证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 反内卷+旺季双催化，板块迎布局时点 [Table_Title2] 建筑材料 [Table_Summary] ►本周受益标的：（1）行业"反内卷"+旺季来临，水泥行业 自律加速，推荐华新水泥、海螺水泥等，上峰水泥等受益；防 水顺应倡议产品提价，推荐东方雨虹、科顺股份等；光伏玻璃 行业底部提价，推荐旗滨集团，福莱特、信义光能等受益； （2）中报陆续发布，推荐业绩超预期，个股α强的三棵树，推 荐估值低位且具备高分红的伟星新材、兔宝宝等；（3）新疆自 治区成立 70 周年+雅下水电站重大工程有序推进，推荐重点工 程中岩大地；区域民爆需求高景气，行业供给有望再集中，广 东宏大、雪峰科技、高争民爆、国泰集团等受益；（4）坚定 推荐松井股份，电芯绝缘 UV 喷墨打印全球首创，叠加车身漆 稳步推进；推荐麦加芯彩，风电涂料高增，船舶涂料、海工涂 料取证加速未来有望持续国产替代。 ►行业反内卷水泥价格暂稳，光伏玻璃底部提价，特种电子布 持续高景气。（1）水泥：本周全国水泥市场价格 364.15 元/ 吨，整体趋稳， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in operations between the two leading companies, Nippon Paint China and Three Trees, as the market landscape is being reshaped [6][10] - Nippon Paint China's sales revenue for Q2 2025 was 117.7 billion JPY, equivalent to 5.8 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decline of 14%. However, operating profit was 18.5 billion JPY, approximately 910 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 3% [2][6] - The report indicates that Nippon Paint's architectural coatings revenue faced significant pressure, while automotive coatings experienced growth [10] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Nippon Paint's Q2 sales revenue was approximately 5.8 billion RMB, down 14% year-on-year, with architectural coatings revenue around 4.8 billion RMB, down 18%. In contrast, automotive coatings revenue grew by 19% year-on-year [10][6] - Over the past five quarters, Nippon Paint's architectural decorative coatings revenue growth rates were 6%, 2%, 5%, 3%, and -18%, while Three Trees' wall coatings revenue growth rates were 2%, -6%, -8%, 7%, and 4% [10] Profitability - Nippon Paint's Q2 operating profit margin was 14.0%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price increases and a decrease in raw material costs. However, the margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10] - Three Trees showed a more significant improvement in profitability, with a Q2 operating profit margin of approximately 11.5%, up 7.6 percentage points year-on-year and 5.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10] Growth Targets - Nippon Paint has revised its growth targets for 2025, lowering the actual revenue growth target from 5-10% to 0-5%. The retail segment target was adjusted from 10% to 0-5%, while the engineering segment target was revised from 5% to a decline of 10-15% [10] - Conversely, the revenue target for automotive coatings was raised from 10% to 20% growth [10] Strategic Recommendations - The report continues to recommend Three Trees as a leading player, noting its revenue and profitability growth against the trend, attributed to its strategic adaptability and new business models [10]

Core Insights - Sherwin-Williams ranks first in the global decorative paint market for the eighth consecutive year, with a sales revenue of $13 billion and a global market share of 13.27% [1][11][21] - The top ten brands in the ranking collectively generated $39.979 billion in revenue, accounting for 40.79% of the global architectural paint market [1][2] - The ranking is based on the sales revenue of brands in the architectural decorative paint business for 2024, with a minimum entry threshold of $286 million [1][2] Company Overview - Sherwin-Williams, established in 1866, is one of the oldest paint suppliers globally, serving various sectors including professional, industrial, commercial, and retail customers [5][12] - The company operates three main business segments: Paint Stores Group, Consumer Brands Group, and Performance Coatings Group, with a presence in over 120 countries [5][12] - As of the end of 2024, Sherwin-Williams employed 63,890 people, with 80.84% of its revenue generated in North America [5][12] Financial Performance - Sherwin-Williams' sales revenue increased from $11.339 billion in 2015 to $23.1 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.85% over the past decade [6][11] - Net profit rose from $1.054 billion in 2015 to $2.681 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 15.18% [6][11] - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of $23.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit of $2.681 billion, up 12.25% from the previous year [6][11] Market Position - Sherwin-Williams' architectural paint sales revenue is projected to be approximately $13 billion in 2024, with an estimated market share in the U.S. architectural paint industry rising to around 55% [10][11] - The company has maintained a strong market position, with its share in the U.S. architectural paint market increasing from 26.3% in 2000 to about 53% in 2023 [10][11] Strategic Initiatives - Sherwin-Williams plans to acquire BASF's Brazilian architectural paint business for $1.15 billion, which will enhance its footprint in South America [11][12] - The company has a strong focus on innovation, with over 2,300 R&D personnel and 2,300 active patents, investing over $750 million in a new global headquarters and R&D center [23][25] - The company has a history of strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of Valspar, which helped it surpass PPG to become the largest paint manufacturer globally [5][11][25] Distribution and Channel Strategy - Sherwin-Williams has established a robust distribution network, with over 5,400 stores globally, primarily focusing on direct sales to professional contractors [16][19] - The company has a high percentage of direct sales channels (over 80%), which allows for better service and lower transportation costs [16][19] - The architectural paint market in the U.S. is characterized by a growing trend towards professional contractors, driven by increasing consumer income and an aging population [14][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing temporary pressure on performance, but continues to optimize its channel structure and overseas layout [9] - The waterproofing industry is a stable growth segment within the building materials sector, with increasing industry concentration [9] - The company is actively expanding its non-waterproof and overseas businesses, highlighting its competitive advantages as an industry leader [9] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 32,823 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,273 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] - The company anticipates a significant rebound in net profit for 2025, reaching 1,296 million yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of 1,098.2% [1] - The operating income for the first half of 2025 is reported at 135.69 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.84% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is 5.64 billion yuan, down 40.16% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 are 25.40% and 4.03%, respectively, showing a decline of 3.82 and 2.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] Channel and Retail Business - The company’s engineering and retail channel revenues totaled 114.06 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, accounting for 84.06% of total revenue, indicating an increase in channel revenue proportion [3] - Retail business revenue reached 50.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.98% year-on-year, but its revenue share increased by 1.54 percentage points [3][8] - The company is enhancing its retail business through the integration of its construction coating retail segment and the establishment of a C-end service brand [8] Overseas Expansion - The company is advancing its overseas layout with multiple initiatives, including the construction of bases in Houston, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Malaysia [8] - The focus is on optimizing costs and enhancing service capabilities in North America and Europe [8]

Core Viewpoint The company emphasizes a strategy of high-quality and steady development, focusing on risk management and enhancing operational quality while expanding its business into various sectors within the construction materials industry. Group 1: Company Overview - The company is committed to high-quality and steady development, prioritizing risk management and operational quality enhancement [2][11] - The company has diversified its business into multiple sectors, including waterproofing, civil building materials, mortar powder, building coatings, energy conservation, adhesives, piping, building renovation, new energy, non-woven fabrics, special films, and emulsions [11][29] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564.44 million yuan, with a total distributable profit of 8.73 billion yuan [32][33] - The profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 9.25 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 2.21 billion yuan [33][36] Group 3: Business Strategy - The company focuses on consolidating its waterproofing business while actively exploring new growth areas in infrastructure construction, public services, and renovation projects [3][23] - The company aims to leverage its existing customer resources and sales channels to rapidly develop non-waterproof businesses, providing comprehensive building material system solutions [3][4] Group 4: Market Position and Industry Context - The company is positioned as a leading player in the construction materials industry, particularly in the waterproofing segment, which is essential for modern construction [29][30] - The domestic waterproofing industry is characterized by low concentration and high fragmentation, with many small enterprises, while the company has established itself as a competitive and growing leader in the market [30] Group 5: Sales and Distribution Channels - The company has developed a multi-layered marketing channel network combining direct sales and channel models, with a focus on engineering and retail channels [27][28] - The engineering channel accounted for 84.06% of the company's revenue, highlighting the importance of this sales model [6] Group 6: International Expansion - The company is accelerating its international business layout, establishing overseas companies and enhancing its global supply chain [4][8] - Significant progress has been made in constructing overseas production bases, including projects in Houston, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia, aimed at optimizing international operations and enhancing service capabilities [9][26]

Group 1: Cement Industry - National cement prices continue to decline due to high temperatures and rainfall affecting construction activities, leading to reduced demand [1][2] - Approximately half of the clinker production lines nationwide have halted operations, but supply regulation remains limited, resulting in high clinker inventory levels among cement companies [1][2] - Short-term demand is expected to remain weak, but rising costs may provide some support for cement prices, which are anticipated to fluctuate at low levels with limited decline [2] Group 2: Construction Materials - Retail sales of building and decoration materials increased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to June, with a 1.0% year-on-year growth in June alone, and a 14.76% month-on-month increase [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal is expected to stabilize the market, driven by policies promoting housing sales and home decoration subsidies [3] - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal as a key focus, which is likely to boost demand for construction materials such as pipes, waterproof materials, and building coatings [3] Group 3: Fiberglass - The price of fiberglass yarn remains stable but is trending weakly, with demand appearing lackluster; however, high-end products like wind power yarn are supporting market demand [3] - Electronic yarn prices are stable, with steady demand from CCL manufacturers and a tight supply of high-end products, leading to potential price increases [3] Group 4: Float Glass - Float glass prices have risen due to speculation driven by futures market changes, leading to increased purchasing activity and a slight decrease in inventory levels [4] - The market is heavily influenced by futures prices, but the fundamental demand remains weak, with stable supply expected in the short term [4][5] - Long-term, the industry supply-demand structure is expected to improve as policies to reduce capacity are implemented [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - For construction materials, companies with strong channel layouts and product quality such as Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Dongfang Yuhong are recommended [5] - In the cement sector, regional leaders like Shangfeng Cement are expected to recover profitability, with attention on Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [5] - For fiberglass, China Jushi is highlighted as a beneficiary of demand recovery in emerging markets, with price increases expected for mid-to-high-end products [5] - In the glass sector, companies like Qibin Group are recommended as the supply-demand structure is expected to gradually optimize [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dow Chemical reported a significant decline in performance across all departments for Q2, reflecting a broader market downturn similar to BASF's 81% drop in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Net Sales**: $10.104 billion, down 7% year-on-year and down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][10]. - **Volume**: Decreased by 1% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter, with growth in the US and Canada offset by declines in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and India [3]. - **Prices**: Fell by 7% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter due to pressure on global chemical product prices [4]. - **GAAP Net Loss**: $801 million, compared to a profit of $458 million in the same quarter last year, resulting in a total loss of $1.091 billion for the first half of the year [5][10]. - **Operating EBIT**: Loss of $21 million, down from a profit of $819 million year-on-year, primarily due to price declines and reduced equity earnings [5][10]. - **Cash Flow from Operations**: Negative $470 million, a decrease of $1.3 billion year-on-year, indicating significant pressure on profit margins [6][10]. Departmental Performance - **Packaging and Specialty Plastics**: - Net Sales: $5.0 billion, down 9% year-on-year [11][12]. - Operating EBIT: $71 million, down 89% year-on-year [11][12]. - **Industrial Intermediates and Infrastructure**: - Net Sales: $2.786 billion, down 5.6% year-on-year [13]. - Operating EBIT: Loss of $185 million, compared to a profit of $7 million in the same quarter last year [13]. - **High Performance Materials and Coatings**: - Net Sales: $2.129 billion, down 5% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter [14][15]. - Operating EBIT: $152 million, a slight increase year-on-year [14][15]. Future Outlook - Dow Chemical anticipates improvements from recent growth projects and long-term strategic investments, which are expected to enhance its position in higher-value applications and attractive end markets [16]. - The company is optimizing its asset base by shutting down three upstream assets in Europe and selling its 50% stake in a joint venture, continuing a series of over 20 asset actions initiated since 2023 [16][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous upgrade of special fabrics and the focus on the promotion of anti-involution policies in the construction materials sector [6] - The glass fiber industry is expected to perform well, with a focus on construction materials and anti-involution measures [2] - The report anticipates that the anti-involution policies will lead to structural adjustments and the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries, including construction materials [6][7] Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices continue to decline, with a national average shipment rate of approximately 45.5%, a 2.4 percentage point increase month-on-month but a 0.5 percentage point decrease year-on-year [8] - The average price of cement nationwide is 348.87 yuan/ton, down 3.87 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 46.29 yuan/ton year-on-year [24] - Glass prices are showing slight increases, with a national average price of 69.59 yuan per weight box, up 0.14 yuan per weight box month-on-month but down 11.89 yuan year-on-year [37] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on special fabrics and the African supply chain, with key players such as China National Materials Technology benefiting from domestic substitution in special glass fiber fabrics [10] - It also suggests paying attention to companies like Huaxin Cement and Western Cement, which are expected to benefit from the structural optimization of demand in the construction materials sector [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of existing leading companies in the construction materials sector as a main line for investment throughout the year [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector [6] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials sector [6] Core Insights - The transition from rapid urbanization to stable development in China indicates a shift from large-scale expansion to stock quality improvement, impacting the construction and building materials industry [1][2] - Urban renewal is identified as a key focus area, with significant investment opportunities in infrastructure upgrades, consumer-oriented building materials, and smart urban operations [2][5] - The integration of urban planning and design is emphasized, requiring higher capabilities from architectural firms to enhance urban living experiences [3] - Infrastructure investment is expected to concentrate on modern urban systems and urban renewal, with a focus on key projects that align with national priorities [4] Summary by Sections Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Urban renewal is highlighted as a critical strategy, with an estimated investment demand of approximately 4 trillion yuan for the renovation of nearly 600,000 kilometers of urban pipelines over the next five years [2] - The demand for consumer-oriented infrastructure and renovation of existing properties is projected to increase the market share of building materials like coatings [2] Architectural Design and Planning - The report notes a shift towards integrated urban planning that enhances the capacity to support population and economic growth, which will elevate the requirements for architectural design firms [3] Infrastructure Investment Focus - The report outlines a strategic focus on infrastructure that supports modern urban systems, including transportation, energy, and water management, which are expected to maintain a favorable investment climate [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from urban renewal and infrastructure projects, including leading firms in construction design and smart urban operations [5] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China State Construction, Tunnel Corporation, and Three Trees, with target prices and buy ratings provided [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the building materials industry [2] Core Views - The real estate chain is stabilizing due to continued policy support, and industrial transformation is aiding fundamental recovery [1] - The cement market is experiencing weak demand and price fluctuations, while the float glass market is seeing price declines and weak shipments [1][12][13] - The consumption building materials sector is benefiting from ongoing "good housing" construction initiatives, with leading companies in sub-sectors maintaining their advantages [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Views - Cement Industry: Demand remains poor, with prices continuing to decline. The national average cement price fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with significant price drops in regions like North China and South China [12][22] - Float Glass Industry: Prices are declining, with the national average price at 1200 RMB/ton, down 7.14 RMB/ton from the previous week. The market is facing weak demand and cautious purchasing behavior [13] - Fiberglass Industry: The price of non-alkali roving remains stable, while electronic yarn prices are seeing slight increases due to tight supply [14] - Consumption Building Materials: The government is emphasizing affordable housing and youth apartment supply, which is expected to boost demand for consumption building materials [15][16] 2. Industry Dynamics - Macro: The e-commerce logistics index in May rose to 111.6 points, indicating a steady increase in supply and demand [20] - Real Estate: Policies are being implemented to enhance community services and support flexible employment in housing funds [20] - Infrastructure: Investment in railway and civil aviation construction is expected to grow, with significant projects planned for unconventional water development [21] 3. Recommended Stocks - Weixing New Materials: Transitioning to a system integration service provider with a focus on risk control and sustainable growth [17] - Mona Lisa: Aiming for high-end market positioning with continuous improvement in operational quality [18] - Keshun Co.: Expected recovery in profitability as the waterproofing industry consolidates [19] - North New Materials: Expanding globally with a focus on gypsum board and related products [19] - Dongpeng Holdings: Diversifying product offerings to meet comprehensive consumer needs [19]