Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for China in 2025 is expected to show steady progress, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization, as indicated by the Chief Economist Confidence Index of 50.32 for January 2026, reflecting a recovery from the previous month [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The average forecast for December 2025 CPI year-on-year growth is 0.8%, slightly higher than the previous month's 0.7% [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 PPI year-on-year growth is -2.0%, an improvement from -2.2% in the previous month [8][10]. - The average forecast for December 2025 industrial added value year-on-year growth is 4.9%, up from 4.8% in November [13]. - The average forecast for December 2025 fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is -2.2%, an improvement from -2.6% in November [14]. - The average forecast for December 2025 social retail sales year-on-year growth is 1.8%, with a range from 0.6% to 4.9% [10][11]. - The average forecast for December 2025 trade surplus is $1113.5 billion, slightly lower than the previous month's $1116.8 billion [17]. - The average forecast for December 2025 new loans is 7182.5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [19]. - The average forecast for December 2025 total social financing is 1.8 trillion yuan, down from 2.5 trillion yuan in November [21]. - The average forecast for December 2025 M2 year-on-year growth is 8%, consistent with the previous month's figure [21][23]. - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves are expected to be $33579 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [23]. Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with an increase in fiscal deficit and government debt issuance to support economic growth [25][27]. - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain accommodative, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to ensure liquidity and lower financing costs [26][27].

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, showing high instability but resilience [1] - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [2][3] Inflation and Price Predictions - The average predicted year-on-year CPI growth for December 2025 is 0.8%, while the PPI is forecasted at -2% [5][6] - CPI predictions range from a minimum of 0.5% to a maximum of 0.9%, indicating a slight increase from November's 0.7% [6] - The PPI predictions range from -2.3% to -1.9%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's -2.2% [6] Industrial and Investment Growth - The predicted growth rate for industrial added value in December 2025 is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's 4.8% [9][10] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by an average of -2.2%, showing a recovery from November's -2.6% [11] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to decrease by -15.8%, with signs of a narrowing decline in transaction volumes [12] Trade and Export Forecasts - The trade surplus for December 2025 is predicted to be $1113.5 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous month [13][14] - Exports are expected to grow by 2.5%, down from 5.9% in the previous month, while imports are forecasted to increase by 0.7% [14][15] Financing and Monetary Policy - New loans are projected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan in December 2025, recovering from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [15][16] - The total social financing is expected to average 1.8 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's 2.5 trillion yuan [16][17] - M2 growth is predicted to remain at 8%, consistent with November's figures [18] Policy Directions - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with an increase in the scale of government debt and continued support for local debt initiatives [20][21] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [20][21]

Economic Confidence Index - The "Economic Confidence Index" for December 2025 is reported at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery in the economy [6][8]. Inflation Predictions - Economists predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 to be 0.72%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.05% [9][10]. Retail Sales Growth - The forecast for the year-on-year growth of social retail sales in November is 3.09%, slightly higher than the previous month's 2.9%, driven by the "Double 11" shopping festival and a recovery in the dining sector [10][11]. Industrial Value Added - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added in November is 5.0%, an increase from the previous month's 4.9% [11]. Fixed Asset Investment - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7%, indicating continued pressure from the real estate market [12][14]. Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in November is -15.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [14]. Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus for November is reported at $111.68 billion, with exports growing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9%, aligning with economists' expectations [15]. New Loans - Economists forecast new loans for November to rebound to 679.1 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 220 billion yuan [16]. Total Social Financing - The predicted total social financing for November is 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous month's 0.81 trillion yuan [17]. M2 Growth Rate - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in November is 8.29%, slightly above the previous month's 8.2% [18]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Economists expect the possibility of adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and reserve requirement ratios to be low in the near term, with a continued focus on maintaining liquidity in the market [20]. Exchange Rate Predictions - The predicted exchange rate for the Chinese yuan against the US dollar at the end of 2025 is 7.07, with expectations of a potential adjustment to 6.98 by mid-2026 [21]. Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves are reported at $33,464 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [22][23].

Group 1 - The market remains unfavorable for technology stocks, with recent developments indicating a conservative funding environment [1] - In September, the new social financing amount was 3.53 trillion yuan, which was in line with expectations but did not show significant growth, indicating weak borrowing willingness from both enterprises and individuals [1] - A notable decline in non-bank deposits occurred in September, decreasing by 1.06 trillion yuan, raising concerns among investors about potential capital withdrawal after market gains [2] Group 2 - The decline in non-bank deposits, previously seen as a "bull market signal" when it surged by 4.7 trillion yuan in July, suggests a shift in market sentiment towards caution [2] - The decrease in non-bank deposits may not solely be attributed to securities accounts but could also stem from redemptions in bank wealth management, money market funds, or bond funds [2] - The contraction of this indicator, once viewed as a driving force for the bull market, is likely to exert pressure on the technology sector [2]