Core Viewpoint - The ongoing reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is expected to enhance their operational efficiency and cash flow, leading to a stronger willingness and ability to distribute dividends, which may result in a revaluation of these companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 20, 2025, the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index rose by 0.19%, with notable increases in stocks such as Xiamen International Trade (up 6.85%) and Bank of China (up 2.50%) [1]. - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) saw a slight increase of 0.08% [1]. Group 2: Characteristics of Dividend Stocks - Dividend stocks are characterized by stable dividends, strong profitability, and the ability to survive economic downturns. They typically exhibit high cash flow, mature earnings, and strong anti-cyclical capabilities [2]. - The CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index selects 100 listed companies with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current low valuation of dividend stocks relative to historical levels aligns with investment strategies that seek certainty in returns, particularly in a tightening monetary environment [2]. - The index's top ten weighted stocks account for 17.08% of the total index, indicating a concentrated investment in a few key players [2].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. If the value - type equity assets continue to decline, there may be a good entry window. The top - down broad - based portfolio view is 80% equity value style and 20% 30 - year Treasury bond ETF. The new convertible bond portfolio has 0 equity - type convertible bond position and 70% total position, all allocated to value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds (bond - like assets) [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Stock, Bond, and Convertible Bond Market Review - Last week, the A - share market oscillated upwards driven by sentiment and funds, with significant differentiation. Financial technology, small - cap growth, and micro - cap stocks performed strongly, while financial heavy - weight stocks were under pressure. The sector rotation accelerated. The computing power industry chain was boosted by NVIDIA's new high, the digital currency concept rose by the limit under the stimulation of Hong Kong's digital asset policy, the Xiaomi SU7 pre - sale stimulated the consumer electronics chain, military stocks strengthened in the middle of the week, and the non - ferrous metal sector was stimulated by factors such as shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the weakening of the US dollar, and arms exports. The Hong Kong stock market was also differentiated, with innovative drugs under pressure and virtual asset license concept stocks soaring. Safe - haven assets were under pressure, with gold falling due to the easing of the Middle East situation and WTI crude oil plummeting to a 27 - month low. The domestic bond market oscillated due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the selling pressure of long - term bonds was relatively large, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures experiencing a short - term diving market [2] - Last week, factors such as the strengthening of the underlying stocks, the continuous high - level oscillation of convertible bond valuations supported by the rigid demand of "fixed - income +" funds, and the repair of photovoltaic varieties led the CSI Convertible Bond Index to break through the previous high. Currently, the cost - performance ratio of convertible bonds is limited. On the one hand, the median price of the entire convertible bond market has risen to 123 yuan. On the other hand, the valuation has remained at a relatively high level, and the space for bond selection has narrowed. Overall, the proportion of inert convertible bonds with pending valuation adjustment is the largest and has further increased. Last week, the median conversion premium rate decreased from 32.5% to 30.8% (historical quantile 63%), the implied volatility increased from 27.1% to 29.6% (historical quantile 63%), and the median implied volatility difference increased from - 17% to - 15% (historical quantile 36%). Last week, the valuations of convertible bonds in some industries were actively increased, and there were even cases where the convertible bonds rose while the underlying stocks fell, such as in the banking, food, agriculture, transportation, and media industries. Currently, industries with relatively large bond - selection spaces include banking, non - ferrous metals, automobiles, and commercial trade, with mostly double - low and equity - type convertible bonds with good elasticity. In terms of market sentiment, the weekly average trading volume of the entire convertible bond market last week was 5.63 billion yuan, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The trading of traditional speculative bonds such as newly - issued bonds, low - rated convertible bonds, and double - high convertible bonds continued to be sluggish [3] 2. Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - From the perspective of large - scale asset allocation, in the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. At the current point, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. If the value - type equity assets continue to decline, there may be a good entry window. The top - down broad - based portfolio view is 80% equity value style and 20% 30 - year Treasury bond ETF. Therefore, the equity - type convertible bond position of the latest convertible bond portfolio is 0, and all are allocated to value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds (bond - like assets), with a total position of 70%. Among them, low - price convertible bonds with a value style have a relatively long remaining time and the expectation of downward adjustment. The liquidity brought by the delisting of bank convertible bonds should be gradually deployed at low levels. Value - style double - low convertible bonds currently have dual advantages in terms of underlying stocks and convertible bonds: the industries of the underlying stocks generally have low valuations; in terms of convertible bonds, they are mainly high - rated convertible bonds, with valuations continuously suppressed and scarcity gradually increasing. The convertible bond broad - based portfolio underperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.24 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the convertible bond broad - based portfolio has outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 15.85 percentage points in cumulative terms, with a maximum drawdown of 7.7% (the maximum drawdown of the CSI Convertible Bond Index during the same period was 7.5%) [4][5] 3. Performance of the Convertible Bond Market - **By industry**: Different industries showed different performances in terms of convertible bond yields, corresponding underlying stock yields, conversion premium rate changes, etc. For example, the communication industry had a convertible bond yield of 3.59% and a corresponding underlying stock yield of 5.63%, with a conversion premium rate change of - 2.50 percentage points; the national defense and military industry had a convertible bond yield of 3.31% and a corresponding underlying stock yield of 7.52%, with a conversion premium rate change of - 4.26 percentage points [13] - **By bond attributes**: Low - price convertible bonds, inert convertible bonds, double - low convertible bonds, equity - type convertible bonds, and double - high convertible bonds also had different performances. For example, low - price convertible bonds had a yield of 1.96%, and the corresponding underlying stocks had a yield of 3.26%, with a conversion premium rate change of - 2.17 percentage points [14] - **By rating**: Convertible bonds of different ratings, such as AAA, AA +, AA, etc., showed different yields, corresponding underlying stock yields, and conversion premium rate changes [15] - **By underlying stock market value**: Convertible bonds corresponding to underlying stocks of different market values had different performances. For example, convertible bonds corresponding to underlying stocks with a market value of over 20 billion yuan had a yield of 1.64%, and the corresponding underlying stocks had a yield of 2.04%, with a conversion premium rate change of - 0.59 percentage points [16] - **By convertible bond balance**: Convertible bonds with different balances also showed different performances. For example, convertible bonds with a balance of over 5 billion yuan had a yield of 1.49%, and the corresponding underlying stocks had a yield of 2.22%, with a conversion premium rate change of 0.18 percentage points [17] - **By listing duration**: Convertible bonds with different listing durations, such as old bonds, bonds listed for 3 - 4 years, etc., had different performances [18] 4. Characteristics of Convertible Bonds in Each Industry - Different industries had different characteristics in terms of the proportion of low - price convertible bonds, inert convertible bonds, double - low convertible bonds, equity - type convertible bonds, and double - high convertible bonds, as well as the median convertible bond price and conversion premium rate [19] 5. Rating, Scale, and Conversion Value of Convertible Bonds in Each Industry - Each industry showed different situations in terms of the proportion of convertible bonds of different ratings (AAA, AA +, etc.), different scales (market value ranges of underlying stocks, convertible bond balances), and conversion values [20]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and the broader financial market dynamics in the context of China's economic environment and U.S.-China relations [1][2][5][8][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The market is currently in a state of marginal contraction, with various asset classes underperforming. Investors are advised to select relatively better assets through a process of elimination, favoring bonds over stocks, particularly value-oriented equities [2][5][9]. 2. **Investment Strategy**: The recommended investment strategy involves concentrating positions in bonds, adjusting duration based on risk appetite. Higher risk tolerance suggests longer duration, while lower risk tolerance suggests shorter duration. The focus is on waiting for market dips to capitalize on value opportunities [9][32]. 3. **Debt Growth Trends**: The growth rate of liabilities in the real sector increased to 9.0% in April, primarily due to front-loaded fiscal measures. A decline in this growth rate is expected in June, with a slight expansion in July, followed by a return to contraction in August [10][11][12]. 4. **Impact of U.S.-China Trade Talks**: Expectations surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations have temporarily boosted risk appetite. However, the likelihood of systemic improvement from these talks is considered low. If no significant events occur, the market is expected to revert to a contraction phase, favoring fixed income over equities [8][15]. 5. **Artificial Intelligence Influence**: AI has significantly impacted market sentiment, with heightened interest in AI technologies boosting risk appetite. However, concerns about AI replacing human roles limit its potential for large-scale development [6][7]. 6. **Financial Sector Performance**: The financial sector has shown slight improvements in April and May, but the extent of this improvement is limited. The actual yield in the financial sector remains low, with a debt growth rate of approximately 4% corresponding to a yield of about 1.6% [13][14]. 7. **Government Policy and Economic Growth**: The role of monetary policy is diminishing, while fiscal policy is gaining importance due to declining profitability and the risk of liquidity traps. The focus should shift towards fiscal measures rather than relying solely on monetary policy [21][22]. 8. **Global Economic Trends**: Since 2011, the global economic growth center has been declining, leading to increased protectionism. The U.S. economy is expected to revert to lower growth rates, which may further exacerbate protectionist sentiments [19]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Debt Market Dynamics**: The records highlight the deep inversion in the bond markets between the U.S. and China, indicating that China's capital controls help mitigate outflow pressures, making it less susceptible to external shocks [17]. - **Market Reactions to Policy Changes**: Historical data shows that after interest rate cuts, both bonds and stocks tend to experience adjustments, indicating that liquidity expansion or policy easing is challenging in the current environment [30]. - **Investment in Growth vs. Value**: While value-oriented equities are recommended, there is a suggestion to consider growth indices for those willing to take on more risk, particularly in a favorable risk appetite environment [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government aiming to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is generally neutral. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. The report recommends a portfolio of the dividend index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][15][21] - The performance of the US economy is closely watched, especially whether and when the quarterly real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend level. The current situation in the US is similar to that during the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001 [6] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. A + H dividend - type stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [7][15][63] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7% previously, in line with expectations. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then decline. By the end of the year, it is projected to drop to around 8% [1][16] - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation eased marginally, but a monthly high may occur. The government's debt (including national and local bonds) increased by 219.5 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 128.3 billion yuan). The planned increase this week is 176.2 billion yuan. The government's liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of April 2025, up from 13.9% previously, and is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [2][17] 3.1.2 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume increased week - on - week, the capital price decreased, and the term spread widened. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital situation eased marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield trended downwards, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The estimated lower bound of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds widened to 24 basis points. The estimated central level of the term spread is adjusted downwards to 40 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the ten - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.7%. The central level of the spread between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is estimated at 20 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.9% [2][17] 3.1.3 Asset Side - In April, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to March. The 2025 government work report set the annual real economic growth target at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target at around 4.9% when calculated backwards from the deficit and deficit ratio. It remains to be seen whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation eased marginally, resulting in a bull market for both stocks and bonds, with the growth style outperforming expectations. Bond yields declined across the board, and the stock - bond ratio shifted towards stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.65%, the one - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 5 basis points to 1.41%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.88% [5][20] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. If value - type equity assets continue to fall, a good entry opportunity may emerge [6][21] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with increased volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, composites, and computers had the largest increases, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [27] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 6, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, pharmaceutical biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment, with crowding levels of 10.4%, 9.8%, 7.9%, 7.2%, and 7% respectively. The bottom five were composites, steel, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and beauty care, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.7% respectively [30] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, basic chemicals, and computers, with increases of 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.4%, 1%, and 0.4% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, automobiles, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, and banks, with changes of - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 0.9%, - 0.7%, and - 0.6% respectively [30] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.09 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were social services, non - bank finance, building materials, media, and non - ferrous metals, while composites, commercial retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment had the smallest increases [31] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, electronics, non - ferrous metals, composites, and computers had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [35] - As of June 6, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMI of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 3.34% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 1.3% in May. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [40] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March 2025 rose to a relatively high level in history, declined significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing trading volume declined significantly compared to the historical seasonality [40] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of June (June 3 - 6), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 3.6%, 2.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.9% [57] - As of June 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.46 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [7][63]