国内金价暴跌20元！现在是上车的黄金时刻吗？ 小区的黄金柜台前最近热闹得很：张大妈攥着存折犹豫要不要抄底，说上周看的投资金条还928元/克， 这周就跌到908元/克，单克降了20元；刚订婚的小李更纠结，想给未婚妻买金镯子，又怕买完再跌，不 买又担心后续涨价。2025年11月的黄金市场像坐过山车，国际金价从4381美元/盎司的峰值单日暴跌超 500美元，国内金价也跟着回调，不少人都在问：这波下跌是"抄底良机"还是"套牢陷阱"。 1. 暴跌实锤：国内单克跌20元，金店却"抗跌"？ 2. 暴跌原因拆解：政策+国际，双重因素砸盘？ 这波金价下跌，是国内政策调整和国际市场变化的双重作用，每一个原因都有实打实的依据。 第一个关键因素是国内税收新政冲击。2025年11月1日，财政部、税务总局明确区分投资性与非投资性 黄金的增值税政策，非投资性黄金进项税抵扣大幅降低，推高了部分企业成本，市场担忧后续流通成本 上升，引发短期抛售潮。政策落地后，工行、建行等银行还一度暂停黄金积存业务，调整系统对接，进 一步加剧了市场波动。 先给大家上硬数据，这波金价下跌可不是空穴来风。上海黄金交易所数据显示，11月以来黄金（T+D） 价格从92 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, necessitating a comprehensive analysis of short-term policy impacts and long-term macroeconomic conditions [1] Short-term Policy Impact - The new tax policy aims to direct investment demand towards standardized on-market transactions [1] - The procurement cost for non-investment gold (such as jewelry) has increased by approximately 7%, which may be passed on to consumers [1] - The cost of investment gold bars (purchased through exchange member units) remains largely unchanged, leading to expectations of rising jewelry prices while the impact on investment gold bars is limited [1] Macroeconomic and Policy Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is strengthening the dollar, which suppresses gold prices [1] - Uncertainty from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown is present, although there are still expectations for a Fed rate cut [1] - Short-term pressure is anticipated due to a strong dollar and high interest rates, while medium to long-term support is expected from rate cut expectations and fiscal risks [1] Market Supply and Demand Structure - Central bank gold purchases remain robust, with global central bank gold buying reaching 220 tons by Q3 2025 [1] - There has been a significant increase in gold ETF investment demand in Q3 [1] - Jewelry consumption may be suppressed due to rising prices, providing solid bottom support but limited short-term price-driving momentum [1] Investment Strategies for Gold - The core of the tax policy is to guide investment demand into standardized and regulated on-market channels [1] - It is advisable to prioritize purchasing investment gold bars through member units of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (such as major banks or reputable gold merchants) to benefit from tax incentives and lower costs [1] - Investors should consider focusing on gold ETFs and accumulation gold products, which offer convenience and liquidity, and are not directly affected by the new tax policy on physical gold, making them good tools to capitalize on long-term gold price appreciation potential [1] Consumer Insights - Jewelry consumers should be aware that gold jewelry prices are likely to remain high due to the new tax policy, with pricing reflecting high craftsmanship fees and brand premiums [1] - Caution is advised to avoid chasing high prices, as gold may experience short-term volatility; a wait-and-see approach is recommended to avoid short-term trading pitfalls [1] - For long-term investors, gradually building positions at the lower end of the price range during fluctuations is suggested [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 1,200 [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong business performance since 2025, with effective price adjustments ensuring high gross margins despite new tax policies. The growth in membership and repurchase rates, along with positive market feedback on new products, indicates a robust future outlook [1][2]. - The company is leveraging a dual strategy of "cultural empowerment + craftsmanship innovation" to drive product innovation, maintaining a steady pace of new product launches that resonate well in the market [2]. - The company has expanded its offline high-end channel presence and initiated overseas expansion, with significant online sales growth. The opening of new stores in major domestic commercial centers and international locations marks a strategic move towards global presence [3]. - Recent tax policy changes are expected to increase procurement costs across the industry, but the company is well-positioned to leverage its pricing power and cost control capabilities to enhance its competitive advantage [3]. - The company completed a placement of new H shares, raising approximately HKD 27.07 billion to strengthen its supply chain resilience and meet seasonal demand, with a significant portion allocated for inventory reserves [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of RMB 49.1 billion, RMB 62.1 billion, and RMB 75.8 billion respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [5]. Summary by Sections Products - The company is innovating through the integration of intangible cultural heritage techniques with modern design, leading to successful product launches such as the "Seven Sons Gourd" and "Cross Pendant" series, which have received positive market responses [2]. Channels - The company has opened 10 new stores since 2025, including a flagship store in Shanghai and its first overseas store in Singapore, indicating a comprehensive domestic and international expansion strategy. Online sales have surged, with a reported 874% year-on-year growth in sales from July to September 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - The recent share placement enhances liquidity for inventory management during peak seasons, with a focus on maintaining a diversified procurement strategy to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating gold prices [4]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 26.623 billion in 2025, reflecting a 213% increase from the previous year. The net profit margin is expected to remain strong, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.914 billion for 2025 [10][17].

Core Viewpoint - The new gold tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to regulate the gold market by categorizing gold transactions into "investment" and "non-investment" types, potentially leading to an increase in retail prices of investment gold bars and widening the buy-sell price gap [2] Group 1: Tax Policy Implications - The new tax policy will exempt value-added tax (VAT) on standard gold traded on exchanges, while non-exchange transactions will incur VAT, promoting a more regulated and transparent market [2] - For ordinary consumers, tax costs are a significant factor in choosing investment channels, with lower costs available through exchange member units compared to non-exchange channels [2] Group 2: Investment Options and Strategies - Physical gold is a direct investment method, but gold jewelry is not suitable for pure investment due to high premiums and potential depreciation [3] - Gold ETFs offer liquidity, low transaction costs, and no storage costs, making them accessible for ordinary investors [3] - Gold dollar-cost averaging is recommended to mitigate risks associated with price volatility, allowing investors to smooth costs over time [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Recommendations - Experts suggest that the proportion of gold assets in total household assets should be controlled, with conservative investors keeping it under 5% and aggressive investors under 10% [4] - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation and credit currency risks, typically moving inversely to stock markets, thus providing risk diversification [4] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a trend towards asset diversification and geopolitical risk management [4] Group 4: Market Risks and Investor Behavior - Ordinary investors should be cautious of short-term market volatility, as current gold prices are at historical highs, with signs of market overbuying [5] - The tax adjustment is seen as a means to standardize transactions rather than alter value, with historical data indicating that gold prices will ultimately align with core economic factors [5] - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon when selecting gold products and channels, ensuring that gold serves as a stabilizing asset in their portfolio [5]

钛媒体App 11月4日消息，税收新政落地首周，线下黄金交易市场反映如何？实地走访深圳水贝黄金交 易中心了解到，黄金饰品批发和零售端已普遍启动涨价。多位商家透露，目前估算零售价格上调幅度普 遍在7%到8%左右，部分可能涨幅会达到13%。但仍有少量"免税"黄金在售。与此同时，多数黄金板料 经营商家紧急暂停出货报价，还在选择观望市场动向。（智通财经） ...