1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The multi - empty game in the precious metals market has intensified. If subsequent negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may further relieve the callback pressure on gold prices. If the results are below expectations, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying [2]. - The Fed's independence is continuously hindered. Considering Trump's fiscal stimulus plan and the risk of inflation rebounding, the feasibility of a rate cut exceeding 25bps is low. The subsequent PCE data may become the indicator for the Fed's rate cut [2]. - In the long - term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's rate - cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline in the US dollar's credit still provide strong support for gold prices. In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for gold in the short - term and try to go long on silver at low prices with a light position. Pay attention to risk control. The focus range for the SHFE AU2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE AG2510 contract is 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract is 777.66 yuan/gram, up 1.86 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract is 9258 yuan/kilogram, up 54 yuan [2]. - The position of the gold main contract is 194,004 lots, down 3,651 lots; the position of the silver main contract is 350,742 lots, up 4,614 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the gold main contract is 164,475 lots, up 2,060 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the silver main contract is 116,454 lots, down 313 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,345 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,138,426 kilograms, down 3,129 kilograms [2]. - The SMM gold spot price is 773.4 yuan/gram, up 1 yuan; the SMM silver spot price is 9213 yuan/kilogram, up 44 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE gold main contract is - 4.26 yuan/gram, down 0.86 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract is - 45 yuan/kilogram, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 965.36 tons, up 4.01 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15,071.31 tons, unchanged [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 229,485 contracts, down 7,565 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 44,268 contracts, down 6,390 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.17%, up 0.29%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11%, up 0.1% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 16.03%, down 0.91% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump plans to announce additional tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors in the next two weeks, with semiconductor tariffs possibly far exceeding the previously mentioned 100% [2]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is hesitant about rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and tariff uncertainties. Milan, nominated by Trump as a Fed governor, said inflation is "under control" [2]. - Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on August 18. If successful, a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 84.6%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.5% [2]. 3.6 Market Situation - The main contracts of gold and silver in the Shanghai market fluctuated upward during the session. The prices of gold and silver in London maintained a narrow - range oscillation, slightly recovering from last Friday's decline [2]. - The results of the US - Russia weekend negotiations were generally optimistic. Although no substantial results were achieved, the positive statements after the meeting provided room for further negotiations and potential cease - fire. The market's risk - aversion sentiment quickly cooled, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Silver prices remained relatively strong due to their industrial attributes [2]. - The stronger - than - expected US wholesale and retail data further reduced the probability of a rate cut after the PPI data. If Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23 is "balanced", the downward space for interest rates may be limited [2]. - The interest rate futures show that the rate - cut expectation has dropped from the previous high of 98% to the current 84.6%. However, the market still expects the Fed to start the rate - cut window in September, which provides support for gold prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's September interest rate cut window is still the current market's baseline scenario, providing some support for gold prices. The expected US-Russia negotiations have intensified the long-short game in the precious metals market. If the negotiations achieve substantial progress, it may relieve the downward pressure on gold prices; otherwise, the safe-haven demand may drive up gold prices. The feasibility of an interest rate cut greater than 25bps is low and risky. The subsequent PCE and inflation data may become the indicators for the Fed's interest rate cut. In the medium to long term, factors such as the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut window, the long - standing US twin deficits, and the decline of the US dollar's credit still support gold prices. In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the potential risks of unexpected outcomes in the US - Russia negotiations, and maintain a long - term strategy of buying on dips. The suggested trading ranges for next week are: 750 - 800 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract, 9100 - 9300 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract, 3300 - 3400 US dollars/ounce for the London gold price, and 37.5 - 38.5 US dollars/ounce for the London silver price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, US macro - data fluctuated significantly. Gold prices faced continuous resistance in rising, while silver prices remained relatively firm due to interest rate cut expectations. The July US CPI data strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in September. The PPI index released on Thursday showed an unexpected rebound in producer inflation, which may lead to higher consumer inflation in the future, causing the probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September to decline marginally and gold prices to be trapped in a range - bound oscillation [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's September interest rate cut window is the baseline scenario, providing support for gold prices. The US - Russia negotiations will intensify the long - short game. The call for an emergency interest rate cut by the US Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus plan, along with the risk of inflation rebound, make a large - scale interest rate cut less likely. The subsequent PCE data may be affected by the PPI rebound, which could hinder the interest rate cut expectations. In the medium to long term, gold prices are supported by multiple factors, and in the short term, they will fluctuate within a range [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, COMEX silver was at $38.05 per ounce, down 1.19% month - on - month; the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract was at 9204 yuan/kilogram, down 0.80% month - on - month. COMEX gold was at $3389.4 per ounce, down 1.99% month - on - month; the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract was at 775.80 yuan/gram, down 1.52% month - on - month [13]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 14, 2025, the net holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.20% month - on - month to 964.22 tons, while the net holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained basically unchanged at 15100 tons [18]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's total positions increased by 0.99% month - on - month to 449647 contracts, and net positions increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 237050 contracts. COMEX silver's total positions decreased by 5.32% month - on - month to 161262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 14.73% month - on - month to 50658 contracts [23]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 5, 2025, COMEX gold's non - commercial long positions increased by 3.90% month - on - month to 292194 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.30% month - on - month to 55144 contracts [28]. - **Basis Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.6 yuan/gram, up 20.53% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 12 yuan/kilogram, down 58.62% month - on - month [31]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month to 38622416.43 ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 0.84% month - on - month to 36045 kilograms. COMEX silver inventory remained basically unchanged at 506441781 ounces, and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased by 2.20% month - on - month to 1158387 kilograms [38]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports decreased slightly by 0.14% month - on - month to 273364.75 kilograms, and silver ore imports dropped significantly by 7.51% month - on - month to 126019303.00 kilograms. Due to the surge in silver demand in the semiconductor industry, the growth rate of integrated circuit production continued to rise, with the monthly production reaching 4506000.00 pieces in June 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate at 15.80% [40][46]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, silver's industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and net bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year. The total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year, and the supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [52][56]. - **Gold Industry**: As of August 14, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 773 yuan/gram, down 0.96% week - on - week. The prices of Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Liulifuzhou gold decreased by 0.79%, 1.18%, and 0.70% week - on - week respectively [62]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The slowdown in central bank gold purchases and the high gold prices led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [64]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The CPI data was slightly lower than expected, and the US dollar index continued to be under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility index declined, and the ratio of SP500 to COMEX gold price increased. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate rose slightly this week. In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the 9th consecutive month of increase [68][73][78][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the "hard economic data" shows signs of weakness, combined with a significant increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar index maintains a weak and volatile pattern, which is beneficial for gold prices. However, if the subsequent US - Russia negotiations make substantial progress, it may relieve the downward pressure on gold prices. The industrial nature of silver may be boosted by both interest - rate cuts and the easing of geopolitical tensions, and silver prices may remain relatively resilient. It is recommended to focus on the US July PPI producer inflation and last week's unemployment benefit claims data to be released tonight. A moderate PPI may strengthen the Fed's dovish interest - rate cut expectations, thereby supporting precious metal prices. For trading, try to go long at low levels in the short term and maintain a long - term low - level layout strategy, while paying attention to risk control. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9200 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 778.7 yuan/gram, up 0.98; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9286 yuan/kilogram, down 14. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 199,577 hands, down 1900; those of Shanghai Silver are 366,680 hands, up 1347. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 163,500 hands, down 2367; those of Shanghai Silver are 118,970 hands, up 1215. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 36,345 kilograms, up 300; that of silver is 1,150,782 kilograms, up 15,684 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.6 yuan/gram, up 0.9; the spot price of silver is 9308 yuan/kilogram, up 108. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4.1 yuan/gram, down 0.08; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 22 yuan/kilogram, up 122 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 964.22 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,099.56 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 237,050 contracts, up 13,454; those of silver are 50,658 contracts, down 8749. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 10.88%, down 0.1; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.96%, up 0.02. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 18.57%, down 0.11; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 18.57%, down 0.11 [2] 3.5 Industry News - A source said that US President Trump will propose to Putin during the Russia - US summit to jointly develop rare - earth mineral resources in Alaska and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if the meeting between Trump and Putin goes poorly, the US may increase sanctions on Russia or impose secondary tariffs. The US Department of Energy announced actions to ensure the security of the US critical mineral and material supply chain and allocated $1 billion for mineral security. Bessent issued the clearest call for interest - rate cuts by the US government so far, asking the Fed to immediately start a new round of interest - rate cuts and stating that US interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current level. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.3%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 5.7%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 31.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.8%. During the Asian session, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, and the prices of gold and silver in the Shanghai market fluctuated weakly. The overall growth rate of the US CPI in July was relatively moderate. Combined with the previously significantly weak non - farm payrolls report and PMI indicators, the expectation of a slowdown in the US economy has been strengthened. The probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September remains high, which strongly supports the prices of gold and silver. However, the expectation of US - Russia negotiations intensifies the long - short game in the precious metals market, and there may be short - term downward pressure. Bessent's repeated calls for an emergency interest - rate cut by the Fed and the continuous obstruction of the Fed's independence have increased the marginal risk - aversion sentiment. However, considering the combination of tariffs and fiscal stimulus plans, the feasibility of an interest - rate cut greater than 25 basis points is low and the risk is high [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine may facilitate negotiations between Trump and Russia [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the potential geopolitical implications of the U.S.-Ukraine agreement, suggesting it could influence future diplomatic relations [1]