Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelter profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm is increasing, and overall production will continue to increase. Currently, the import window is closed, but previously imported zinc is gradually flowing in. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up, but recently the zinc price has rebounded, the downstream's atmosphere of purchasing on dips has weakened, the domestic social inventory has increased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline. The terminal real - estate sector has marginally improved but still drags down demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance [3]. - Technically, trading volume has shrunk. Pay attention to the support at 22,000. It is expected that the zinc price will mainly fluctuate within a range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or conduct range - bound operations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai zinc is 22,580 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 145; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 45. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,724.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 48. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,378 lots, a month - on - month increase of 2,483. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 4,240 lots, a month - on - month increase of 1,723. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 126. The SHFE inventory is 46,351 tons (weekly), a month - on - month decrease of 751. The LME inventory is 156,725 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,075 [3]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals Network is 22,760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 150; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals Market is 22,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 490. The basis of the main ZN contract is 180 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.83 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.94. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,580 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104,100 tons. ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. ILZSG: The global monthly zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,300 tons. The domestic monthly refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons. The monthly zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 266.83 tons. The weekly zinc social inventory is 66,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 63.8246 million square meters. The monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 42.9606 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, a month - on - month increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 6. Options Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 16.62% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 16.62% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 11.98% (daily), a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.71% (daily), a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects, with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. Driven by the "Two New" policies, as of May 5th, the sales volume of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products was approximately 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China. - The NDRC stated that most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June. At the same time, it will adhere to the normalized and open - ended policy pre - research and reserve, continuously improve the policy toolkit for stabilizing employment and the economy, and ensure timely implementation when necessary. - Fed's Mousalem said that the high uncertainty is prompting households and businesses to suspend spending and investment. If this situation continues, it will lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth. Fed's Jefferson will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data for policy - making and expressed vigilance against rising inflationary pressures. Bostic said that the US economic growth this year may be between 0.5% and 1%. Domestically, on May 20th, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the LPR over 5 years was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period, the first reduction in 7 months [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the tin price will fluctuate within a range and move upward. It suggests a short - term bullish trading strategy within the range of 263,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract is 267,730 yuan/ton, up 2,970 yuan; the 6 - 7 month contract closing price is - 50 yuan, down 30 yuan - The LME 3 - month tin price is 32,960 dollars/ton, up 61 dollars - The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 29,203 lots, up 3,392 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures is 465 lots, up 649 lots - The LME tin total inventory is 2,655 tons, down 85 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 8,417 tons, down 302 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 8,070 tons, up 45 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 268,400 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,640 yuan/ton, up 3,760 yuan - The Shanghai tin main contract basis is 670 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 35.15 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, up 2,150 yuan - The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tinplate is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. From January to May 5, the sales of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products were about 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China - Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June, and policy pre - research and reserve will be carried out regularly - Internationally, the Fed will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data, and there are concerns about rising inflation pressure. Domestically, on May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to be released in late June - Yunnan faces raw material pressure, and Jiangxi is still restricted by scrap supply. The combined operating rate of local refined tin smelting enterprises is 57.16% - The orders of solder processing enterprises are stable after the holiday, the operating rate of tinplate enterprises is stable, but the terminal consumption is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. There are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction at home and abroad [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and price indicates strong bulls, and the price has stood above the MA60 [3]

Group 1: Implementation of Policies for Private Economy - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has officially implemented the Private Economy Promotion Law, marking a significant milestone in the development of the private economy in China [1] - NDRC has planned 53 policy measures across 7 areas to support the law's implementation, including actions to improve the social credit system and eliminate market access barriers [1] - NDRC aims to address concerns of private enterprises by utilizing new local government special bonds and enhancing transparency in enterprise-related fees [1] Group 2: Employment and Economic Stability - NDRC is accelerating the rollout of employment stabilization and economic growth policies, with most measures expected to be implemented by the end of June [2] - The commission emphasizes the need for ongoing policy research and reserves to ensure timely responses to economic needs [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Urban Development - NDRC plans to finalize the list of this year's "two heavy" construction projects by the end of June, focusing on high standards for implementation [3] - A special central budget for urban renewal projects will be established, supporting various infrastructure improvements, including the renovation of old residential areas [8] Group 4: Foreign Investment Encouragement - The revised foreign investment encouragement directory will prominently feature high-end manufacturing and digital economy sectors, reflecting the government's focus on these areas [4] Group 5: Addressing Market Competition Issues - NDRC acknowledges that "involution" in competition distorts market mechanisms and disrupts fair competition, necessitating corrective measures [5] - The commission proposes targeted strategies to address structural contradictions in key industries, promoting innovation and optimizing industrial layouts [7] Group 6: Credit and Contract Enforcement - NDRC is working to enhance the government’s integrity in contract enforcement and improve standards for recognizing government debt and penalties for dishonesty [10][11] - The commission aims to streamline the credit repair process and ensure timely removal from dishonesty lists for compliant entities [11] Group 7: Low-altitude Economy Development - NDRC is focused on safely expanding low-altitude economic applications while addressing safety risks associated with low-altitude flying [12][13] - The commission emphasizes the importance of regulatory compliance and safety governance in the development of low-altitude tourism and related activities [12] Group 8: Equipment Renewal and Consumer Support - NDRC plans to expedite the funding for consumer goods replacement programs and implement loan interest subsidies for equipment updates to reduce financing costs for businesses [14][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Performance 2.1 Index Spot - On April 29, the Wind All A index rose with lower trading volume, opening lower, rising, and then moving in a volatile manner, closing up 0.20%, with over 60% of stocks rising. Among the index spots, the CSI 300 and SSE 50 opened lower, rose, and then declined, closing down 0.17% and 0.22% respectively; the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose 0.12% and 0.45% respectively, indicating stronger performance of small and medium - cap stocks [6]. 2.2 Index Futures - The IH main contract performed weaker than the spot, closing down 0.26%. The IF, IC, and IM main contracts performed stronger than the spot. The IF closed down 0.16%, while the IC and IM closed up 0.30% and 0.78% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6]. 2.3 Sector Performance - The beauty care, machinery equipment, and media sectors led the gains, rising 2.60%, 1.44%, and 1.27% respectively. The public utilities, comprehensive, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the losses, with declines of 1.78%, 0.97%, and 0.55% respectively [6]. Group 3: Market Data - The report provides detailed data on index futures and spot, including closing prices, daily percentage changes, daily amplitudes, trading volumes, trading turnovers, open interests, and changes in open interests [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - In terms of tariff policies, as the US attitude eases, market risk - aversion sentiment has weakened, but the tariff war is still in the negotiation stage, and "verbal" concessions are unlikely to cause significant market fluctuations. Domestically, the Politburo meeting in April pointed out that policies to stabilize employment and the economy should be improved, and incremental reserve policies should be introduced in a timely manner. The meeting also proposed to create new structural monetary policy tools and new policy - based financial tools to support technology, consumption, and foreign trade [9]. - In terms of funds, the trading volume of some key broad - based ETFs held by Central Huijin has gradually returned to normal levels, and the "national team" support has weakened. Overall, with policy support, the index shows resilience, and the downside risk is relatively controllable. In the long - term, there is still room for domestic macro - policies to exert force, and the economic structural transformation driven by technological innovation is not pessimistic. However, in the short - term, it is still in the tariff policy digestion period, and the impact on the domestic economy needs further observation. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, funds are cautious, and it is recommended to focus on the dividend and domestic demand - gaming sectors [10]. Group 5: Industry News - On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that to implement the "two new" policies, the first batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds was issued in January 2025. As of April 27, consumer goods replacement drove related sales of about 720 billion yuan, supporting a 4.6% year - on - year increase in the national total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1. Recently, 81 billion yuan of the second - batch funds have been issued, and the NDRC will promote the implementation of the policy [30]. - On April 29, the NDRC, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice to clean up and rectify market access barriers to promote the construction of a unified national market. The focus is on regulations and practices that violate market access requirements. The NDRC will supervise and urge the rectification of problems [30].