Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - Short - term, gold is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend within a range, and the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Silver has gained greater short - term elasticity, but mid - term elasticity should be viewed with caution while maintaining a bullish trend view [1][3]. - The report suggests paying attention to US inflation and retail data changes this week and their impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1][3]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Key Information - Trump called for Fed Chair Powell to resign, and there is a dispute between Trump and Powell over the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project. The Fed defended the project on its website [2]. - Fed's Harker said the inflation target has not been reached, keeping monetary policy tight is important, and there is no urgent need for a rate cut. He also mentioned the impact of tariffs and economic uncertainties [2]. Price Logic - Gold price oscillated during the day, and silver was temporarily blocked at the $40 mark after a sharp rise last week, showing a high - level volatile trend. The extension of the negotiation period and the TACO trading direction did not significantly impact market risk appetite [3]. - From the perspective of positions and fundamentals, COMEX positions declined, and global visible inventories and domestic out - warehouse volumes do not indicate an upward trend. There are three mid - term logics suppressing silver's elasticity, and they are difficult to reverse [3]. Outlook - Weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450]. COMEX silver faces pressure at the $40 mark, and in extreme cases, if the gold - silver ratio falls to the lower limit of the past two years, COMEX silver may reach $45 [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, overseas gold prices rebounded after falling below $3300, and domestic Shanghai gold rebounded after falling below 770 yuan. The market's tariff expectations increased, which is favorable for gold prices. Technically, the futures price stabilized and recovered, standing above $3300 and the 60 - day moving average again, and is expected to maintain a strong operation. Silver increased in position and rose significantly last week, breaking through the previous high, and the gold - silver ratio declined accordingly. Silver's upward movement is the result of the resonance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, with strong upward momentum. In the long - term, since the relaxation of the US tariff policy, the risk appetite of the market has recovered, the gold price has declined significantly under pressure, and the gold - silver ratio has continued to weaken. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference indicator for long - term upward movement, and the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase after the price falls below it [3][25] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold, but no specific written summary of the weekly trend is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 11 | July 3 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,370.30 | $3,336.00 | 1.03% | | COMEX Silver | $39.08 | $37.04 | 5.49% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 773.56 yuan | 781.28 yuan | - 0.99% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,040.00 yuan | 8,944.00 yuan | 1.07% | | US Dollar Index | 97.86 | 97.12 | 0.76% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.17 | 0.05% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 2.06 | 2.02 | 0.04 | | S&P 500 | 6,259.75 | 6,279.35 | - 0.31% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $68.75 | $67.18 | 2.34% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 86.25 | 90.06 | - 4.23% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 85.57 | 87.35 | - 2.04% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 947.64 | 947.66 | - 0.02 | | iShare Gold ETF | 443.06 | 442.24 | 0.82 | [8] 2. Rising US Tariff Expectations Favorable for Gold Prices - July 9 was the deadline for the 90 - day tariff extension between the US and other countries, and the market's tariff expectations increased, which is favorable for gold prices. On July 12, US President Trump announced that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. The upward trend of the three major US stock indexes slowed down last week, showing high - level fluctuations, which is largely affected by the tariff policy [10][12] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the non - commercial long net position of COMEX has continued to recover. As of July 8, the long position changed by 3,054 contracts, the short position changed by 2,066 contracts, and the long net position changed by 988 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness. Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise. In early June, silver rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both volume and price increasing. After silver broke through the high point in May 2024, the attention of funds increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength. The gold - silver ratio has been in a weak operation, and silver is expected to continue its upward trend due to the resonance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals [14][19] 4. Conclusion - The conclusions are consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that gold prices are expected to maintain a strong operation in the short - term, while in the long - term, they are under pressure and the gold - silver ratio continues to weaken [25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold returned to the $3350 mark, and Shanghai gold rose above 775 yuan. The expectation of US tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, pushing up the gold price. However, the better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data reduced the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the probability of three rate cuts this year decreased significantly, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price is expected to remain under pressure. [3][29] - In the medium to long term, since the relaxation of US tariff policies, market risk appetite has increased, and the gold price has declined significantly. Technically, the 60 - day moving average can be used as a reference for long - term upward movement. After breaking below it, the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions may increase. The gold price is expected to maintain a weak trend, and the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken. [3][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Trend**: The report mentions the linkage between the US dollar index and gold price but does not elaborate on the specific weekly trend [7]. - **Indicator Changes**: From June 27th to July 3rd, COMEX gold increased by 1.52%, COMEX silver by 2.42%, SHFE gold主力 by 1.94%, and SHFE silver主力 by 1.73%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.04%. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.02, the S&P 500 increased by 1.72%, and the US crude oil continuous increased by 3.24%. The COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.88%, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio increased by 0.21%. SPDR gold ETF decreased by 7.16, and iShare gold ETF increased by 0.32 [8]. 3.2 Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Gold Price Under Pressure - In the first half of the week, the expectation of tariffs and interest rate cuts led to a continuous decline in the US dollar index, and the gold price oscillated upwards. In the second half of the week, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data supported the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the US dollar index rebounded, and the gold price was under pressure. The high market risk preference last week, with the non - farm payrolls data having little impact on it, also put pressure on the gold price as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs [10][13]. 3.3 Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long non - commercial positions on COMEX have continued to rise. As of June 24th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,509 contracts, short positions increased by 1,135 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 5,644 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16]. - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to climb. In early June, silver prices rose significantly, and the corresponding ETFs increased their positions significantly, with both price and volume rising. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, market attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to remain strong [18]. - Since late April, the gold price has risen and then fallen, and the gold - silver ratio has also declined from a high level. Silver has benefited from its precious metal attribute and short - term catch - up growth. After breaking through the one - year oscillation high, short - term market attention has increased, and it has strong upward momentum. The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [22]. - Since late June, the yield spread has continued to strengthen, mainly due to the significant decline in the near - end yield caused by expected interest rate cuts. Usually, the near - end US Treasury yield depends on the benchmark interest rate, while the long - end is more related to long - term economic conditions [24]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the gold price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term and maintain a weak trend in the medium to long term, while the gold - silver ratio may continue to weaken [29].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views - Gold is expected to be short - term bearish, with a short - term decline, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation on the weaker side. The main factors include the Fed's interest rate decision, market sentiment on the Israel - Iran situation, and the expected decline in the gold - silver ratio [1][3]. - Nickel is also short - term bearish, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday oscillations on the weaker side. Influencing factors involve the situation of the upstream mining supply, downstream stainless - steel operation, and technical price trends [1][5]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term: Expected to rise; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation on the weaker side; Overall view: Short - term bearish. The core logic is that after the Fed's June interest - rate decision to keep rates unchanged and signal two 50 - basis - point cuts this year, the gold price declined. The market is optimistic about the Israel - Iran situation, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to decline [1][3]. Nickel - Short - term: Oscillation; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation on the weaker side; Overall view: Short - term bearish. The upstream mining price remains strong due to factors like rainfall in the Philippines and slow PKRB approval in Indonesia. The downstream stainless - steel is weak, squeezing the smelter's profit. Technically, the price has strong downward momentum after breaking below 120,000 yuan, but the short - term main contract price has rebounded from the bottom [1][5].

Group 1 - Silver futures experienced a significant surge, with New York silver prices breaking through $35 per ounce and quickly rising to $36 per ounce, marking a nearly one-year high [1] - The increase in silver holdings was notable, with positions rising from 870,000 contracts to 1,040,000 contracts within just five trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival [1] - The market's attention on silver has intensified as it broke through the upper boundary of a year-long trading range, driven by increased trading volume [1] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio has reached historical highs, reflecting heightened market risk aversion, but has begun to decline as silver prices rise, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] - The recent recovery in industrial demand and overall commodity market improvement are key factors driving silver's upward movement [2] - Silver's price increase is seen as a response to both its precious metal attributes and its industrial metal characteristics, particularly in the context of post-crisis recovery phases [3] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for silver remains positive, supported by a weak dollar index and geopolitical tensions, which bolster gold's upward trend and, consequently, silver's financial attributes [4] - The commodity market shows signs of recovery, with expectations for continued trading around economic recovery themes in the third quarter [4] - Investors are advised to capitalize on the current bullish sentiment in silver while maintaining effective risk management strategies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, silver has a basis for rising. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground [5][38][39]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Silver's Breakthrough - On June 5th, after the Asian market closed, silver prices soared. New York silver broke through the $35 high and reached the $36 mark, a new high in the past year. The Shanghai silver futures opened higher at 8,700 yuan/kg. Technically, silver prices rose with increasing positions, and after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, capital attention quickly increased. The open interest of Shanghai silver futures rose from 870,000 lots to 1,070,000 lots within 5 trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival [8]. - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. Both copper and crude oil, representing international demand, and the black commodity sector, representing domestic demand, showed significant increases on that day [11][38]. - Since June, the macroeconomic situation has clearly improved, showing signs of an economic upward trend. Global stock markets have continued to rise, and the commodity market has also shown a recovery trend. The domestic cultural commodity index has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the overseas CRB index has also trended upwards. From a PMI perspective, China's manufacturing PMI and new order index both improved month-on-month in May; although the US ISM manufacturing PMI declined month-on-month in May, the new order index improved month-on-month; the eurozone was relatively optimistic, with the manufacturing PMI rising continuously below the boom-bust line in the first half of the year [13]. 2. Restoration of the Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise in silver prices. Looking at a longer period, the gold-silver ratio began to decline as gold prices fell in late April, indicating a cooling of market risk aversion demand. Before June, the decline in the gold-silver ratio was due to the fall in gold prices, while in early June, it was due to the rise in silver prices [18]. - Historically, the gold-silver ratio has fluctuated between 40 and 80 since the 20th century, with the central value shifting upwards after 2020. This is mainly due to the increase in gold prices driven by rising risk aversion demand due to frequent geopolitical events. From a statistical arbitrage perspective, a high gold-silver ratio means that gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued, but from a fundamental perspective, it also has rationality [25]. 3. Learning from History - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. Excluding the heavily manipulated situation in 1980, the market conditions after the 2010 - 2011 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2020 global COVID-19 pandemic can be used as references [29]. - Silver's significant price increases are mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective. During the same period, crude oil and copper prices also rose synchronously [29][32][38]. 4. The Role of Industry in Silver - The correlation between silver and gold is relatively stable, generally above 0.7, indicating that the common variables between gold and silver account for a relatively stable proportion in the long term. The individual variables of silver have a relatively small impact on its price in both the long and short term [36]. - The correlation between silver and copper fluctuates greatly. Before 2019, the correlation between silver and copper declined year by year, and after 2019, it continued to rise. The correlation between gold and copper also shows a similar trend, but the overall correlation is relatively low [36]. - The manifestation of silver's industrial demand largely depends on the macroeconomy. The correlation between copper and silver mainly depends on the strength of the macroeconomy. When the macroeconomy has a significant impact on industrial demand, the two generally show the same direction of fluctuation, especially during an economic recovery [36]. 5. Conclusion - Since the beginning of this year, the gold-silver ratio has continuously climbed to a historical high, providing a basis for silver to rise from a statistical arbitrage perspective. In early June, short-term industrial demand recovery expectations pushed silver to break through upwards. It broke through the one-year trading range high and reached a new high in the 21st century, attracting significant capital inflows [5][11][38]. - Historically, significant silver price increases often occur in the middle to late stages of a gold rally, usually after a crisis. This is mainly due to the resonance of precious metals and non-ferrous metals. After a crisis, industrial demand recovery and liquidity support drive silver prices up both from a financial and industrial attribute perspective [5][29][38]. - In the long term, against the backdrop of deglobalization and de-dollarization, the US dollar and US Treasury bonds remain weak, and the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, providing strong support for the precious metal attribute of silver. After the relaxation of US tariff policies in late April, the global market may follow an economic recovery logic in the third quarter. Benefiting from its industrial attribute, silver may continue to make up for lost ground. Currently, after breaking through the one-year trading range high and reaching a new high, the attention on silver has rapidly increased, and its short-term speculative attribute is relatively strong. One can follow the trend and manage risks well [5][38][39].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of gold and nickel are both in a volatile state, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile, and the reference view is to wait and see [1]. - For gold, due to the easing of Sino - US relations, the gold price is under pressure, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [1][3]. - For nickel, the upstream is strong and the downstream is weak, and the nickel price may run weakly after breaking through the key level [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: wait and see [1]. - **Driving Logic**: After the Sino - US Geneva meeting on May 12, Sino - US relations tend to ease, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold - silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise of silver, and it is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Nickel - **Price Trends**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: wait and see [1]. - **Driving Logic**: The upstream ore end is tight, the downstream demand is weak, the domestic nickel inventory is decreasing from a high level while the overseas inventory is rising. After the nickel price breaks below the 122,000 mark, the futures price may run weakly [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the weak US non - farm payroll data but unexpected growth in employment wages have cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, which has pressured precious metals. However, the LA riots caused by ICE's arrest of illegal immigrants and the short - term improvement in international trade situation have provided support for precious metals. The inflow of investment funds into the silver market has driven up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are still weak, so the purely capital - driven rise may not be sustainable. Gold's safe - haven demand has been greatly boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - In the mid - term, Trump's equal - tariff measures in April triggered a global financial market tsunami and accelerated the restructuring of the global economic and trade system. Multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to soar. Although the gold price has corrected from its high, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The factors driving the gold price up in the long and medium terms will continue to exist, but the short - term surge in the gold price and its high price - to - earnings ratio also mean significantly increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. Traders with a short - position mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The weak US non - farm payroll data and unexpected wage growth cooled the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pressuring precious metals. The LA riots and short - term improvement in international trade situation supported precious metals. Investment funds flowed into the silver market, driving up silver prices, but the mid - term growth of the global economy and silver's industrial demand are weak. Gold's safe - haven demand was boosted, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend [4]. - **Mid - term Market**: Trump's equal - tariff measures in April drove the gold price to soar. After a high - level correction, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving the gold price up will continue to exist, but the short - term surge and high price - to - earnings ratio lead to increased volatility. Investment suggestions are provided for different types of traders [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US California National Guard was deployed to LA to quell protests over the arrest of illegal immigrants, leading to conflicts with protesters. There are disputes between Trump and the California governor over this deployment [18]. - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that it is reviewing rare - earth related export license applications, and has approved a certain number of compliant applications and will continue to strengthen the approval work. Some temporary export licenses have been issued to rare - earth suppliers of certain US companies [18]. - US non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, with slow employment growth but steady wage increases. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has affected corporate planning, and the financial market has adjusted its bets on the Fed's interest rate cuts [19]. - The US has suspended the licenses of nuclear equipment suppliers to sell products to Chinese nuclear power plants [19]. - The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on more than 30 individuals and entities related to Iran for money - laundering through the global financial system [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Gold: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak; in the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the Sino - US relations tend to ease, causing the gold price to rise and then fall with significant upward resistance. Also, the decline in the gold - silver ratio since June indicates a cooling of market risk - aversion demand, and it is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to weaken [1][3]. - Nickel: In the short - term, it is expected to rise; in the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the macro - atmosphere has improved, which is beneficial to the nickel price. Although the industry has long - term pressure, it is neutral in the short - term. Technically, the nickel price has support at the 122,000 level and is expected to continue to rebound [1][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: Volatile and weak [1] - Medium - term view: Volatile [1] - Reference view: Wait and see [1] - Core logic: The gold - silver ratio declined significantly in June due to the rise of silver. The decline of the gold - silver ratio since late April indicates a cooling of market risk - aversion demand. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to weaken [3]. Nickel - Short - term view: Rise [1] - Medium - term view: Volatile [1] - Reference view: Bullish in the short - term [1] - Core logic: The nickel price was strongly volatile yesterday, with the main contract price oscillating between 122,000 - 123,000. The night - session price fell below 122,000 and then rebounded. The improved macro - atmosphere is beneficial to the nickel price. The industry has long - term pressure but is neutral in the short - term. Technically, there is support at the 122,000 level, and the price is expected to continue to rebound [5].