Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown a strong rebound, reaching historical highs and closing positively for the ninth consecutive week, with future movements dependent on the trend line resistance level [1][3]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $4004.70, hitting a low of $4003.62 before rebounding to a high of $4378.91, ultimately closing at $4246.89, marking a weekly increase of $234.26 or 5.83% from the previous week's close of $4012.63 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, and rising geopolitical tensions have contributed to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The recent surge in gold prices has also been influenced by significant sell-offs as prices approached key resistance levels, alongside a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields [3][5]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience volatility, with potential adjustments to $4000 or $3800 if resistance is encountered. Key events to watch include the meeting between Trump and Chinese leaders and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting at the end of October [3][5]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains, supported by central bank gold purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks, despite short-term concerns about market corrections [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are encountering resistance at the upper trend channel, with a potential for further upward movement if the resistance is broken. However, a significant adjustment may be on the horizon, as historical data suggests that gold has never achieved ten consecutive weeks of gains [8][10]. - Daily charts show a bearish reversal pattern, indicating a possible short-term decline unless prices recover from recent losses [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4215 and $4160, while resistance levels are at $4285 and $4333. For silver, support is at $51.20 and $49.85, with resistance at $52.35 and $53.00 [10].

Group 1: Global Oil Production Trends - The U.S. daily oil production reached a historic high of 13.58 million barrels, with Texas contributing 5.72 million barrels, accounting for nearly 40% of total U.S. production [2] - Russia maintained an oil production level of 250 million tons in the first half of 2025, with a daily output of 9.5 million barrels, despite a 3.5% decline compared to the previous year [3] - China's domestic crude oil production was approximately 10.847 million tons in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [4] Group 2: Key Players in the Oil Industry - The three major Chinese state-owned enterprises—PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC—dominate domestic oil extraction, with PetroChina producing 395.2 million barrels and Sinopec achieving a total oil and gas output of 126 million barrels in the first half of 2025 [8] - Rosneft, the largest oil company in Russia, reported a liquid hydrocarbon production of 89.3 million tons in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Dynamics and Market Implications - The global oil market is characterized by "supply looseness and weak demand," with predictions of an average daily change in global crude oil inventory of 301,600 barrels in 2025 [6] - China’s oil imports reached 280 million tons in the first half of 2025, with a high dependency rate of 72.1% on foreign oil [6] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with 47% of Russia's crude oil exports directed to China, and energy trade between China and Russia expected to exceed $300 billion by 2025 [9]