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美元信用衰退
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美元继续跳水,资金加快流出!黄金成首选?
券商中国· 2025-04-21 15:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar, which has fallen below the 98 mark, leading to a rise in Asian currencies and increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Currency and Dollar Performance - The US dollar index has dropped to a three-year low, with a decline of over 1.4% on April 21, 2025, and a year-to-date increase of approximately 11.38% for the euro against the dollar and 12% for the yen [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the dollar is overvalued by 20%, attributing this to the adverse effects of US tariff policies on the dollar's credibility [2][4]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the dollar's decline, with record inflows into gold funds amounting to $8 billion in the past week, surpassing stock fund inflows of $7.9 billion [5][6]. - The price of gold futures reached over $3,400 per ounce, while domestic gold prices exceeded 800 yuan per gram, reflecting a strong demand for gold as a hedge against dollar asset risks [2][5]. Investment Trends - The inflow into gold ETFs has been robust, with a continuous increase for 12 weeks, marking the longest streak since 2022. The total inflow for the first quarter of 2025 reached $21 billion, with 226 tons of gold added [6]. - In China, gold ETF inflows were approximately 5.6 billion yuan in March, contributing to a total asset management scale of 101 billion yuan, a record high [6]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the ongoing issues with the dollar's credibility are likely to persist, with the US economy facing potential recession or stagflation. This situation may lead to increased investment in precious metals [7].