - holding scale of securities firms' proprietary trading increased, and the proportion of interest - rate bonds rose. In 2026, the bond - holding scale is expected to continue to grow, and the credit - bond allocation will continue to concentrate on high - grade bonds [104][105]. - In 2025, the floating - profit scale of securities firms' proprietary trading turned from negative to positive, and they showed advantages in stop - profit operation and holding - cost control [109]. - Regulatory support for securities firms' proprietary trading to increase equity - asset allocation has increased. In 2026, securities firms may further increase their equity - asset allocation, with a possible preference for standardized products [114].

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the total wealth management scale in the market will grow by approximately 3.5 trillion yuan to reach 33-34 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by multiple factors including deposit "disintermediation" and the expansion of wealth management products [4]. Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - Deposit "disintermediation" remains a crucial support factor, but the growth pace may experience fluctuations; a neutral estimate suggests an increase of around 3 trillion yuan in 2026 [4]. - The maturity of over 41 trillion yuan in deposits from listed banks in 2026 is expected, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 9 trillion yuan [4]. - Factors such as the "true net value" operation leading to increased yield volatility and pressure on "ranking" product scales may cause fluctuations in the growth pace of wealth management [4]. Group 2: Product Layout - The focus is on building a stable low-volatility foundation while actively expanding rights-containing products, with an estimated 150-300 billion yuan in funds expected to flow into the stock market from wealth management in 2026 [5]. - The "fixed income +" wealth management scale is projected to grow by 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with a nearly 16% increase in the existing scale by year-end compared to the beginning of the year [5]. - Regulatory bodies are conducting research on the challenges and bottlenecks regarding wealth management funds entering the market, indicating a strong demand for expanding rights-containing products [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - There remains a rigid allocation to deposit-type assets, with a shift towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches to enhance returns [6]. - The report suggests that the allocation to bonds may increase if the relative "cost-effectiveness" of deposits and bonds changes, alongside changes in the stability of wealth management liabilities [6]. - The forecast for wealth management's bond allocation indicates a strong demand for short-term bonds, while the capacity for mid to long-term allocations may decrease, leading to a steepening yield curve [6]. Group 4: Wealth Management Operations - The performance benchmarks for wealth management are expected to face downward pressure, with potential for increased net value drawdown risks [7]. - The "true net value" operation model may lead to a weaker customer experience in terms of returns in 2026 compared to the previous year [7]. - Despite these challenges, factors such as increased liquidity reserves and regulatory support for liquidity are expected to mitigate redemption pressures [7]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies is expected to continue rising, with channel factors being a significant variable affecting the competitive landscape [8]. - The distribution channels for wealth management are anticipated to further penetrate county-level regions, enhancing customer reach and potentially increasing market share [8]. - The number of wealth management institutions is expected to remain stable, with the possibility of new institutions being established [8].

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry has deeply integrated into the capital market, becoming a key driving force for its maturity, stability, and efficiency [3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The banking wealth management sector is entering a new phase of leapfrog development characterized by simultaneous growth in scale and deepening of functions [3]. - The competition in the industry is shifting focus from channels and marketing to investment research capabilities, risk pricing, and asset acquisition [3]. - Multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches have become a consensus within the industry, with "+strategy" products growing by 73% last year, accounting for over 32% of total products [3]. Group 2: Role in Economic Support - Banking wealth management serves as a major force in credit bond investments and supports key sectors through innovative tools like Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs and ABS [4]. - The sector is actively engaging in flexible equity investments, including direct stock investments, index ETFs, and REITs, while also supporting other asset management sub-industries through FOF and MOM collaborations [4]. - Since 2025, regulatory measures will facilitate the entry of banking wealth management into the market, allowing it to play a more significant role in capital market development [4]. Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company aims to fulfill its "political mission" by efficiently directing banking wealth management funds to the most vital and dynamic sectors of the national economy [5]. - It emphasizes the importance of protecting the interests of ordinary investors, ensuring that they can share in the growth of the Chinese economy [5]. - The company is committed to enhancing its investment research foundation and developing multi-asset strategies to provide stable returns for clients across economic cycles [5].

Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector is entering a new development stage amid a reshaping of the wealth management system, driven by low interest rates, high volatility, and an "asset shortage" [1] - Bank wealth management products are evolving from a single focus to a more diversified approach, with risk presentation becoming more transparent and asset allocation expanding from traditional "fixed income" to "fixed income + multi-asset multi-strategy" [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The structural changes in the bank wealth management market are evident, with the total scale of bank wealth management products surpassing 32 trillion yuan in the third quarter, marking a 4.76% increase from the second quarter [2] - The "fixed income +" strategy products are expanding, with their scale increasing from 15.30 trillion yuan in July to 16.13 trillion yuan in October [2] - Cash management products showed significant growth in the third quarter, with a month-on-month increase of 8.8% in September [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation and Strategies - The low interest rate environment and "asset shortage" are pushing banks to move away from reliance on fixed income, with "multi-asset multi-strategy" becoming a consensus in the industry [3] - Banks are adjusting their asset allocation structures by incorporating convertible bonds, gold, REITs, and quantitative strategies to broaden income sources while controlling volatility [2][3] Group 3: Regulatory Changes - The implementation of asset management regulations is promoting a shift towards net value-based product structures, with ongoing corrections to practices that obscure net value fluctuations [4] - Regulatory bodies are halting practices like closing price valuations and requiring wealth management companies to phase out smoothing valuations, aiming for a clearer market pricing mechanism [4] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Demand - The demand for wealth management among residents is increasing, with bank wealth management products becoming a key component of household asset allocation [6][7] - A survey indicates that 18.5% of residents prefer to invest more, with 36% favoring "non-principal guaranteed bank wealth management" as their preferred investment method [7] - The shift from deposit thinking to wealth management thinking is accelerating as deposit rates decline, prompting more individuals to seek better returns through bank wealth management [7][8]