Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Report Core View - The focus in the market currently is on mine - end disturbances. If there is a short - term shutdown for rectification and then resumption after the mine certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supply from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. There may be a further push to raise the futures price from a market sentiment perspective, but the previous price increase has already factored in the shutdown impact, so the expected upside is limited. If the mine certificates are renewed smoothly, the supply side remains in a loose pattern. Given large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, small downstream production increase, the futures price may correct downward and return to the fundamental logic. Due to uncertainty and market rumors, investors are advised to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan with a daily increase of 800 yuan [1] Lithium Futures - Lithium carbonate 2508 futures contract closed at 75,300 yuan, up 7.57%; lithium carbonate 2509 at 76,640 yuan, up 7.82%; lithium carbonate 2510 at 76,900 yuan, up 7.67%; lithium carbonate 2511 at 76,960 yuan, up 7.73%; lithium carbonate 2512 at 77,120 yuan, up 7.38% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 777 yuan with a daily increase of 20 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) at 1,120 yuan with a daily increase of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) at 1,800 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) at 5,675 yuan with a daily increase of 125 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) at 6,650 yuan with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,850 yuan with a daily increase of 280 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,320 yuan with a daily increase of 60 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,995 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,585 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main futures contract is - 5,060 yuan, with a change of - 3,860 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 260 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, with a change of 60 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2,271 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 18,829 tons, with an increase of 2,386 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 69,521 yuan, with a profit of 1,349 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,368 yuan, with a profit of - 8,388 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The current core of the lithium carbonate game is still the disruption at the mining end. With the lithium mining approval in Jiangxi still undetermined and the consumer end showing a month - on - month increase in August, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of lithium mining approval, as significant production cuts or shutdowns could change the short - term supply - demand pattern and drive up prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 69,280 yuan/ton and closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, with a 0.09% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 247,898 lots, and the open interest was 207,770 lots, down from 216,103 lots the previous day. The current basis is 1,910 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 12,603 lots, a change of 5,998 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,700 - 73,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,650 - 69,850 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 745 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. Downstream buyers are still观望 and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. - In July 2025, China's lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased by about 3.9% month - on - month and about 32.9% year - on - year. It is expected to increase by about 6.4% month - on - month and about 26% year - on - year in August [1]. - In July 2025, China's electrolyte production increased by 1.96% month - on - month and about 48.8% year - on - year. It is expected to increase by about 4.1% month - on - month and about 40.0% year - on - year in August [2]. Strategy - The current core of the lithium carbonate game is the disruption at the mining end, including lithium mining approval in Jiangxi and some disruptions in African mines. With the consumer end showing a month - on - month increase in August, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of lithium mining approval, as significant production cuts or shutdowns could change the short - term supply - demand pattern and drive up prices [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5].