高盛全球大宗商品研究团队在1月28日发布的报告中，显著上调了对黄金与铜两大关键金属的价格预 测，预计将直接驱动中国相关矿业企业的盈利预期系统性上修。报告指出，资源稀缺性溢价已实质性显 现。 据追风交易台，报告将2026年基准黄金目标价格上调10%-16%，预计当年均价可达4978美元/盎司；同 时将2026年LME铜价预测提升7%至12200美元/吨。基于上述价格调整，高盛相应将覆盖范围内的中国 铜与黄金企业2026-2027年盈利预测上调9%-33%。 研报强调，具备显著产量增长潜力的龙头企业将同时享受价格上行与产能扩张的双重红利，预计2026年 部分企业铜产量增幅可达9%-14%。从估值角度看，当前股价水平仍普遍反映较为保守的大宗商品价格 预期，若长期目标价位逐步兑现，当前板块估值具备明显安全边际与上行空间。 结构性配置推升金价，资金流入铸就铜稀缺溢价 高盛全球团队最新研究指出，大宗商品市场正步入结构性重估阶段，尤其体现在贵金属与工业金属领 域。 黄金方面，团队将2026年均价预测上调10%至4978美元/盎司，并将2027年上半年均价预测大幅调升16% 至5585美元/盎司。高盛分析指出，此前报告提示的 ...

Group 1 - The recent strong performance of copper prices is primarily driven by market expectations of potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, leading to stockpiling behavior in the U.S. and significant "scarcity premium" in prices [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton, while maintaining its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast at $11,200 per ton, indicating that prices above $13,000 are unlikely to be sustainable [1] - The current copper price increase is not due to global supply-demand tightness, as Goldman Sachs projects a global copper market surplus of 600,000 tons in 2025, the largest absolute surplus since 2009, and has adjusted the 2026 surplus forecast from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The U.S. decision on refined copper tariffs is a key catalyst for future copper price trends, with Goldman Sachs reducing the probability of timely tariff implementation from 55% to 45% following the White House's delay on lumber tariffs, reflecting a focus on "affordability" ahead of midterm elections [1] - Once the U.S. tariff decision becomes clearer, market attention will shift back to the fundamental global supply surplus, potentially signaling the end of the current price increase cycle driven by stockpiling [2] - From a longer-term perspective, Goldman Sachs predicts that a return to supply-demand balance starting in 2027 will help alleviate supply tightness in markets outside the U.S. [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by a stockpiling trend due to anticipated U.S. tariffs and speculative funds, creating a temporary "scarcity premium" in the market. However, the bank warns that the current high price above $13,000 is unsustainable and significantly detached from the fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Price Predictions and Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs has raised its LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton, citing tightening inventories outside the U.S. due to capital inflows and supply shifts [1]. - The bank maintains its fourth-quarter 2026 price forecast at $11,200 per ton, indicating significant downward pressure on prices in the latter half of the year [1]. - The copper price has increased by 22% since late November last year, reaching a peak of $13,387 on January 6 [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects the second quarter to be a turning point for market sentiment, with a decision on refined copper tariffs likely to shift focus back to a severe global supply surplus [2]. - The global copper market supply surplus forecast for 2026 has been raised from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons, indicating a return to supply-demand fundamentals as the price driver [2]. Group 3: Speculative Trends and Market Sentiment - The recent rise in copper prices is not supported by traditional supply-demand gaps but rather by capital flows and inventory transfers, with current prices exceeding the reasonable fundamental level of approximately $11,400 per ton [3]. - Speculative positions in the copper market are nearing historical highs, with the proportion of speculative long positions at CME showing signs of being in the later stages of the current price rally [5]. - If speculative net positions increase by 1 percentage point, copper prices could rise by an average of 0.4%, indicating a fragile upward trend driven by speculation [5]. Group 4: Tariff Decision Uncertainty - The timing of the U.S. refined copper tariff decision is a key catalyst for future price movements, with Goldman Sachs reducing the probability of timely implementation from 55% to 45% [4]. - Delays or insufficient increases in tariffs could have dual impacts on LME copper prices, allowing continued stockpiling in the U.S. while also prompting a reassessment of global supply surplus realities [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in oil, copper, and gold prices reflects different underlying factors, with oil experiencing geopolitical tensions, copper driven by supply concerns and tariff fears, and gold acting as a safe haven amid economic uncertainty [3][4][5]. Oil Market - Oil prices have increased for three consecutive weeks, reaching around $59 per barrel, marking the longest streak since June of the previous year [3]. - The rise is influenced by geopolitical issues in Iran and Venezuela, but there are concerns about increasing global inventories and potential oversupply [3]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that client bearish sentiment towards oil is at a ten-year high, suggesting that the current price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Copper and Industrial Metals - Copper prices have surged, nearing $13,000 per ton, with many industrial metals experiencing a four-week price increase [4]. - The primary concern driving this surge is supply tightness and fears of potential U.S. tariffs, leading to increased shipments to the U.S. and creating a temporary "scarcity premium" [4]. - Analysts warn that price levels driven by policy expectations and stockpiling behaviors may reverse quickly if those expectations change [4]. Gold Market - Gold prices are also rising, driven by its appeal as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation [4]. - The mixed economic data from the U.S. suggests that the Federal Reserve may not take aggressive actions in January, maintaining a status quo that supports gold's safe-haven status [4]. - Unlike oil and copper, gold's price movements are less influenced by immediate supply-demand dynamics and more reflective of global monetary policy and market sentiment [4]. Investment Strategy - For cyclical commodities like oil and copper, investors are advised to avoid chasing prices amid mixed signals and to wait for clearer supply-demand indicators [5]. - Gold can serve as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios to manage uncertainty, although expectations for short-term price surges should be tempered [5]. - The market's apparent excitement should not obscure the distinct narratives each commodity presents regarding economic conditions [5].