Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, silver has a basis for rising. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground [5][38][39]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Silver's Breakthrough - On June 5th, after the Asian market closed, silver prices soared. New York silver broke through the $35 high and reached the $36 mark, a new high in the past year. The Shanghai silver futures opened higher at 8,700 yuan/kg. Technically, silver prices rose with increasing positions, and after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, capital attention quickly increased. The open interest of Shanghai silver futures rose from 870,000 lots to 1,070,000 lots within 5 trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival [8]. - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. Both copper and crude oil, representing international demand, and the black commodity sector, representing domestic demand, showed significant increases on that day [11][38]. - Since June, the macroeconomic situation has clearly improved, showing signs of an economic upward trend. Global stock markets have continued to rise, and the commodity market has also shown a recovery trend. The domestic cultural commodity index has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the overseas CRB index has also trended upwards. From a PMI perspective, China's manufacturing PMI and new order index both improved month-on-month in May; although the US ISM manufacturing PMI declined month-on-month in May, the new order index improved month-on-month; the eurozone was relatively optimistic, with the manufacturing PMI rising continuously below the boom-bust line in the first half of the year [13]. 2. Restoration of the Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise in silver prices. Looking at a longer period, the gold-silver ratio began to decline as gold prices fell in late April, indicating a cooling of market risk aversion demand. Before June, the decline in the gold-silver ratio was due to the fall in gold prices, while in early June, it was due to the rise in silver prices [18]. - Historically, the gold-silver ratio has fluctuated between 40 and 80 since the 20th century, with the central value shifting upwards after 2020. This is mainly due to the increase in gold prices driven by rising risk aversion demand due to frequent geopolitical events. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, a high gold-silver ratio means that gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued, but from a fundamental perspective, it also has rationality [25]. 3. Learning from History - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. Excluding the heavily manipulated situation in 1980, the market conditions after the 2010 - 2011 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2020 global COVID-19 pandemic can be used as references [29]. - Silver's significant price increases are mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective. During the same period, crude oil and copper prices also rose synchronously [29][32][38]. 4. The Role of Industry in Silver - The correlation between silver and gold is relatively stable, generally above 0.7, indicating that the common variables between gold and silver account for a relatively stable proportion in the long term. The individual variables of silver have a relatively small impact on its price in both the long and short term [36]. - The correlation between silver and copper fluctuates greatly. Before 2019, the correlation between silver and copper declined year by year, and after 2019, it continued to rise. The correlation between gold and copper also shows a similar trend, but the overall correlation is relatively low [36]. - The manifestation of silver's industrial demand largely depends on the macroeconomy. The correlation between copper and silver mainly depends on the strength of the macroeconomy. When the macroeconomy has a significant impact on industrial demand, the two generally show the same direction of fluctuation, especially during an economic recovery [36]. 5. Conclusion - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground. Currently, after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, the attention on silver has rapidly increased, and its short-term speculative attribute is relatively strong. One can follow the trend and manage risks well [5][38][39].

二 〇 二 四 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 碳酸锂：企业发布复产研究公告，成本腰斩， 偏弱运行 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 套保：卖出套保 30%。 报告导读： 本周价格走势：破新低 碳酸锂 LC2507 合约回落，期间减仓企稳，尔后加仓下跌。2507 合约收于 61800 元/吨，周环比下跌 1220 元/吨，2509 合约收于 63200 元/吨，周环比下跌 1100 元/吨，现货周环比下跌 750 元/吨为 64500 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2505 合约）走强 470 元/吨至 2700 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价+530 元/吨， 周环比走强 20 元/吨。2507-2509 合约价差-1400 元/吨，环比-120 元/吨。 供需基本面：企业发布复产研究公告，成本腰斩 供应：锂矿价格下跌斜率进一步陡峭，带来锂盐成本支撑回落。根据澳大利亚前期停产矿山 Finniss 的复产公告，其指出该矿山单位运营成本已优化至 690–785 澳元/吨（FOB），折算为 444-504 美元/吨 （停产前成本在 1100 美元/ ...