Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive [3][49]. - Since the beginning of this year, silver has been strongly favored. Although the silver price has risen by over 40% since the start of the year, it is still at a low level in terms of both absolute and relative prices compared to gold and copper, and has greater price elasticity, so its price trend is more promising [3][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Review - In August 2025, precious metal prices were strong. Weak US non - farm payroll data at the beginning of August and Trump's actions triggered recession concerns and increased rate - cut expectations, driving up precious metal prices. However, strong PPI data in July weakened the September rate - cut expectation, pressuring precious metal prices. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 20th boosted precious metal prices again. As of the end of August, the monthly increase of the COMEX gold futures main contract was 5.2%, and that of the COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.76%. In September, Trump's intensified intervention and weak non - farm data continued to strengthen rate - cut expectations and push up precious metal prices. The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in August made the domestic precious metal price increase weaker than that of the international market [8]. II. Analysis of Precious Metals Price Influencing Factors 1. Intensification of the Fed's Independence Crisis - Since Trump's second term in January 2025, he has repeatedly attacked Fed Chairman Powell for slow rate - cuts and threatened to dismiss him to offset the negative impact of tariff policies and reduce government debt interest. Although it is difficult to dismiss the Fed Chairman according to the current legal framework, the list of potential candidates has been narrowed to three. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August shifted from hawkish to dovish, possibly indicating the beginning of the end of the Fed's independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 25th was the first direct dismissal by a president since the Fed's establishment in 1913, intensifying market concerns about the Fed's independence, lowering long - term US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and pushing up gold prices [15][16]. 2. Weak Non - farm Payrolls Strengthen Rate - cut Expectations - The August non - farm payroll data continued to deteriorate, with only 22,000 new jobs added, far lower than the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the hourly wage growth rate was lower than before, all supporting the Fed's rate - cut. Other employment - related data also indicated a cooling labor market. Although the current evidence for a US economic recession is insufficient, Trump's greater control over the Fed provides political motivation for rate - cuts. Considering inflation data, the Fed may choose to cut rates by 25bp continuously, with 2 - 3 rate cuts this year [17][18]. III. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 1. Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In August, the silver price outperformed the gold price, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.4 to around 85. Recently, with the gold price hitting a new high, the ratio rebounded slightly. It is expected that the silver price will continue to catch up, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to decline [22]. 2. Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads - In the first half of August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated narrowly, and it depreciated in late August, narrowing the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures. The spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures was within the normal range, and the domestic futures - spot spreads were also normal [24]. 3. Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank gold - buying slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. However, the first - half - year purchase was above the five - year average and over 40% higher than the ten - year average. China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month in August. It is expected that central banks will continue to buy gold in 2025, supporting gold demand [27][28]. 4. Changes in Precious Metals Inventories - Since December last year, due to the expectation of Trump's possible import tariffs on gold, a large amount of gold was transported to New York, increasing COMEX gold inventories. As of September 5, 2025, COMEX gold inventories were 38.96 million ounces (about 1212 tons), a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 129% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories were 518.37 million ounces (about 16123 tons), a 2.38% month - on - month increase and a 69% year - on - year increase. In August, the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased slightly [29][31]. 5. Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In the past three years, the positive correlation between the holdings of international gold and silver ETFs and precious metal prices has weakened. Recently, as the gold price hit new highs, funds flowed into gold and silver ETFs. In the second quarter of 2025, gold ETF investment was a key driver of gold demand. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR reached 982 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares increased to 15194 tons [37][38]. 6. Changes in CFTC Positions - The non - commercial positions in COMEX represent the trend of speculative funds and usually lead the precious metal price trend. Since mid - August, the non - commercial net long positions in silver futures have increased rapidly, corresponding to the strong rise in the silver price. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures were 249,530 contracts, and those in COMEX silver futures were 55,923 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds directly promoted the precious metal price increase at the end of August and the beginning of September [43]. IV. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - Trump's intervention in the Fed and weak US employment data have strengthened the market's rate - cut expectations. Multiple positive factors such as capital inflows into ETFs, central bank gold - buying, and the recovery of physical demand support precious metal prices. Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive. Silver is more favored due to its relatively low price and high price elasticity [49].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has rebounded for the second consecutive week, approaching previous horizontal resistance levels, with a potential target of $3533 in the near term, despite some pullback risks [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3371.93 per ounce at the beginning of the week, recorded a low of $3351.20 on Tuesday, and subsequently rebounded to reach a high of $3453.75, closing at $3449.09, marking a weekly increase of $77.16 or 2.29% [3][9]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $102.55, indicating strong volatility in the market [3]. Market Influences - The rebound in gold prices was supported by buying interest at the mid-band and 60-day moving averages, alongside increasing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, along with favorable consumer confidence and inflation expectations, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][5]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with the potential for further price increases due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the likelihood of a rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - The market is currently positioned above several moving averages, indicating a favorable environment for potential bullish entries upon any pullbacks [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is anticipated to face resistance around $3455 to $3470, while support levels are identified at $3425 and $3400 [10]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, suggesting a higher probability of price increases in the near future [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish, supported by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and potential dovish monetary policy from the U.S. government [1][3]. Price Movements - On August 27, gold opened at $3,393.50 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,373.48, and then rebounded to a high of $3,398.30, closing at $3,396.82, marking a daily increase of $3.32 or 0.098% [3]. - The price is expected to remain within a triangular consolidation pattern, with a bias towards upward breakout in the coming days [3]. Market Influences - Concerns regarding President Trump's attempts to dismiss a Federal Reserve board member have heightened market anxiety about the Fed's independence, which supports gold prices [3]. - The market anticipates a more dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve, which is likely to further benefit gold [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold price has been in a bullish trend since last year, with recent adjustments likely leading to another upward movement [7]. - Key support levels to watch are around $3,270 and $3,220, which may present buying opportunities [7]. - The daily chart indicates that gold remains above the midline and 60-day moving averages, with bullish momentum prevailing despite some indicators suggesting a potential pullback [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, support levels are identified at $3,382 and $3,361, while resistance levels are at $3,407 and $3,418 [10]. - Silver support levels are at $38.35 and $38.15, with resistance at $39.00 and $39.20 [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses various economic indicators and market movements, highlighting the performance of major stock indices and commodities, as well as significant geopolitical developments affecting trade and investment [3][4][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.32%, S&P 500 rising 0.24%, and Nasdaq increasing by 0.2% [4]. - European indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.44% and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.11%, while the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 0.17% [4]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened higher but closed down 1.27%, with significant trading volume of 371.37 billion HKD [5]. - A-shares saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.76% and total trading volume reaching 3.17 trillion CNY, an increase of 486.5 billion CNY from the previous day [6]. Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased by 0.11%, closing at 3,397.46 USD per ounce, while silver saw a slight decrease of 0.04% [7]. - WTI crude oil rose by 0.79% to 63.65 USD per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.61% to 67.16 USD per barrel, driven by a reduction in U.S. oil inventories [7][10]. Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. administration is considering a 25% tariff reduction for India if it ceases oil purchases from Russia, indicating potential shifts in trade policies [10]. - The European Union is reportedly moving towards eliminating tariffs on U.S. industrial products, aligning with U.S. trade demands [10]. - The U.S. has resumed oil imports from Venezuela, marking a significant development in energy trade relations [12]. Corporate News - Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings but provided a somewhat subdued revenue outlook, announcing a 60 billion USD share buyback plan [12]. - The Chinese tech sector faced declines, with major companies like JD.com and electric vehicle manufacturers experiencing significant stock price drops [4][5].

Group 1 - The core issue is the rare public confrontation between the President and the Federal Reserve, with Trump labeling the Fed as the "biggest enemy" of the U.S. economy, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed [2][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial due to the inherent conflict between political short-term interests and the long-term goals of economic stability and inflation control [3] - Historical precedents show that political interference in monetary policy can lead to severe inflation, as seen in the 1970s, highlighting the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence [3] Group 2 - If Trump is re-elected in 2024, he may influence Fed decisions through appointments, potentially leading to aggressive interest rate cuts and subsequent inflation risks [4] - The politicalization of monetary policy could challenge the international status of the dollar, benefiting alternative assets like gold and cryptocurrencies [4] - The current conflict reflects the deepening political polarization in the U.S., necessitating investors to be cautious of "black swan" risks, including a decline in dollar credibility and sudden policy shifts [4]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% at 3,868 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.26%[18] - U.S. stocks experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.3% to 45,418 points and the S&P 500 rising 0.4% to 6,465 points[11] - European markets were weak, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.83% and the French CAC 40 dropping 1.7% due to political uncertainties[11] Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, increasing expectations for rate cuts[6] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September has risen to nearly 90%[31] - The Fed is expected to cut rates three times in 2025, each by 25 basis points[6] Commodity and Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index down 0.2% to 98.23, while gold prices rose, reflecting market uncertainty[28] - International oil prices fell after four consecutive days of gains, with WTI crude down 2.39% to $63.25 per barrel[27] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields saw a decline, with the 2-year yield down 4.5 basis points to 3.68% and the 10-year yield down 1.4 basis points to 4.26%[31] - The yield curve steepened as short-term bonds rallied amid strong demand in the 2-year auction[31] Corporate Highlights - Bilibili reported Q2 2025 revenue of 7.383 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates[9] - Workday's Q2 2026 revenue reached $2.348 billion, up 14% year-on-year, also surpassing expectations[9]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Trump regarding the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential legal battles expected to ensue [1] Market Reaction - Following the news of Trump's intention to dismiss Cook, the market exhibited a "knee-jerk reaction" similar to the previous incident involving Powell, leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, declines in U.S. stock futures, and a drop in the dollar index, while gold prices increased [1] - After Cook's legal response, market reactions stabilized, indicating that the outcome of the situation will depend on U.S. legal proceedings [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests that under Powell's leadership, the independence of the Federal Reserve is likely to be maintained, despite the ongoing political pressures [1] - Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting are seen as paving the way for a rate cut in September, with market expectations for further rate cuts increasing due to the Trump-Cook incident [1] - The company maintains its previous forecast that the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times within the year, each by 25 basis points [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market experienced a strong rebound, with spot gold prices surpassing $3360 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 2.22% [1] - Weak U.S. economic data released on August 1 led to a significant decline in the dollar and risk assets, raising market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - Concerns about a U.S. economic recession have resurfaced, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 48% to 80%, and nearly 100% for October [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - July non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 104,000, with prior months' data significantly revised down [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the previous month's 4.1% [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for July dropped to 48, indicating the fastest contraction in nine months, while the University of Michigan consumer confidence index also fell below expectations [1] Group 3: Gold Mining Companies Performance - Several gold mining companies reported strong performance in the first half of the year, with profit growth exceeding market expectations [3] - Five companies are expected to see profit growth between 40% and 65%, while three companies may experience growth between 84% and 191% [3] - The increase in profits is attributed to rising gold prices and increased production, leading to a positive cycle of growth for gold stocks [3] Group 4: Valuation and Investment Potential - As of June 30, major gold mining companies had an average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of only 12.5 times, compared to a historical average of about 20 times [3] - This indicates that gold stocks still possess high value and significant potential for valuation recovery, warranting close attention from investors [3]