● 本报记者 王鹤静 近期，A股商业航天、有色金属等热门板块进入宽幅震荡阶段。部分相关主题的场外指数基金净值走出 了过山车的架势，而且相比标的指数的跟踪误差也出现了明显放大迹象。目前，已有场外卫星主题指数 基金管理人主动采取措施，暂停100万元以上的大额申购。 目前，部分基金管理人已采取措施，暂停了热门主题场外指数基金的大额申购业务。根据基金公告，自 1月13日起，平安中证卫星产业指数暂停100万元以上的单日单个基金账户累计申购业务（含定期定额投 资和转换转入；该基金A类、C类、E类基金份额申购金额予以合并计算）。2025年四季度，该基金规模 已由3.84亿元迅速增至21.89亿元。 急涨急跌的板块行情，极大地提高了场外相关指数基金的管理难度。业内人士透露，资金集中进出可能 使得指数成分股流动性骤变，出现买不进去或者买进去但与指数权重差别较大的问题，导致管理人难以 通过调仓和再平衡来控制跟踪误差；而且投资者频繁申赎既增加了基金组合的现金管理压力，又容易形 成"高位接盘、低位砍仓"的负反馈循环。 由于场外基金的申赎机制具有滞后性，业内机构提示，在板块剧烈波动阶段，控制跟踪误差的核心在于 精细化运作与纪律化执行， ...

一场以"业绩"为标尺的洗牌，正在公募基金主动权益"百亿俱乐部"悄然上演。 以张坤为首的顶流基金经理管理规模普遍回落，行业"天花板"短短数年间降至500亿元以下；同时，一 批业绩亮眼的基金经理凭借超额收益强势崛起，甚至仅用一年时间就完成从数千万元到100亿、甚至300 亿的跨越式增长。 从"造神"到理性回归，百亿基金经理阵营告别"光环"叙事 紧随其后的头部基金经理规模同样承压。兴证全球基金谢治宇、中欧基金葛兰仅在"400亿+"梯队维持一 个季度，便重回300亿阵营，最新在管规模分别为386.18亿元、353.89亿元，单季度分别减少67.39亿 元、81.55亿元。 景顺长城基金刘彦春、中欧基金周蔚文则守住300亿阵营，最新管理规模分别为314.75亿元、310.04亿 元。与上一季度相比，虽有不同程度缩水，但头部阵营前五名的人员及名次保持稳定，展现出一定稳健 性。 相较之下，百亿基金经理后五名更迭频繁，其中三席出现新面孔。中欧基金蓝小康、永赢基金张璐、广 发基金杨冬，在管规模单季度分别增加37亿元至74.34亿元不等，三人均从15名开外跃升至第六、第七 位及第九位，在管规模均超过280亿元。汇添富基金胡昕炜、 ...

Core Insights - The tea beverage industry in China is experiencing a significant slowdown after a period of rapid expansion, with many brands facing challenges in maintaining profitability and growth [1][3][25]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The tea beverage market has seen a surge in the number of businesses, with over 1.1 million companies expected by 2025, and a total of 131,000 stores for 30 representative brands as of September [6]. - The growth rate of new store openings has drastically decreased, with major brands like Bawang Chaji seeing a drop from 20%-49% to single digits [3][6]. - The overall market size is projected to reach 350 billion yuan by 2024, but the growth rate has slowed from over 20% pre-pandemic to 6.4% [6]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Bawang Chaji's new store openings have significantly declined, with only 228, 318, and 246 new stores in the first three quarters of the year, compared to previous years' openings of 600-800 [3]. - Other brands like Tea Baidao and Heytea are also experiencing reduced growth, with Tea Baidao's store count increasing by only 0.7% year-on-year [6]. - Bawang Chaji reported a 9.4% decline in net revenue and a 22.3% drop in adjusted net profit in Q3 [25]. Group 3: Franchisee Challenges - Franchisees are struggling with declining profit margins, with some reporting net profit rates dropping by over 50% [3][20]. - High rental costs and increased competition are making it difficult for franchisees to maintain profitability, with many unable to find suitable locations for new stores [8][11]. - The introduction of new tax regulations has further increased the financial burden on franchisees, as reported revenues are now based on pre-discount prices [29]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The saturation of the market has led to a decrease in consumer interest, with many opting for lower-priced alternatives [20]. - Brands are facing innovation fatigue, with a lack of new product offerings leading to consumer disengagement [12][18]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with many brands launching similar products, making it hard for consumers to differentiate between them [19][20]. Group 5: Strategic Responses - In response to these challenges, brands are focusing on optimizing supply chains and product differentiation to improve profitability [31]. - Bawang Chaji is implementing a new joint venture model to reduce costs for franchisees, aiming to increase their gross margins [32]. - Brands are also looking to expand internationally, with Bawang Chaji and Heytea seeing significant growth in overseas markets [33][37].

Core Viewpoint - For FY25, the company expects revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders to grow by 11.6% and 14.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the down jacket business showing resilience despite a warm winter challenge [1][2] Revenue and Profit Summary - FY25 revenue reached 25.9 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6%, with operating profit at 4.967 billion yuan (+12.9%) and net profit at 3.514 billion yuan (+14.3%) [1] - The company declared a final dividend of 0.22 HKD per share, alongside an interim dividend of 0.06 HKD, resulting in a cash dividend payout ratio of 84% [1] Business Segment Performance - The brand down jacket business accounted for 83.7% of FY25 revenue, generating 21.67 billion yuan (+11.0%), with H1 and H2 revenues of 6.06 billion yuan (+22.7%) and 15.01 billion yuan (+7.0%), respectively [2] - By brand, FY25 revenue for Bosideng, Xuezhongfei, and Bingjie was 18.48 billion yuan (+10.1%), 2.21 billion yuan (+9.2%), and 0.13 billion yuan (-12.9%) [2] - The company’s direct sales and wholesale revenue for down jackets were 15.09 billion yuan (+5.2%) and 5.72 billion yuan (+24.3%), respectively [2] OEM and Other Business Insights - The OEM business grew significantly, with revenue of 3.37 billion yuan (+26.4%), while the high-end women's wear segment faced a decline, generating 0.65 billion yuan (-20.6%) [3] - The company experienced a goodwill impairment of 170 million yuan in the women's wear segment [3] Profitability and Efficiency - The overall gross margin for FY25 was 57.3%, down 2.3 percentage points, primarily due to declines in the gross margins of the brand down jackets and women's wear [3] - The operating profit margin for the down jacket business was 23.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, aided by effective cost control [3] - The company’s operating profit margin for FY25 was 19.2% (+0.2 percentage points), with a net profit margin of 13.6% (+0.3 percentage points) [3] Inventory and Future Outlook - As of FY25, the company’s inventory stood at 3.95 billion yuan (+23.6%), with an inventory turnover period of 118 days (+3 days) [4] - For FY26, the main brand will focus on down jacket categories and enhance competitive advantages, with expectations for steady growth in the OEM business and improvements in the performance of sub-brands [4] - Revenue projections for FY26 to FY28 are 28.53 billion yuan, 31.22 billion yuan, and 34.08 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 3.92 billion yuan, 4.34 billion yuan, and 4.80 billion yuan [4]