8月股市震荡上涨，大量资金通过股票型ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）涌入市场。 不过，从本月以来的ETF份额变化看，部分热门赛道并非资金首选，反而是相对低估的化工、医疗器 械、消费、煤炭等赛道受到了资金的青睐，非银、金融科技赛道也获得资金的追捧。与此同时，本月涨 幅较高的科创、芯片相关ETF中，部分份额出现了较大幅度的减少。 业内人士表示，短期市场情绪升温可能加剧部分标的波动，但医药、AI（人工智能）等赛道仍具投资 机会。对于担心行业主题ETF回撤风险的投资者，可以考虑一些跨行业资产配置的宽基ETF。 资金从科技相关ETF出逃 从ETF的份额变化来看，部分资金对一些赛道似乎出现了"恐高"情绪。 比如，指数刚创下阶段性新高， 科创50ETF却遭资金持续出逃。 科技相关的半导体、芯片等细分赛道在本月表现更猛，但相关主题ETF同样遭遇资金出逃。数据显示， 国联安半导体ETF、华夏芯片ETF、嘉实科创芯片ETF、国泰军工ETF本月份额均减少超20亿份。这些 行业主题ETF本月以来最大涨幅超过30%。 不过，芯片主题ETF的份额变化出现了一定分化。本月大涨的众多科创芯片ETF中，嘉实旗下产品出现 较大幅度的份额减少，华安 ...

01 03 前一交易日（8月25日），全市场ETF净流入超过160亿元，较8月22日净流入额进一步增加。证券板块 ETF吸金势头强劲，部分产品单日净流入超10亿元。 农业畜牧主题ETF领涨 8月26日，农业畜牧主题ETF逆势走强，多只产品涨超2%，位居市场涨幅前列。截至收盘，跻身涨幅前 十的8只农业畜牧主题ETF，今年以来涨幅均超过15%。 农业ETF易方达（562900）以2.94%涨幅位居ETF首位。该基金挂钩中证现代农业主题指数，截至收 盘，30只成分股中，仅3只收跌，7只涨超3%。其中，天马科技（603668）涨超8%，牧原股份 （002714）涨超7%。 在线消费ETF（159728）涨幅紧随其后，收涨2.92%。该基金挂钩国证在线消费指数，截至收盘，50只 成分股中，超过半数上涨。歌尔股份（002241）、三七互娱（002555）、拓维信息（002261）涨停。同 花顺（300033）数据显示，拓维信息、歌尔股份、三七互娱主力净流入金额跻身A股前四，拓维信息主 力净流入超过19亿元，居首位。 8月26日，A股三大主要指数表现分化，上证指数、创业板指均有所回调。全市场1200余只ETF中，超过 80 ...

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-08-25 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《成长风格显著，中盘表现占优——中 邮因子周报 20250817》 - 2025.08.18 《ETF 资金偏谨慎流入消费红利防守， 银行提前调整使指数回调空间可控— — 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250803 》 - 2025.08.04 《ETF 资金持续净流出医药，雅下水电 站成短线情绪突破口——行业轮动周 报 20250727》 – 2025.07.28 《ETF 资金净流入红利流出高位医药， 指数与大金融回调有明显托底——行 业轮动周报 20250720》 – 2025.07.21 《大金融表现居前助指数突破，GRU 行 业轮动调入非银行金融——行业轮动 周报 20250713》 - 2025.07.14 《ETF 流入金融与 TMT，连板高度与涨停 家数限制下活跃资金处观望态势— ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown significant activity, with the A50 index surpassing 14,700 points, marking a ten-month high, indicating strong upward momentum [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with a notable increase in trading volumes and a rise in the financing balance, suggesting a potential influx of capital [7] Securities Sector Performance - Securities stocks have performed well, with major firms like Everbright Securities and Xinda Securities hitting their daily price limits, contributing to a collective surge in the non-bank sector [1][2] - The securities ETF saw an increase of over 3.6% in the afternoon session, reflecting strong investor interest [2] Investor Behavior - Retail investors are showing an increased risk appetite, as evidenced by a rise in inquiries about high-risk products and a general uptick in margin financing activities [5][6] - Despite the market rally, the inflow of retail funds remains cautious compared to previous years, indicating a lingering "fear of heights" sentiment among investors [6] Economic and Policy Factors - The current market rally is supported by several factors, including the easing of systemic risks in the real estate sector and policies aimed at enhancing shareholder returns and promoting high-quality development in the capital market [3][6] - Long-term institutional investors, such as social security and insurance funds, are expected to continue entering the market, providing a stabilizing effect [3][6] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to maintain its upward trajectory, with expectations of increased retail participation and a potential rise in margin financing as the low-interest-rate environment persists into 2024 [6][7] - The overall trading environment is expected to improve, with IPO and refinancing activities likely to pick up as market conditions stabilize [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an optimistic outlook on the Chinese stock market, highlighting significant recent gains and the potential for continued upward movement in the future [1][16]. Market Performance - On August 18, the A-share market surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, and the North Exchange 50 hitting a historical peak [3]. - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history [4]. Fund Performance - There are currently 22 funds that have doubled in value this year, with innovative drug funds leading the way [5][6]. - The average return of these doubling funds is 111.6% year-to-date, indicating strong performance in the innovative drug sector [6]. Sector Analysis - The innovative drug sector has seen a resurgence after four years of stagnation, with several stocks in this category experiencing over 200% to 300% increases this year [8]. - While the innovative drug sector has strong long-term potential, it is noted that there may be adjustments and volatility ahead due to prior significant gains [10]. Economic Context - Since the implementation of economic stimulus policies on September 24, the A-share market has shown a notable recovery, establishing a "slow bull" market trend [16][17]. - There is a substantial amount of excess savings among residents, with potential incremental funds exceeding 50 trillion yuan above the trend line from 2011 to 2019, which could further invigorate the capital market [19][20]. Investment Strategy - The securities sector is expected to exhibit strong upward momentum regardless of whether the market breaks new highs, making securities ETFs a preferred choice for investors [20].

【导读】资金大举涌入券商板块， 8 月 18 日 " 吸金 " 超 23 亿元 中国基金报记者 王思文 8 月 18 日，沪指创下近十年新高， A 股总市值突破 100 万亿元。随着行情日渐火热，作为 " 牛市旗手 " 的券商板块脱颖而出，资金大 举涌入券商板块，尽显市场对该板块的积极看好。 截至 8 月 18 日收盘，证券公司指数自 6 月 23 日底部阶段性低点以来大涨 22.19% ，同时券商指数 " 吸金 " 明显，仅 8 月 18 日单日 净买入超 23 亿元，近 5 日资金流入港股通非银指数超过 34 亿元。 券商 ETF 大动作 资金持续流入券商板块 今年以来，权益市场稳步向上，交易额、两融余额持续提升。市场预期行情持续性增强，或呈现 " 慢牛 " 行情，随之更看好券商业绩的持 续性增长。 估值层面，当前中证全指证券公司指数 PB 约为 1.67 倍，处于近十年历史约 54.6% 的分位点水平，距离 2015 年牛市高点 2.82 倍的 PB 仍有较大差距。 资金层面，近期资金借道 ETF 配置证券公司板块。具体到指数维度， 8 月 18 日证券公司指数单日净流入居前，达 23.16 亿元，港股 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant inflow of funds into the brokerage sector, indicating strong market confidence as the A-share market reaches new highs, with the total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan [1][2][4] - As of August 18, the securities company index has surged by 22.19% since its low on June 23, with a notable net inflow of over 2.3 billion yuan on that day alone [1][4] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of the CSI All Share Securities Company Index is approximately 1.67, which is at about 54.6% of its historical level over the past decade, suggesting room for growth compared to the 2015 bull market peak of 2.82 [2] Group 2 - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market has reached 3.97 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 26.9 billion yuan on August 18, reflecting a trend of increasing capital allocation towards ETFs [5][6] - Specific ETFs such as the Huabao Fund's brokerage ETF and the Guotai Fund's securities ETF saw significant net inflows of 11.43 billion yuan and 11.01 billion yuan, respectively, indicating strong investor interest [6][7] - Emerging sectors are gaining attention due to favorable policies and technological advantages, suggesting a strong medium-term investment appeal [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly ten-year high, with the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][3] - The securities company index has surged by 22.19% since the low point on June 23, reflecting strong investor confidence in the brokerage sector [1][3] Group 2: Fund Inflows - On August 18 alone, the brokerage sector attracted over 2.3 billion yuan in net inflows, with significant capital flowing into the Hong Kong Stock Connect non-bank index, totaling over 3.4 billion yuan in the past five days [1][5] - The total scale of stock ETFs in the market reached 3.97 trillion yuan as of August 18, with a net inflow of 2.69 billion yuan on that day, indicating a trend of increasing investments in ETFs [7] Group 3: ETF Performance - Specific ETFs saw substantial inflows, with the Huabao Fund's brokerage ETF receiving 1.143 billion yuan and the Guotai Fund's securities ETF attracting 1.101 billion yuan on August 18 [5][9] - The overall performance of ETFs indicates a strong interest from investors, with the top ten ETFs by net inflow showing significant capital movement towards sectors like finance and technology [9][10] Group 4: Sector Analysis - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of the CSI All Share Securities Company Index is approximately 1.67, which is at a historical percentile of about 54.6%, suggesting room for growth compared to the 2.82 PB during the 2015 bull market [3] - Various industry-specific ETFs, including those focused on technology and healthcare, also experienced notable inflows, reflecting investor optimism in these sectors [8][11]

Market Overview - The market experienced a high and then a pullback on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly 10-year high, and the North Star 50 hitting a historical peak. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index both surpassed their high points from October 8 of the previous year. By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.84% [1][2]. Sector Performance - Financial sectors, including brokerage and fintech stocks, saw significant gains, with companies like Zhina Compass and Tonghuashun reaching historical highs. Sectors such as liquid cooling servers, film and television, CPO, and rare earth permanent magnets led the gains, while coal, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors faced declines [2][3]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The brokerage sector continued its strong performance, with Longcheng Securities achieving four consecutive gains, and Huayin Securities and Xiangcai Shares rising over 6%. On August 15, the largest securities ETF in the market surged by 4.75%, with a trading volume of 5.239 billion yuan, both hitting new highs for the year [6][8]. - Recent positive developments in the brokerage sector include the release of mid-year reports, with four brokerages reporting net profit increases exceeding 25% year-on-year. Expectations for larger brokerages' mid-year performance are also optimistic, with projected net profit growth of 61.23% year-on-year [8][9]. - The approval of West Securities as a major shareholder of Guorong Securities and the ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage industry are contributing to market optimism. The brokerage sector's performance is seen as potentially entering a new phase of growth, with historical data indicating significant past gains [9][10]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current environment suggests that the brokerage industry's price-to-book (PB) ratio remains at historical lows, indicating strong potential for valuation recovery as market activity increases [10]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively strong position in the short term, driven by liquidity, with potential fluctuations as it attempts to break previous highs. The medium-term outlook remains positive due to underlying factors such as policy support and capital inflows [11][12]. - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on sectors with lower valuations, such as consumer electronics, autonomous driving, and AI software, as well as new consumption trends and thematic investments like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [12].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing volatility around the 3700-point level, which is considered a "no man's land" where profit-taking can lead to significant declines [1][4] - Historical comparisons show that previous bull markets have seen substantial pullbacks after reaching similar index levels, indicating potential for further fluctuations [3][4] - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly from previous peaks, with current expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the tightening seen in 2021 [7][9] Group 2 - Domestic savings have increased significantly, with the ratio of household savings to A-share market capitalization rising from 1.18 in January 2021 to 1.73 in July 2025, suggesting that there is still room for market growth [9] - Sector performance varies, with some industries like telecommunications and transportation showing strong gains, while others like food and beverage have underperformed compared to previous bull markets [12][13][15] Group 3 - Valuation metrics indicate that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.78, which is relatively high compared to historical averages, suggesting caution for investors [16][19] - The performance of major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext shows that while some sectors have seen growth, overall earnings have not kept pace with rising valuations, raising concerns about sustainability [22][24] Group 4 - Recent trading activity indicates a strong preference for technology and renewable energy sectors, with significant gains in stocks related to AI and solar energy, while traditional sectors like banking and consumer goods lag behind [43][50] - The market is characterized by a high degree of differentiation, making stock selection more challenging than in previous bull markets, with a recommendation for investors to consider broad-based indices for exposure [34][39]