来源：第一财经 2026.02.02 本文字数：2352，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 2月2日，黄金、白银价格继续剧烈波动。截至记者发稿，现货黄金跌6.80%，报4562美元/盎司；现货白银跌11.46%，早间曾一度转涨，但随后又大幅下 挫，报75.49美元/盎司。 第一财经发现，随着黄金、白银价格持续大幅下挫，人们投资实物黄金的热情有所松动，部分投资者选择观望，此前日日被抢断货的银行金条也出现了库 存，部分银行的实物金条甚至显示为"库存充足"状态。 投资情绪降温 | 11:28 ■ … | | KBPs Will St (100) | | 11:49 ■ … | | 14 . "Ill , 200 | 11:48 ■ … | | 1.85 Will @ 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | < | 产品详情 | બ્દ | | | 产品详情 | . 69 | < | 产品详情 | . (00 | | | | | | | 00 0 | 产品工工资产业、服务的体育 | | | | | 产品由残 ...

矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。根据 wind数据，2025年全年，矿业ETF（561330）年内涨幅全市场ETF第三，有色类ETF第一，具备龙头更 集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高的特点。 风险提示：数据来源：wind，矿业ETF2025年涨幅106.11%，在有色板块10只ETF中排名第一。提及个 股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参考，不代表其未来表 现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成投资建议或承诺。提 及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品要素、风险等级及收 益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金。黄金的避 险需求和投资需求或长期持续，价格或长期上 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20260119-20260123） 避险升温&美联储独立性危机，金银价格再 推荐（维持） 创新高 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 行业观点 2：受淡季影响和宏观扰动，铝价或震荡运行 ❑ 事件：根据钢联，1 月 23 日，SHFE 铜铝价格比为 4.18，LME 铜铝价格比为 4.08；库存看，截至 1 月 22 日，国内铝锭现货库存 76.8 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.9 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.4 万吨，铝棒库存 22.95 万吨，环比上周四增 加 1.6 万吨，环比本周一增加 0.5 万吨；1 月 23 日 LME 库存 50.73 万吨，环 比本周一增加 22275 吨，环比上周五增加 19275 吨。从下游看，根据阿拉丁数 据，本周国内铝板带行业产能利用率为 70.39%，较上周下降 0.36 个百分点； 国内铝箔行业产能利用率为 75.52%，较上周上涨 0.77 个百分点。 观点：我们认为铝短期进入消费淡季，淡季效应在逐步显性，但是长期基本面 和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改变，对铝价支撑强。当前看铝基本面：一是未来几年 供给刚性明显，电力扰动存量项目减产预期持续强化， ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged to a historic high of $4,883 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, particularly related to the Greenland dispute and U.S. tariffs on European goods [1][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. imposing tariffs on eight European countries, has heightened market concerns about a potential trade war, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. - The situation surrounding Greenland has intensified, with Denmark's firm stance against U.S. acquisition plans and military simulations by Canada regarding a potential U.S. invasion, further straining U.S.-European relations [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic landscape shows signs of resilience, with stable employment and strong GDP growth, but concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and rising inflation expectations are influencing market dynamics [7][8]. - Recent inflation data indicates a year-on-year CPI of 2.7%, with core CPI at 2.6%, both slightly below market expectations, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [7][8]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank planning to increase its gold reserves significantly, reflecting a broader trend of diversifying away from the U.S. dollar [12]. - The World Gold Council projects that global central bank gold purchases will remain robust, with an estimated total of 800-850 tons in 2025, despite a decline from 2024 levels [12]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with some estimates suggesting a target of $5,000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [12][13]. - The volatility in the market, particularly in response to U.S. stock market fluctuations, may impact gold and silver prices, necessitating cautious investment strategies [14].

Group 1: Core Insights - The gold market is experiencing a shift from a fringe asset to a mainstream investment, with increased volatility and a historical high of 65% institutional ownership in physical gold ETFs [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the U.S., are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Economic uncertainty, highlighted by mixed U.S. economic indicators, is leading to expectations of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, enhancing gold's attractiveness [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices are maintaining an upward trend, with key support at the 5-day moving average around 4580; a sustained position above this level could indicate a continued bullish outlook [4] - The four-hour chart indicates a strong upward movement since the 4274 point, but caution is advised due to potential pullback risks; key support levels to watch include 4600, 4580/4570, and 4560 [6] - Resistance levels are identified at 4640/4645 and 4673, with the former being a significant high point from recent trading sessions [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets due to geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][3] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $4600.79 per ounce, while silver prices approached $84 per ounce, marking significant increases driven by global conflicts and the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing disputes between President Trump and the Federal Reserve are undermining the credibility of the dollar, contributing to a trend of de-dollarization and increasing the appeal of precious metals [2][3] Group 2 - The current environment of frequent geopolitical conflicts is creating substantial uncertainty in the market, which is enhancing the safe-haven properties of precious metals [2] - Factors such as rising debt risks, geopolitical tensions, and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization are expected to sustain the upward trajectory of gold prices in the long term [3] - The supply shortage of silver, coupled with rising industrial demand and tight inventory conditions, is likely to drive silver prices further upward [2][3]

Market Volatility - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver initially rising over 5% before dropping more than 3%, and gold seeing a maximum decline of nearly $80 per ounce [1][2][4] - As of December 29, 2023, silver was priced at $80.37 per ounce, reflecting a 1.31% increase, while gold was at $4516.06 per ounce, down 0.36% [2][4] Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the increased volatility to the upcoming New Year holiday and potential adjustments in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may lead to heightened market fluctuations [6][8] - The trading heat in the silver market is driven by a perceived shortage, with increased trading volume and delivery amounts, although there are concerns about profit-taking and market cooling as the delivery month ends [8] Future Outlook - Despite short-term price corrections, industry experts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for precious metals, predicting a challenging environment for prices to decline significantly [8][9] - The precious metals market is expected to be influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's independence crisis, the weakening of the dollar, and a potential silver supply crisis, which could support higher prices in the future [9][10] - Analysts suggest that gold prices may rise due to increased demand for safe-haven assets and central bank purchases, while silver could outperform gold due to industrial demand and supply constraints [9][10]

Market Volatility - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver initially rising over 5% to nearly $84 per ounce before dropping over 3%, and then recovering slightly to $80.37 per ounce, a 1.31% increase [1] - Gold reached a peak of $4550.52 per ounce before falling to a low of $4471.25 per ounce, marking a decline of nearly $80 per ounce, and was reported at $4516.06 per ounce, down 0.36% [3] - Platinum prices saw a sharp decline of nearly 8% during the trading session, but the drop was later mitigated, with the price reported at $2434.30 per ounce, down 0.09% [5] Market Drivers and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in trading activity for precious metals is influenced by the upcoming New Year holiday and potential adjustments in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may lead to increased market volatility [6] - The silver market is experiencing speculative trading due to a perceived shortage, with increased delivery volumes in the futures market. However, the end of the delivery month and the holiday break may lead to profit-taking and increased price volatility [7] - Looking ahead to 2026, analysts remain optimistic about precious metals, citing factors such as the Federal Reserve's independence crisis, declining dollar credibility, and a potential silver supply crisis as key drivers for price increases [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance for silver is intensifying, with global deliverable inventories at historical lows. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) inventory, excluding ETFs, offers little buffer [8] - Potential tariffs on silver imports by the U.S. could exacerbate resource competition and disrupt trade flows, worsening the current supply shortage [8] - Industrial demand from sectors such as photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles is expected to provide rigid support for silver prices, while low mining output makes prices sensitive to demand shocks [8] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to trading, suggesting that investors consider reducing long positions in the short term due to potential profit-taking and market cooling [7] - The overall outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with expectations of price increases driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical risks. Strategies should focus on low-cost positioning while being mindful of market volatility [9]

Company Overview - Baili Tianheng (SH 688506) announced that its fifth board meeting will be held on December 26, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the 2026 first extraordinary shareholders' meeting [1] - As of the report, Baili Tianheng has a market capitalization of 139.8 billion yuan [1] Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, Baili Tianheng's revenue composition is as follows: 99.97% from the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and 0.03% from other businesses [1]

Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Valuation - The current valuation levels of US stocks, particularly in the AI sector, are approaching those seen during the 2000 dot-com bubble, raising concerns about sustainability [2] - Analysts predict a 10-13% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2025, with a 15% growth expected in 2026, but there are doubts whether this growth can support current valuations [2] - If major tech companies fail to deliver expected returns from AI investments, market confidence could collapse, leading to significant economic repercussions [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Resilience - The top 20% of wealthy households in the US hold 70% of financial assets, and their spending accounts for nearly half of total US consumption [3] - A collapse of the AI bubble could lead to a rapid decrease in wealth for these households, resulting in a sharp contraction in consumer spending and a potential recession [3] Group 3: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The construction of AI infrastructure has created numerous jobs, but a sudden halt in AI investment could lead to widespread job losses and a rise in unemployment [4] - Stricter immigration policies are exacerbating labor shortages, which could lead to increased wage inflation and further economic instability [5] Group 4: Fiscal and Trade Risks - The US federal budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6][7] - Proposed "tariff rebates" by the Trump administration could exacerbate the deficit, especially if they are not supported by corresponding revenue [6][7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - The potential political influence over the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, leading to uncontrolled inflation and rising long-term interest rates [10][11] - A loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and increased capital flight [12] Group 6: Bond Market Trust Crisis - The US federal deficit is expected to remain high, and any loss of investor confidence could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, affecting global financial stability [13] - European countries are also facing similar challenges, with rising defense spending and increasing public debt levels [14][15] Group 7: Japanese Policy and Global Impact - Japan's recent interest rate hikes could disrupt global financial markets, particularly affecting yen carry trades that have significant implications for liquidity [16][17] - A potential "rate hike-recession" cycle in Japan could further complicate global economic conditions [17] Group 8: Gold Valuation Risks - The significant disparity between the market value and the official valuation of US gold reserves poses risks if the government decides to revalue these assets [18][19] - A revaluation could lead to inflationary pressures and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve [19][20] Group 9: Geopolitical Risks - The shift in US foreign policy could lead to increased volatility in global markets, particularly concerning energy prices and supply chains [21][22] - Ongoing conflicts in regions like the Middle East and Africa could disrupt critical trade routes, impacting global economic stability [23][25] Group 10: European Political Fragmentation - The rise of far-right parties in Europe and the erosion of EU unity could lead to increased political instability and economic challenges [26][27] - The potential for member states to act independently could weaken the EU's collective decision-making power and exacerbate existing tensions [28] Group 11: Private Credit Market Risks - The private credit market has grown significantly, but rising default rates and financial instability could lead to a broader financial crisis [29][30] - A collapse in this market could trigger a chain reaction affecting traditional financial systems and investor confidence [30]