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节后买断式逆回购操作释放积极信号,资金利率或低位运行
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 02:03
人民银行13日开展1378亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率为1.40%,与此前持平;鉴于当日无逆回购到 期,公开市场实现净投放1378亿元。 国庆假期前后(9月28日-10月11日)央行公开市场逆回购净回笼13304亿元,央行宣布10月9日开展1.1 万亿3M买断式逆回购操作,相较于其本月到期净投放3000亿元。节前央行逆回购净投放逐日缩减,跨 季当日已转为净回笼,但或受财政投放等因素影响,资金维持平稳,机构平稳跨季;节后首日逆回购到 期超2万亿元,央行1.1万亿3M买断式逆回购落地,叠加月初资金需求有限,DR001重回1.3%附近。 节后尽管面临大规模逆回购集中到期,资金价格依然逐步回归跨季前水平。截至10日,隔夜资金利率下 探至OMO利率之下,R001较节前下行21BP至1.33%,R007也下行13BP至1.49%。 往后看,税期前资金面有望维持平稳,10月流动性的考验或集中在月末。受国庆假期影响,本月税期申 报截止日延迟至27日,28-29日为走款日。这也意味着,税期和跨月周重合,且10月为季初大税期,跨 月前的流动性压力更为突出。而在此之前,资金面基本处于利空因素真空期。参考往年经验,10月税期 之前 ...
流动性跟踪:税期扰动,之后或重回宽松
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-16 15:13
Group 1: Market Overview - The tax period has initiated, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity, with R001 remaining stable at 1.35% for 10 consecutive trading days[1] - On August 15, the central bank switched to a net injection of CNY 116 billion, with R001 rising by 9 basis points to 1.44%[1][11] - The CNEX liquidity sentiment index increased to 50-54 on August 14, indicating a shift in market sentiment[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Following the tax period, liquidity is expected to ease, with overnight rates likely returning to around OMO-5 basis points[2] - The government bond net payment decreased to CNY 2,641 billion, significantly lower than the previous week's CNY 4,604 billion[5][31] - The upcoming week (August 18-22) will see a total of CNY 9,318 billion maturing in the open market, including CNY 7,118 billion in reverse repos[3][20] Group 3: Interbank Market - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose slightly to 1.61%, up 1 basis point from the previous week[6][36] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was CNY 7,747 billion, with a net financing of -CNY 1,318 billion[6][44] - The average maturity of interbank certificates of deposit extended to 8.1 months, compared to 6.4 months the previous week[6][45]