市场分析： ICE原糖03合约上涨8个点，收于14.85美分/磅；伦敦白糖03合约上涨1.5美元，收于425.6美元/吨。ISO11 月供需预估显示，2025/26榨季全球糖市将供应过剩163万吨，较8月更宽松。10月下半月，巴西中南部 双周产糖量为206.8万吨，市场以充分计价巴西丰产。印度公布新榨季首个双周数据，产糖量为105万 吨，高于去年同期的71万吨，北半球开榨初期相对顺利，增产预期转现实，基本面宽松，原糖在14.5至 15美分之间震荡，关注北半球增产预期差。 （来源：沐甜科技） 来源：沐甜科技 产业动态 1、美国：美国2025/26榨季食糖总产量预计为931.9万短吨；其中，甜菜糖产量为521.1万短吨；甘蔗糖 产量为410.8万短吨；食糖库存/消费比预估为15%。 2、印度：截至11月19日，2025/26榨季印度马哈拉施特拉邦已有147家糖厂开榨生产。甘蔗入榨量为 1172.7万吨，产糖量为86.81万吨。 郑糖01合约夜盘上涨7元/吨，收于5377元/吨。宏观方面，12月是否降息的题材反复摇摆。今天凌晨， 美联储理事沃勒主张在12月降息，市场风偏提高，或带动糖市。现货方面，广西集团新糖报价5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market is facing a large supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, with the expected increase in sugar production in India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, intensifying concerns about oversupply. ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.11 cents, or 0.80%, to settle at 14.11 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out-of-quota raw sugar in October is 175,000 tons, with the import volume expected to decrease month-on-month. Additionally, recent news about syrups and premixes provides some support. However, the loose supply-demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,448 yuan/ton, with a net increase of 4,955; the main contract position is 372,447 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,422; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is -60,088 hands, a decrease of 6,371 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 1,586. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,966 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 118. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 119; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,750 yuan/ton [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,660 yuan/ton; the spot price in Nanning is 5,750 yuan/ton; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,720 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugarcane planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 1,116.21 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 835.09 million tons, a decrease of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2] 3.4 Industrial Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,596 yuan/ton, an increase of 93; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 94. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 502 yuan/ton, an increase of 121; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 541 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2] 3.6 Options Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options for sugar is 8.15%, an increase of 1.41%; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options for sugar is 8.22%, an increase of 1.47%. The 20-day historical volatility of sugar is 7.93%, an increase of 0.36%; the 60-day historical volatility is 6.96%, an increase of 0.14% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 31, the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan Province reached 2.3115 million tons, compared with 1.9991 million tons in the same period last year. The sugar sales rate was 95.57% (98.38% in the same period last year). In October, the single-month sugar sales in Yunnan were 97,500 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons year-on-year. ICE raw sugar futures fell to a five-year low on Wednesday [2]

白糖产业日报 2025-11-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) -40 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 5441 | | 367492 | -1330 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) -10 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | 7422 | | -53717 | -3869 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 0 | 1586 | | | | | | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ 51 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ 吨) 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 4057 | | 4122 | 51 | | 现货市场 | 66 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5139 | | 5225 | 67 | | | /吨) 现货价:白砂糖:昆明(日,元/吨) -20 现货价:白砂糖:南宁(日,元/吨) /吨) | 5660 | | 5700 ...

Group 1 - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 44.5 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 45.9 million tons in April [1] - Brazil's sugarcane production for the same season is expected to be 668.8 million tons, slightly up from the April estimate of 663.4 million tons [1] - Pakistan's TCP has preliminarily purchased 30,000 tons of white sugar in a recent international tender for 200,000 tons [1] Group 2 - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 15,316 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] - International sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to increased supply from Brazil, while domestic sugar prices are supported by high production and sales rates [3] - Domestic sugar prices may face downward pressure from increasing import sugar, as observed in recent trading activities [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase, and the short - term tightness in the trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements influenced by phased production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - Domestically, the sales and production speed is fast, and inventory reduction is ahead of schedule. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap has become the focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it is expected to support sugar prices. However, due to the weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. - The decline in Brazil's sugar production year - on - year has raised market concerns, but it has already been priced in the market. Considering the expected loose global sugar supply - demand situation, raw sugar is expected to trade in a range in the short term. In the domestic market, the inventory reduction of domestic sugar is progressing well, and inventory pressure is limited. Affected by the international market, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,804, down 63 or 1.07%, with a trading volume of 234,894 (an increase of 74,893) and an open interest of 310,585 (a decrease of 33,554); SR01 closed at 5,701, down 74 or 1.28%, with a trading volume of 21,005 (an increase of 3,812) and an open interest of 45,235 (an increase of 693); SR05 closed at 5,615, down 47 or 0.83%, with a trading volume of 196 (an increase of 49) and an open interest of 458 (an increase of 78) [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 6,120, 5,905, 6,320, 6,050, 6,175, 6,135, and 6,420 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 316, 101, 516, 246, 371, 331, and 616 [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The SR5 - SR01 spread was - 86 (up 27), the SR09 - SR5 spread was 189 (down 16), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was 103 (up 11) [5]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of - 0.2, and a freight of 38, the in - quota price was 4,474, the out - of - quota price was 5,699, the spread with Liuzhou was 421, the spread with Rizhao was 436, and the spread with the futures market was 105; for Thai imports, with an ICE主力 price of 16.56, a premium of 0.9, and a freight of 18, the in - quota price was 4,525, the out - of - quota price was 5,766, the spread with Liuzhou was 354, the spread with Rizhao was 369, and the spread with the futures market was 38 [5]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **International Market**: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to accumulate, and the short - term tight trade flow will ease. Raw sugar is expected to trade in a range, with short - term price movements affected by production data. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual increase in output [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The fast sales and production speed and pre - emptive inventory reduction, along with the tightening of syrup import policies, make the filling of the production - demand gap a focus. As imported sugar has not entered the domestic market in large quantities, it will support sugar prices. However, due to weak raw sugar prices and falling imported sugar prices, the upside potential of sugar prices is limited, and sugar prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade slightly stronger in a range, but the upside potential is limited. Long positions are recommended to gradually take profits and exit [11]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12]. - **Options**: Sell put options [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures showing various data such as regional monthly inventories, new industrial inventories, cumulative sales - to - production ratios of domestic sugar, spot prices, spot price spreads, basis, and futures spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [14][18][23][27][29][32]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar market's expected bumper harvest in the new season puts pressure on sugar prices [6] - Internationally, Brazil's increased sugar - making ratio and sugar production in the new season drag down the market, but low inventory and tight short - term trade flow support international sugar prices. The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate. Domestically, the fast production and sales speed and early inventory reduction lead to the Zhengzhou sugar price following the cost of sugar sources to fill the gap. The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][4] - The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend, while the Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the raw sugar due to high production - sales ratio and low inventory [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Internationally, Brazil's sugar - making ratio and sugar production in the new season are higher than last year, dragging down the market. Low inventory and tight short - term trade flow support international sugar prices. The raw sugar is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress. Domestically, the production and sales speed is fast, and inventory reduction is advanced. With the tightening of syrup import policies, how to fill the production - demand gap becomes the focus. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the cost of sugar sources to fill the gap. The previous market concerns about drought in Guangxi have cooled down after recent rainfall, and attention should be paid to the growth of sugarcane in the new season [3] Logic Analysis - The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend. The current sugar - making ratio is at a relatively high level in the same period. Considering the buying support below, the raw sugar is expected to fluctuate. In contrast, the high production - sales ratio and low inventory in China drive the Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than the raw sugar. The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the weather in the main production area of Guangxi [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Take a wait - and - see attitude towards fluctuations - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Out - of - the - money ratio spread options [4] 2. Core Logic Analysis - The expected bumper harvest in the global sugar market in the new season puts pressure on sugar prices. The raw sugar is affected by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and shows a weak trend, while the Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than the raw sugar due to high production - sales ratio and low inventory [4][6] 3. Weekly Data Tracking Global Sugar Production Data - Brazil: In the 25/26 season as of the first half of April, sugar production increased slightly year - on - year. In April, exports decreased year - on - year but were still at a high level. As of the week of May 7, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also increased slightly [9][19][21] - India: In the 24/25 season, sugar factory production is approaching the end. The All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) expects the 2024/25 season's sugar production to decline by 19% to 25.8 million tons. As of April 30, 2025, the number of sugar factories in production decreased, and sugar production decreased by 18.33% year - on - year [22][24] - Thailand: As of April 1, 2025, Thailand has basically completed the sugar harvest. Cumulative sugar production increased by 15% year - on - year. Exports in January increased by 16.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative exports from October last year to January this year were the lowest in the past three seasons. The weakening demand from Indonesia suppresses the premium of Thai sugar. Due to the sharp decline in cassava prices, farmers are more inclined to plant sugarcane, and it is expected that Thailand's sugar production may reach a seven - year high in the 2025/26 season [28] Domestic Sugar Production and Sales Data - As of the end of April in the 2024/25 season, except for 15 sugar factories in Yunnan, other sugar factories in China have stopped production. Cumulative sugar production increased by 11.59% year - on - year, cumulative sales increased by 26.07% year - on - year, the sales ratio accelerated by 7.49% year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased by 344,800 tons year - on - year. In April, single - month production decreased by 5.65% year - on - year, and sales increased by 23.40% year - on - year, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 12 seasons [29] Import Data - Imported sugar: In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 59,300 tons. From January to March 2025, China imported 149,200 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 1.054 million tons, a decline of 87.60%. As of March in the 2024/25 season, China imported 1.6109 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4522 million tons, a decline of 47.41% [31] - Imported syrup & pre - mixed powder: As of March 2025, the cumulative import was 130,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 195,500 tons, a decline of 60.02% [32]