在美联储量化紧缩政策和美国财政因素等影响下，2025年以来美国货币市场流动性从相对宽裕逐渐走向 阶段性紧张。展望后市，引发美元流动性紧张的因素正在向着改善方向发展。 作者 | 谢亚轩 招商证券研发中心负责人 作者 | 刘亚欣 招商证券研发中心高级分析师 来源 |《中国外汇》2025年第23期 近期，美国货币市场流动性呈现紧张态势，引发市场关注。笔者对近期美元流动性紧张的表现、原因进 行分析，并对其未来形势进行展望。 近期美元流动性呈现紧张态势 2025年以来美国货币市场流动性从相对宽裕逐渐走向阶段性紧张，主要体现为美国回购市场波动性和融 资成本边际上升。2025年美联储仍处于降息周期之中，分别于9月、10月各降息25个基点（BP），显示 总量货币政策仍致力于推动货币市场利率下行。但是，有迹象显示美国回购市场流动性从宽裕逐渐转向 紧张，这在2025年上半年主要体现为月末回购利率波动性的上升等。9月以来，紧张局面加剧，主要反 映为综合反映美国回购市场利率水平的担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）开始持续高于有效联邦基金利率 （EFFR）。由于回购市场的交易主体覆盖更为广泛，且流动性紧张时期机构对担保融资需求的上升更 为显 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: "Precious Metals Weekly Report (AU, AG): Precious metals gradually stabilize and may continue to build a volatile platform" [1] - Report date: November 10, 2025 - Core view: In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain range - bound, but there is still upward potential in the long term. The underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation by buying on dips [5] Group 2: Market and Influencing Factors - Market performance last week: Precious metals generally stabilized and built a volatile platform. In the first half of the week, the precious metal prices were affected by the rising US dollar index and the Fed's cautious attitude towards a December rate cut. Later, the prices rebounded due to increased market uncertainty and the alleviation of US dollar liquidity tensions [3] - Key influencing factors: The US dollar index breaking through 100, the Fed's attitude towards a December rate cut, the US employment market situation, consumer confidence, the US government shutdown, and the potential impact of Trump's tariff rulings [3][5] Group 3: Data Tracking Gold - related data - London spot gold: $4000.289/ounce, down $2.401 (- 0.06%) from the previous period [4] - Shanghai gold futures: 921.26 yuan/gram, down 0.66 yuan (- 0.07%) from the previous period [4] - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings: 1042.06 tons, up 2.86 tons (0.28%) from the previous period [4] Silver - related data - London spot silver: $48.3260/ounce, down $0.3302 (- 0.68%) from the previous period [4] - Shanghai silver futures: 11484 yuan/kg, up 43 yuan (0.38%) from the previous period [4] - Silver SLV - ETF holdings: 15089 tons, down 101 tons (- 0.67%) from the previous period [4] Group 4: Outlook and Strategy - Short - term outlook: Precious metal prices are expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff rulings [5] - Long - term outlook: The precious metals bull market's underlying logic remains solid. The continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed's rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued central bank gold purchases will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5] - Strategy: It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation by buying on dips [5] Group 5: Central Bank Gold Purchases - China's central bank: Increased gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month. As of the end of October, China's gold reserves were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) [89] - Global central banks: Net gold purchases of about 633.6 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. The third - quarter purchases increased by 27.85% quarter - on - quarter to 219.9 tons [89]

比特币周一暴跌后，美股也上演"黑色星期二"，直接波及今日的亚太股市，日韩股市一度闪崩4%，港A股同样跳空低开。 但午后A股上演大反攻，储能、新能源方向领涨，电工电网题材掀涨停潮，光伏、锂电池概念股爆发。 发生了什么？ 纵观全市场，大家普遍认为全球股市巨震背后的导火索主要是"美元流动性紧张"+科技股估值过高、"大空头"做空Palantir、英伟达等。 但随着美国政府关门僵局开始出现松动迹象+日韩股市探底回升，叠加国内市场流动性宽松+本身估值水平不高，港A股午后直线拉升。 1 著名大空头80%仓位做空美国科技股 | 证券代码 | 公司名称 | 持合占比 | 持仓市值(亿美元) | 持有股数(股) | 软工学历史 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PLTR PUT | PALANTIR/PUT | 66.04% | 91210.0 | 5000000 | 5000000 (##) | | NVDA PUT | 英伟达/PUT | 13.51% | 18658.0 | 1000000 | 1000000 (新进) | | PFE CALL | 辉瑞/CALL | 11 ...