投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-15 ⻩⾦短时震荡，关注⽩银补涨持续性 ⽇内⻩⾦价格震荡运⾏，⽩银继上周⼤幅拉涨后，在40美元关⼝暂时受 阻。本周关注美国通胀及零售数据变动，以及带来的对美联储降息预期的 影响。短期⻩⾦预计维持区间内震荡偏强的⾛势。中⻓期看多观点不变。 ⽩银短期获得更⼤弹性，关注40美元整数关⼝的压⼒，极端情况来看， 若⾦银⽐值回落⾄近两年的区间下沿，对应COMEX⽩银上⽅或触及45美 元⼀线。 重点资讯： 1）当地时间7月13日，美国总统特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威尔 应该辞职。美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特也表示，若有正当理由，特朗普 有权解雇鲍威尔。7月14日，哈塞特再次发声，称美联储在关税问题 上"非常错误"。目前一场围绕美联储总部装修项目的争议，正演变 为特朗普与鲍威尔之间的最新交锋。美联储罕见通过官网新增的" 常见问题"页面，为其25亿美元总部装修项目进行辩护，直接回击特 朗普政府的一系列批评指控。 2）美联储哈玛克表示，尚未达到通胀目标，保持货币政策的收紧仍 然非常重要。哈玛克以开放的心态参加每一次美联储会议，并认为经 济非常 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 · 2025 年 7 月 14 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 美关税预期升温，金价强势运行 核心观点 上周海外金价跌破 3300 美元后反弹，国内沪金跌破 770 元后反 弹。7 月 9 日为此前美国和其他国家延期 90 天关税的截至日期，市场 关税预期有所上升，利好金价。技术上，期价企稳回升，再度站上 3300 美元和 60 日均线，预计维持强势运行。白银上周增仓上行明 显，突破前期高位，金银比值随之下行。白银上行是贵金属和有色共 振的结果，短期期价增仓上行明显，突破前期高位，上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，二季度以 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold returned to the $3350 mark, and Shanghai gold rose above 775 yuan. The expectation of US tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the gold price. However, the better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data reduced the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the probability of three rate cuts this year decreased significantly, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price is expected to remain under pressure. [3][29] - In the medium to long term, since the relaxation of US tariff policies, market risk appetite has increased, and the gold price has declined significantly. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference for long - term upward movement. After breaking below it, the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase. The gold price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken. [3][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: The report mentions the linkage between the US dollar index and gold price but does not elaborate on the specific weekly trend [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From June 27th to July 3rd, COMEX gold increased by 1.52%, COMEX silver by 2.42%, SHFE gold主力 by 1.94%, and SHFE silver主力 by 1.73%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.04%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.02, the S&P 500 increased by 1.72%, and the US crude oil continuous increased by 3.24%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.88%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.21%. SPDR gold ETF decreased by 7.16, and iShare gold ETF increased by 0.32 [8]. 3.2 Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Gold Price Under Pressure - In the first half of the week, the expectation of tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, and the gold price oscillated upwards. In the second half of the week, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data supported the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the US dollar index rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure. The high market risk preference last week, with the non - farm payrolls data having little impact on it, also put pressure on the gold price as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs [10][13]. 3.3 Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long non - commercial positions on COMEX have continued to rise. As of June 24th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,509 contracts, short positions increased by 1,135 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb. In early June, silver prices rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both price and volume rising. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, market attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to remain strong [18]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also declined from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious metal attribute and short - term catch - up growth. After breaking through the one - year oscillation high, short - term market attention has increased, and it has strong upward momentum. The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [22]. - Since late June, the yield spread has continued to strengthen, mainly due to the significant decline in the near - end yield caused by expected interest rate cuts. Usually, the near - end US Treasury yield depends on the benchmark interest rate, while the long - end is more related to long - term economic conditions [24]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the gold price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term and maintain a weak trend in the medium to long term, while the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken [29].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中东局势紧张，避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures experienced a significant surge, with New York silver prices breaking through $35 per ounce and quickly rising to $36 per ounce, marking a nearly one-year high [1] - The increase in silver holdings was notable, with positions rising from 870,000 contracts to 1,040,000 contracts within just five trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival [1] - The market's attention on silver has intensified as it broke through the upper boundary of a year-long trading range, driven by increased trading volume [1] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio has reached historical highs, reflecting heightened market risk aversion, but has begun to decline as silver prices rise, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] - The recent recovery in industrial demand and overall commodity market improvement are key factors driving silver's upward movement [2] - Silver's price increase is seen as a response to both its precious metal attributes and its industrial metal characteristics, particularly in the context of post-crisis recovery phases [3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, supported by a weak dollar index and geopolitical tensions, which bolster gold's upward trend and, consequently, silver's financial attributes [4] - The commodity market shows signs of recovery, with expectations for continued trading around economic recovery themes in the third quarter [4] - Investors are advised to capitalize on the current bullish sentiment in silver while maintaining effective risk management strategies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, silver has a basis for rising. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground [5][38][39]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Silver's Breakthrough - On June 5th, after the Asian market closed, silver prices soared. New York silver broke through the $35 high and reached the $36 mark, a new high in the past year. The Shanghai silver futures opened higher at 8,700 yuan/kg. Technically, silver prices rose with increasing positions, and after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, capital attention quickly increased. The open interest of Shanghai silver futures rose from 870,000 lots to 1,070,000 lots within 5 trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival [8]. - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. Both copper and crude oil, representing international demand, and the black commodity sector, representing domestic demand, showed significant increases on that day [11][38]. - Since June, the macroeconomic situation has clearly improved, showing signs of an economic upward trend. Global stock markets have continued to rise, and the commodity market has also shown a recovery trend. The domestic cultural commodity index has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the overseas CRB index has also trended upwards. From a PMI perspective, China's manufacturing PMI and new order index both improved month-on-month in May; although the US ISM manufacturing PMI declined month-on-month in May, the new order index improved month-on-month; the eurozone was relatively optimistic, with the manufacturing PMI rising continuously below the boom-bust line in the first half of the year [13]. 2. Restoration of the Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise in silver prices. Looking at a longer period, the gold-silver ratio began to decline as gold prices fell in late April, indicating a cooling of market risk aversion demand. Before June, the decline in the gold-silver ratio was due to the fall in gold prices, while in early June, it was due to the rise in silver prices [18]. - Historically, the gold-silver ratio has fluctuated between 40 and 80 since the 20th century, with the central value shifting upwards after 2020. This is mainly due to the increase in gold prices driven by rising risk aversion demand due to frequent geopolitical events. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, a high gold-silver ratio means that gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued, but from a fundamental perspective, it also has rationality [25]. 3. Learning from History - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. Excluding the heavily manipulated situation in 1980, the market conditions after the 2010 - 2011 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2020 global COVID-19 pandemic can be used as references [29]. - Silver's significant price increases are mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective. During the same period, crude oil and copper prices also rose synchronously [29][32][38]. 4. The Role of Industry in Silver - The correlation between silver and gold is relatively stable, generally above 0.7, indicating that the common variables between gold and silver account for a relatively stable proportion in the long term. The individual variables of silver have a relatively small impact on its price in both the long and short term [36]. - The correlation between silver and copper fluctuates greatly. Before 2019, the correlation between silver and copper declined year by year, and after 2019, it continued to rise. The correlation between gold and copper also shows a similar trend, but the overall correlation is relatively low [36]. - The manifestation of silver's industrial demand largely depends on the macroeconomy. The correlation between copper and silver mainly depends on the strength of the macroeconomy. When the macroeconomy has a significant impact on industrial demand, the two generally show the same direction of fluctuation, especially during an economic recovery [36]. 5. Conclusion - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground. Currently, after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, the attention on silver has rapidly increased, and its short-term speculative attribute is relatively strong. One can follow the trend and manage risks well [5][38][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日下午市场风险偏好下降，黄金企稳回升，夜盘再度跳水。中美在英会议持续，市场对 谈判结果的不确定性导致金价上下波动。我们认为在 5 月 12 日中美日内瓦会议后，整体中美关系趋 于缓和，金价承压。此外，金银比值 6 月出现明显下行，这是由于白银上涨导致的。短期金价震荡偏 弱运行，白银向上突破后上行动能较强，预计金银比值持续走弱。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the weak US non - farm payroll data but unexpected growth in employment wages have cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which has pressured precious metals. However, the LA riots caused by ICE's arrest of illegal immigrants and the short - term improvement in international trade situation have provided support for precious metals. The inflow of investment funds into the silver market has driven up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are still weak, so the purely capital - driven rise may not be sustainable. Gold's safe - haven demand has been greatly boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - In the mid - term, Trump's equal - tariff measures in April triggered a global financial market tsunami and accelerated the restructuring of the global economic and trade system. Multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to soar. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The factors driving the gold price up in the long and medium terms will continue to exist, but the short - term surge in the gold price and its high price - to - earnings ratio also mean significantly increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. Traders with a short - position mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The weak US non - farm payroll data and unexpected wage growth cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pressuring precious metals. The LA riots and short - term improvement in international trade situation supported precious metals. Investment funds flowed into the silver market, driving up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are weak. Gold's safe - haven demand was boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend [4]. - **Mid - term Market**: Trump's equal - tariff measures in April drove the gold price to soar. After a high - level correction, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price up will continue to exist, but the short - term surge and high price - to - earnings ratio lead to increased volatility. Investment suggestions are provided for different types of traders [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US California National Guard was deployed to LA to quell protests over the arrest of illegal immigrants, leading to conflicts with protesters. There are disputes between Trump and the California governor over this deployment [18]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that it is reviewing rare - earth related export license applications, and has approved a certain number of compliant applications and will continue to strengthen the approval work. Some temporary export licenses have been issued to rare - earth suppliers of certain US companies [18]. - US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, with slow employment growth but steady wage increases. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has affected corporate planning, and the financial market has adjusted its bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts [19]. - The US has suspended the licenses of nuclear equipment suppliers to sell products to Chinese nuclear power plants [19]. - The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on more than 30 individuals and entities related to Iran for money - laundering through the global financial system [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，金价冲高回 落，上方阻力较大 | | 镍 | 2507 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍触底回升 | 说明： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点 ...