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伊朗方面多次威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡 周边国家未雨绸缪另寻“出路”
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-07-04 02:29
Group 1: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Oil Supply - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has heightened tensions in the international petrochemical market, particularly following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to Iran's parliament voting to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for nearly 20% of global oil supply [1] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a direct and profound threat to the world economy, as it is a major transport route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) [1] - Although the situation has somewhat eased, surrounding countries are proactively seeking alternative routes to mitigate the impact of a potential closure, but current efforts appear insufficient to offset the consequences [1] Group 2: Saudi Arabia's Oil Export Strategies - Saudi Arabia's key alternative to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is the East-West pipeline, capable of transporting 5 million barrels per day, connecting major oil production facilities to the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf [2] - As of June, the Ras Tanura port, which is the largest oil export port in the Persian Gulf, had an average daily export volume of 5.3 million barrels [2] - The East-West pipeline could potentially expand its capacity to 7 million barrels per day, but practical testing of this maximum capacity has not yet occurred [2][3] Group 3: UAE's Preparations and Infrastructure - The UAE is focusing on the Fujairah port, which serves as the endpoint for the 1.5 million barrels per day Habshan pipeline, as a substitute for oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The current capacity of the Habshan pipeline is significantly lower than the UAE's total oil export volume of 3.5 million barrels per day [4] - The UAE has developed large underground caverns in Fujairah for oil storage, with a total capacity of 42 million barrels, and plans for further expansion [4] Group 4: Iraq's Oil Export Challenges - Iraq is exploring alternatives to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Turkey proposing a new pipeline from Basra to Ceyhan to enhance oil and gas exports [6] - The existing Northern Pipeline (ITP) has been closed since March 2023 due to disputes with the Kurdish region, complicating Iraq's ability to export oil [5][6] - The potential for reopening the ITP hinges on resolving outstanding issues between various parties, which may not be quickly achievable unless the Strait remains closed for an extended period [5] Group 5: Broader Regional Implications - Other major oil-producing countries in the Gulf region, such as Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, currently lack alternative export routes to the Strait of Hormuz [6] - Qatar, Kuwait, and the neutral zone jointly exported a total of 2.4 million barrels per day in June, while Iran primarily exports 1.5 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf [6] - The logistical constraints faced by these countries indicate that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would likely lead to immediate supply shortages in the oil market, resulting in price surges [6]
国际能源署最新报告预计:全球石油市场未来几年供应充足
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-29 22:06
Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) report indicates that the global oil supply is expected to grow significantly, driven by production expansions in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., with an increase of 5.1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, reaching 114.7 million bpd, which far exceeds the anticipated demand growth of 2.5 million bpd [1] - The report highlights that geopolitical risks are a major concern for oil supply security, despite the forecast of sufficient supply in the coming years [1] - Global oil production capacity is projected to increase by 1.8 million bpd, primarily from the UAE and Iraq, while global natural gas liquids production is expected to rise by 2.3 million bpd, accounting for nearly 50% of the increase in global oil capacity [1] Group 2 - The report predicts that from 2024 to 2030, global oil demand will grow by 2.5 million bpd, but the growth rate will decline annually due to slowing economic growth and the acceleration of electric alternatives in the transportation sector [2] - The shift towards diversified fuels in transportation and power generation is expected to impact oil demand, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of oil demand growth starting in 2026 [2] - By 2030, global polymer and synthetic fiber production is projected to consume 18.4 million bpd of oil, representing over one-sixth of global oil consumption [2] Group 3 - Emerging economies are expected to see strong demand growth, contrasting with the declining demand in developed economies, particularly in OECD countries, where oil consumption is projected to decrease by 1.7 million bpd by 2030 [3] - The report notes that falling oil prices will suppress upstream capacity expansion, with upstream investment expected to decline to approximately $420 billion in 2025, a decrease of 6% [3] - The refining sector is anticipated to face challenges due to weak growth in refined product demand, with global demand expected to peak at 86.3 million bpd in 2027, only increasing by 710,000 bpd from 2024 [3]
即将调整!油价或迎年内最大涨幅!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-29 02:47
Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices are experiencing significant increases, with expectations of the largest price hike of the year due to geopolitical tensions and strong global demand [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of June 27, 2023, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $0.28 to $65.52 per barrel, an increase of 0.43% [1]. - The Brent crude oil futures for August delivery increased by $0.04 to $67.77 per barrel, marking a rise of 0.06% [1]. - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise, with gasoline and diesel projected to increase by 600 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of approximately 0.49 to 0.51 yuan per liter [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that from 2024 to 2030, global oil demand will increase by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day, while global oil production capacity is expected to rise by over 5 million barrels per day [2]. - By 2030, global oil demand is projected to reach approximately 105.5 million barrels per day, while production capacity will reach about 114.7 million barrels per day [2]. - The IEA's director highlighted that while oil supply is expected to remain ample in the coming years, recent events underscore significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security [2].
原油日报:美国下场参与中东冲突可能性增加-20250618
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:10
原油日报 | 2025-06-18 美国下场参与中东冲突可能性增加 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.07美元,收于每桶74.84美元,涨幅为4.28%;8月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨3.22美元,收于每桶76.45美元,涨幅为4.40%。SC原油主力合约收涨6.13%,报553元/ 桶。 2、IEA发布石油市场月报:预计2025年原油总需求将达到平均1.038亿桶/日,2026年为1.045亿桶/日;预计2025年 全球石油供应为1.049亿桶/日,2026年为1.06亿桶/日;将2025年平均石油需求增长预期从74万桶/日下调至72万桶/ 日,将2026年的从76万桶/日下调至74万桶/日;将2025年全球石油供应增长预测从160万桶/日上调至180万桶/日, 将2026年的从97万桶/日上调至110万桶/日。(来源:Bloomberg) 3、IEA认为,鉴于美国汽油价格走低且电动汽车普及放缓,全球石油需求仍将增长至本十年末。这与欧佩克认为 石油消费将持续增长,且未预测需求峰值的观点形成鲜明对比。IEA报告显示,石油需求将于2029年达到1.056亿 桶/日的 ...
能源情报集团记者AmenaBakr:世界上大约20%的石油供应要经过霍尔木兹海峡,而该海峡可能受到伊朗的干扰。可以通过管道等途径绕过海峡的原油总量约为650万桶/日。
news flash· 2025-06-12 01:29
Core Viewpoint - Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which may be subject to disruptions from Iran [1] Group 1 - The total amount of crude oil that can be bypassed through pipelines and other routes is about 6.5 million barrels per day [1]