Core Viewpoint - The loss of the dollar's reserve currency status is equated to losing a war, emphasizing its critical importance to the U.S. economy and global influence [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the strategic significance of the U.S. dollar in maintaining economic dominance [1] - It suggests that the dollar's reserve status is a key factor in the U.S.'s ability to exert influence over global financial systems [1] - The commentary reflects concerns about potential challenges to the dollar's supremacy from other currencies [1]

Group 1 - Recent U.S. economic data has raised concerns, leading to increased expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - In May, the core PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations with a 0.2% month-over-month increase, but consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.3%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [1] - Market data indicates a 27% probability for a rate cut in July and an 84% probability for a cut in September [1] Group 2 - The continuous decline of the U.S. dollar is influenced by the strong rise of the euro, which constitutes over 60% of the dollar index [2] - NATO's historic agreement to significantly increase defense spending has provided strong momentum to the European economy, further pushing the euro's appreciation [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on rate cuts, due to concerns over inflation from trade wars, has also contributed to the pressure on the dollar [2] Group 3 - President Trump has expressed strong dissatisfaction with Powell's decisions regarding interest rates, arguing that the delay in cuts has negatively impacted the U.S. economy [4] - The complex and fluctuating U.S. economic data has created significant uncertainty regarding the future value of the dollar, exacerbating its decline [4] - Powell has defended the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, asserting its continued strength despite underlying concerns about rising federal debt [4] Group 4 - The "Big Beautiful Bill" passed by the House is expected to significantly increase federal debt over the next decade, intensifying the U.S. debt crisis [5] - Powell has indicated that this legislation could pose a substantial threat to the dollar's status as a reserve currency [5]

Group 1 - Central banks are experiencing a record surge in gold accumulation, with 95% of surveyed banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level since the survey began eight years ago [1] - The proportion of central banks actively managing their gold reserves is projected to rise from 37% in 2024 to 44% in 2025, with risk management becoming the second-largest motivation for increasing gold holdings [4] - Since the end of 2022, international gold prices have doubled, with central bank purchases being a core driver of this long-term price increase [4] Group 2 - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for central banks, accounting for approximately 20%, while the share of dollar assets has declined to 46% [5] - Over half of emerging market central banks cite gold's "no political risk" as a key reason for increasing their holdings, with 78% emphasizing its "no default risk" [6] - Despite the cautious examination of the dollar and U.S. debt markets by central banks, there is no immediate risk of the dollar losing its dominant position [6]

斯蒂芬•米兰认为美元储备地位、美元高估和贸易逆差面临取舍，高估的美元让制造业 竞争力下降，但也维系"美元霸权"。如何改革逆差过大和制造业衰落？ 文丨陈稻田 特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬•米兰（Stephen Miran）在经济学博士毕业后立刻进入 华尔街做外汇交易，在今年2月份参议院的任职听证会上，他表示这段市场考验让他不再"书 生气"，而是开始"接地气"。在解释为什么他可以胜任总统经济顾问一职时，米兰表示他的普 通家庭背景让他会更关注普通人；而导师费尔德斯坦（曾经是里根的经济顾问）和米兰讨论 论文的时候总是要求说："假想我是参议员，你说的东西要让我能听懂"，米兰表示这个训练 也让他做好了和职业政治家交流的准备。2024年11月大选之前不久，还在一家投资基金担任 策略师的米兰写下了一篇策论文章，讨论特朗普胜选后可能以及应该的各种经济策略、取 舍、以及风险考量，其中详细讨论了名为"海湖庄园协议"的新国际金融体系。很自然，在他 获得重用后"海湖庄园协议"在美国内外都获得了相当的关注。 阅读更多内容请点击下方"阅读原文" （本文由FT中文网提供） 编者荐语： 日本经济新闻社与金融时报2015年11月合并为同一家 ...