2025 年 11 月 30 日 关注债券超调后的机会——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《宏观流动性确认边际收敛—— 资产配置周报》2025-11-16 2、《宏观流动性边际收敛概率上升 ——资产配置周报》2025-11-09 3、《风险偏好上升情景排除——资 产配置周报》2025-11-02 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 10 月实体部门负债 增速录得 8.6%，前值 8.9%，降幅超预期。预计 11 月实体部 门负债增速稳定在 8.6%附近，后续趋于下行，重回缩表。按 照目前的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将下降 至 8.4%附近。金融部门方面，上周资金面边际上有所松弛， 符合之前的判断，本周是 12 月的第一周，资金面或仍有恢复 动能，但时间和空间都较为有限，重点关注本周是否形成资 金面高点。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出："使社会融资 规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the continuous poor performance of stocks and bonds. The subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable earnings, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, the equity style favors value, and the recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. This week, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the China Securities 1000 Index (20% position) are recommended [2][8]. - In the contraction cycle, the degree to which the stock - bond ratio favors equities is limited, and the probability of value style outperforming is higher. A + H dividend portfolios and A - share portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.6%, down from 8.9% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to decline slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to a contraction phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8.4% [2][17]. - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation continued to converge marginally, but there were signs of a rebound in the second half of the week. The government's goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and China is still in a marginal contraction phase [2][17]. - In terms of fiscal policy, the net increase in government bonds last week was 2378 billion yuan (slightly higher than the planned 2283 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 2480 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of October 2025 was 13.9%, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to drop to around 13.0% in November and remain on a downward trend [3][18]. - In terms of monetary policy, the weekly average trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread slightly increased. The yield of one - year treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.40% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year treasury bonds slightly increased to 42 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond yields are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. - **Asset Side** - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The Two Sessions set the target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target at around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation continued to converge, and both stocks and bonds underperformed for two consecutive weeks, exceeding expectations. The stock market was bearish, and the bond market was flat. The equity style continued to favor value. The stock - bond ratio favored bonds. The yield of ten - year treasury bonds remained stable at 1.82%, the yield of one - year treasury bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.40%, and the term spread slightly increased to 42 basis points. The yield of thirty - year treasury bonds increased by 1 basis point to 2.16%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.46 pct last week [6][21]. - Since 2016, China has entered a marginal contraction phase of the national asset - liability sheet. The stock - bond ratio favors bonds. The bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit spread, and the stock allocation strategy is dividends plus growth [20]. - As of now, there have been two expansions of the real - sector balance sheet this year. The external environment's honeymoon period for China is over, and international funds will compare China and the US on a more equal footing. China's advantage lies in the real economy [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5.1%, and the ChiNext Index fell 6.2%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, media, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines, while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of November 21, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, computer, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, coal, and social services. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were computer, media, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and communication, while the top five with decreased crowding were power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and commercial retail [31]. - This week, the average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 1.87 trillion yuan, down from 2.04 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were national defense and military industry, computer, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and real estate, while the industries with the smallest growth were power equipment, food and beverage, household appliances, environmental protection, and basic chemicals [33]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings** - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banking, food and beverage, media, national defense and military industry, and household appliances had the smallest declines in PE(TTM), while power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel had the largest declines. Industries with relatively high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, auto parts, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity** - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed trends. The CCFI index rose 2.6% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate decreased to 3.6% in October and rose to 8.2% in the first 20 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [41]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The number of trucks passing through expressways increased. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August and falling from September to October, slightly increased in November but remained at a historically low level. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historically low level, and second - hand housing trading volume declined seasonally [41]. - **Public Fund Market Review** - In the third week of November (November 17 - 21), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of November 21, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.7 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. - **Industry Recommendation** - In the contraction cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. Dividend - type stocks should generally have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good earnings, and survival. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal convergence of macro - liquidity has been confirmed, and the subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable profits, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds, and the equity style favors value. The recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) are recommended [8][24]. - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline, and the government's liability growth rate will also trend downwards. The economy on the asset side needs to be observed for signs of stabilization or marginal upward movement [2][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.6%, down from 8.8% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to drop slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to the de - leveraging phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to fall to around 8.3% [2][17]. - The financial sector's liquidity marginally converged last week. The high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, and the probability of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is relatively high in the future [2][17]. - The government's liability growth rate was 13.9% at the end of October 2025, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to decline to around 13.0% in November and by the end of the year [3][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Policy - Last week, the net increase in government bonds (including national and local bonds) was 476.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned 264.8 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net increase is 228.3 billion yuan [3][18]. 3.1.3 Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price of funds increased, and the term spread slightly decreased. The yield of one - year Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, with a central value of around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 40 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond yields are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. 3.1.4 Asset Side - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether this nominal economic growth rate will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the liquidity marginally converged, and the high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence of macro - liquidity. Stocks performed poorly, and bonds were stable. The value style in the equity market continued to dominate. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.81%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.41%, the term spread slightly decreased to 40 basis points, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 2.15% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.1 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the broad - based rotation strategy has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 6.62 percentage points, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to the CSI 300's maximum drawdown of 15.7%) [6][21]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined slightly. Among the Shenwan primary industries, the top - performing sectors were comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial retail, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology, with weekly increases of 7%, 4.4%, 4.1%, 3.7%, and 3.3% respectively. The sectors with the largest declines were communication, electronics, computer, machinery and equipment, and national defense and military industry, with weekly changes of - 4.8%, - 4.8%, - 3%, - 2.2%, and - 2.2% respectively [29]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of November 14, the top five crowded industries were power equipment, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals, with crowding levels of 15.6%, 14.5%, 7.2%, 7.1%, and 6% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, social services, and petroleum and petrochemicals, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.8% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, food and beverage, real estate, and banks, with increases of 2.4%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were power equipment, automobiles, computers, electronics, and machinery and equipment, with changes of - 1.6%, - 1.3%, - 0.9%, - 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.04 trillion yuan this week, slightly higher than last week's 2.01 trillion yuan. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were food and beverage, comprehensive, commercial retail, basic chemicals, and beauty care, with volume changes of 59.1%, 35.2%, 35%, 34.7%, and 19.7% respectively. The industries with the smallest increases in trading volume were media, computer, steel, banks, and coal, with volume changes of - 21.7%, - 21.6%, - 20%, - 13%, and - 10.4% respectively [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the sectors with the largest increases in PE(TTM) were comprehensive, commercial retail, beauty care, textile and apparel, and basic chemicals, with changes of 5.3%, 5.1%, 4.9%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively. The sectors with the smallest increases were communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, and computer, with valuation changes of - 2.4%, - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 1.3%, and - 1.2% respectively [36]. - As of November 14, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed changes. The CCFI index increased by 3.4% week - on - week in the latest week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate dropped to 3.6% in October and rose to 6.4% in the first 10 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [40]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed changes. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August 2025, declined from September to October and slightly rebounded in November but remained at a historical low. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing sales declined seasonally compared to history. As of November 9, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.39% week - on - week. As of October 31, the producer price index increased by 0.3% week - on - week [40]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the second week of November (November 10 - 14), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly performance levels were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 declined by 1.1% weekly [53]. - As of November 14, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.89 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendations - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds only slightly favors equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are expected to have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and survival. Combining these characteristics with the under - allocation in the public fund's quarterly report, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [59].

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall economic situation shows that China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities is expected to decline, and the government's liability growth rate is also trending down. The economic growth rate needs further observation, and the risk preference has increased recently, with the stock - bond ratio favoring stocks [1][2][6]. - It is recommended to use the equity growth style instead of the bond position this week, suggesting an allocation of 60% in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and 40% in the CSI 1000 Index. In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. A + H and A - share dividend portfolios are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In September 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.9%, expected to remain stable around 8.9% in October and then decline to about 8.5% by the end of the year. The government's liability growth rate was 14.5% in September, expected to drop to around 14.0% in October and 13.0% by the end of the year. The central bank's policies reinforce the judgment of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio [1][2]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the money market was generally stable. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.47% at the weekend, with an estimated lower limit of about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasuries was stable at 38 basis points. The future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasuries are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in September continued to weaken compared to August. The full - year nominal economic growth target for 2025 is around 4.9%, and it remains to be seen whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Overall Outlook for 2025**: China's asset prices are mainly affected by changes in the national balance sheet. The real GDP growth rate on the asset side is expected to fluctuate between 4 - 5%, and the liability growth rate of the real sector is expected to decline. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness generally favors bonds, but recently, due to the increase in risk preference, it has shifted towards stocks [21][6]. - **Recent Market Performance**: Last week, the money market was stable, risk preference increased significantly over the weekend, resulting in rising stocks and falling bonds. The equity style shifted to growth - oriented, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the one - year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 1.47% [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: This week, it is recommended to use the equity growth style instead of the bond position, suggesting an allocation of 60% in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and 40% in the CSI 1000 Index [8]. 3. Industry Recommendations 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.7%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.1%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, power equipment, machinery, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest increases, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, and beauty care had the largest declines [30]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of October 24, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computer, and communication, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, textile and apparel, social services, and steel. The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased compared to last week [33][34]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, electronics, power equipment, machinery, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, food and beverage, beauty care, and others had the smallest increases. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banking, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, and others [38][39]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: There were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI declined from 50.9 in September to 50.8, and most major economies' PMIs decreased. The CCFI index rose by 2.02% in the latest week, and port cargo throughput increased. South Korea's export growth rate decreased in October, while Vietnam's increased [43]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price decreased in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic increased, the capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October, automobile sales were at a relatively high level, and new - home sales were at a historical low [43]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of October (October 20 - 24), some active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of October 24, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.2 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [60]. 3.6 Industry Recommendations - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio consists of 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio consists of 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation industries [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the growth rate of the real - sector liabilities expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year, and the government - sector liabilities to around 12.5% [3][4][17] - After the risk - preference repair is basically in place, the equity style will gradually shift to value - dominance, and the recommended asset allocation is 60% for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, 20% for the China Securities 1000 Index, and 20% for the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF [9][24][25] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio are mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [10][63] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis Liabilities - The growth rate of real - sector liabilities in August 2025 was 8.9%, down from 9.1% previously, and is expected to continue to decline. The government - sector liabilities growth rate was 15.0% at the end of August, and is expected to drop to 12.5% by the end of the year [3][4][17] - Last week, the money market tightened marginally, and the stock and bond markets moved in the same direction, mainly trading on expectations of a Fed rate cut [3][7][17] Assets - The physical - quantity data in August was weaker than in July. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen if this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [5][19] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market tightened, resulting in a double - bear market for stocks and bonds. The equity style was still growth - dominant, but the cost - performance ratio slightly favored bonds [7][22][24] - After the two sessions in 2025, the trend of the national balance sheet has been more clearly judged. There have been two real - sector expansions this year, with different triggering factors [8][23] - The risk - preference repair is basically in place, and the equity style is expected to shift to value - dominance. The recommended asset allocation includes the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, the China Securities 1000 Index, and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF [9][24][25] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined on heavy volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.1% and the ChiNext Index rose 2.3%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, coal, power equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery had the largest gains, while banking, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, steel, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the largest losses [30] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of September 19, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computers, and automobiles, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and textile and apparel [33] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were automobiles, machinery, household appliances, social services, and coal, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - ferrous metals, computers, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and non - bank finance [33] - The trading volume of the entire A - share market increased this week. Coal, building decoration, household appliances, real estate, and transportation had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [34] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, coal, automobiles, power equipment, electronics, and real estate had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while banking, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, steel, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the smallest increases [38] - As of September 19, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low valuations compared to history included banking, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and consumer electronics [39] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - External demand generally recovered. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.7 to 50.9 in August, and most major economies' PMIs increased [43] - Internal demand showed mixed signals. Second - hand housing prices fell last week, and quantity indicators were mixed. The highway truck traffic volume increased, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries decreased slightly in September after rising from May to August [43] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of September (September 15 - 19), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 19, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.18 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [58] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio mainly include stocks from industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [10][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China remains in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio unchanged. The large - scale debt resolution reduces local government financing costs and the probability of large - scale defaults and liquidity risks [2]. - The current loose money - market conditions are difficult to sustain, and the peak of the current round of money - market conditions is expected to occur between June 23 and July 4 [2][7]. - The stock - bond ratio favors bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly higher cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets [6][22][23]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In May 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.9%, slightly lower than the previous value of 9.0%. It is expected to reach its peak in April, decline to around 8.8% in June, and then gradually decline to around 8% by the end of the year [2][17]. - The money - market conditions of the financial sector were marginally stable and slightly loose last week. Given the marginal de - leveraging of the real sector, the loose money - market conditions are unlikely to continue [2][17]. - The net reduction of government bonds last week was 316 billion yuan, lower than the planned net increase of 218.6 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 575.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of May, expected to rise slightly above 15% in June and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [3][18]. Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. After adjusting for seasonal effects, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose [3][18]. - The yield of one - year Treasury bonds decreased to 1.36% at the end of the week. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [3][18]. Asset Side - In May, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to April. The government's target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to further observe whether this will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money - market conditions were marginally stable and slightly loose, but risk appetite continued to decline. Funds flowed more towards short - term bonds, resulting in a continued "bearish stocks, bullish bonds" situation with a value - dominant style [6][21]. - The yields of short - term and long - term bonds declined slightly. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.64%, the one - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.36%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.84% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.52 percentage points last week and has outperformed it by 6.45 percentage points since July, with a maximum drawdown of 0.0% [6]. - The report recommends a portfolio of 40% dividend index, 40% SSE 50 index, and 20% 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [7][23]. 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - The A - share market declined with lower trading volume this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.66% [27]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases, while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [27]. 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 20, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, power equipment, machinery and equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, steel, coal, and building materials [29]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were electronics, power equipment, communications, machinery and equipment, and computers, while the top five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, automobiles, and textile and apparel [29]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased from 1.37 trillion yuan last week to 1.22 trillion yuan this week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, electronics, computers, and public utilities [30]. 3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, banks, communications, electronics, food and beverages, and household appliances had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while beauty care, textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, non - ferrous metals, and social services had the largest declines [34]. - As of June 20, 2025, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [35]. 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 8% week - on - week [39]. - In terms of domestic demand, second - hand housing prices declined in the latest week, and quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways increased, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a slight rebound in May and continued to rise slightly in June [39]. 3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of June (June 16 - 20), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 0.4%, - 0.2%, - 0.6%, and - 1.2% respectively, while the CSI 300 fell 0.45% [53]. - As of June 20, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.41 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equity to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are generally expected to have the characteristics of non - expansion, good earnings, and survival [8][23][57]. - The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government aiming to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is generally neutral. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. The report recommends a portfolio of the dividend index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][15][21] - The performance of the US economy is closely watched, especially whether and when the quarterly real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend level. The current situation in the US is similar to that during the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001 [6] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. A + H dividend - type stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [7][15][63] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7% previously, in line with expectations. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then decline. By the end of the year, it is projected to drop to around 8% [1][16] - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation eased marginally, but a monthly high may occur. The government's debt (including national and local bonds) increased by 219.5 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 128.3 billion yuan). The planned increase this week is 176.2 billion yuan. The government's liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of April 2025, up from 13.9% previously, and is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [2][17] 3.1.2 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume increased week - on - week, the capital price decreased, and the term spread widened. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital situation eased marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield trended downwards, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The estimated lower bound of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds widened to 24 basis points. The estimated central level of the term spread is adjusted downwards to 40 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the ten - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.7%. The central level of the spread between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is estimated at 20 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.9% [2][17] 3.1.3 Asset Side - In April, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to March. The 2025 government work report set the annual real economic growth target at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target at around 4.9% when calculated backwards from the deficit and deficit ratio. It remains to be seen whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation eased marginally, resulting in a bull market for both stocks and bonds, with the growth style outperforming expectations. Bond yields declined across the board, and the stock - bond ratio shifted towards stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.65%, the one - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 5 basis points to 1.41%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.88% [5][20] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. If value - type equity assets continue to fall, a good entry opportunity may emerge [6][21] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with increased volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, composites, and computers had the largest increases, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [27] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 6, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, pharmaceutical biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment, with crowding levels of 10.4%, 9.8%, 7.9%, 7.2%, and 7% respectively. The bottom five were composites, steel, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and beauty care, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.7% respectively [30] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, basic chemicals, and computers, with increases of 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.4%, 1%, and 0.4% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, automobiles, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, and banks, with changes of - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 0.9%, - 0.7%, and - 0.6% respectively [30] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.09 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were social services, non - bank finance, building materials, media, and non - ferrous metals, while composites, commercial retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment had the smallest increases [31] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, electronics, non - ferrous metals, composites, and computers had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [35] - As of June 6, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMI of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 3.34% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 1.3% in May. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [40] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March 2025 rose to a relatively high level in history, declined significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing trading volume declined significantly compared to the historical seasonality [40] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of June (June 3 - 6), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 3.6%, 2.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.9% [57] - As of June 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.46 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [7][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows that the debt - to - GDP ratio of the real - economic sector will decline, and the fiscal policy front - loading will end around the end of March and early April. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the value style is more dominant. The recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF, Shanghai Composite 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The recommended industries are mainly A + H dividend - type stocks in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals [2][7][24] - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - economic sector's debt will decline, and the asset side is expected to operate stably. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of assets with stable returns and appropriately take on high - risk assets to obtain high returns [22] Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In February 2025, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector was 8.4%, slightly lower than expected. It is expected to rebound to around 8.6% in March and then decline. The government's debt growth rate is expected to reach a high point around the end of March and early April and then decline. By the end of the year, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector is expected to drop to around 8%, and that of the government sector to around 12.6% [2][18][19] - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase of government bonds was 495.5 billion yuan, higher than the plan. This week, it is planned to have a net reduction of 435.7 billion yuan. The fiscal policy front - loading started around mid - January and will basically end around the end of March and early April [3][19] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the money market showed a marginal relaxation. The yield of the one - year Treasury bond closed at 1.48% at the weekend, and the term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 24 basis points. The asset side may operate stably in the future, and it is necessary to observe whether the nominal economic growth rate of about 5% will become the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [4][20] 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - The stock - bond market continued the trend of a weak stock market and a strong bond market last week, with the value style remaining dominant. The yields of short - and long - term bonds declined significantly. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is gradually shifting to value. This week, the recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position), Shanghai Composite 50 Index (60% position), and CSI 1000 Index (20% position) [7][23][24] - Since 2016, China has entered a period of marginal contraction of the national balance sheet. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of stable - return assets and appropriately take on high - risk assets. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness is biased towards bonds, and specific allocation strategies are proposed for stocks and bonds [22] 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and banking had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had the largest decreases [31] 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of April 3, the top five crowded industries were electronics, machinery and equipment, computer, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals. The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased this week, with non - bank finance, banking, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and retail trade having the largest increases in trading volume, and national defense and military industry, coal, oil and petrochemicals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals having the largest decreases [34][36] 3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of social services, computer, public utilities, retail trade, and national defense and military industry increased the most, while that of comprehensive, automobile, household appliances, power equipment, and non - bank finance decreased the most. Industries with high profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, oil and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, transportation, food and beverage, liquor, household appliances, telecommunications, and consumer electronics [39][40] 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI declined in March, and the CCFI index decreased. However, the port throughput increased, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam rose. In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price increased slightly, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in March, and the automobile trading volume was at a historically high level [44] 3.5 Public - Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of March (March 24 - 28), most active public - fund equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of March 28, the net asset value of active public - fund equity funds was 3.56 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59] 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is only slightly biased towards equities, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, oil and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][64]