Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite Powell's cautious stance on monetary policy and the short - term resilience of US economic data, the large US debt issuance demand will drive the Fed to shift to an easing cycle. The Trump administration's expansionary fiscal policy requires loose monetary policy, which will be reflected in the decline of the gold - silver ratio. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 747 - 801 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 774.06 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.88% to 8821.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.40% to 3334.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.13% to 36.88 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.26%, and the US dollar index was 97.33 [2] - Various precious metal - related data such as the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different gold and silver contracts, as well as the yields of US Treasury bonds, the US dollar index, and other financial market indicators are presented in detail in the report [4][6] Economic Data and Policy - The US economic data showed resilience. The month - on - month value of durable goods orders in May was 16.4%, much higher than the expected 8.5% and the previous value of - 6.6%. The month - on - month value of the pending home sales index in May was 1.8%, higher than the expected 0.1% and the previous value of - 6.3% [2] - Powell was cautious about interest - rate cuts during the congressional hearings, believing that the US economic situation has high uncertainty and preferring to base interest - rate decisions on facts without providing more forward - looking guidance. Trump was dissatisfied with the Fed's monetary policy and said he had three to four potential candidates for the next Fed chairman [2] Technical Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structures and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [8][9][11][16][21][22][26][28][36][37][39][45][47][48][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For bonds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the ChiNext Index down 1.17%, etc. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.9 billion yuan to 1.4154 trillion yuan. There were positive policy news such as allowing certain Hong Kong - listed enterprises to list in Shenzhen and the MSCI China Index rising. The financing amount increased by 7.447 billion yuan, and the liquidity was relatively loose. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic is based on policy support, and the strategy is to buy IF long contracts on dips, with no arbitrage recommendation [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all had small increases. There were news about the "one - old - one - young" service and Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The short - term bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.23% to 774.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.43% to 8889 yuan/kg. COMEX gold and silver both declined. If the US fiscal bill is passed, the debt ceiling problem will be solved, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit will ease before July 4, which is a marginal negative factor for gold prices. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a stable US dollar index, copper prices oscillated downward. LME copper inventories decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [9][10]. Aluminum - With the listing of cast aluminum alloy and the recovery of domestic black commodities, aluminum prices oscillated upward. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, it is still unstable. The decline in inventory will support aluminum prices, but the increase in US import tariffs on aluminum products will limit the upside of aluminum prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [11]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and zinc smelter profits have increased again. Zinc ingots are expected to have a large increase in production, while terminal consumption is weak. After three consecutive sets of inventory accumulation data, zinc prices fell significantly. It is necessary to observe the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level. If there is no production control, zinc prices may continue to decline [12]. Lead - The price of lead rose slightly. The downstream battery enterprises are reducing prices for promotion, and terminal procurement is weak. The operating rate of primary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead products is high. Lead prices are expected to remain weak [13]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The supply of nickel ore is tight due to weather conditions, and the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded. The supply of intermediate products is still tight, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen. The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long term. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [14]. Tin - The price of tin decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the processing fee is at a historical low. The operating rate of smelting enterprises is low. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has decreased. The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat, and the futures price increased slightly. The contract position decreased, and the main contract will switch. There is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand, and it is expected to oscillate. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [16]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased slightly. The spot price remained unchanged, and the import window opened. The inventory of futures decreased. Although there are disturbances in the ore end, the overcapacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract is provided, and risks such as policy changes in Guinea need to be noted [17][18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased. The market competition has intensified after the cancellation of the price limit policy by steel mills. The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the market transaction is light. The future market trend depends on whether the downstream demand can drive the digestion of inventory [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply of hot - rolled coil increased, and the demand remained weak with a slight increase in inventory. The export volume decreased this week, and the market has entered the traditional off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, terminal demand, and cost support [21][22]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in supply and demand and macro - events [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased. The price of soda ash was relatively stable, and the supply decreased due to maintenance, but the demand also decreased. The mid - term supply of soda ash is still loose, and both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weak - oscillating trend [24]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon decreased slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon was flat. The prices of both are in a downward trend, mainly due to overcapacity, weak demand, and a decrease in cost expectations. It is not recommended to bottom - fish blindly. It is necessary to pay attention to the support and pressure levels [25][26]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon decreased. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [29][30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and rebounded. The bulls are optimistic about rubber production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory consumption was slow. It is recommended to take a short - term long or neutral approach and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][35][38]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased, while the price of INE crude oil increased. The gasoline inventory in Fujeirah port increased, and the diesel inventory decreased. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the shale oil support effect, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [39]. Methanol - The futures price of methanol decreased, and the spot price increased. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand has improved slightly. The price may decline further, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread [40]. Urea - The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price was flat. The supply is high, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, but there is still top - dressing demand. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [41][42]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The cost is stable, the production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but a rebound may occur if the export does not weaken as expected [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply load was stable, and the downstream load decreased slightly. The inventory increased slightly. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking may slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [44]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the processing fee is supported. PTA will oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Para - xylene - The price of para - xylene increased. The supply load increased, and the demand from PTA also increased. The inventory is expected to decrease slowly in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The short - term valuation is at a medium - high level, and it is expected to oscillate [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The spot price of PE increased. The supply pressure will ease in June, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The spot price of PP was stable. The supply is expected to increase significantly in June, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in June [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The price of live pigs increased in most areas. The demand is general, and the support for pig prices is limited. The short - term pig price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short on rallies for the far - month contract [50]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable with a slight decrease in some areas. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The theoretical supply is still increasing, and the consumption is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and pay attention to the support of the far - month contract when the position is large [51]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans increased slightly, and the domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The new - season US soybeans may oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range and the supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [52][53]. Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first 10 days of June. The export of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased in May, but the inventory in other countries is low. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate due to the balance of positive and negative factors [54][55][56]. Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. The spot price was stable. The export of Brazilian sugar decreased slightly in the first week of June, and the sugar production in India is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The international supply situation has improved, and the domestic supply may increase. The sugar price is likely to decline [57][58]. Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The spot price increased. The planting and budding rates of US cotton are slightly lower than last year. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand situation has improved marginally. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate [59][60][61].

贵金属日报 2025-06-10 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.18 %，报 776.66 元/克，沪银涨 2.07 %，报 9015.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.24 %， 报 3346.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.45 %，报 36.96 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.49%，美元指数报 98.99 ； 市场展望： 美国经济数据进一步走弱，同时债务上限问题的逐步推进解决将加大下半年美债的发行压力， 美联储的进一步降息具备必要性，而这将驱动白银价格持续表现强势。 昨日公布的美国 4 月批发销售环比值为 0.1%，低于预期的 0.3%和前值的 0.8%。而美国 4 月批 发库存环比终值为 0.2%，高于预期和前值的 0%。销售数据不及预期，而库存数据回升，显示 美国居民消费端受高利率以及关税政策的影响已经有所弱化。 美国财政方面，对于特朗普的财政法案，参议院计划在本周公布修改后的医疗保健条款，共和 党人急于在 7 ...