证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 ETF 周报 上周光伏、军工 ETF 领涨，中证 1000ETF 净赎回居首 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 02 月 24 日至 2026 年 02 月 27 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 1.54%。宽基 ETF 中，中证 1000ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 4.30%，收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 4.14%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，光伏 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 3.89%，收益最 高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 368.67 亿元，总体规模增加 230.10 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中，上周上证 50ETF 净赎回最少，为 4.67 亿元；按板块来看， 大金融 ETF 净申购最多，为 20.57 亿元；按热点主题来看，证券 ETF 净申购最多，为 22.61 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费、大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、新 能车 ETF 的估值分位数相对 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 ETF 周报 上周光伏、军工 ETF 领涨，中证 1000ETF 净赎回居首 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2026 年 02 月 24 日至 2026 年 02 月 27 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度收益率中位数为 1.54%。宽基 ETF 中，中证 1000ETF 涨跌幅中位 数为 4.30%，收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 4.14%， 收益最高。按主题进行分类，光伏 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 3.89%，收益最 高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 368.67 亿元，总体规模增加 230.10 亿元。在 宽基 ETF 中，上周上证 50ETF 净赎回最少，为 4.67 亿元；按板块来看， 大金融 ETF 净申购最多，为 20.57 亿元；按热点主题来看，证券 ETF 净申购最多，为 22.61 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看， 消费、大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、新 能车 ETF 的估值分位数相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - On February 26, the A-share market experienced a high-level fluctuation phase after continuous gains, with a net outflow of over 23.5 billion yuan from stock ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment as some funds opted to exit the market [1][2]. Summary by Category Market Overview - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.54 trillion yuan on February 26, with a total of 1,344 stock ETFs amounting to 4.13 trillion yuan in total scale [2][6]. - The overall market saw a net outflow of 226.5 billion yuan, marking the second consecutive trading day of net outflows [2]. ETF Performance - On February 26, 80.73 million shares of stock ETFs were redeemed, leading to a net outflow of over 23.5 billion yuan, with 23 ETFs seeing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [2][3]. - The top three ETFs by net inflow were the Hang Seng Technology ETF (13.15 billion yuan), the Electric Grid Equipment ETF (9.24 billion yuan), and the Securities ETF (8.47 billion yuan) [4][6]. Sector Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw the highest net inflow of 25.07 billion yuan, while the CSI 500 Index experienced the largest net outflow of 60.08 billion yuan on the same day [3][5]. - From a five-day perspective, the Hang Seng Technology Index-related ETFs attracted over 13.2 billion yuan, and the China Internet 50 Index-related ETFs attracted over 3.7 billion yuan [3]. Fund Management Insights - Leading fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported significant inflows in their ETFs, with E Fund's China Internet ETF reaching a scale of 431.35 billion yuan and a net inflow of 4.79 billion yuan [6]. - Huaxia Fund's Electric Grid Equipment ETF and Hang Seng Technology Index ETF also saw substantial inflows, with net inflows of 9.24 billion yuan and 2.44 billion yuan, respectively [6].

除了恒生科技，当日净流入居前的还有：证券ETF、电网设备ETF、黄金ETF等。其中电网设备 ETF（159326.SZ）单日净流入超9亿元，近两日合计净流入接近20亿元，也是"HALO策略"的体现，景 气策略型资金在AI科技叙事动摇之际，共识转向：AI的尽头是"重资产"。 华夏基金投资者回报研究中心王波表示：在估值扩张行情中，"景气策略""动量策略""高共识资 产"具备基本面逻辑支持，有望持续占优。站在当前时点，三月重要会议政策预期较强，市场流动性持 续改善，对市场维持做多判断。围绕上述逻辑，科创半导体、电网设备"景气"领先，"动量"占优，是科 技行情共识方向；周期方面，工程机械、石化、自由现金流等，"景气"改善的同时， 市场对实物资 产"价值重估"逻辑也更加认可。 2月26日（周四），A股市场成交活跃，但指数4150点上方面临压力，对投资情绪有所压制。AI科 技投资方面，A股港股市场的焦点逐步转移到传统实物，外资投行提出HALO策略（Heavy Assets， Low Obsolescence）来重新定义AI时代下的资产价值，即重资产与低淘汰率，如电网、石化、有色等实 物资产。 但从ETF资金动向来看，科技 ...

2026年2月25日，Wind数据显示，A股三大指数今日集体上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨0.72%；深证成指涨1.29%；创业板指涨1.41%。沪深京三市成交额达到 24812亿，较昨日放量2628亿。 涨幅方面，稀土与稀有金属板块强势领涨，巴西ETF单日涨超7% | | | ETF涨幅 TOP10 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | | 涨幅(%) 基金管理人 | 投资类 | | 520870 | 巴西ETF易方达 | 7.26 | 易方达基金 | QDll股票型 | | 159715 | 稀土ETF易方达 | 6.25 | 易方达基金 | 被动指数型 | | 159713 | 稀土ETF | 6.12 | 富国産尖 | 被动指数型 | | 516780 | 稀土ETF | 6.08 | 华泰柏瑞基金 | 被动指数型 | | 216150 | 稀土ETF嘉实 | 6.07 | 嘉实基金 | 被动指数型 | | 159608 | 稀有金属ETF | 5.74 | 广发基金 | 被动指数型 | | 562800 | 稀有金属ETF | 5.68 ...

Group 1 - Global assets are experiencing significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with precious metals like gold and silver showing notable pullbacks after initial gains [1][19] - The market is focused on how to allocate assets after the turbulence, particularly regarding fixed income assets as a long-term core allocation [1][19] - The current political climate is shifting towards a "big fiscal" era, with abundant liquidity leading to asset bubbles, particularly in the U.S. stock market [19][21] Group 2 - The U.S. market is entering a bubble phase similar to 1999, with expectations for gold to reach new highs while the dollar index declines [2][19] - Key risks for 2026 include potential loss of Federal Reserve independence, aggressive monetary easing leading to inflation, and possible internal strife in the U.S. [2][19] - If risks arise outside the U.S., dollar assets may serve as a safe haven, similar to the situation in 1998 [2][19] Group 3 - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified asset allocation strategy for 2026, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, commodities, and bonds, with a focus on a "core + satellite" structure [4][21] - The core investment should be in the CSI A500 ETF, which is expected to outperform traditional indices, while satellite investments should include technology growth and cash flow/dividend assets [4][21] - The main theme for 2026 remains artificial intelligence, with a focus on sectors like communication and semiconductor ETFs [4][21] Group 4 - In equity investments, there is optimism for a shift from valuation recovery to profit improvement, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, new energy, and chemicals [8][24] - Fixed income investments are expected to maintain a positive stance, with a focus on credit strategies and potential trading opportunities as the market adjusts [8][24] - The credit bond market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, with a focus on short-term strategies and market sentiment [10][26] Group 5 - The economic environment remains under pressure, with weak consumer demand and a declining real estate market, leading to low inflation expectations [12][28] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for further rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions in 2026 [12][28] - Institutional behavior indicates a strong performance in equity markets, but challenges remain for public funds and banks in expanding their balance sheets [12][28]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a reversal with net inflows after several days of capital outflows, with total trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan on February 3 [1] - On February 3, nearly 10 billion yuan flowed into the stock ETF market, marking one of the few days of net inflow since January [1][5] - The top-performing ETFs included those tracking the CSI 500, CSI 300, and STAR Market 50 indices, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and photovoltaics saw significant outflows [1][5] Group 2 - As of February 3, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 4.15 trillion yuan, with trading volume for stock ETFs at 298.75 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 20 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The leading sectors on that day were new energy and non-ferrous metals, with four of the top ten ETFs by increase in price belonging to the new energy sector [2][3] - The worst-performing ETFs included those related to new economy, Hong Kong Stock Connect technology, brokerage, and banking, with declines around 1% to nearly 7% [3] Group 3 - On February 3, the net inflow for stock ETFs was approximately 97.52 billion yuan, with 56 ETFs seeing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [5][7] - The CSI 500 index led with a net inflow of 3.80 billion yuan, while the SGE Gold 9999 index saw a net outflow of 6.84 billion yuan [6] - Recent inflows into sector-specific indices included over 6.1 billion yuan into the semiconductor index and over 4.6 billion yuan into the STAR Market chip index [6] Group 4 - The top three ETFs by net inflow on February 3 were the CSI 500 ETF with 3.57 billion yuan, the Securities ETF with 1.12 billion yuan, and the A500 ETF with 973 million yuan [7] - Conversely, the ETFs with the highest net outflows included the Non-Ferrous Metals ETF and the Gold Stock ETF, with outflows of 4.18 billion yuan and 714 million yuan respectively [8] Group 5 - Major fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund saw significant inflows into their ETFs, with E Fund's total ETF scale reaching 652.35 billion yuan, an increase of 9.64 billion yuan [9] - Notable inflows for E Fund included 711 million yuan into the CSI 300 ETF and 528 million yuan into the China Concept Internet ETF [9] - Fund manager Huang Yue from Guotai Fund expressed optimism for a spring market rally in Q1 2026, focusing on sectors like securities, new energy, semiconductors, and consumer services [9]

Core Viewpoint - After several days of net capital outflow, the A-share market saw a reversal with significant capital inflow on February 3, 2026, as all three major indices closed higher, with a trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 3, the total scale of all stock ETFs reached 4.15 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 298.75 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 20 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - The top-performing sectors included new energy and non-ferrous metals, with four of the top ten ETFs by increase belonging to the new energy sector [2]. - The worst-performing ETFs included those related to brokerage and banking, with declines around 1% to nearly 7% [2]. Group 2: Capital Inflow and Outflow - On February 3, the net inflow of capital into stock ETFs was approximately 97.52 billion yuan, with 56 ETFs seeing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [4]. - The net inflow for the entire market was 14.9 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs leading the inflows at 112.49 billion yuan and 23.6 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The net inflow for the CSI 500 index was 38.01 billion yuan, while the SGE Gold 9999 index saw a net outflow of 68.46 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by net inflow were the CSI 500 ETF (35.66 billion yuan), the Securities ETF (11.17 billion yuan), and the A500 ETF (9.73 billion yuan) [5]. - The leading ETFs by trading volume included the CSI 500 ETF with 142.18 billion yuan, followed by the A500 ETF with over 100 billion yuan [2]. - A total of 26 ETFs experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with non-ferrous metals and photovoltaic industry ETFs being the most affected [5]. Group 4: Fund Management Insights - Major fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported significant net inflows into their ETFs, with E Fund's total ETF scale reaching 652.35 billion yuan, an increase of 96.4 billion yuan [7]. - Fund managers expressed optimism about the A-share market, anticipating a potential spring rally in Q1 2026, particularly in sectors like securities, new energy, semiconductors, and consumer services [7].

Market Overview - The stock indices showed mixed performance this week, with a total net outflow of 326.51 billion yuan from stock ETFs and cross-border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16 points, up 0.83% for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66 points, up 1.11% [1] ETF Performance - The broad-based index ETFs experienced significant net outflows, with the CSI 300-related ETFs seeing a net outflow of 237.3 billion yuan, while only the CSI 2000-related ETFs recorded a net inflow [4] - The ten largest broad-based index ETFs had a combined net outflow of 329.608 billion yuan, with the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF alone seeing a net outflow of 72.445 billion yuan [6] Sector Analysis - Sector-specific ETFs such as those related to power grid equipment and chemicals attracted significant inflows, while satellite and securities-related ETFs faced substantial sell-offs [1][9] - The power grid equipment ETF saw a net inflow of 7.826 billion yuan, and the chemical ETF attracted 5.699 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [9] Fund Flow Dynamics - A total of 29 ETFs had transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan this week, indicating robust trading activity [16] - There were 25 industry-themed ETFs that experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with the satellite ETF, securities ETF, and aquaculture ETF being the most affected [12] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" industrial guidelines, along with overseas liquidity easing and domestic policy support, will continue to provide support for the A-share market [8] - The power grid equipment sector is expected to maintain high prosperity due to increased domestic investment and overseas demand growth [14]

Group 1 - The core concept of ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is that it is a fund traded on exchanges, representing a basket of stocks, similar to buying and selling individual stocks [1] - The ETF market in China has grown rapidly since its inception in 2004, with projections indicating that by the end of 2025, the market size will exceed 60 trillion, experiencing significant growth milestones at 40 trillion, 50 trillion, and 60 trillion within a single year [1] - The potential bottleneck for ETF growth may occur when the market approaches 100 trillion, suggesting a possible slowdown in growth rate [1] Group 2 - There is a wide variety of ETF types available in the market, including broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 ETF and industry-specific ETFs such as securities ETF, communication ETF, and semiconductor equipment ETF [2] - Non-stock ETFs are also present, including gold ETFs, bond ETFs, and currency ETFs, as well as those that invest in overseas assets like Hong Kong technology ETFs and NASDAQ ETFs [2] - The ETF market enhances global investment opportunities, allowing for diversified asset allocation and potentially increasing investment success rates compared to investing in individual stocks [3]