1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "volatile", and for treasury bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market had a volatile performance on January 15, 2026, with the overall market surging and then falling back, and the three major indexes showing mixed results. The trading volume of the whole market was close to 4 trillion, hitting a new high. The index increase at the beginning of 2026 was mainly driven by global technological development, and geopolitical tensions also made rare metals popular. The stock index is expected to be volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The short - term reasonable and sufficient liquidity is the biggest support for the bond market, but factors such as economic stability, rising inflation, and cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts restrict the bond market. The bond market is expected to remain in a range - bound pattern in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - The market had a volatile performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.82%. The rise was driven by technological development and geopolitical factors. The short - term trend is volatile, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Treasury Bond Futures - The 30 - year main contract was down 0.04%, the 10 - year main contract was up 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract was up 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract was flat. The central bank carried out 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, with a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be range - bound in the short term [1][2] 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH decreased by 0.75% from 3,137.6 to 3,114.0; IF decreased by 0.39% from 4,758.6 to 4,740.0; IC increased by 0.82% from 8,131.2 to 8,197.8; IM decreased by 0.05% from 8,160.4 to 8,156.0 [3] - The Shanghai 50 Index decreased by 0.67% from 3,132.9 to 3,112.1; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.40% from 4,761.0 to 4,741.9; the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.04% from 8,143.3 to 8,227.7; the CSI 1000 Index increased by 0.66% from 8,203.1 to 8,257.2 [3] Treasury Bond Futures - TS remained flat at 102.33; TF increased by 0.03% from 105.63 to 105.66; T increased by 0.07% from 107.85 to 107.93; TL decreased by 0.07% from 111.35 to 111.27 [3] 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Science and Technology will strengthen financial services for major national scientific and technological tasks and technology - based small and medium - sized enterprises in 2026, and play a role in the science - finance coordination mechanism [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts [5][6][7][8][9][10] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][21] Exchange Rates - The report displays the trends of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro against the Chinese yuan, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rates [22][23][24][25][27][29]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.08% and the ChiNext Index up 0.1% [1] - Sectors such as commercial aerospace, Hainan free trade, and real estate saw significant gains, while lithium mining, precious metals, and nuclear fusion sectors experienced declines [1] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities anticipates a promising spring market, emphasizing short-term defensive strategies and a focus on policy benefits and industry prosperity for 2026 [1] - The firm expects structural opportunities to arise from the resonance of policy guidance and industry conditions, suggesting that the upcoming spring rally is worth looking forward to [1] New Market Narratives - Huaxi Securities notes that the current market rally may not be a fleeting surge, as the market's height will depend on the acceptance of new narratives [2] - Historical context is provided, indicating that new narratives emerged at the end of 2014 and 2020, leading to significant market shifts [2] - The firm highlights that while some new momentum is developing in sectors like consumer electronics and finance, the market is still largely engaged in older narratives, potentially delaying the discovery of new opportunities [2] Technology Sector Outlook - Dongfang Securities predicts that the market will continue to rebound towards the end of the year, with technology themes remaining the primary investment focus for the upcoming year [3] - The firm identifies three leading sectors: aerospace concepts, computing hardware, and the semiconductor industry chain, all of which are strong representatives of the technology sector [3] - The recent strong performance of aerospace themes has attracted significant capital, reinforcing the expectation that technology will dominate the investment landscape in the coming year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple listed companies are actively announcing cash dividend plans, enhancing investor sentiment and interest in dividend-related assets [1][5][6] Group 1: Company Dividend Plans - Wens Foodstuff Group plans to distribute 3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.994 billion yuan, based on a total share count of 6.646 billion shares as of September 30, 2025 [1][3] - Other companies, including Sanke Tree, Yanjing Beer, and Zhongrui Co., have also announced dividend plans, with a total of 13 companies proposing to distribute 3.338 billion yuan [1][3] - Sanke Tree intends to distribute 5 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 369 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 81.22% year-on-year [3] - Yanjing Beer plans to distribute 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 282 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 37.45% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The active cash dividend announcements are expected to enhance investor confidence and interest in dividend-related assets, particularly in a market characterized by high volatility [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the dividend sector may serve as a safe haven for funds, especially as risk appetite diminishes due to external disturbances [4][5] - Investment strategies may shift towards a "barbell" approach, maintaining positions in growth sectors while selectively investing in dividend stocks to enhance portfolio certainty [6]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth for the first three quarters is 5.2%, indicating low urgency for policy intervention[1] - The GDP growth rate for Q3 is 4.8%, a slowdown from 5.2% in Q2[1] - Q4 growth is projected at 4.5-4.6%, sufficient to meet the annual target of 5%[1] Price and Demand Indicators - The nominal GDP growth for Q3 is 3.73%, down 0.21 percentage points from Q2's 3.94%[2] - The GDP deflator index shows a year-on-year rebound of approximately 0.2 percentage points to -1.0%, remaining negative for ten consecutive quarters[2] - Weighted year-on-year growth for industrial and service sectors in September rebounded by 0.5 percentage points to 5.9%[2] Retail and Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in September is 3.0%, the lowest this year, with a slowdown attributed to last year's high base effects[3] - Per capita consumption expenditure in Q3 increased by 3.4%, down 1.8 percentage points from Q2[3] - The urban consumption rate is 63.4%, slightly lower than 2019, while the rural consumption rate is 84.6%, higher than 2019[4] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment from January to September decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative growth since October 2020[5] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a reduced decline of 1.2 percentage points to -4.6% in September[5] - Real estate sales in September showed a year-on-year decline of 10.5% in area and 11.8% in value, but the decline in sales value narrowed by 2.2 percentage points[5] Market Outlook - The necessity for policy tightening is reduced as the annual growth target of 5% is likely to be met[6] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with production indicators growing at 5.7% while demand indicators show a decline of -0.6%[8] - The bond market may experience upward movement as risk appetite stabilizes, with potential monetary easing expected in 2026[8]

Group 1 - The computing hardware and solid-state battery sectors experienced a strong increase today, while the military and software sectors showed localized recovery [1] - The STAR Market Growth Index rose by 1.9%, the STAR 100 Index increased by 0.9%, the STAR Comprehensive Index went up by 0.9%, and the STAR 50 Index gained 0.4% by the end of trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant shift in style, with technology stocks undergoing substantial adjustments while dividend sectors such as banking, insurance, and coal saw a rebound [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.62% at 3865.23 points, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index fell 4.26% to 1410.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.54% to 12895.11 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 3.99% to 2955.98 points [1]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.60 trillion yuan, an increase of 222.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Analysis - The dividend sector was notably active, with all stocks in banking, insurance, and coal sectors rising. Key individual stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Daqin Railway, and others saw significant gains [2]. - The semiconductor sector faced a sharp decline, with stocks like ChipSource Micro and Yandong Micro hitting the daily limit down or dropping over 10% [2]. - International gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, leading to a sell-off in resource stocks, with companies like Tengyuan Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt seeing declines of over 10% [2]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Discussions around style switching in the A-share market have intensified, with various brokerages analyzing the potential for a shift in market focus towards large financials, cyclical stocks, and dividend-paying sectors [3]. - Research from Zheshang Securities indicates a notable rise in large financials and cyclical sectors, suggesting a possible market "gear shift" [3]. - According to Dongfang Caifu Securities, historically, sectors that performed well in the first three quarters often struggle to maintain their performance in the fourth quarter, indicating a potential for profit-taking [3]. - Guotai Junan Securities highlights that during market fluctuations, previously strong sectors tend to underperform, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors may become the main focus if liquidity drives the market [3].