来源：@华夏时报微博 新政后首个周末热门项目售楼处。董红艳/摄 华夏时报记者 董红艳 北京报道 岁末凛冬已至，北京楼市却因新政落地暖意渐生。新政执行后的首个周末，《华夏时报》记者走访了多区域市 场。 整体看，政策红利的持续释放，提振了市场活跃度，部分区域的销售业绩有望迎来可观增长。与此同时，长期处 于博弈弱势的卖方心态，正悄然发生转变。而对一些购房者来说，触底信号下，也"松了一口气"，有购房者对记 者表示："其实我们买家更希望房价能够稳定下来。" 分市场来看，新房端的提振效应尤为突出。机构监测数据显示，新政实施后，新房日均网签量较12月政策落地前 的日均水平上涨44.6%。 据58安居客平台数据，截至12月28日，北京二手房最近一周有效连接数（有效沟通）增长16%，留电用户增长 20%，预约带看确定量增长13%。 不过从网签数据来看，新政对二手房市场的提振效应尚未完全显现。中指数据显示，12月25日至28日，北京二手 房住宅日均网签量为511套，与新政前（12月1日至24日）的日均成交水平基本持平。 对此，中指研究院分析指出，网签数据存在一定滞后性，随着政策效应逐步释放叠加年末房企优惠力度加大，北 京楼市的活 ...

2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，房地产行业的发展走向直接关乎民生福祉与国民经济稳定运行。近 期住建部联合相关部门出台的系列部署，以"稳市场、防风险、优供给、促转型"为四大核心目标，不仅 勾勒出2026年房地产行业的发展蓝图，更标志着行业正式告别全域普涨的旧模式，迈入"总量趋稳、结 构分化"的高质量发展新阶段。这一系列政策调整并非短期应急调控，而是推动行业从"增量扩张"向"存 量优化"转型的关键举措，其对房价的影响呈现鲜明的结构性特征，将深刻重塑市场格局。 住建部最新部署的核心逻辑在于"精准施策、双向发力"，通过供需两端的协同调控破解当前"供强需 弱"的结构性矛盾，为市场平稳运行筑牢基础。在需求端，部署明确延续宽松导向，一方面深化住房公 积金制度改革，推动贷款额度提升、异地互认互贷等政策落地，降低刚需与改善型群体的购房门槛， 2025年全国已出台超260条公积金优化政策，这一趋势在2026年将持续强化，尤其利好新市民、青年群 体置业； 另一方面支持各地因城施策放宽限购限制、降低首付比例与房贷利率，结合个税补贴、交易税费减免等 措施，切实减轻居民购房成本。在供给端，部署聚焦"控增量、去库存、优供给"三大任务 ...

为何我国不降房价？坦白说，"真实原因"有4个，听完"恍然大悟"！ 最近房价这事儿，可以说是沸沸扬扬的。很多人都在问，为啥调控这么久了，房价就是不大幅下跌呢？说实话，这背后的 原因比我们想象的要复杂得多。 据说内部有个不成文的规定， 房价绝对不能暴跌 。为什么？听完这4个真实原因，你就恍然大悟了。 第二个原因：地方政府的钱袋子 这个说得直白点，就是土地财政的问题。很多地方政府，30%以上的收入都来自卖地。你说房价跌了，地价能不跌吗？地价 跌了，地方财政收入就少了。 没钱了怎么办？公务员工资发不出，基建项目停工，民生保障也得打折扣。这不是开玩笑的事儿。 据内部人士透露 ，有些城市已经出现了财政紧张的苗头。如果这个时候再让房价大跌，那真的是雪上加霜了。 第三个原因：金融系统扛不住 银行这边的压力也便开始显现。现在大部分老百姓买房都是贷款，如果房价暴跌，会不会掀起一波断供潮？ 第一个原因：整个经济都绑在房子上了 现实也是这样的，房地产这个行业，已经不是单纯的盖房卖房那么简单了。你想想，从水泥钢筋到家具家电，从银行放贷 到装修设计，这一整条产业链上，多少人在吃这碗饭？ 无疑也是一个巨大的就业蓄水池。如果房价真的暴跌，势 ...

断供的人多了，银行就废了。银行一出问题，整个金融体系都得跟着震。到时候，普通人想贷款买房？门都没有。银行自身都难保，还会给你放贷吗？ 第二个危害更直接， 就是大量人失业 。房地产这个行业，牵扯的人太多了。从建筑工人到售楼小姐，从装修师傅到家具厂工人，全都靠这个行业吃饭。 房价一跌，开发商就不敢拿地了。不拿地就不开工，不开工这些人就没活干。失业的人多了，谁还有钱买房？这不是恶性循环吗？ 你看看那些已经下跌的城市，郑州、石家庄这些地方，现在房地产相关的工作有多难找？ 房价要稳定，因为一旦全面下跌，可能会带来四个危害，普通人将更难买到房子！ 最近关于房价的讨论又热了起来。很多人都在说，房价这么高，要是能跌一跌该多好。但仔细想想， 房价真的全面下跌了，普通人就能受益吗？ 可以说是太天真了。 第一个危害就是， 银行系统会出大问题 。你想想，现在多少家庭都是贷款买房？据说现在城镇家庭房贷占比能到60%多。房价一旦全面下跌，那些刚买房 的人就成了"负资产"。房子值50万，但还欠银行80万的贷款。这种情况下，肯定会有人选择断供。 你敢买一个可能烂尾的楼盘吗？就算便宜，你也不敢下手啊。 而且，房价下跌往往伴随着经济不景气。你的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex reasons behind developers' reluctance to significantly lower housing prices and the local governments' frequent easing of real estate policies, emphasizing the need for market stability rather than drastic fluctuations [1][9]. Market Background - Since the second half of last year, the domestic housing market has shown a downward trend, with the average national housing price dropping from 11,000 yuan per square meter to 9,560 yuan per square meter, a decline of over 15%. As of August this year, only 29 out of 100 key cities saw new housing prices increase, while 69 cities experienced price declines [3]. - The second-hand housing market is even more challenging, with only 23 cities seeing price increases, while 74 cities reported declines [3]. Current Housing Prices - Despite the overall decline, housing prices remain high, with the average price in 60 key cities at 17,593 yuan per square meter. Purchasing an ordinary commodity house often costs two to three million yuan, while first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have average prices reaching 60,000 to 70,000 yuan per square meter, leading to costs of six to seven million yuan [5]. Developer and Government Actions - Many developers are choosing to "hold the line" on prices, with promotional discounts rarely exceeding 10%. Concurrently, local governments have introduced numerous policies to ease the real estate market, with 299 regulatory measures implemented in the first half of 2022, including relaxed purchase restrictions, loan limits, and housing subsidies [6]. - Some cities have even introduced "price drop limits" to prevent developers from significantly lowering prices [6]. Reasons for Price Stability - A sudden drop in housing prices could exacerbate market hesitation, making it harder for developers to sell existing inventory, as buyers tend to wait for lower prices [8]. - Significant price reductions could lead to dissatisfaction among previous buyers, potentially resulting in compensation claims and social instability [8]. - A drastic decline in prices could diminish developers' willingness to acquire land, negatively impacting local government revenues from land sales, which are crucial for infrastructure projects and economic growth [8]. - A cooling real estate market would also affect numerous related industries, including steel, cement, and home furnishings, which employ a large workforce, thus threatening job stability [8]. Conclusion - The easing of real estate policies and developers' reluctance to lower prices significantly stem from a desire to avoid drastic fluctuations in housing prices, which could lead to social and economic instability. Stability is currently the primary goal of real estate market regulation [9].

Group 1 - The core issue is that a significant drop in housing prices could trigger a series of chain reactions, impacting economic and social stability [4] - Local governments rely heavily on land finance as a key source of revenue, and a sharp decline in housing prices would reduce developers' willingness to acquire land, leading to a sluggish land market and decreased fiscal income [3] - The real estate sector is interconnected with numerous upstream and downstream industries, such as steel, cement, and home appliances, providing many jobs; a collapse in housing prices would directly impact these industries, leading to reduced investment demand and increased unemployment [5] Group 2 - Homeowners may express dissatisfaction due to asset depreciation if housing prices fall significantly, potentially leading to social unrest and legal disputes [5] - A drastic decline in housing prices could exceed the down payment ratio for many buyers, resulting in widespread defaults and increased financial risks for banks [5] - Developers face heightened inventory pressures and increased difficulty in sales if housing prices drop, which could exacerbate the risk of loan recoveries for banks [7] Group 3 - Local governments and developers are reluctant to see a sharp decline in housing prices due to the potential economic and social risks, prompting them to implement various measures to stabilize the real estate market [7] - The fundamental goal of recent adjustments in the real estate market across various regions in China is to prevent drastic fluctuations in housing prices, thereby maintaining overall economic and social stability [7]

Group 1 - Huang Qifan's predictions about the real estate market have been largely validated, with expectations for the next two years aligning with his forecasts [1][3] - He predicted a significant decline in new home sales, estimating that annual transactions could drop below 1 billion square meters, representing a total reduction of approximately 40% [5] - Huang also forecasted that housing prices would stabilize, with average growth rates aligning closely with GDP growth rates or even slower, which has been observed in the current market [7] Group 2 - The previous rapid increase in housing prices was driven by supply-demand imbalances, monetary factors, and external influences, but the current market has shifted to a state of oversupply, reducing upward pressure on prices [10][12] - Policy measures from the government, such as efforts to stabilize the real estate market, are expected to continue, but the recovery may face challenges, leading to a likely continuation of declining sales area trends [15] - Predictions indicate that new construction and investment in real estate will continue to decline, with estimates suggesting a 15.6% drop in new construction area and an 8.7% decrease in development investment by 2025 [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key tasks outlined in the government work report following the 2025 National Two Sessions, focusing on economic growth, consumption potential, asset price stability, and market confidence restoration [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Liu Shijun emphasizes the need for China to maintain a medium-speed economic growth rate of at least 4% to surpass the high-income threshold, suggesting that the nominal growth rate should exceed the actual growth rate [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of consumption as a key driver of economic growth, noting that China's final consumption accounts for nearly 20 percentage points less of GDP compared to international levels [2]. - Liu Shijun proposes increasing urban and rural residents' pensions from 220 yuan per person per month to around 400 yuan in one to two years, aiming for 600 yuan in three years and 1,000 yuan in five years, which could activate over 1 trillion yuan in consumption potential [3]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments and Market Confidence - Wang Yiming points out that the government work report prioritizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, reflecting a shift in policy focus from investment to consumption [4][5]. - The report indicates that stabilizing asset prices, particularly housing prices, is crucial, with a need for clear responsibilities and effective policies to manage supply and demand [6]. - Liu Yuanchun notes that the policy framework for 2025 must be adaptable to uncertainties, with a focus on maintaining a strong decision-making capacity in response to external shocks and internal risks [8][9]. Group 3: Enhancing Business Vitality - Yang Ruilong identifies four key areas to stimulate the vitality of domestic business entities: clarifying property rights, allowing self-management and accountability, ensuring fair competition, and minimizing unnecessary administrative intervention [10][11]. - The article stresses the importance of protecting private enterprise rights and creating a competitive environment for private businesses, particularly in infrastructure and major research projects [11].