今日上午，科创芯片ETF（588200）、有色金属ETF（512400）以及电网设备ETF（159326）交投继续保持活跃，半日成交金额均在10亿元以上。跨境ETF 方面，恒生科技ETF（513130）交易金额略有减少，半日成交金额为34.51亿元。 | | | 半日交投活跃行业、主题ETF一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅 (%) | 总金额(元) | | 588200 | 科创芯片ETF | 2.693 | -1.25 | 18.47亿 | | 512400 | 有色金属ETF | 2.364 | 1.5 | 13.55亿 | | 159326 | 电网设备ETF | 1.945 | –1.67 | 12.80亿 | | 159516 | 半导体设备ETF | 1.893 | -2.77 | 10.06亿 | | 588170 | 科创半导体ETF | 1.852 | -2.73 | 9.51亿 | | 159206 | 卫星ETF | 1.873 | 0.81 | 8.83亿 | | 515880 | 通信ETF | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound with mixed performance across the three major indices, driven by Nvidia's strong earnings, which boosted the computing power sector [1] - The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 2.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 756 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Nvidia's Impact - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded market expectations, dispelling concerns about an AI bubble and confirming the exponential growth in AI computing power demand [1][10] - The AI-focused ETFs, including the ChiNext AI ETF and the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF, saw significant price increases of 1.77% [1][7] Group 3: Sector Performance - Over 29.3 billion yuan of capital flowed into the electronics sector, with PCB stocks experiencing a strong surge, particularly Huadian Co., which topped the A-share capital inflow list [1] - The domestic computing chip leader, Haiguang Information, is expected to see a net profit growth of up to 82% in Q1 2026, highlighting the rising demand for domestic high-end chips amid the AI wave [1][15] Group 4: Military Industry - The military sector continued its strong upward trend, with the military ETF rising by 1.93%, marking five consecutive days of gains [2][4] - Factors contributing to this momentum include developments in commercial aerospace, large aircraft production, and low-altitude economy initiatives [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on four key areas: AI and related fields, emerging industries under the 14th Five-Year Plan, cyclical recovery sectors, and strategic resources [3] - The military ETF is highlighted as an efficient tool for investing in core military assets, covering various hot themes such as commercial aerospace and military information technology [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to investor interests and the importance of a robust investment framework as it transitions towards high-quality development in the public fund industry by 2025 [3][6]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Transformation - The public fund industry has experienced significant growth, driven by investor confidence and market resilience, with a focus on technological advancement and industrial upgrading [3]. - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the public fund industry, marking a shift towards prioritizing genuine investor returns and implementing long-term assessment mechanisms [3][6]. - The industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes active counter-cyclical investment strategies and the introduction of new floating fee structures [3]. Group 2: Research and Product Development - The company is committed to integrating research, product development, investment, sales, and service to create a value loop centered on client interests [4]. - In 2025, the research team is expected to conduct over 1,600 in-depth investigations to enhance understanding of industry changes and identify long-term growth trajectories driven by technological progress [4]. - The product strategy focuses on creating comprehensive solutions that align with industry opportunities and client needs, ensuring quality management throughout the product lifecycle [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Practices and Market Services - Investment practices are anchored in a "platform-based, integrated, multi-strategy" research system, which aims to provide sustainable returns across various asset classes [5]. - The company is enhancing its market services to build trust with investors, offering a comprehensive support system that encourages long-term investment perspectives [5][6]. - In 2025, the company reported returns of 116.4 billion yuan across its public fund products, with over 220 distributions throughout the year, showcasing its competitive position in the industry [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Commitment - The company is poised to play a crucial role in the capital market as a core resource allocation hub, contributing to the enhancement of investor satisfaction and support for the real economy [6][7]. - The commitment to serving national development goals and the modernization of the financial sector is emphasized, with a focus on supporting technological independence and economic upgrading [7]. - The company aims to uphold its foundational principle of being investor-centric while actively engaging in the broader national development agenda [7][8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market concluded the Year of the Snake with all major indices showing positive performance, with the ChiNext Index leading at a 58.73% increase [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 25.58% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 38.84% [1] - Daily trading volume in the A-share market has become active, with an average daily turnover of 1.89 trillion yuan, a nearly 70% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed resilience, with the first ETF focusing on the Hong Kong chip industry rising nearly 1% [1] - The "All Chip" Sci-Tech Chip ETF and the Sci-Tech Artificial Intelligence ETF both saw price increases of over 1% [1] - The military industry ETFs also performed well, with the Military ETF and General Aviation ETF rising by 0.47% and 0.43%, respectively [2][3] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Insights - China's semiconductor sales exceeded $200 billion for the first time, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 15% [6] - The global semiconductor market is expected to reach a record $791.7 billion by 2025, driven by strong demand for AI applications and data centers [6] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has a significant focus on semiconductor materials and equipment, with over 90% of its weight in core areas like integrated circuits and semiconductor equipment [6] Group 4: AI and Technology Developments - The AI sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with new models being launched and significant investments from tech giants [11] - The domestic AI industry is expected to see a surge in demand, supported by government initiatives and increasing application scenarios [11] - The Sci-Tech Artificial Intelligence ETF has a strong focus on domestic AI supply chains, with nearly half of its weight in semiconductor stocks [11] Group 5: Consumer Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector demonstrated resilience, with the Food and Beverage ETF showing strong performance despite market fluctuations [13] - The price of Moutai liquor has approached 1,800 yuan per bottle, reflecting strong demand as the Spring Festival approaches [15] - The food and beverage sector is considered a key area for investment, especially as valuations are at historical lows, making it an attractive entry point [16]

Market Performance - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.58 trillion yuan. The semiconductor sector saw significant declines, with various ETFs dropping over 5% [1][3]. Downward Factors Analysis - The decline in the semiconductor sector was influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions and market reactions. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75%, and the nomination of Warsh as the new Fed Chair raised market concerns due to his hawkish stance. This led to a pullback in the U.S. semiconductor sector, impacting A-shares [3]. - The overall market performance was weak, with a significant reduction in trading volume. The semiconductor sector had previously accumulated gains in early January, making it vulnerable to pressure in a declining market [3]. Future Outlook - There is strong demand for storage expansion, and the semiconductor equipment sector remains robust. ASML reported a record new order amount of 13.2 billion euros for Q4 2025, with 7.4 billion euros for EUV lithography machines. The backlog of orders at ASML extends to 2027, indicating strong growth potential in the storage sector [4]. - After recent corrections, the semiconductor equipment ETFs present an attractive investment opportunity. The high demand in the storage sector is expected to positively influence semiconductor equipment. The narrative of "storage expansion + advanced process domestic substitution" provides strong growth momentum [5]. - Concerns regarding the impact of H200 on domestic GPUs have largely subsided, and domestic GPU manufacturers are expected to gradually increase their shipment volumes, entering a phase of high growth. The Sci-Tech Innovation Chip ETF is also worth monitoring [5].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from January 26, 2026, to January 30, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest return with a median change of 1.13%. Among sector ETFs, the large financial sector ETF had the highest return with a median change of 0.06%. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor ETF had the highest return with a median change of 2.39% [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan. Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan [2][27][30]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All-Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [5][52][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, ChiNext, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had median changes of 1.13%, 0.09%, -0.10%, -0.62%, -2.54%, -2.57%, and -2.94% respectively. Commodity, bond, cross-border, and money market ETFs had median changes of 4.56%, 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [1][12]. - Among sector ETFs, the large financial, technology, consumer, and cyclical sector ETFs had median changes of 0.06%, -2.28%, -2.57%, and -3.61% respectively. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor, dividend, and AI ETFs had median changes of 2.39%, 1.78%, and 0.80% respectively, performing relatively strongly, while the military, new energy vehicle, and robot ETFs had median changes of -8.82%, -7.04%, and -5.65% respectively, performing relatively weakly [16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 3.1726 trillion yuan, 1.0544 trillion yuan, and 725.5 billion yuan respectively. Commodity and money market ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 346.9 billion yuan and 153.7 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs had larger scales of 610 billion yuan and 276.5 billion yuan respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, ChiNext, Shanghai 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively smaller scales [17]. - Among sector ETFs, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 551.3 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 351.7 billion yuan. The consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively smaller scales. Among popular thematic ETFs, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales as of last Friday [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. The money market ETF had a net subscription of 1.68 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 1.82 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 67.28 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 ETF had the most net redemption of 244.613 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 243.808 billion yuan [27]. - Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 315.50 billion yuan, while the large financial ETF had the least net subscriptions of 20.62 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 16.09 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 69.73 billion yuan, while the AI ETF had the most net redemptions of 25.26 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 16.69 billion yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 83.33%, 87.54%, 99.50%, 99.42%, 66.75%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 63.94%, 74.38%, 99.50%, 82.43%, 68.15%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF have been at the 90.26% and 81.02% quantiles respectively [33][35]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 91.75%, 23.35%, 24.01%, and 97.61% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 89.27%, 45.13%, 31.60%, and 95.38% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the consumer ETF decreased significantly [39]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of the photovoltaic, military, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 99.34%, 98.51%, and 97.61% respectively. The price-to-book ratio quantiles of the AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 96.78%, and 94.22% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the new energy vehicle ETF decreased significantly [42]. - Overall, among broad-based ETFs, the ChiNext and Shanghai 50 ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Among sector ETFs, the large financial and consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 56.364 billion yuan in the previous week to 55.044 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.237 billion shares in the previous week to 2.211 billion shares [45]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes from last Monday to Thursday, the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, and the CSI 1000 ETF and Shanghai 50 ETF had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [47][48][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, with a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - sectors such as scale index ETFs, thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - PineBridge Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs [52]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All - Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [54].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The market is currently in an upward trend, with the core observation being whether the profit-making effect is positive. The market trend line is near 6800 points, and the profit-making effect is at the zero value edge, suggesting the potential for a halt in the upward trend [5][8]. - The short-term outlook indicates continued outflows from broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI 300 ETF, which is exerting pressure on the index. A significant drop in non-ferrous metals has also dampened short-term risk appetite [7][8]. - The industry trend configuration model suggests waiting for reversal signals in the liquor and real estate sectors, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on rebound opportunities in commercial aerospace [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The WIND All A index is in an upward trend, with a significant distance of 6.77% between the short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages, indicating a continued upward trend [5][9]. - The market experienced a decline of 1.59% last week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) down 2.55% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) down 2.56%. The CSI 300 saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while the SSE 50 rose by 1.13% [2][7]. Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio of the WIND All A index is at the 90th percentile, indicating a high valuation level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, suggesting a moderate valuation level [9][11]. Positioning Recommendations - The report recommends a 70% allocation to absolute return products based on the WIND All A index, reflecting a cautious but optimistic stance on market conditions [9][10]. - The performance trend model highlights the importance of focusing on the computing power-related industry chain and suggests waiting for significant volume reductions in high-performing cyclical sectors such as industrial non-ferrous metals and chemicals [6][14].

证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 分析师：吴先兴 执业证书编号：S0740525110003 Email：wuxx02@zts.com.cn 量化择时周报：趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 分析师：王鹏飞 执业证书编号：S0740525060001 Email：wangpf@zts.com.cn 1、《量化择时周报：牛市格局仍在延 续，主题投资重回主线》2026-01-25 2、《沪深 300 增强策略本周超额收益 3.90%》2026-01-25 3、《净利润断层策略本周绝对收益 1.99%》2026-01-18 报告摘要 趋势指标进入边缘位置，由重仓位到重结构 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 上周周报（20260125）认为：尽管 ETF 份额的持续下降，对市场有短线压力，但在 每日近 3 万亿金额的成交下，预计影响也较为有限，市场上行趋势仍将延续。最终 WIND 全 A 在 ETF 份额持续下降的影响和周五周期股大幅回调的影响下，全周下跌 1.59%。市值维度上，上周代表小市值股票的中证 1000 下跌 2.55%，中盘股中证 500 指数下跌 2.56 ...

月度角度来看，成长含量较高的指数1月表现较佳，科创100、科创50、中证500在1月分别涨13.83%、12.29% 和12.12%。 蓝筹股含量较高的指数表现相对弱势，中证A50、上证50在1月分别微涨0.45%和1.17%。 | 序号 | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | 区间涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 000698.SH | 科创100 | 13.83 | | 2 | 000688.SH | 科创50 | 12.29 | | 3 | 000905.SH | 中证500 | 12.12 | | 4 | 000680.SH | 科创综指 | 11.97 | | 5 | 8841431.WI | 万得微盘股 | 10.71 | | 6 | 000852.SH | 中证1000 | 8.68 | | 7 | 932000.CSI | 中证2000 | 8.16 | | 8 | HSI.HI | 恒生指数 | 6.85 | | 9 | 399001.SZ | 深证成指 | 5.03 | | 10 | HSCEI.HI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 4.53 | | 11 | ...