全球金融市场的避险情绪正同时受到伊朗最新局势不确定性以及美联储相关司法争议的影响。1月12日 早盘，伦敦现货黄金价格一度突破4600美元／盎司，最高达到4600.79美元／盎司，再创历史新高。伦 敦现货白银涨近5%，逼近84美元／盎司，创下历史新高。 在王彦青看来，当前信用货币体系的动摇是支撑贵金属上涨的核心原因。一方面从美国内部看，美国总 统特朗普与美联储之间的争端正持续削弱美元的信用。美联储独立性的动摇叠加美国财政与政府债务扩 张加速均推动了去美元化的进程；另一方面从全球来看，大国博弈逐渐白热化，国家之间不信任的增 加，亦推动去美元化进程。 华安基金指数与量化投资部基金经理助理、首席黄金研究员周泓灏对新华财经表示，黄金大涨背后主要 受到两方面因素推动，一是近期全球地缘冲突频发，避险资金或涌向黄金。委内瑞拉事件仍在发酵，此 外伊朗与格陵兰岛的问题均体现出较大变数，传统国际秩序趋于崩溃，避险情绪利好黄金。 二是美联储独立性危机仍在发酵。当地时间11日，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储 备委员会华盛顿总部翻修事项，对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查，进一步加剧了市场对政策稳定性的 担忧。"特朗普的频频 ...

近期热度拉满的贵金属市场，突发大震荡。 伦敦现货黄金一度升至4500美元/盎司上方，最高至4550.52美元/盎司，随后震荡下跌，一度跌破4500美元/盎司关口，最低至4471.25美元/盎司，较日内最 高点位跌近80美元/盎司。截至北京时间12月29日12:00，报4516.06美元/盎司，跌0.36%。 截至北京时间12月29日12:00，白银坐上"过山车"，先大涨超5%，再转跌超3%，后涨超1%；黄金日内最大跌幅近80美元/盎司。 元旦假期临近，贵金属市场波动为何突然加剧？短期回调是否意味着上涨行情终结？业内人士对2026年贵金属后市又有哪些预判？ 贵金属市场大震荡 Wind数据显示，伦敦现货白银在大涨超5%逼近84美元/盎司的历史新高后直线走低，一度转跌超3%，随后逐步拉升。截至北京时间12月29日12:00，报 80.37美元/盎司，涨1.31%。 预计后市易涨难跌 尽管短期贵金属价格遭遇回调，但业内人士继续看好后市。 展望2026年，南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹表示，贵金属将在美联储独立性危机、美元信用衰退与白银现货危机三重叙事下维持易涨难跌格 局。 黄金方面，美元体系弱化持续推升配置价 ...

近期热度拉满的贵金属市场，突发大震荡。 截至北京时间12月29日12:00，白银坐上"过山车"，先大涨超5%，再转跌超3%，后涨超1%；黄金日内最大跌幅近80美元/盎司。 元旦假期临近，贵金属市场波动为何突然加剧？短期回调是否意味着上涨行情终结？业内人士对2026年贵金属后市又有哪些预判？ 贵金属市场大震荡 铂金价格盘中跳水，一度跌近8%，随后跌幅收窄。截至北京时间12月29日12:00，报2434.30美元/盎司，跌0.09%。 | < ロ | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTPTUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | 2434.30 "f | | 2436.60 | 息量 | | O | | -2.30 | -0.09% 开盘 | 2473.50 | 现手 | | 0 | | 最高价 2478.50 | 色 持 | | 外盘 0 | | 0 | | 最低价 2243.80 | 招 仓 | | 0 内 盘 | | 0 | | 分时 五日 | 目K | 周K | 月K | 更多 | (0) | | 营 ...

每经AI快讯，百利天恒（SH 688506，收盘价：338.55元）12月28日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第四 次董事会会议于2025年12月26日在公司会议室召开。会议审议了《关于提请召开公司2026年第一次临时 股东会的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，百利天恒的营业收入构成为：医药制造业占比99.97%，其他业务占比0.03%。 截至发稿，百利天恒市值为1398亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——涨疯了！黄金、铂金、白银通通创历史新高，美元大贬值！专家：美联储 独立性遭干预引发危机；前美联储理事：大幅降息重启房地产市场 （记者 张明双） ...

Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Valuation - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are approaching those seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble, raising concerns about sustainability [2] - Analysts predict a 10-13% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a 15% growth expected in 2026, but there are doubts whether this growth can support current valuations [2] - If major tech companies fail to deliver expected returns from AI investments, market confidence could collapse, leading to significant economic repercussions [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - The top 20% of wealthy households in the US hold 70% of financial assets, and their spending accounts for nearly half of total US consumption [3] - A collapse of the AI bubble could lead to a rapid decrease in wealth for these households, resulting in a sharp contraction in consumer spending and a potential recession [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The construction of AI infrastructure has created numerous jobs, but a sudden halt in AI investment could lead to widespread job losses and a rise in unemployment [4] - Stricter immigration policies are exacerbating labor shortages, which could lead to increased wage inflation and further economic instability [5] Group 4: Fiscal and Trade Risks - The US federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][7] - Proposed "tariff rebates" by the Trump administration could exacerbate the deficit, especially if they are not supported by corresponding revenue [6][7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - The potential political influence over the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, leading to uncontrolled inflation and rising long-term interest rates [10][11] - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and increased capital flight [12] Group 6: Bond Market Trust Crisis - The US federal deficit is expected to remain high, and any loss of investor confidence could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, affecting global financial stability [13] - European countries are also facing similar challenges, with rising defense spending and increasing public debt levels [14][15] Group 7: Japanese Policy and Global Impact - Japan's recent interest rate hikes could disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting yen carry trades that have significant implications for liquidity [16][17] - A potential "rate hike-recession" cycle in Japan could further complicate global economic conditions [17] Group 8: Gold Valuation Risks - The significant disparity between the market value and the official valuation of US gold reserves poses risks if the government decides to revalue these assets [18][19] - A revaluation could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [19][20] Group 9: Geopolitical Risks - The shift in US foreign policy could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains [21][22] - Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa could disrupt critical trade routes, impacting global economic stability [23][25] Group 10: European Political Fragmentation - The rise of far-right parties in Europe and the erosion of EU unity could lead to increased political instability and economic challenges [26][27] - The potential for member states to act independently could weaken the EU's collective decision-making power and exacerbate existing tensions [28] Group 11: Private Credit Market Risks - The private credit market has grown significantly, but rising default rates and financial instability could lead to a broader financial crisis [29][30] - A collapse in this market could trigger a chain reaction affecting traditional financial systems and investor confidence [30]

当然了，面临4500的关口，再次遇阻。 下方回落，再探4440的区域。 黄金冲高跳水，二度冲关4500无果，直接来了挑扁担形态。跳水后，再次快步回升，高位洗盘，再闯关 4500。 明天的走势 黄金二度暴力冲顶，穿4500后。 又迎来了闪跌跳水，重回4500下方。 接连冲高跳水，再反抽。 明天再闯关4500的关口，再次上破，看新高不猜顶。 一方面，特朗普加码对美联储的行动，美联储主席面试开启，直接引发美联储独立性危机。更重要的是 美联储主席候选人接连放鸽，或遭遇傀儡式降息，利好黄金大涨。 另外一方面，美失业金降临，结果不及预期和前值，上周创单周新高后，本周失业金降温，好好坏坏， 又给了美元支撑。特别是圣诞节，流动性紧缩，再次引发黄金跳水。 明天消息面 周五收官日，或再谨防黑色星期五。以及日12月数据洪流冲击，日央行加息预期，或再影响汇率市场。 对于现货黄金的投资，方向和趋势的判断尤其重要。更重要的是入场点和出场点的把握能力，说白了就 是准确率，这个是能够实现稳健获利的必要的前提条件。这个不是一两本书，或者一两年功夫实操就可 以锻炼出来的。而是需要长时间实操和结果和经验。 此位置反弹，看两个区域范围内的震荡整理。 ...

来源：陕西法制网 币百科btcbaike12月12日讯，美联储宣布降息25个基点，并在30天内购买400亿美元国库券。按传统逻辑 这是重大利好，但市场反应却出人意料：短期利率下降了，长期国债收益率却不降反升。这种反常现象 背后，隐藏着一个更危险的信号：投资者正在为美联储独立性丧失这一结构性风险定价。对加密投资者 而言，这正是重新审视资产配置的关键时刻——而资产配置的安全底线，往往始于一个可靠的私钥钱 包，比如XBIT Wallet私钥钱包。 基于宽松+风险溢价的复合宏观环境，传统资产面临复杂局面：债券市场长短期分化，股市波动性上 升，黄金虽受双重支撑但机会成本仍存，美元则面临短期避险与长期贬值的矛盾。而对于加密参与者来 说，这次美联储独立性危机，恰恰是重新审视加密资产配置价值的关键时刻，但无论配置何种加密资 产，私钥的安全存储都是第一道关卡。XBIT Wallet私钥钱包采用本地硬件级加密技术，私钥完全由用 户自主生成并存储于设备本地，不经过任何第三方服务器中转，从根源上杜绝了「私钥托管风险」。相 比部分依赖云存储的钱包，XBIT Wallet私钥钱包让用户真正成为资产的唯一掌控者，即使平台遭遇攻 击，资产也 ...

Group 1: Economic Risks and AI Investment - The current AI investment boom is masking significant risks in the U.S. economy [1][4] - Oxford Economics predicts that the investment growth rate in information processing equipment and software will reach 20%-40% by mid-2025, marking the fastest growth since the late 1990s [4] - If the tech sector underperforms, the U.S. economy could become vulnerable, as tech investments are expected to contribute all growth in fixed investment by mid-2025, while other sectors may decline [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - There is a crisis regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with concerns that political pressures could undermine its credibility in controlling inflation [2][3] - The Trump administration's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve's policies, including threats to dismiss board members, pose a risk to its independence [2][3] - Yellen warns that if the Trump administration successfully removes a Federal Reserve board member, it could set a precedent that jeopardizes the institution's autonomy [3] Group 3: Impact on Talent and Innovation - The ongoing conflict between U.S. universities and the Trump administration is leading to a loss of scientists and researchers, which could hinder technological advancement [4] - The U.S. economy's growth heavily relies on its leadership in new technologies and the ability to create new enterprises [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive [3][49]. - Since the beginning of this year, silver has been strongly favored. Although the silver price has risen by over 40% since the start of the year, it is still at a low level in terms of both absolute and relative prices compared to gold and copper, and has greater price elasticity, so its price trend is more promising [3][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Review - In August 2025, precious metal prices were strong. Weak US non - farm payroll data at the beginning of August and Trump's actions triggered recession concerns and increased rate - cut expectations, driving up precious metal prices. However, strong PPI data in July weakened the September rate - cut expectation, pressuring precious metal prices. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 20th boosted precious metal prices again. As of the end of August, the monthly increase of the COMEX gold futures main contract was 5.2%, and that of the COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.76%. In September, Trump's intensified intervention and weak non - farm data continued to strengthen rate - cut expectations and push up precious metal prices. The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in August made the domestic precious metal price increase weaker than that of the international market [8]. II. Analysis of Precious Metals Price Influencing Factors 1. Intensification of the Fed's Independence Crisis - Since Trump's second term in January 2025, he has repeatedly attacked Fed Chairman Powell for slow rate - cuts and threatened to dismiss him to offset the negative impact of tariff policies and reduce government debt interest. Although it is difficult to dismiss the Fed Chairman according to the current legal framework, the list of potential candidates has been narrowed to three. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August shifted from hawkish to dovish, possibly indicating the beginning of the end of the Fed's independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 25th was the first direct dismissal by a president since the Fed's establishment in 1913, intensifying market concerns about the Fed's independence, lowering long - term US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and pushing up gold prices [15][16]. 2. Weak Non - farm Payrolls Strengthen Rate - cut Expectations - The August non - farm payroll data continued to deteriorate, with only 22,000 new jobs added, far lower than the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the hourly wage growth rate was lower than before, all supporting the Fed's rate - cut. Other employment - related data also indicated a cooling labor market. Although the current evidence for a US economic recession is insufficient, Trump's greater control over the Fed provides political motivation for rate - cuts. Considering inflation data, the Fed may choose to cut rates by 25bp continuously, with 2 - 3 rate cuts this year [17][18]. III. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 1. Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In August, the silver price outperformed the gold price, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.4 to around 85. Recently, with the gold price hitting a new high, the ratio rebounded slightly. It is expected that the silver price will continue to catch up, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to decline [22]. 2. Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads - In the first half of August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated narrowly, and it depreciated in late August, narrowing the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures. The spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures was within the normal range, and the domestic futures - spot spreads were also normal [24]. 3. Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank gold - buying slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. However, the first - half - year purchase was above the five - year average and over 40% higher than the ten - year average. China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month in August. It is expected that central banks will continue to buy gold in 2025, supporting gold demand [27][28]. 4. Changes in Precious Metals Inventories - Since December last year, due to the expectation of Trump's possible import tariffs on gold, a large amount of gold was transported to New York, increasing COMEX gold inventories. As of September 5, 2025, COMEX gold inventories were 38.96 million ounces (about 1212 tons), a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 129% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories were 518.37 million ounces (about 16123 tons), a 2.38% month - on - month increase and a 69% year - on - year increase. In August, the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased slightly [29][31]. 5. Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In the past three years, the positive correlation between the holdings of international gold and silver ETFs and precious metal prices has weakened. Recently, as the gold price hit new highs, funds flowed into gold and silver ETFs. In the second quarter of 2025, gold ETF investment was a key driver of gold demand. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR reached 982 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares increased to 15194 tons [37][38]. 6. Changes in CFTC Positions - The non - commercial positions in COMEX represent the trend of speculative funds and usually lead the precious metal price trend. Since mid - August, the non - commercial net long positions in silver futures have increased rapidly, corresponding to the strong rise in the silver price. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures were 249,530 contracts, and those in COMEX silver futures were 55,923 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds directly promoted the precious metal price increase at the end of August and the beginning of September [43]. IV. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - Trump's intervention in the Fed and weak US employment data have strengthened the market's rate - cut expectations. Multiple positive factors such as capital inflows into ETFs, central bank gold - buying, and the recovery of physical demand support precious metal prices. Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive. Silver is more favored due to its relatively low price and high price elasticity [49].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has rebounded for the second consecutive week, approaching previous horizontal resistance levels, with a potential target of $3533 in the near term, despite some pullback risks [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3371.93 per ounce at the beginning of the week, recorded a low of $3351.20 on Tuesday, and subsequently rebounded to reach a high of $3453.75, closing at $3449.09, marking a weekly increase of $77.16 or 2.29% [3][9]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $102.55, indicating strong volatility in the market [3]. Market Influences - The rebound in gold prices was supported by buying interest at the mid-band and 60-day moving averages, alongside increasing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, along with favorable consumer confidence and inflation expectations, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][5]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with the potential for further price increases due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the likelihood of a rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - The market is currently positioned above several moving averages, indicating a favorable environment for potential bullish entries upon any pullbacks [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is anticipated to face resistance around $3455 to $3470, while support levels are identified at $3425 and $3400 [10]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, suggesting a higher probability of price increases in the near future [5][7].