Group 1: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Oil Supply - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has heightened tensions in the international petrochemical market, particularly following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to Iran's parliament voting to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for nearly 20% of global oil supply [1] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a direct and profound threat to the world economy, as it is a major transport route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] - Although the situation has somewhat eased, surrounding countries are proactively seeking alternative routes to mitigate the impact of a potential closure, but current efforts appear insufficient to offset the consequences [1] Group 2: Saudi Arabia's Oil Export Strategies - Saudi Arabia's key alternative to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is the East-West pipeline, capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day, connecting major oil production facilities to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf [2] - As of June, the Ras Tanura port, which is the largest oil export port in the Persian Gulf, had an average daily export volume of 5.3 million barrels [2] - The East-West pipeline could potentially expand its capacity to 7 million barrels per day, but practical testing of this maximum capacity has not yet occurred [2][3] Group 3: UAE's Preparations and Infrastructure - The UAE is focusing on the Fujairah port, which serves as the endpoint for the 1.5 million barrels per day Habshan pipeline, as a substitute for oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The current capacity of the Habshan pipeline is significantly lower than the UAE's total oil export volume of 3.5 million barrels per day [4] - The UAE has developed large underground caverns in Fujairah for oil storage, with a total capacity of 42 million barrels, and plans for further expansion [4] Group 4: Iraq's Oil Export Challenges - Iraq is exploring alternatives to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Turkey proposing a new pipeline from Basra to Ceyhan to enhance oil and gas exports [6] - The existing Northern Pipeline (ITP) has been closed since March 2023 due to disputes with the Kurdish region, complicating Iraq's ability to export oil [5][6] - The potential for reopening the ITP hinges on resolving outstanding issues between various parties, which may not be quickly achievable unless the Strait remains closed for an extended period [5] Group 5: Broader Regional Implications - Other major oil-producing countries in the Gulf region, such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, currently lack alternative export routes to the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Qatar, Kuwait, and the neutral zone jointly exported a total of 2.4 million barrels per day in June, while Iran primarily exports 1.5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf [6] - The logistical constraints faced by these countries indicate that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely lead to immediate supply shortages in the oil market, resulting in price surges [6]

国际能源署最新发布国际石油市场中期展望报告指出，由于受地缘政治风险升级和贸易摩擦冲突加剧等 因素影响，国际石油市场前景面临多重不确定性，未来几年，全球石油供应量的增长幅度将大幅超过需 求增长。国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示："未来数年，石油市场或将维持充足供应，然而近期局势 急剧凸显出石油供应安全面临的重大地缘政治风险。" 随着交通运输和发电领域持续向多元燃料转型，石化行业预计将从2026年起，成为全球石油需求增长的 主要驱动力。石化消费增长与液化天然气供应的大幅增长密切相关。预计到2030年，全球聚合物和合成 纤维生产将消耗1840万桶/日的石油，相当于全球每6桶石油消费中就有1桶多用于石化产品生产。 报告预测，2024年至2030年，新兴发展中经济体的强劲需求增长，与发达经济体持续萎缩的需求增长形 成鲜明对比。其中，亚洲市场主导市场增量，而东南亚经济体石油消费的显著增长不容忽视。相比之 下，主要由发达经济体组成的经济合作与发展组织国家石油消费量预计到2030年将下降170万桶/日。 报告指出，油价下行将抑制上游产能扩张。2025年初的油价暴跌和投资环境不确定性增加，导致全球石 油企业重新评估上游业务投资 ...

油价或迎年内最大涨幅。 6月27日，国际油价上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨0.28美元报每桶 65.52美元，涨幅0.43%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货上涨0.04美元报每桶67.77美元，涨幅0.06%。 7月1日24时，国内成品油价格或迎来上涨，预计汽、柴油每吨上调600元，折合每升上涨0.49至0.51元。 按此计算，加满一箱50升的92号汽油将多花24至25元。 据了解，本周期油价开局就展现出上涨趋势。6月18日，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上 涨30美分，收于每桶75.14美元，涨幅为0.40%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨25美分，收于 每桶76.70美元，涨幅为0.33%。 业内人士分析，近期伊以冲突持续发酵导致国际原油供应紧张，全球原油需求强劲，促使油价居高不 下。 据国际能源署发布的报告，受地缘政治压力及全球经济前景不确定性增加等因素的影响，国际石油市场 正经历结构性变化，未来几年全球石油供应增长将远远超过需求增长。 上述报告预计，2024年至2030年，全球原油需求日均增加250万桶，但全球原油产能日均增加超过500万 桶。到2030年， ...

原油日报 | 2025-06-18 美国下场参与中东冲突可能性增加 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.07美元，收于每桶74.84美元，涨幅为4.28%；8月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨3.22美元，收于每桶76.45美元，涨幅为4.40%。SC原油主力合约收涨6.13%，报553元/ 桶。 2、IEA发布石油市场月报：预计2025年原油总需求将达到平均1.038亿桶/日，2026年为1.045亿桶/日；预计2025年 全球石油供应为1.049亿桶/日，2026年为1.06亿桶/日；将2025年平均石油需求增长预期从74万桶/日下调至72万桶/ 日，将2026年的从76万桶/日下调至74万桶/日；将2025年全球石油供应增长预测从160万桶/日上调至180万桶/日， 将2026年的从97万桶/日上调至110万桶/日。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、IEA认为，鉴于美国汽油价格走低且电动汽车普及放缓，全球石油需求仍将增长至本十年末。这与欧佩克认为 石油消费将持续增长，且未预测需求峰值的观点形成鲜明对比。IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到1.056亿 桶/日的 ...

能源情报集团记者AmenaBakr：世界上大约20%的石油供应要经过霍尔木兹海峡，而该海峡可能受到伊 朗的干扰。可以通过管道等途径绕过海峡的原油总量约为650万桶/日。 ...