投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏多氛围减弱，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：上周末美国和欧洲达成贸易协议，中国和美国也将在本月底在瑞典举行经贸会议。在宏 观因子改善的背景下，商品市场风险偏好回升。由于上周五黑色商品集体重挫，弱化商品期货市场 偏多氛围，市场偏空情绪 ...

Group 1 - Guangdong Province has issued a guideline prohibiting the registration of "small property houses" and other illegal constructions, effective from August 4, 2025, which aims to promote the purchase of legitimate properties and regulate the real estate market [1] - Shandong Binzhou is collecting existing commercial housing to convert into affordable housing, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the real estate market and help companies reduce inventory [2] - Vanke has pledged 117 million shares of its subsidiary, Wanwu Cloud, to Shenzhen Metro Group as collateral for a loan, reflecting the company's strategy to stabilize its cash flow amid current market conditions [3] Group 2 - Times China has disclosed a debt restructuring plan involving approximately $2.9 billion, with over 85.67% of creditors agreeing to the plan, which could alleviate financial pressure and serve as a model for other distressed real estate companies [4] - The CEO of Zhuhai Wanda Commercial Management, Xiao Guangrui, has resigned, and the company has appointed new leadership, indicating a potential shift in strategic direction following recent management changes [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Beijing office market remained relatively stable in Q2 2025, with technology companies leading in leasing activities, enhancing market liquidity and boosting confidence in the commercial real estate sector [1] - Domestic buyers continue to show strong interest in retail and office assets in Beijing, driven by the value gap effect of quality assets in core business districts and the ongoing release of self-use demand from enterprises, which is expected to optimize the supply-demand structure in the long term [1] - The high-end residential market saw significant growth in both supply and sales volume in the first half of the year, with approximately 3,300 new luxury apartments supplied in Q2, surpassing the total supply for the entire year of 2024, and Q2 sales reached about 2,100 units, marking the highest quarterly sales in the past two years [1] Group 2 - The monetary policy, including interest rate cuts in May, has created a relatively loose credit environment for the residential market, with expectations of a significant increase in new home transaction volumes compared to the previous year due to favorable market conditions and price advantages for buyers [2]

Group 1 - The company expects a net loss of between 80 million to 120 million RMB for the current period, with a significant decrease in net profit attributable to shareholders by 120.64% to 130.96% compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's operating revenue is projected to be between 3.8 billion to 4.2 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 74.63% to 93.01% [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.49 to 0.74 RMB per share, compared to a profit of 2.63 RMB per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The improvement in supply-demand structure has driven overall price recovery, and the company has actively expanded its enterprise-level storage and embedded storage businesses, leading to a significant increase in operational scale [2] - The company anticipates a substantial increase in R&D expenses, with approximately 130 million RMB for the first half of 2025, up from 86.64 million RMB in the same period last year, marking a 50% increase [2] - The company has successfully upgraded its service model from a single product supply to an integrated service of "hardware + technology + supply chain," achieving rapid breakthroughs in enterprise-level and embedded storage sectors [2]

Group 1 - The upcoming summer peak season for civil aviation in 2025 is prompting multiple airlines to launch new routes and explore diversified markets, indicating a focus on enhancing market consumption potential [1] - According to Minsheng Securities, domestic airline prices have improved since the beginning of the year, with off-season demand showing support, and strong performance in holiday air traffic likely to carry over into the summer peak season [1] - Airbus's 2024 GMF report predicts a long-term global air passenger traffic compound annual growth rate of 3.6%, with significant growth in per capita flight frequency, particularly in China, where it is expected to rise from 0.6 times in 2024 to 1.8 times by 2044 [1] Group 2 - Cathay Haitong Securities reports a slight increase in fleet size in the first half of 2025, with limited room for improvement in fleet turnover during the summer peak, and domestic operational investment expected to show minimal growth [2] - The demand for family travel during the summer peak is anticipated to remain strong, with optimistic supply-demand expectations, and a slight adjustment in ticket prices by some airlines to ensure good pre-sale progress for the summer season [2] - With a low base for ticket prices in the summer of 2024, a year-on-year increase in ticket prices for the summer of 2025 is expected, potentially leading to record profits for airlines [2] Group 3 - The aviation sector is entering a low growth supply era, with demand showing resilience since April, and the next two years expected to see continued improvement in supply-demand dynamics [2] - The aviation market is steadily approaching the peak season, with limited growth in supply and a natural increase in passenger volume, supporting the logic of rising airline revenues if domestic ticket prices recover [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities continues to recommend focusing on the aviation sector, highlighting strong certainty in supply slowdown and elastic demand, which, combined with favorable oil and exchange rate conditions, could significantly enhance airline performance [2] Group 4 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the aviation sector include China Southern Airlines (600029)(01055), Air China (601111)(00753), China Eastern Airlines (00670), Cathay Pacific Airways (00293), BOC Aviation (02588), and China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The styrene market is experiencing fluctuations in prices due to varying supply and demand dynamics, with a notable increase in inventory levels and production rates impacting market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Overview - On June 26, the main styrene contract rose by 0.25% to 7316 CNY/ton, with a basis of 659 CNY/ton, an increase of 77 CNY/ton from the previous value [1] - Brent crude oil closed at 64.9 USD/barrel, up by 0.5 USD/barrel, while WTI crude oil closed at 67.7 USD/barrel, an increase of 0.6 USD/barrel [1] - The overall inventory of styrene in sample factories increased to 189,000 tons, up by 4,000 tons, reflecting a 2.3% week-on-week accumulation [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Styrene production saw a week-on-week increase of 7.1%, reaching 362,000 tons, with a factory capacity utilization rate of 79.0%, up by 5.2% [1] - The return of styrene maintenance units is gradually improving supply, while the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 14,000 tons, a 17.1% decline [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - The operating rates of downstream sectors showed mixed results, with EPS utilization at 53.6% (down 1.8%), ABS at 64.0% (down 0.1%), and PS at 58.7% (up 0.4%) [1] - Overall, demand for pure benzene has increased significantly compared to the previous week, despite a decline in phenol operating rates [1] Group 4: Price Movements - The styrene market experienced high volatility, with prices initially stabilizing before a significant drop; as of June 25, the average closing price in Jiangsu was 7850 CNY/ton, down by 155 CNY/ton (approximately 1.94% decrease) from the previous week [1] - The price decline is attributed to weakening cost factors and increased supply pressure, with expectations of a 3.12% production increase this week [1] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term price support is expected from the upcoming paper delivery, with prices likely to remain high; however, without new positive developments post-delivery, the market may shift towards a weaker supply-demand structure, posing risks for spot price declines [1]

2025 年 06 月 17 日 固定收益点评 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 最近一年走势 相关报告 银行转债市场正经历显著的供给收缩进程，存量规模与市场占比均 出现大幅下降。 银行转债余额已从 2023 年高峰的近 3000 亿元减 少至当前约 1500 亿元，市场占比也由峰值 38.97% 下滑至约 22.64%。近期杭银转债、南银转债强赎，以及浦发转债即将到期等 密集退出事件，进一步加速了这一收缩趋势。供给端的枯竭是关键 原因，发行高峰集中在 2019-2022 年后，受制于银行板块长期破净 估值导致股权融资困难，以及监管审核趋严，新发渠道基本停滞。 银行转债供给的持续减少正深刻改变市场结构并触发配置替代需 求。 作为机构投资者传统的核心底仓资产，各类基金对银行转债 的配置热情与其存量规模同步走低，呈现持续减配趋势。基金转而 寻求红利资产或其他替代品以填补空白。配置策略出现分化，一级 债基相对有韧性，而二级债基、可转债基金及偏债混合基金则显著 减仓。这种趋势若延续，可能迫使部分追求稳健收益的产品进一步 降低整体转债敞口，转向高息银行信用债或同类型其他可转债作为 替代方向。 市场已形成四类 ...

【DT新材料】 获悉，4月25日， 北京八亿时空 发布公告，终止全资子公司 浙江八亿时空 " 年产 3000 吨六氟磷酸锂项目 "（以下简称"项目"）。 项目预计总投资约 2.80亿元，截至目前，已投入约495.01万元于项目前期开发、工艺设计及人工费用等。公司声明，由于 锂电市场供需结构的转变，电 解液市场进入到价格低迷、市场严重内卷的冷却期 ， 公司决定终止项目，用以保存实力投入到现有落地的项目。 就在前几日，4月24日，八亿时空发布2025 年第一季度报告，公司实现营业收入为2.14亿元，同比上升20.61%；归母净利润为2404.32万元，同比上升 25.25%；扣非归母净利润为2328.33万元，同比上升26.69%。 4月25日，八亿时空发布了 2024年度报告 ，公司实现全年营业收入7.37亿元，同比下降7.77%；实现归母净利润7,660.39万元，同比下降2 8.27%；实现 扣非归母净利润6,209.43万元，同比下降32.29%。 | | | | | 单位:万元 币种:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要会计数据 | 2024年 | 202 ...

热点报告——碳排放 CEA 价格加速下跌，风险短期或难消退 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | CEA：看跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 4 月 | 2025 年 | 23 | 日 | ★全国碳市场扩围方案落地，2024 年度新行业无需支付履约成本 3 月 26 日，生态环境部印发《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方案》（以下简称《方案》），标志着全国 碳市场自 2021 年启动以来的首次行业扩围正式落地。值得注意的 是，《方案》指出，2024 年度，钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额基 于经核查的实际碳排放量等量分配，即无需支付履约成本。 能 ★扩围方案的调整叠加结转政策对碳市场供需结构的影响 源 与 碳 中 和 基于扩围方案征求意见稿，如果 2024 年度四大行业均按照基准值 法进行配额分配，假设 2024—2025 年结构性缺口总量约 3.5—4 亿 吨，则基于结转政策的最优交易策略带来的累计净卖出量明显小于 结构性缺口总量，市场整体供不应求；扩围方案调整后，结构性缺 口总量与最优净卖出量同时收缩，但结构性缺口总 ...