本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月25日开源证券："科技为先"是本轮牛市主线，2026年重视盈利等因子】12月25日，开源证券指 出，"科技为先"是贯穿本轮牛市最强主线，具备三大中长期占优条件，即相对盈利优势、海外映射、全 球半导体周期共振上行。 "盈利修复"慢牛的顺周期机会重点在于PPI，两大指标为PPI的边际修复提供 领先信号。 红利风格在2026年的表现会优于2025年，市场由估值牛到慢牛的演变，也是由行业Beta投 资转向因子投资的演变。 2026年要重视因子，业绩期有效性最强的盈利因子包括盈利增速的边际变 化、盈利增速、营收增速；从年度有效性看，营收增速、盈利增速、ROE、ROIC是盈利因子中最有效 的。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 hexun.con 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 开源证券指出，"科技为先"是贯穿本轮牛市最强主线，具备三大中长期占优的条件：（1）相对盈利优 势；（2）海外映射；（3）全球半导体周期共振上行。"盈利修复"慢牛的顺周期机会重点在于PPI。两 大指标为PPI的边际修复提供领先信号。红利风格在2026年的表现会优于2025年。由估值牛到慢牛的演 变，也是由行业Beta投资转向因子投资的演变。2026年要重视的因子：业绩期有效性最强的盈利因子： 盈利增速的边际变化（△g）、盈利增速、营收增速；从年度有效性来看，营收增速、盈利增速、 ROE、ROIC是盈利因子中最有效的。 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry exhibits a typical "bull long, bear short" characteristic, with an average mid-cycle of 4-5 years, indicating that investors should focus on performance realization and valuation switching windows [1] - "Technology first" is the main theme of the current bull market, with the electronic semiconductor sector possessing three long-term advantages: relative profitability, overseas mapping, and global cycle resonance [1] Group 2 - The Chip ETF (512760) tracks the China Semiconductor Chip Index (990001), which selects listed companies involved in semiconductor chip materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the semiconductor chip industry [1]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, emphasizing a "technology first" strategy supported by dual drivers: technology leadership and PPI trading [2][11][40] - Current market characteristics highlight a strong focus on technology, with funds diversifying from a few high-performing sectors to a broader range of sub-themes within technology, enhancing the belief in "technology first" [2][11][40] - For investors seeking lower-priced alternatives to previously high-performing sectors like optical modules and innovative drugs, the report suggests focusing on gaming, media, internet, Huawei's supply chain, and battery sectors [2][11][40] Group 2 - The report identifies a calendar effect where the market typically experiences "pre-holiday sluggishness and post-holiday enthusiasm," with specific sectors like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and agriculture expected to outperform in October [3][17][25] - Historical data indicates that the probability of market leadership switching or crossing over around the holiday is similar, with technology sectors more likely to maintain their leadership [4][35][36] - The report outlines a "4+1" industry allocation strategy, recommending technology growth, self-sufficiency, military industry, cyclical sectors benefiting from PPI improvements, and stable dividend stocks [5][44][45] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current technology leadership is supported by three long-term factors: relative profitability of technology sectors, overseas market influences, and a global semiconductor cycle that is trending upward [4][40] - The report highlights that the market's main themes have shifted over the years, with technology sectors like fintech and TMT being more resilient during holiday periods [35][36][39] - Specific sectors such as AI hardware, semiconductors, and robotics are recommended for investment, alongside cyclical sectors like metals and chemicals that may benefit from PPI improvements [5][44][45]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a positive market outlook with a "dual-driven" strategy, highlighting the importance of technology and the recovery of PPI as key growth drivers [1][10][11] - The A-share market is characterized by significant "incremental market" features, with increased trading volume and active capital flow, indicating a robust market environment [1][14][16] - The report identifies liquid cooling as a promising sector, expected to exhibit strong growth and favorable risk-reward characteristics, positioning it as the next significant opportunity after optical modules and PCBs [1][10][12] Group 2 - The report analyzes the current enthusiasm in popular sectors, noting that financial technology and ground weaponry are relatively crowded, while AI computing chains remain less crowded [2][18][19] - From a valuation perspective, sectors such as AI applications, robotics, aerospace equipment, PCBs, and photolithography machines are identified as having relatively high valuations, while insurance, smart driving, non-ferrous metals, liquor, and photovoltaics are seen as undervalued [2][23][25][26] Group 3 - The report outlines the current industry outlook, indicating that electronics and basic chemicals are entering a favorable phase, while sectors like comprehensive and steel are exiting [3][30][31] - Specific secondary industries expected to perform well include apparel and home textiles, consumer electronics, chemical products, and non-liquor sectors [3][30][31] Group 4 - The report provides configuration recommendations focusing on technology, military, anti-involution, PPI recovery, and stable dividends, suggesting a diversified approach to investment [4][32][33] - Key sectors for investment include liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies, alongside cyclical sectors benefiting from PPI improvements [4][33]