笔者认为，美联储降息预期修正对市场的影响有望在近期告一段落。美国劳工统计局（BLS）已取消发布2025年10月非农就业报告，而是把相关的 就业数据纳入11月报告，但是11月非农就业报告将在12月16日发布（美联储12月议息会议之后），这就意味着11月26日公布的10月PCE数据将是美 联储12月议息会议举行前发布的重磅数据。该数据公布后，市场对美联储12月降息的预期或更清晰，有利于减少当前的市场分歧。如果10月美国 PCE表现相对温和，美联储12月降息的预期回升，美元指数可能出现回落，市场风险偏好将迎来短期修复。 近期A股市场出现明显调整，主要原因有三个：一是虽然9—10月国内经济数据走低，但完成全年增长目标的压力不大，年内降息预期明显回落； 二是美元指数因美联储降息预期摇摆而走强，拖累港股表现并间接影响A股市场的风险偏好；三是临近年底，资金面存在"落袋为安"的压力，融资 盘流入速度明显放缓。 图为消费复苏力度较弱 图为投资增长压力较大 10月部分经济数据延续走弱态势。从生产端看，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%，略低于市场预期。从需求端看，消费方面，10月社会消费 品零售总额同比下行0.1个百分点，至 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective rise in the three major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 27, the three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a significant upward trend, rising over 1% at one point [1] - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.79%, reaching 3981.71 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.77% and 0.91%, closing at 13391.19 points and 3200.56 points respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective decline across major indices on October 14, with the ChiNext index dropping over 4% at one point, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closed down by 0.62%, 2.54%, and 3.99% respectively, finishing at 3865.23 points, 12895.11 points, and 2955.98 points [1] - The STAR 50 Index also saw a decline, closing down 4.26% at 1410.3 points [1] Sector Performance - Sectors that performed well included cultivated diamonds, insurance, and gas, while sectors that faced declines included high-bandwidth memory, electronic chemicals, and energy metals [1] Individual Stock Performance - Out of the A-share market, 1734 stocks gained, with 45 hitting the daily limit up, while 3554 stocks declined, with 8 hitting the daily limit down [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume for the Shanghai Stock Exchange was approximately 1.21 trillion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had a trading volume of about 1.37 trillion yuan, leading to a total trading volume of around 2.58 trillion yuan across both exchanges [1]

Core Points - A-shares market indices opened higher collectively on October 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 3900 points during trading [1] - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index recorded gains of 0.6%, 1.05%, and 1.11% respectively, closing at 3906.08 points, 13668.73 points, and 3274.11 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on September 23, with all three major indices falling after a high opening, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell over 1% during the session, dropping below the 3,800-point mark [1] - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index recorded declines of 1.1%, 1.18%, and 0.76% respectively, closing at 3,786.35 points, 13,002.37 points, and 3,084.18 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed strong performance on September 5, with significant gains across major indices, particularly the ChiNext Index which rose over 5% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index recorded gains of 0.94%, 3.02%, and 5.12% respectively [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index returned to the 3800-point level, closing at 3801.4 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12484.58 points, while the ChiNext Index reached 2918.45 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points, marking a near 10-year high, driven by increased trading volume and active participation from retail investors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has increased by over 7% year-to-date, achieving a near 10-year high [2]. - Daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has consistently exceeded 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The number of new A-share accounts has risen significantly, with over 14 million new accounts opened this year, reflecting a 36.88% year-on-year increase [3]. Group 2: Retail Investor Activity - Retail investors have been a major source of liquidity, with small orders (below 50,000 yuan) continuing to net buy since the end of last year, with a 31% increase in net buying in August compared to July [2][3]. - In July, new A-share accounts reached 1.9636 million, a 20% increase from June [3]. Group 3: Margin Trading - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time since July 2015, reaching 21,175.10 billion yuan on August 19, with a notable increase in financing balance [4]. - The financing buy ratio remains around 11%, indicating a healthy level of leverage in the market [4]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Private equity funds have been increasing their positions, with the stock private equity fund position index rising to 74.86% as of August 15, indicating a strong willingness to increase exposure [5]. - The proportion of fully invested private equity funds has significantly increased to 61.97% [5]. Group 5: Public Fund Activity - Public funds have shown limited willingness to increase positions, with a decrease in large institutional net inflows since July [6]. - The asset net value of actively managed equity public funds has dropped to 3.4 trillion yuan, the lowest in 20 quarters [6]. Group 6: Foreign Investment - Foreign capital participation in the A-share market has been increasing, with a net inflow of 20 billion yuan from overseas funds in July [7]. - The average daily trading volume of northbound funds reached 202.4 billion yuan in July, a 36.3% increase from June [7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant rise on August 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating strong investor sentiment and market performance [1]. Group 1 - The three major A-share indices opened higher and continued to rise throughout the day [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by over 1%, peaking at 3738 points [1]. - The closing gains for the indices were as follows: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up 2%, and ChiNext Index up 3.29% [1].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a collective rise in the three major indices, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 3% during intraday trading [1] Group 1 - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index recorded gains of 0.52%, 1.54%, and 3.01% respectively [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3684.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 11526.62 points, and the ChiNext Index at 2481.82 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rise in the three major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high since December 14, 2021, indicating positive market momentum [1] Group 1 - The three major stock indices opened higher on August 13, with significant upward movement observed shortly after the market opened [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index hit a peak of 3680.47 points, surpassing the previous high of 3674.4 points recorded on October 8, 2024 [1] - As of the report, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index recorded gains of 0.34%, 0.66%, and 1.15% respectively, closing at 3678.31 points, 11426.57 points, and 2437.12 points [1]