综合整治内卷式竞争
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锐财经|物价水平保持企稳态势
Ren Min Ri Bao Hai Wai Ban· 2025-12-12 01:52
"CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟说,食品 价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%,对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分 点。食品中,鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%,为连续下降9个月后首次转涨,对CPI同比的上 拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点;鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%;牛肉和羊肉价格分别上涨 6.2%和3.7%,涨幅均有扩大。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%,涨幅连续3个月保持在1% 以上。 "11月份,服务和扣除能源的工业消费品价格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%,分别影响CPI同比上涨约0.29个 百分点和0.53个百分点。其中,扩内需政策措施继续显效,家用器具和服装价格分别上涨4.9%和2.0%, 飞机票、家政服务和在外餐饮价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。金饰品价格涨幅扩大至58.4%。"董莉 娟说。 环比方面,11月份,CPI环比下降0.1%,主要受服务价格季节性下降影响。董莉娟分析,11月份, 服务价格下降0.4%,影响CPI环比下降约0.16个百分点。 人民日报海外版 ...
中央经济工作会议如何指引A股?机构研判来了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 15:30
【大河财立方消息】中央经济工作会议对资本市场有何指引?12月11日,招商证券发布研报称,基于中央经济工作会议对明年的 政策定调及各项经济工作安排部署,认为中央经济工作会议对A股明年的投资指引主要包括以下几个方面: (1)从宏观层面来看,政策整体延续了相对积极的政策基调。具体来看,财政政策取向积极,赤字率安排或维持在4%;货币政策 提到了,"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"意味着,在多项货币政策目标中,促进经济发展、物价回 升的优先级较高。明年A股有望继续迎来相对宽松的政策环境。 (2)从产业视角来看,重点关注"推动投资止跌回稳"下,明年重大项目的安排:本次会议肯定了当前投资增速面临下滑的问题, 部署推动投资止跌回稳。明年是十五五的开局之年,在这样的背景下,重大项目有望成为投资端的主要抓手,建议重点关注重大 项目相关预期。 (3)消费端方面,会议重视了经济中需求相对供给较弱的问题,并提及将制定实施城乡居民增收计划,是积极的信号。但值得注 意的是,今年并未提到"加力扩围",因此两新政策的资金支持力度可能难以迎来扩张。 (4)从过往市场表现经验来看,会后7天大盘风格往往相对占优。尤其是近5年 ...
建筑建材行业周报:高质量发展、扩大内需、反内卷仍是十五五关键词-20251026
Western Securities· 2025-10-26 12:39
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the construction and decoration industry. Core Insights - High-quality development, expanding domestic demand, and comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition are key themes for the 14th Five-Year Plan. The report emphasizes the importance of a strong domestic market as a strategic support for modernization in China. It suggests that construction companies will adopt a mindset focused on cash flow and profitability rather than just revenue growth [1][2]. - As of September 2025, fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, while infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1%. Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 13.9% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% [1][2]. - The report indicates that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable during the 14th Five-Year Plan period despite current challenges [2]. Market Performance - During the week of October 20-24, 2025, the construction index rose by 2.91%, and the building materials index increased by 1.60%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%. Year-to-date, the construction index has increased by 9.76%, ranking 19th out of 30 industries, and the building materials index has risen by 18.69%, ranking 12th [3][8]. - The report highlights that the market is becoming more active, particularly for low-growth, low-valuation, and low-holding construction and building materials sectors, especially heavyweight stocks [3][8]. Special Bonds and Funding Status - As of October 24, 2025, a total of 1,123.61 billion yuan in new local government special bonds were issued during the week, a week-on-week increase of 459.27%. The cumulative issuance for the year reached 38,096.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22% [2][19]. - The report notes that the funding availability rate for construction sites was 59.62%, with non-residential projects at 61.06% and residential projects at 52.76% [24]. Cement Industry Data - The national average cement price as of October 23, 2025, was 263.5 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%. The report anticipates that cement prices will continue to fluctuate [35][39]. - Cement production from January to September 2025 totaled 1.259 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, with September's production down 8.6% compared to the previous year [49][55]. Key Company Orders and Valuation - The report suggests focusing on major construction blue-chip stocks such as China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction, as well as companies involved in overseas projects and those benefiting from domestic demand [3][8]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios for the construction and building materials sectors are 9.46 and 21.72, respectively, indicating that the construction sector is at a historically low valuation level [3][14].