Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China remains in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio unchanged. The large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs and the probability of large - scale defaults and liquidity risks [2]. - The current loose money - market conditions are difficult to sustain, and the peak of the current round of money - market conditions is expected to occur between June 23 and July 4 [2][7]. - The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [6][22][23]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In May 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.9%, slightly lower than the previous value of 9.0%. It is expected to reach its peak in April, decline to around 8.8% in June, and then gradually decline to around 8% by the end of the year [2][17]. - The money - market conditions of the financial sector were marginally stable and slightly loose last week. Given the marginal de - leveraging of the real sector, the loose money - market conditions are unlikely to continue [2][17]. - The net reduction of government bonds last week was 316 billion yuan, lower than the planned net increase of 218.6 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 575.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of May, expected to rise slightly above 15% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [3][18]. Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose [3][18]. - The yield of one - year Treasury bonds decreased to 1.36% at the end of the week. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [3][18]. Asset Side - In May, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to April. The government's target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to further observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose, but risk appetite continued to decline. Funds flowed more towards short - term bonds, resulting in a continued "bearish stocks, bullish bonds" situation with a value - dominant style [6][21]. - The yields of short - term and long - term bonds declined slightly. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, the one - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.36%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.52 percentage points last week and has outperformed it by 6.45 percentage points since July, with a maximum drawdown of 0.0% [6]. - The report recommends a portfolio of 40% dividend index, 40% SSE 50 index, and 20% 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [7][23]. 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - The A - share market declined with lower trading volume this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66% [27]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases, while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [27]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 20, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, power equipment, machinery and equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, steel, coal, and building materials [29]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were electronics, power equipment, communications, machinery and equipment, and computers, while the top five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, automobiles, and textile and apparel [29]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased from 1.37 trillion yuan last week to 1.22 trillion yuan this week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, electronics, computers, and public utilities [30]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [34]. - As of June 20, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [35]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 8% week - on - week [39]. - In terms of domestic demand, second - hand housing prices declined in the latest week, and quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways increased, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a slight rebound in May and continued to rise slightly in June [39]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of June (June 16 - 20), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 0.4%, - 0.2%, - 0.6%, and - 1.2% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell 0.45% [53]. - As of June 20, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.41 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equity to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are generally expected to have the characteristics of non - expansion, good earnings, and survival [8][23][57]. - The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government aiming to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is generally neutral. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. The report recommends a portfolio of the dividend index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][15][21] - The performance of the US economy is closely watched, especially whether and when the quarterly real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend level. The current situation in the US is similar to that during the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001 [6] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. A + H dividend - type stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [7][15][63] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7% previously, in line with expectations. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then decline. By the end of the year, it is projected to drop to around 8% [1][16] - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation eased marginally, but a monthly high may occur. The government's debt (including national and local bonds) increased by 219.5 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 128.3 billion yuan). The planned increase this week is 176.2 billion yuan. The government's liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of April 2025, up from 13.9% previously, and is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [2][17] 3.1.2 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume increased week - on - week, the capital price decreased, and the term spread widened. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital situation eased marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield trended downwards, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The estimated lower bound of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds widened to 24 basis points. The estimated central level of the term spread is adjusted downwards to 40 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the ten - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.7%. The central level of the spread between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is estimated at 20 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.9% [2][17] 3.1.3 Asset Side - In April, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to March. The 2025 government work report set the annual real economic growth target at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target at around 4.9% when calculated backwards from the deficit and deficit ratio. It remains to be seen whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation eased marginally, resulting in a bull market for both stocks and bonds, with the growth style outperforming expectations. Bond yields declined across the board, and the stock - bond ratio shifted towards stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.65%, the one - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 5 basis points to 1.41%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.88% [5][20] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. If value - type equity assets continue to fall, a good entry opportunity may emerge [6][21] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with increased volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, composites, and computers had the largest increases, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [27] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 6, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, pharmaceutical biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment, with crowding levels of 10.4%, 9.8%, 7.9%, 7.2%, and 7% respectively. The bottom five were composites, steel, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and beauty care, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.7% respectively [30] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, basic chemicals, and computers, with increases of 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.4%, 1%, and 0.4% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, automobiles, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, and banks, with changes of - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 0.9%, - 0.7%, and - 0.6% respectively [30] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.09 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were social services, non - bank finance, building materials, media, and non - ferrous metals, while composites, commercial retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment had the smallest increases [31] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, electronics, non - ferrous metals, composites, and computers had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [35] - As of June 6, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMI of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 3.34% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 1.3% in May. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [40] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March 2025 rose to a relatively high level in history, declined significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing trading volume declined significantly compared to the historical seasonality [40] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of June (June 3 - 6), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 3.6%, 2.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.9% [57] - As of June 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.46 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [7][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows that the debt - to - GDP ratio of the real - economic sector will decline, and the fiscal policy front - loading will end around the end of March and early April. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the value style is more dominant. The recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF, Shanghai Composite 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The recommended industries are mainly A + H dividend - type stocks in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals [2][7][24] - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - economic sector's debt will decline, and the asset side is expected to operate stably. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of assets with stable returns and appropriately take on high - risk assets to obtain high returns [22] Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In February 2025, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector was 8.4%, slightly lower than expected. It is expected to rebound to around 8.6% in March and then decline. The government's debt growth rate is expected to reach a high point around the end of March and early April and then decline. By the end of the year, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector is expected to drop to around 8%, and that of the government sector to around 12.6% [2][18][19] - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase of government bonds was 495.5 billion yuan, higher than the plan. This week, it is planned to have a net reduction of 435.7 billion yuan. The fiscal policy front - loading started around mid - January and will basically end around the end of March and early April [3][19] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the money market showed a marginal relaxation. The yield of the one - year Treasury bond closed at 1.48% at the weekend, and the term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 24 basis points. The asset side may operate stably in the future, and it is necessary to observe whether the nominal economic growth rate of about 5% will become the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [4][20] 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - The stock - bond market continued the trend of a weak stock market and a strong bond market last week, with the value style remaining dominant. The yields of short - and long - term bonds declined significantly. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is gradually shifting to value. This week, the recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position), Shanghai Composite 50 Index (60% position), and CSI 1000 Index (20% position) [7][23][24] - Since 2016, China has entered a period of marginal contraction of the national balance sheet. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of stable - return assets and appropriately take on high - risk assets. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness is biased towards bonds, and specific allocation strategies are proposed for stocks and bonds [22] 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and banking had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had the largest decreases [31] 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of April 3, the top five crowded industries were electronics, machinery and equipment, computer, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals. The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased this week, with non - bank finance, banking, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and retail trade having the largest increases in trading volume, and national defense and military industry, coal, oil and petrochemicals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals having the largest decreases [34][36] 3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of social services, computer, public utilities, retail trade, and national defense and military industry increased the most, while that of comprehensive, automobile, household appliances, power equipment, and non - bank finance decreased the most. Industries with high profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, oil and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, transportation, food and beverage, liquor, household appliances, telecommunications, and consumer electronics [39][40] 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI declined in March, and the CCFI index decreased. However, the port throughput increased, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam rose. In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price increased slightly, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in March, and the automobile trading volume was at a historically high level [44] 3.5 Public - Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of March (March 24 - 28), most active public - fund equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of March 28, the net asset value of active public - fund equity funds was 3.56 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59] 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is only slightly biased towards equities, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, oil and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][64]