Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of various ETFs, particularly in the technology and materials sectors, remains robust, with significant transaction volumes reported for both domestic and cross-border ETFs. Group 1: Domestic ETFs - The active trading of domestic ETFs includes the following: - Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) with a trading volume of 1.847 billion yuan and a price decrease of 1.25% [2] - Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400) showing a trading volume of 1.355 billion yuan and a price increase of 1.5% [2] - Power Grid Equipment ETF (159326) with a trading volume of 1.280 billion yuan and a price decrease of 1.67% [2] - Other notable ETFs include Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) with a trading volume of 1.006 billion yuan and a price decrease of 2.77% [2], and Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) with a trading volume of 0.951 billion yuan and a price decrease of 2.73% [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border ETFs - The cross-border ETF market shows significant activity, particularly: - Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) with a trading volume of 3.451 billion yuan and no price change [4] - Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with a trading volume of 2.749 billion yuan and a price increase of 0.15% [4] - Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) with a trading volume of 2.158 billion yuan and a price decrease of 1.06% [4]. Group 3: Rare Earth ETFs - Rare Earth ETFs are experiencing notable performance: - Rare Earth ETF (159713) increased by 2.7% with a trading volume of 0.173 billion yuan [6] - The ETF tracks the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index, which reflects a high concentration of companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, and trading [7]. - The index's major constituents include: - Northern Rare Earth (600111) with a weight of 14.90% [8] - Goldwind Technology (002202) with a weight of 7.08% [8] - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) with a weight of 6.81% [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound with mixed performance across the three major indices, driven by Nvidia's strong earnings, which boosted the computing power sector [1] - The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 2.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 756 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Nvidia's Impact - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded market expectations, dispelling concerns about an AI bubble and confirming the exponential growth in AI computing power demand [1][10] - The AI-focused ETFs, including the ChiNext AI ETF and the Sci-Tech Innovation AI ETF, saw significant price increases of 1.77% [1][7] Group 3: Sector Performance - Over 29.3 billion yuan of capital flowed into the electronics sector, with PCB stocks experiencing a strong surge, particularly Huadian Co., which topped the A-share capital inflow list [1] - The domestic computing chip leader, Haiguang Information, is expected to see a net profit growth of up to 82% in Q1 2026, highlighting the rising demand for domestic high-end chips amid the AI wave [1][15] Group 4: Military Industry - The military sector continued its strong upward trend, with the military ETF rising by 1.93%, marking five consecutive days of gains [2][4] - Factors contributing to this momentum include developments in commercial aerospace, large aircraft production, and low-altitude economy initiatives [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on four key areas: AI and related fields, emerging industries under the 14th Five-Year Plan, cyclical recovery sectors, and strategic resources [3] - The military ETF is highlighted as an efficient tool for investing in core military assets, covering various hot themes such as commercial aerospace and military information technology [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to investor interests and the importance of a robust investment framework as it transitions towards high-quality development in the public fund industry by 2025 [3][6]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Transformation - The public fund industry has experienced significant growth, driven by investor confidence and market resilience, with a focus on technological advancement and industrial upgrading [3]. - 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the public fund industry, marking a shift towards prioritizing genuine investor returns and implementing long-term assessment mechanisms [3][6]. - The industry is moving towards a model that emphasizes active counter-cyclical investment strategies and the introduction of new floating fee structures [3]. Group 2: Research and Product Development - The company is committed to integrating research, product development, investment, sales, and service to create a value loop centered on client interests [4]. - In 2025, the research team is expected to conduct over 1,600 in-depth investigations to enhance understanding of industry changes and identify long-term growth trajectories driven by technological progress [4]. - The product strategy focuses on creating comprehensive solutions that align with industry opportunities and client needs, ensuring quality management throughout the product lifecycle [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Practices and Market Services - Investment practices are anchored in a "platform-based, integrated, multi-strategy" research system, which aims to provide sustainable returns across various asset classes [5]. - The company is enhancing its market services to build trust with investors, offering a comprehensive support system that encourages long-term investment perspectives [5][6]. - In 2025, the company reported returns of 116.4 billion yuan across its public fund products, with over 220 distributions throughout the year, showcasing its competitive position in the industry [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Commitment - The company is poised to play a crucial role in the capital market as a core resource allocation hub, contributing to the enhancement of investor satisfaction and support for the real economy [6][7]. - The commitment to serving national development goals and the modernization of the financial sector is emphasized, with a focus on supporting technological independence and economic upgrading [7]. - The company aims to uphold its foundational principle of being investor-centric while actively engaging in the broader national development agenda [7][8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market concluded the Year of the Snake with all major indices showing positive performance, with the ChiNext Index leading at a 58.73% increase [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 25.58% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 38.84% [1] - Daily trading volume in the A-share market has become active, with an average daily turnover of 1.89 trillion yuan, a nearly 70% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector showed resilience, with the first ETF focusing on the Hong Kong chip industry rising nearly 1% [1] - The "All Chip" Sci-Tech Chip ETF and the Sci-Tech Artificial Intelligence ETF both saw price increases of over 1% [1] - The military industry ETFs also performed well, with the Military ETF and General Aviation ETF rising by 0.47% and 0.43%, respectively [2][3] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry Insights - China's semiconductor sales exceeded $200 billion for the first time, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 15% [6] - The global semiconductor market is expected to reach a record $791.7 billion by 2025, driven by strong demand for AI applications and data centers [6] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has a significant focus on semiconductor materials and equipment, with over 90% of its weight in core areas like integrated circuits and semiconductor equipment [6] Group 4: AI and Technology Developments - The AI sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with new models being launched and significant investments from tech giants [11] - The domestic AI industry is expected to see a surge in demand, supported by government initiatives and increasing application scenarios [11] - The Sci-Tech Artificial Intelligence ETF has a strong focus on domestic AI supply chains, with nearly half of its weight in semiconductor stocks [11] Group 5: Consumer Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector demonstrated resilience, with the Food and Beverage ETF showing strong performance despite market fluctuations [13] - The price of Moutai liquor has approached 1,800 yuan per bottle, reflecting strong demand as the Spring Festival approaches [15] - The food and beverage sector is considered a key area for investment, especially as valuations are at historical lows, making it an attractive entry point [16]

Market Performance - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.58 trillion yuan. The semiconductor sector saw significant declines, with various ETFs dropping over 5% [1][3]. Downward Factors Analysis - The decline in the semiconductor sector was influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions and market reactions. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75%, and the nomination of Warsh as the new Fed Chair raised market concerns due to his hawkish stance. This led to a pullback in the U.S. semiconductor sector, impacting A-shares [3]. - The overall market performance was weak, with a significant reduction in trading volume. The semiconductor sector had previously accumulated gains in early January, making it vulnerable to pressure in a declining market [3]. Future Outlook - There is strong demand for storage expansion, and the semiconductor equipment sector remains robust. ASML reported a record new order amount of 13.2 billion euros for Q4 2025, with 7.4 billion euros for EUV lithography machines. The backlog of orders at ASML extends to 2027, indicating strong growth potential in the storage sector [4]. - After recent corrections, the semiconductor equipment ETFs present an attractive investment opportunity. The high demand in the storage sector is expected to positively influence semiconductor equipment. The narrative of "storage expansion + advanced process domestic substitution" provides strong growth momentum [5]. - Concerns regarding the impact of H200 on domestic GPUs have largely subsided, and domestic GPU manufacturers are expected to gradually increase their shipment volumes, entering a phase of high growth. The Sci-Tech Innovation Chip ETF is also worth monitoring [5].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from January 26, 2026, to January 30, 2026), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest return with a median change of 1.13%. Among sector ETFs, the large financial sector ETF had the highest return with a median change of 0.06%. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor ETF had the highest return with a median change of 2.39% [1][12][16]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan. Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan [2][27][30]. - As of last Friday, the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed, non-monetary ETFs were Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All-Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [5][52][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was -1.20%. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, ChiNext, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Science and Technology Innovation Board ETFs had median changes of 1.13%, 0.09%, -0.10%, -0.62%, -2.54%, -2.57%, and -2.94% respectively. Commodity, bond, cross-border, and money market ETFs had median changes of 4.56%, 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [1][12]. - Among sector ETFs, the large financial, technology, consumer, and cyclical sector ETFs had median changes of 0.06%, -2.28%, -2.57%, and -3.61% respectively. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor, dividend, and AI ETFs had median changes of 2.39%, 1.78%, and 0.80% respectively, performing relatively strongly, while the military, new energy vehicle, and robot ETFs had median changes of -8.82%, -7.04%, and -5.65% respectively, performing relatively weakly [16]. ETF Scale Changes and Net Subscriptions/Redeemptions - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross-border, and bond ETFs were 3.1726 trillion yuan, 1.0544 trillion yuan, and 725.5 billion yuan respectively. Commodity and money market ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 346.9 billion yuan and 153.7 billion yuan respectively. Among broad-based ETFs, the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs had larger scales of 610 billion yuan and 276.5 billion yuan respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board, CSI 500, ChiNext, Shanghai 50, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively smaller scales [17]. - Among sector ETFs, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 551.3 billion yuan as of last Friday, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 351.7 billion yuan. The consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively smaller scales. Among popular thematic ETFs, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales as of last Friday [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 324.733 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 360.935 billion yuan. The money market ETF had a net subscription of 1.68 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 1.82 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF had the least net redemption of 9.35 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 67.28 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 ETF had the most net redemption of 244.613 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 243.808 billion yuan [27]. - Among sector ETFs, the cyclical ETF had the most net subscriptions of 386.15 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 315.50 billion yuan, while the large financial ETF had the least net subscriptions of 20.62 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 16.09 billion yuan. Among thematic ETFs, the chip ETF had the most net subscriptions of 111.56 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 69.73 billion yuan, while the AI ETF had the most net redemptions of 25.26 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 16.69 billion yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 83.33%, 87.54%, 99.50%, 99.42%, 66.75%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 63.94%, 74.38%, 99.50%, 82.43%, 68.15%, and 97.23% quantiles respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios of the Science and Technology Innovation Board ETF have been at the 90.26% and 81.02% quantiles respectively [33][35]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratios of the cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 91.75%, 23.35%, 24.01%, and 97.61% quantiles respectively, and the price-to-book ratios were at the 89.27%, 45.13%, 31.60%, and 95.38% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the consumer ETF decreased significantly [39]. - As of last Friday, the price-to-earnings ratio quantiles of the photovoltaic, military, and chip ETFs were relatively high, at 99.34%, 98.51%, and 97.61% respectively. The price-to-book ratio quantiles of the AI, robot, and dividend ETFs were relatively high, at 100.00%, 96.78%, and 94.22% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the new energy vehicle ETF decreased significantly [42]. - Overall, among broad-based ETFs, the ChiNext and Shanghai 50 ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Among sector ETFs, the large financial and consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles. Among thematic ETFs, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - Overall, the margin trading balance and short selling volume of equity ETFs have both increased in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs decreased from 56.364 billion yuan in the previous week to 55.044 billion yuan, and the short selling volume decreased from 2.237 billion shares in the previous week to 2.211 billion shares [45]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short selling volumes from last Monday to Thursday, the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, and the CSI 1000 ETF and Shanghai 50 ETF had relatively high average daily short selling volumes [47][48][51]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non-monetary ETFs, with a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - sectors such as scale index ETFs, thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - PineBridge Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and thematic, style, and strategy index ETFs [52]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, four ETFs, namely the E Fund CSI All - Share Dividend Quality ETF, GF Hang Seng Biotech ETF, Bosera CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Thematic ETF, and E Fund CSI Battery Thematic ETF, will be issued [54].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The market is currently in an upward trend, with the core observation being whether the profit-making effect is positive. The market trend line is near 6800 points, and the profit-making effect is at the zero value edge, suggesting the potential for a halt in the upward trend [5][8]. - The short-term outlook indicates continued outflows from broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI 300 ETF, which is exerting pressure on the index. A significant drop in non-ferrous metals has also dampened short-term risk appetite [7][8]. - The industry trend configuration model suggests waiting for reversal signals in the liquor and real estate sectors, while the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on rebound opportunities in commercial aerospace [6][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The WIND All A index is in an upward trend, with a significant distance of 6.77% between the short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages, indicating a continued upward trend [5][9]. - The market experienced a decline of 1.59% last week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) down 2.55% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) down 2.56%. The CSI 300 saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while the SSE 50 rose by 1.13% [2][7]. Valuation Metrics - The PE ratio of the WIND All A index is at the 90th percentile, indicating a high valuation level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, suggesting a moderate valuation level [9][11]. Positioning Recommendations - The report recommends a 70% allocation to absolute return products based on the WIND All A index, reflecting a cautious but optimistic stance on market conditions [9][10]. - The performance trend model highlights the importance of focusing on the computing power-related industry chain and suggests waiting for significant volume reductions in high-performing cyclical sectors such as industrial non-ferrous metals and chemicals [6][14].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Timing System Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term and long-term moving averages of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend. A significant positive distance indicates an upward trend, while a negative distance suggests a downward trend [2][7][13] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index 2. Calculate the distance between the two moving averages: $ Distance = \frac{Short\text{-}term\ MA - Long\text{-}term\ MA}{Long\text{-}term\ MA} $ Where: - Short-term MA = 20-day moving average - Long-term MA = 120-day moving average 3. If the absolute value of the distance exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in a trend (upward or downward depending on the sign of the distance) [2][7][13] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market trends and provides a clear signal for timing decisions. However, it may be sensitive to short-term market fluctuations [2][7][13] 2. Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industry allocation opportunities based on medium-term reversal expectations and performance trends [6][8][14] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Monitor industries with potential for medium-term reversal, such as real estate and liquor, and wait for reversal signals 2. Use the "TWO BETA" framework to recommend high-growth sectors like technology and commercial aerospace 3. Focus on performance trends in industries with high growth potential, such as computing power-related industries and upstream cyclical sectors like industrial metals and chemicals [6][8][14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a structured approach to industry allocation, balancing medium-term reversal opportunities with high-growth sectors. However, its reliance on reversal signals may delay entry into emerging trends [6][8][14] 3. Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the optimal equity allocation for absolute return products based on valuation and market trends [9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Assess the valuation of the WIND All A Index using PE and PB ratios 2. Combine valuation levels with short-term trend signals to recommend equity allocation levels 3. Current recommendation: 70% equity allocation for absolute return products, as the WIND All A Index PE is at the 90th percentile (high level) and PB is at the 50th percentile (medium level) [9] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to position management, balancing valuation and trend considerations. However, it may not fully account for sudden market shocks [9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Timing System Signal - Distance between 20-day and 120-day moving averages: 6.77% (absolute value significantly greater than 3%, indicating an upward trend) [2][7][13] 2. Industry Trend Allocation Model - No specific numerical backtesting results provided in the report [6][8][14] 3. Position Management Model - WIND All A Index PE: 90th percentile (high level) - WIND All A Index PB: 50th percentile (medium level) - Recommended equity allocation: 70% [9] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Moving Average Distance Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to capture market trends [2][7][13] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define short-term (20-day) and long-term (120-day) moving averages 2. Calculate the distance using the formula: $ Distance = \frac{Short\text{-}term\ MA - Long\text{-}term\ MA}{Long\text{-}term\ MA} $ 3. Use the absolute value of the distance to determine the trend strength [2][7][13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is simple and intuitive, effectively capturing market trends. However, it may lag during rapid market reversals [2][7][13] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Moving Average Distance Factor - Distance: 6.77% (indicating a strong upward trend) [2][7][13]

Core Viewpoint - The last trading day of January saw a significant market drop, primarily driven by the sharp decline in the metals sector, leading to the largest single-day drop in the index since 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2% at one point before closing down 0.96% [1] Market Performance - In January, growth-oriented indices performed well, with the Sci-Tech 100, Sci-Tech 50, and CSI 500 rising by 13.83%, 12.29%, and 12.12% respectively [1][3] - Blue-chip indices showed relatively weaker performance, with the CSI A50 and Shanghai 50 increasing by only 0.45% and 1.17% respectively [1][4] ETF Performance - The top ten core ETFs in January recorded a 6.51% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.86 percentage points [6] - The metals ETF was the best performer, rising by 21.38% in January, with significant net inflows of 172.45 billion yuan [7] - The chip ETF and chemical ETF also performed well, increasing by 18.06% and 11.41% respectively [6] Metals Sector Insights - The metals sector experienced a comprehensive surge, with precious metals reaching historical highs and industrial metals also seeing significant price increases [7] - Key factors driving this performance include supply constraints, demand from AI and renewable energy sectors, geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand, macro liquidity easing, and sustained central bank gold purchases [8] Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector showed strong performance in January, with the chemical ETF rising by 11% [9] - The sector's growth is attributed to a combination of supply-side adjustments, demand shifts, and macroeconomic conditions, indicating a transition to a new cycle of value reassessment [10] - Policies aimed at curbing excessive capacity expansion and promoting high-quality growth are expected to support the sector's recovery [10]