韩国央行周四表示，美国对韩国出口产品征收15%的全面关税，与先前双边贸易协定中达成的零关税政 策形成鲜明对比，韩国经济将遭受重大冲击。 韩国央行表示，由于关税导致美国通胀加剧，金融状况也将进一步收紧，这促使美联储推迟降息。这可 能会延长国内信贷紧张的局面，从而对投资和消费造成负面影响。 韩国央行表示，不确定性加剧使得经济更加脆弱，这抑制了家庭消费和企业投资。企业在贸易前景变得 更加明朗之前会保持观望态度。 虽然关税宽限期和企业承担部分成本缓解了短期冲击，但韩国央行表示，其影响可能会加剧。长期来 看，韩国将面临供应链中断、本土产业空心化以及全球贸易格局变化的风险，这些风险可能会永久性地 重塑韩国经济。 美国和韩国于7月底达成了一项贸易协议，该协议使韩国免受美国总统唐纳德.特朗普威胁的25%关税， 同时韩国承诺向美国投资3500亿美元。此外，韩国私营部门对美国的投资也将达到约1500亿美元。 韩国央行在报告中写道："与关税计划一同被讨论的美国投资基金也值得密切关注。尽管细节尚不确 定，但关税加上加大对美国本土投资的力度，有可能掏空韩国产业，并可能带来就业岗位减少和人才流 失等连锁反应。" 周四早些时候，韩国央行将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, stated that the central bank will not maintain high interest rates merely as a precautionary measure, indicating a willingness to adjust policies in response to significant economic shocks [1] Group 1 - The RBA has room for policy adjustments if a severe economic shock occurs, suggesting flexibility in monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The escalating border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have severely impacted various sectors, leading to a decline in the quality of life for residents [1][3] - Cambodia has cut off electricity supply from Thailand to Poipet, opting for a new power line from Vietnam, which has resulted in unstable electricity and increased demand for generators [1] - Fuel prices in Cambodia have surged, with gasoline reaching 48 to 50 Thai Baht per liter and diesel at 38 to 40 Thai Baht, compared to Thailand's prices of 41 Baht for gasoline and 32 Baht for diesel [1] Group 2 - The border closure has led to a decrease in investor confidence in Thailand's border provinces, with a reported decline in product sales affecting businesses and manufacturing [3] - Cambodia has banned the import of Thai agricultural products, which, while only accounting for 5% to 10% of Thailand's mangosteen exports, has raised concerns among Thai farmers [3] - The construction sector in Thailand is at risk due to potential restrictions on the movement of approximately 16,000 Cambodian workers [3] Group 3 - The tightening of border policies has resulted in a significant drop in casino patronage in Poipet, where 80% of customers are Thai, impacting the local gambling economy [3] - The stay duration for citizens of both countries has been reduced to 7 days, with Cambodia advising its citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Thailand [4] - Since early June, the number of Cambodian tourists visiting Thailand has decreased by 43%, leading to a drop in hotel occupancy rates in Thailand [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, emphasizes that it cannot be assumed that the inflationary pain caused by new economic shocks will dissipate quickly [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects concerns about persistent inflation in the UK economy [1] - The Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach in its monetary policy due to ongoing economic uncertainties [1] - The comments suggest that the central bank is preparing for a potentially prolonged period of inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Weidmann, indicated that the Eurozone may face negative economic shocks in the short term, followed by potential positive impacts in 2026 and 2027 [1] Economic Outlook - Short-term negative economic shocks are anticipated for the Eurozone [1] - Positive economic impacts are projected for the years 2026 and 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Food Crisis Report indicates that 295.3 million people in 53 countries will face severe food insecurity in 2024, an increase of 13.7 million from 2023, marking the sixth consecutive year of growth [1] - The primary drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition globally remain conflicts, economic shocks, extreme weather, and forced displacement, which have devastating impacts on already vulnerable regions [1] Group 1: Causes of Food Insecurity - Conflicts are the leading cause of severe food insecurity, affecting approximately 140 million people in 20 countries and regions, with famine reported in Sudan and critical situations in Gaza, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali [1] - Economic shocks, including inflation and currency devaluation, have led 15 countries into hunger, impacting around 59.4 million people, with significant crises in Afghanistan, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen [1] - Extreme weather events, particularly those related to the El Niño phenomenon, have caused food crises in 18 countries, affecting over 96 million people, with severe impacts noted in Southern Africa, South Asia, and the Horn of Africa [1] Group 2: Humanitarian Funding Outlook - The report forecasts a significant reduction in global humanitarian funding for food and nutrition by 2025, suggesting that the issue of global hunger will persist [2]