Report Title - Shanghai Copper Holiday Event Review and Outlook [1] Report Date - February 23, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Overseas macro factors are mixed, and there is inventory accumulation during the holiday. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Before the holiday, the spot trading of copper was sluggish, and the discount was under pressure [12] - During the holiday, the 0 - 3M discount of LME copper narrowed compared with the previous period [14] Fundamental Data - On February 13, the spot TC of copper concentrate was about -$50.53/ton, still at a low level [17] - In January, the copper content of copper concentrate produced by the mining industry in Peru completed 115.1% of the plan, a new high in the same period [20] - Before the holiday, the spread between refined copper and scrap copper strengthened [23] - Satellite data showed that the smelting activity in January reached the lowest level in the past decade [25] - From January to December, the cumulative import of unwrought copper and copper products was 5.321 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [27] - Before the holiday, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [28] - During the holiday, both LME copper inventory and COMEX copper inventory increased [29] - At the end of pre - holiday stocking, the operating rate of refined copper rods decreased month - on - month [31] - From February 1 - 8, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 42% year - on - year [33] - It is expected that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 2026 will be 180 - 240GW [34] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in February decreased by 22.1% compared with the actual performance in the same period last year due to the adjustment of the Spring Festival production schedule [37] Macroeconomic Data - China's credit had a good start: in January, the new social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 4.71 trillion yuan [41] - The US core PCE price index in December increased by 3% year - on - year, exceeding expectations [42] - The minutes of the Fed meeting revealed significant internal differences [45]

2026 年 02 月 04 日 短纤：情绪风险释放，短期震荡为主 20260204 瓶片：情绪风险释放，短期震荡为主 20260204 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2603 | 6484 | 6656 | -172 | PF03-04 | -48 | -56 | 8 | | PF | 短纤2604 | 6532 | 6712 | -180 | PF04-05 | 0 | -68 | ୧୫ | | | 短纤2605 | 6532 | 6780 | -248 | PF主力基差 | 33 | -42 | 75 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 141023 | 168413 | -27390 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 565 | 6.670 | -105 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 151188 | 162894 | -11706 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) experienced a slight pullback, with the market focusing on expectations of policy easing and short-term fluctuations [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Huabao Securities indicated that the yield center of the bond market is shifting upward, suggesting a continuation of wave-based operations [1] - The spring market rally is likely to persist, and the later timing of the Spring Festival may lead to better economic data for January, resulting in a mid-term bond market that may maintain a weak oscillating pattern [1] - Short-term yields are expected to have an upper limit, with a focus on wave-based operations [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years listed on the exchange [1] - Since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved new net value highs, with historical performance remaining robust [1] - As of the end of the second quarter, the one-year return rate was 5.88%, the three-year return rate was 16.13%, the five-year return rate was 22.41%, and the cumulative return since inception reached 36.68% [1] - The ETF has maintained positive returns every year since its establishment, spanning seven complete natural years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Short fibers and bottle chips are supported by costs, experiencing short - term fluctuations and facing medium - term pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Short Fibers - For short fiber 2512, the price was 6204 yesterday, up 6 from the day before [1] - For short fiber 2601, the price was 6304 yesterday, down 2 from the day before [1] - For short fiber 2602, the price was 6304 yesterday, up 54 from the day before [1] - PF12 - 01 was - 100 yesterday, up 8 from the day before; PF01 - 02 was 0 yesterday, down 56 from the day before [1] - The short - fiber main contract basis was 146 yesterday, down 6 from the day before [1] - The short - fiber main contract open interest was 241,884 yesterday, down 70,430 from the day before [1] - The short - fiber main contract trading volume was 167,780 yesterday, down 9,174 from the day before [1] - The short - fiber sales - to - production ratio was 51% yesterday, down 37% from the day before [1] - The short - fiber spot price in East China remained at 6,350 [1] Bottle Chips - For bottle chip 2512, the price was 5726 yesterday, down 6 from the day before [1] - For bottle chip 2601, the price was 5746 yesterday, down 10 from the day before [1] - For bottle chip 2602, the price was 5832 yesterday, down 4 from the day before [1] - PR12 - 01 was - 20 yesterday, up 4 from the day before; PR01 - 02 was - 86 yesterday, down 6 from the day before [1] - The bottle - chip main contract basis was 24 yesterday, up 10 from the day before [1] - The bottle - chip main contract open interest was 19,579 yesterday, down 1,109 from the day before [1] - The bottle - chip main contract trading volume was 20,027 yesterday, down 10,140 from the day before [1] - The bottle - chip spot price in East China and South China remained at 5770 and 5850 respectively [1] 3.2 Spot News Short Fibers - Today, short - fiber futures fluctuated within a narrow range. In the spot market, factory quotes remained stable in the morning. Some quotes from futures - cash and traders remained stable, while some discounts were moderately reduced. The mainstream quotes for semi - dull 1.4D were in the range of 6500 - 6600, and the negotiation focus was mostly in the range of 6300 - 6500. Factory sales declined moderately today. Sales in Fujian were better than those in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Traders had few sales, and high - price transactions were difficult. As of around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 61% [1] Bottle Chips - The upstream raw material futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable, with some locally increasing by 10 - 50 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was light during the day. There was a large price gap between different brands. Orders for December - January were mostly traded at 5750 - 5830 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some individual brands slightly lower at around 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton ex - factory and a small amount slightly higher at around 5850 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short fibers and bottle chips was 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main contract in the daytime session on the reporting day [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are supported by costs, with short - term fluctuations and medium - term pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures prices (2512, 2601, 2602) increased, with changes of 42, 40, and 138 respectively; PF12 - 01 increased by 2, PF01 - 02 decreased by 98; PF main contract basis increased by 8; main contract open interest increased by 143,281, and trading volume decreased by 6,176; East China spot price increased by 50, and the production - sales ratio increased by 35% to 88% [1] Bottle - chip - Bottle - chip futures prices (2512, 2601, 2602) increased, with changes of 42, 30, and 48 respectively; PR12 - 01 increased by 12, PR01 - 02 decreased by 18; PR main contract basis remained unchanged; main contract open interest decreased by 96, and trading volume decreased by 15,800; East China spot price increased by 30, and South China spot price increased by 70 [1] 3.2 Spot News Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures fluctuated upwards. In the morning, factory quotes were stable, discounts from futures - cash and traders narrowed. As the market continued to rise, factory sales improved, and most quotes were raised by 50 - 100 yuan/ton in the afternoon. The mainstream semi - bright 1.4D quotes were in the range of 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and the negotiation focus was in the range of 6,300 - 6,500 yuan/ton. The quotes of hollow and low - melting - point short - fiber factories were also raised by 50 - 100 yuan/ton in the afternoon. As of 3:00 pm, the average production - sales ratio was 88% [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream raw material futures fluctuated after rising. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly raised by 30 - 60 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average, and there was a large price gap between different brands. Orders from December to January were mostly traded at 5,720 - 5,800 yuan/ton ex - factory, with a small amount slightly lower at around 5,660 - 5,670 yuan/ton ex - factory and a small amount slightly higher at around 5,830 - 5,900 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime main contract futures price fluctuations was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Weak or Bearish Outlook**: PX, PTA, MEG, asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, benzene ethylene [4][12][13][24][38][42][45][86][90][68] - **Neutral Outlook**: rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, LPG [4][14][20][50][55][59][64][74] - **Specific Strategy**: For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread and stay on the sidelines for the near - month contracts [4] 2. Core Views - **PX/PTA**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. There is limited upside space, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of polyester production cuts. The supply - demand balance sheet continues to destock, which is beneficial for the near - month positive spread positions [12][13] - **MEG**: There are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses. A positive spread strategy for monthly differences is recommended [13] - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] - **LLDPE**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply of polyethylene has high - production and high - inventory pressure, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **PP**: Prices have a slight decline, and trading volume is average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to operate weakly. There is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals, and future production will remain high [45][47] - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is in a state of oversupply, and demand is weak [50][53] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][56] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market [60][62] - **Urea**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity. The futures price will have a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [64][66][67] - **Benzene Ethylene**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity. The supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, and the inventory of benzene ethylene is low [68][69] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] - **LPG**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] - **PVC**: It is expected to operate weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Fuel Oil**: It has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX/PTA/MEG - **Fundamentals**: On May 22, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC's main closing prices all decreased compared to the previous day, with declines of 2.2%, 1.8%, 0.1%, 1.4%, and 1.8% respectively. The monthly differences, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6] - **Market Overview**: Due to falling oil prices and a slight slowdown in downstream polyester production, the price of Asian p - xylene has declined. The expected slowdown in China's downstream polyester business has begun, but the current production reduction may not have a significant impact on prices. The PTA load has increased to 77.1%, and the overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland has decreased to 58.25% [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: OPEC's planned production increase in July led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing PX and PTA prices to weaken unilaterally. The supply of PX and PTA has increased, and the upward momentum of prices has weakened. For MEG, there are more device overhauls, and the long - PTA short - MEG position should stop losses [12][13] 3.2 Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the rubber futures market on May 22 decreased compared to the previous day. The prices of various rubber varieties in the spot market were relatively stable, with some small fluctuations [16] - **Industry News**: In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will continue to decrease in May due to the unstable raw material supply in overseas production areas at the beginning of the new tapping season [18][19] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely, with a neutral trend intensity [14][16] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume of the synthetic rubber futures market on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The prices of various synthetic rubber varieties in the spot market decreased, while the price of butadiene increased. The profit of cis - butadiene rubber has improved [20] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports continued to decline. The price of cis - butadiene rubber is restricted by the overall rubber sector, and the upside space is narrowed [20][23] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a neutral trend intensity [20][22] 3.4 Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures contracts on May 22 had different changes. The spot prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions remained stable. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate decreased slightly [24] - **Market News**: In the week of May 16 - 22, 2025, China's asphalt weekly output decreased. As of May 22, the inventory of asphalt sample factories decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly [37] - **Market Outlook**: As crude oil prices continue to weaken, asphalt prices will follow and decline [24] 3.5 LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The price of LLDPE futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China decreased [38] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PE market has declined slightly this week. The market is under pressure due to limited downstream demand and slow de - stocking in the upstream and middle reaches. The supply pressure of polyethylene in 2025 is still high, and the demand is weak [38][39] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [38][41] 3.6 PP - **Fundamentals**: The price of PP futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in North, East, and South China had slight adjustments [42] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PP market has been slightly adjusted, with weak trading volume. The futures market has little guidance for the spot market, and downstream demand is insufficient [43] - **Market Outlook**: The price will decline slightly, and trading volume will be average, with a neutral trend intensity [42][43] 3.7 Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures and the spot price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong on May 23 are provided, and the basis is 128 [45] - **Market Conditions**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable with a slight increase. From the fundamental perspective, caustic soda lacks continuous upward drivers. The supply will remain high in the future, and it is in the off - season of demand [46][47] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [45][49] 3.8 Paper Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and open interest of paper pulp futures on May 22 decreased. The spot prices of various paper pulp varieties had different changes, with a slight increase in the average price of softwood pulp and a decrease in the average price of hardwood pulp [51] - **Industry News**: The price of imported paper pulp showed a "first - up - then - down" trend this week. The main reasons are the fading of policy benefits, obvious demand differentiation, and unresolved port inventory contradictions [52][53] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a neutral trend intensity [50][51] 3.9 Glass - **Fundamentals**: The price of the FG509 glass futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang had different changes [56] - **Market Conditions**: The price of domestic float glass original sheets was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading atmosphere was average, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [56] - **Market Outlook**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a neutral trend intensity [55][57] 3.10 Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The price of methanol futures on May 22 decreased, and the open interest increased. The spot prices in Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and other regions decreased [60] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic methanol market has declined this week. The supply has an incremental expectation, which suppresses the market. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the MTO start - up rate is relatively high [62][63] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to be under pressure while fluctuating, with a neutral trend intensity [59][63] 3.11 Urea - **Fundamentals**: The price of urea futures on May 22 decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. The spot prices of urea factories and traders were relatively stable [65] - **Industry News**: As of May 21, China's urea enterprise inventory increased. The futures price of urea is expected to fluctuate in a long - short game, with support below and limited upside due to policy control [66][67] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a neutral trend intensity [64][67] 3.12 Benzene Ethylene - **Fundamentals**: The prices of benzene ethylene futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The spot price of benzene ethylene decreased, and the inventory was at a low level [68] - **Market Conditions**: The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the supply pressure continues to recover. The downstream demand for pure benzene is weak, and the short - term supply exceeds demand. The downstream production and sales of benzene ethylene were strong on Monday but declined rapidly from Tuesday to Friday [69] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a bearish trend intensity [68][69] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The price of the SA2509 soda ash futures on May 22 increased slightly, and the trading volume was large. The spot prices in North, East, and Central China remained stable [72] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with minor fluctuations. The supply has a slight adjustment, and downstream demand is not strong [72] - **Market Outlook**: The spot market has little change, with a neutral trend intensity [70][72] 3.14 LPG - **Fundamentals**: The prices of LPG futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spreads between Guangzhou's domestic and imported LPG and the 07 - contract increased. The PDH start - up rate increased [74] - **Market News**: There are many PDH device overhauls in the industry. The cost support for LPG is weakening [74][81] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly overall, with a neutral trend intensity [74][80] 3.15 PVC - **Fundamentals**: The price of the 09 - contract PVC futures on May 23 and the spot price in East China are provided, and the basis is - 96 [86] - **Market Conditions**: The domestic PVC market has declined slightly this week. The fundamentals are expected to be weak, with the release of new production capacity and the arrival of the rainy - season off - season. The high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to change [86][87] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to operate weakly, with a bearish trend intensity [86][89] 3.16 Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts on May 22 decreased, and the trading volume and open interest had different changes. The spot prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [90] - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil has dropped significantly and entered a short - term weak state. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to follow the decline of crude oil, and the narrowing trend of the high - low sulfur spread in the external market has暂缓 [90] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts on May 22 had different changes, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The freight rates of European and US - West routes in the SCFIS and SCFI indices had different changes [92] - **Market Outlook**: Stay on the sidelines for near - month contracts and hold a 10 - 12 reverse spread [31]