更现实的是收益差：1 年期美元存款利率 2.8%-3.0%（人民币 1.45%），30 年期美债收益率 4.79%（中国国债 2.50%）。换美元不是偏好，是逐利的必然选 择。 先搞清楚：人民币短期升值是什么原因，是一个短暂的波动，还是经济总体回升的反应。应该说，年底人民币的升值，并不是一个主动的选择，它是被动的 —— 美联储降息预期拉低美元，不是中国经济内生力撑起来的。美联储为什么要降息，并不是与中国的相对关系发生了什么大的变化，主要是特朗普主张 制造业回流，要刺激经济的发展，而人民币升值，主要是受美联储降息的做的被动选择，事实，人民币相对欧元不是升值，而是贬值。 中长期看，贬值才是大趋势：M2 超 335 万亿接近美欧日总和，企业利润率下滑、政府负债率上升，货币超发稀释购买力是铁律。 国际机构喊 2026 年人民币汇率到 6.8，可为啥大家还想把人民币换成美元？ ...

说人话就是，央行降息是宏观决策，美联储降息是美国自己的事，但银行看的是资产负债表、票息存量和客户口袋的温度，它们不能按着新闻联播的节拍来 走，银行要活命，要收益，更要把风险装在看不见的口袋里。 外资银行能在降息窗口里不跟风，靠的是三样东西支撑一是手里还握着高票息存量债券和同业工具，二是额度管控和限额发售，控制规模避免风险敞口，三 是美元资产相对票息的吸引力仍在，特别是在全球利率普遍偏低的背景下，这三样组合成了它们的筹码。 你要说这叫市场理性，没错，但别忘了市场也喜欢营销，借着"降息窗口"做高息产品的热卖，既是抢客户，也是抢时间段——抓住了短期的套利窗口，谁管 未来会怎样。 对投资者来说，选择并不难也复杂，若你是真有留学或海外采购的美元需求，人民币升值是福音，结汇成本降低，别犹豫，结了就是赚了，简单粗暴；但若 你是以人民币计价的投资者，把美元理财当增值工具，那就得三思了，利率高却被汇差吃掉，所谓收益不过是镜中花水中月。 回头看看市场动作，外资行轮番上阵推高息定存，三个月、六个月、全年化利率动不动报出3.7%、3.8%，听得人心痒痒，仿佛回到了利率还高的时候，可 别急着把钱包献上。 第一个变量是人民币兑美元持续走 ...

Core Insights - The current interest rates for USD deposits are significantly higher than those for RMB, with some banks offering rates above 4%, attracting attention from depositors [2][3] - The fluctuation of interest rates is influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions, with recent cuts leading to a decrease in rates offered by many banks [3] - There is a notable disparity in interest rates among different banks, with smaller banks and foreign banks generally offering higher rates compared to state-owned banks [3][4] Interest Rate Trends - Recently, some city commercial banks offered rates above 4%, but these have dropped to around 2.5% within a couple of months due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [3] - The stability of interest rates from smaller banks is questionable, as they previously raised rates to attract deposits but are now reducing them due to cost pressures [3] Currency Exchange Risks - Depositors are cautioned about the risks associated with currency exchange, as fluctuations in exchange rates can negate the benefits of higher interest rates [2][4] - There are limitations on currency exchange quotas, which can restrict the ability to convert funds when needed [3] Investment Considerations - While the allure of a 4.2% interest rate is strong, it is not guaranteed that all depositors will benefit, and potential investors should assess their tolerance for exchange rate volatility [4] - It is suggested that individuals consider the overall stability of their investments rather than solely focusing on interest rates [4]